The Nats are bringing in Jesse Winkler and... that's fine? On the surface maybe but dig even a little bit and it becomes pretty questionable.
Winkler is a lefty that plays corner OF and has power. In a sense he's trying to fill in the same spot Gallo is trying. The Nats are really doubling down trying to get a value lefty power bat. (I will presume it's because they plan to spend money on arms after 2024. Let's hope.) This is because most of their kids are RH - Crews, House, Morales. If Wood, the main power lefty, doesn't come in fast than this would be an obvious hole.
Winkler is an above average bat (.270 / .374 / .463 career line before last year) but unlike the sneaky athletic Gallo, Winkler is a statue struggling on D and hurting you on the basepaths. He's also EXTREMELY prone to injury failing to play a full season... well ever. Topping out at 136 games with Seattle in 2022 he's played 113, 110 , 89, 61, and 54 major league games excluding his rookie season and the COVID year. Injuries include shoulder, neck, leg, and back problems.
Last year was the 61 game season (though yes he did play 27 minor league games). He showed he was still good in AAA hitting over .300 but in the majors... well let's just go to his wiki page.
In the 2023 regular season, Winker batted .199/.320/.247 in 166 at bats with one home run, 23 RBIs, and 51 strikeouts with the Brewers, with isolated power of .048.[36] He was in the bottom 1% of all major league players in speed, had career lows in his exit velocity (86.8 mph) and hard hit percentage (31.9%), and had a career-high strikeout percentage (25.9%).[41]
Ouch.
I suppose any minor league contract is whatever but for someone constantly injured to still be injured and to have a terrible season with the bat and to give you nothing else. Well I suppose that's why no one else signed him. It seems like a poor player for the Nats to bet on to be help for the future, if that's indeed what they are doing, simply because the injury history suggests you can't rely on that at all. For a team gambling on 2024 and trying to catch lightning in a bottle Winkler might make sense, but that's far from the Nats. He's best seen then as potential trade bait but again... anyone could have had him for nothing and didn't want him. The return on Winkler will be light.
It's a minor league move. It can be bad and that is fine because it doesn't matter. That's kind of where I put this. Betting a penny on the Nats winning the World Series in 2024. You are going to lose that penny but hey, it's a penny.
As long as Winkler doesn't somehow block the path of a kid ready to play in AAA or be moved up to the majors I can't really complain.
Given that he's a garbage defender, it's more likely that if he makes the team it's as a DH, either with Menesnes moving to first or by recovering his hitting stroke in Spring Training (since Menesnes is a good story, but if he's going to put up a 100-ish WRC+ there's no particular point in keeping him around).
ReplyDeleteIn a perfect world, he platoons with Garrett at DH while Gallo and Thomas play the OF corners. In a predictable world, he's off the team in ST.
The Nats need offense. Until last year Winker provided offense (if little else) and I've read that his struggles last season were caused by a cervical strain and back spasms. He just turned 30, so he's not yet old even in baseball terms. In the unlikely event that he is/stays healthy, he's a solid rebound candidate. If he doesn't, it's a minor league deal so there's little cost.
ReplyDeleteI have zero expectations for Winker, but it's a minor league deal. They can't really be all that questionable.
Until / unless he gets a spot on the 40, there's no downside.
ReplyDeleteI know there's a little bit of scarcity caused by the smaller MiLB rosters, but that's really barely a thing. You hand out NRIs for nothing. It could be a favor to an old coach or an agent. It could be for clubhouse reasons. It could be a million things or nothing at all.
It just doesn't matter and won't prevent - for budget reasons or playing time reasons or roster space - any improvement that the team would otherwise contemplate.
(Hilariously, Roster Resource has Winker making the starting roster and pushing Nunez off the bench to AAA, which would of course send him back to Miami. I'd like to put a lot of money on that sequence of events not happening.)
I don't hate the move. Minors contract for a guy that has shown he can hit when healthy? Why not take the gamble and throw some a couple chips on green? Very likely will amount to nothing, but you also spent nothing.
ReplyDeleteThe only reason to "hate" the move is that it's yet another signal that the Nats plan to do the absolute bare minimum to put a product on the field until the young guys are ready. Which will make watching this season tough given they need to be a well above average offense to compensate for the rotation in its current state
It’s really frustrating. I’m worried they’ll operate like the old Marlins if the Lerners don’t sell to someone else.
DeleteMaybe change in O’s leadership leads to resolution on the TV situation though? I dunno, doesn’t feel like much to be optimistic about headed into the season except seeing more of these young guys (hopefully) grow.