I wonder how far down you go before you hit a Nat. I also wonder if it's better than the Rockies' or Oakland's best player.
TBF - Top 100 is pretty damn good. Evenly distributed it would be the best three players from each team. The lowest starting pitcher on this list is Walker Buehler at 100. He had an injury riddled 2023 but still threw to a 4.00 ERA and was coming off a 200IP 3.16 FIP 4th in the Cy Young year. The lowest relief pitcher on the list was Devin Williams at 99. He was a dominant closer in 2023 - 36 saves and a 1.53 ERA. The lowest position player (not a catcher) on the list was Christian Yelich who hit .278 / .370 / .447 with 19 homers. Yes Lane Thomas hit 10 more homers. He also never walked and doesn't have a history of being anything more than he just was.
I'd imagine though Lane Thomas IS the best player on the Nats.
Let's think...
Relief pitching wise Finnegan and Harvey are pretty good but pretty good relievers don't make it very far in Top X player lists. You see Devin Williams was GREAT and he was 99 and on par with Yelich. We can dismiss them.
Starting pitching wise it's either Gray or Gore depending on what you think but if Buehler and Merril Kelly are at the bottom of this list Gore and Gray would be hard pressed to get into the Top 200. We'll leave them for a while.
Position player Lane is the easy choice with the question being what do you think of Ruiz and Abrams. I do think they are probably in that Top 200 group or at least there's an argument but without history to back them up I'm going to have to say Lane is an easy pick for being better.
Ok Lane isn't that much worse than Yelich. Age is on his side for one, but the fielding woes aren't helping. I figure he gets into the Top 150. I'm not sure if that's 110 side or 140 side though but we can go to the A's and Rockies now to see if that matters.
The Athletics do not have a lights-out reliever. Their best hitter is not clear. It could be Zak Gelof, who is a big power bat who strikes out a bunch. Not a great fielder but at 23 can still do something. It might be Brent Rooker who was a better bat than Thomas last year but a pure DH. Their best pitcher is JP Sears who is basically Gray and Gore. I like Thomas more than Sears or Rooker but T'm not convinced I'd have Thomas above Gelof who could explode this year. Even if he doesn't I'd put him at a wash with Thomas. So not definitely better top player than the A's.
The Rockies do not have a lights-out reliever. Their best hitter is Ryan McMahon. He's a solid fielder and his hitting stats are ok but that's in Coors. Taking that into account - no Lane is better. Their best pitcher is Kyle Freeland a home town boy who up until last year always managed to pitch average in that park. That's pretty impressive. Still that strike out rate has never been good. Not even in minors. It's kind of like he's an ideal Coors pitcher with control and a lot of sinking pitches that avoid the homers but are hits. Anyway, I think I like Thomas better coming off of last year. Better top player than the Rockies!
FLAGS FLY FOREVER
Fangraphs wrote an article along vaguely similar lines a week ago: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-are-this-years-worst-teams-so-bad/
ReplyDeleteTl;dr: The Nats have no one in the top 200 and only 2 in the top 300 (Abrams and Gore; no mention of Thomas, stragely), less than both Oakland and Colorado.
Look in the rear view mirror. There's 4 in the top 100 who played for the Nats --- 3 are in Philly.
ReplyDeleteThe projections hate Thomas - probably because he's older - he's fallen out of the "can improve" stage into the "we're just weighted averaging his last few years". If you think he's really improved (I do) he's a 100-150 player.
ReplyDelete@nattydread. Your observation was provocative, but not sure it is meaningful. I didn't look at the list, but I am assuming the reference is to Harper, Turner, Scherzer, and Soto. Schwarber is probably in the 100 to 150 range.
ReplyDeleteSchwarber is 31 and has 2 more seasons (including this one) at $20 million (including this one). Scherzer is past 39 and will earn $43 million this year. Harper is 31 and has 8 more seasons (including this one) at $27.5 million per year. Turner is almost 31 and has 10 more seasons including this year at $27.2 million. Soto is the one to wish to have back and at least in theory we can bid for his services next winter.
I would love to have the Phillies trio this year, maybe next year. But they are going to be on the books for a long, long time...needing to defy the downward curve of age. For the longer-term, I am quite happy where we are and eagerly look forward to seeing more of our top 100 prospects move up to being top 100 players. .
Thomas also has barely done it, they tend not to overrate one good year. He's also an average corner outfielder and look what an older Rosario got in his Nats deal.
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