James Wood had four hits yesterday including his first homer, and oh yes, his second homer of the season. He's currently hitting .441 / .558 / .794 in AAA and while that would obviously cool down given time, it's also obvious he can handle AAA pitching and is ready for the majors
Exhibit 1 is his stats. Along with the above, in 2023 after some struggles in July and August, hit .353 / .421 / .569 in September.
Exhibit 2 is his Ks. The only real question about Wood is did he strike out too much. Not that it looked like that would keep him from being a good play but it could limit his ceiling in the majors. While last year he K'd 20 times in 57 PA (like 35%) in that September, right now he's at 7 in 43 PA (like 18%). The last thing you could use to hold him back has been overcome.
Exhibit 3 is his Spring Training. If you need to use it in a tie-breaker, not sure which way to go fashion (the only way to use these stats) he literally led all players in OPS in Spring.
There's nothing more to say. He's ready.
I've always been highest on Wood. This isn't some crazy prescience. He did crazy good at extremely young ages for his level. I have my doubts on whether he will be so good he can just replace Soto (Soto at 21 1/2 put up a .351 / .490! / .695 line in the pandemic season) but as I've noted before "just regular star" is fine. Wood doesn't need to be 1st ballot HoF potential.
There is nothing for Wood to gain being in the minors. If he's a star this team... well it still can't compete for a playoff spot but it could start to plan around yes this guy is a star.
Make the move Nats.
I can never keep track but when is the magic date of service time manipulation ending?
ReplyDelete@Conor - The hard date was yesterday, but with the new rules you still lose the extra year if they are top 2 in ROY voting. Which means it's probably more realistically June 1st or so. (And even later if you want Wood to take a run at a PPI pick next year, which would be just the kind of unintended consequence that seems to always screw the players.)
ReplyDelete@Hatper - He also had a pretty spectacular diving catch in CF. It certainly looks like he's taken a significant step forward from last season, and he was already pretty good. I think it's almost certain that he would immediately be our best outfielder, and if the team was looking for certain things before promoting him, I can't imagine any boxes unchecked.
But it's also been fewer than 50 PAs this season. I don't believe his development would be hurt by another month or two in AAA. Would it be helped? I don't know - but the team has way more information than I do, and I have to allow for that, even if I'm also clear eyed about their competing incentives.
We'll probably see him in 6 weeks, and it will probably be service time bullshit, but there's no way to know for sure.
Look at it this way - if we wait 6 more weeks this year, then we get him for all of 2030 before he makes a zillion in Philly.
ReplyDelete@Harper - can you weigh on on Fredericksburg's performance? There sure are a lot of 24-year-olds there. Are they blocked by others?
ReplyDeleteWhat's more likely in the event of an injury to the law firm of Rosario, Thomas, Winker, and Young:
ReplyDelete1) Ildemaro everyday OF starter
2) James Wood everyday OF starter
Maybe this is a Rizzo negotiating tactic: Sign up for nine years, and you can play in the Bigs by tomorrow evening.
ReplyDeleteConor / Anon - for keeping him under control for an extra year I though the date was April 17th. But regardless "around now" but yeah ROY rules might change that. If you are unfamiliar
ReplyDelete1) If he's up on OD and is a top ROY votegetter the Nats get a pick
2) If he's up after whatever this April date is the Nats get a year
2a) unless he is a top ROY vote getter and the Nats lose the year
so the play is, if you aren't going to have him up OD, to have him up late enough he can't accrue ROY votes so you don't lose the year. That is unless you are real jerks and have him up so late he's not even eligible for ROY so he can be eligible the following year and maybe get you a pick then.
Anon - I don't ever think it hurts anyone to be down in AAA but I think players should be up when they should be up. I think worrying about 6-7 years down the road is a fools game. Too much changes between now and then.
Kevin - two series is too little to say anything yet. Come back in two more series. THe 24yos aren't blocked by anyone I don't think. Just low or no draft picks that you'd sit there first.
ocw5000 - right now... I guess Ildemaro. We'll know soon for sure though because if Wood keeps hitting and doesn't get called up, an injury wouldn't change that.
Anon @10:14 - I'd say I'd wait.
Didn’t watch the game yesterday, but anyone else scratching their head as to why Irvin was pulled after 6 innings of one run ball having only thrown 74 pitches?
ReplyDeleteI am reasonably sure Harper (along with a strong majority of Nats fans) will be bitterly denouncing the Nationals for being idiots if they end up "unnecessarily losing a year of control over a star player like Wood".
ReplyDeleteSure, in one sense it would be a great problem to have (because it would mean Wood performing at high sustained level punching through to a top-2 RoY in a year where the normal rookie competition is augmented by "veteran rookies" like Yamamoto, Imanaga and Jung-Hoo Lee.
But since the NextNats window will hopefully still be wide open in 2030 having team control over a star player matters a lot more in 2030 than a year like 2024. A fact which Harper and other commentators will no doubt be hammering over the Nats heads *in 2029-30* if Wood comes up in 2024 and blazes his way to a top-2 RoY place.
Yes the Nats have historically been willing to bring up teenagers (it remains gobsmacking that the two players tied for second place on the "most HR hit as teenagers in MLB history" list are Nationals--Soto and Harper, of course). But both Soto and Harper were brought up by Nats teams (1) trying to "win NOW" in 2012/18 and (2) strafed by injuries (Harper was OPSing .690 in AAA when brought up; Soto had a princely eight (8) games at AA when brought up as the #8 option on the MLB LF depth chart because #1-7 were all hurt or covering OTHER positions for hurt players).
Having witnessed enough blogs and comments makes me reasonably confident "Free James Wood" cries would become "What IDIOTS the Nationals were to lose a year of James Wood for 2024!" cries in just a few short years if Wood gets off to a blazing MLB start.
If the Nats choose to bring Wood up in August (retaining his rookie eligibility for 2025) they could easily pitch that to Wood as a win-win if he makes Top 2 RoY in 2025: goes to free agency at same time as if he was a May callup in 2024 *and* the team would net a draft pick.
@OlePBN. I don’t watch either but I am sure the answer is because our manager is a dolt.
ReplyDelete@OlePBN — I did watch the game, and the announcers speculated that Irvin was pulled because there were two lefties due up in the 7th (Muncy and Outman), and Irvin had been hit much harder by lefties. Both Muncy and Outman had doubles off of Irvin earlier in the game, and Ohtani had a bunch of line drive singles.
ReplyDelete