Things you can do :
Say Nick Senzel is a player with some pedigree and talent so perhaps he can be a useful major leaguer. Let's see how his current limited run holds up for another month and look at it closely then.
Things you can't do :
SEE! THESE GAMES PROVE NICK SENZEL IS A STAR!!!!
Not that anyone was doing that BUT there was some "SEE! DAVEY IS A GOOD MANAGER!" which... I mean do we have to go over 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2022 again? It's possible he's a good playoff manager. Even if I think the 2019 was far more luck (Counsel making a bad choice with Hader, coming about 3 feet from losing to the Dodgers or the Astros) I'll concdede that it's possible. Now, IT WOULD BE HARD TO KNOW BECAUSE HE NEVER LED A STAR LADEN TEAM TO THE PLAYOFFS AGAIN, but again possible he has that knack. But he's been secretly good and I don't know, sandbagging nearly every other season in his career so the Nats would lose more for fun and profit, I guess. No. That's being oblivious
You can say managers don't matter. You can say Davey might be learning and maybe is improving from terrible. But you can't look at .500 ball in less than 40 games in a down NL season and say he's good. I'm drawing lines here.
HA! I thought that would provoke a response.
ReplyDeleteTo be clear, I wasn't saying he's a good manager. I'm in the camp that managers don't usually matter that much. And while I agreed with your preseason reasoning that Davey's eventual win totals usually falling short of expectations directionally supported him being bad, it's a pretty weak signal given all the noise.
Now, in an argument about replacing or retaining Davey, "not provably bad" is hardly praise, but given that this now looks to be the second year in a row that the team will exceed expectations, I think my prior is shifting back to "fine, it doesn't matter" and away from "probably bad".
2018 - Bad
2019 - Fair to slightly good (I think a lot folks grade that season as 'good' because of the obvious, but I blame him for the start too.)
2020 - Very bad (but weird year)
2021 - Very bad
2022 - Bad
2023 - Good
2024 - Looking likely to be good. (Even if we fall off this pace, which we likely will, and finish in the low 70s, that's still 10+ wins over your projections.)
So maybe he's improving, maybe it's all be noise and never mattered, and maybe he's still bad but has gotten really lucky for a couple seasons. But, barring a huge collapse this season down under 65 wins, I'm not sure how you empirically make the case that he's likely to harm the team in 2025.
I view managers the same way that Earl Weaver did--as HR types. The players respect him; Rizzo respects him; nobody seems sullen. What's not to like?
ReplyDeleteYeah 95% of that job is behind-the-scenes. The mental stuff and coaching up in-between games matters, the players aren’t soulless automatons…only bloggers are.
DeleteI don't consider either 2021 or 2022 to be 'bad' from a managing perspective. Davey made a somewhat unorthodox move (at least against traditional thinking) to put Schwarber at leadoff. At first, it looked like it didn't work (though he hit at least one, if not multiple walkoffs). But then June came around, and Schwarber caught absolute fire. He was one of the most exciting players in the game that month.
ReplyDeleteThe team was in playoff contention. Then July hits, and I think Schwarber and Turner both got hurt. The team hit a massive slide, and decided to be sellers rather than buyers. Remember, the whole plan in 2021 (pitching-wise), was the re-emergence of
'The Big Three' (Scherzer, Stras, and Corbin), and for Brad Hand to be a lockdown closer. Scherzer was as advertised, but Stras never really made it back, and Corbin didn't bounce back from a disappointing 2020 season. Hand was far from a lockdown closer.
Then, after the massive sell off, the team was barren of talent for the rest of 2021 and all of 2022. Can't really blame Davey for that.
Now, it feels like there's also some 'talking past each other' going on. There's a gap between 'SEE! DAVEY'S A GOOD MANAGER' and 'Davey is a bad manager, and deserves to be fired'. I did point out in a previous comment that Davey's likely to have the team finish above pre-season expectations for the 2nd year in a row. That doesn't make him 'GOOD'.
But it does cut against the 'Davey should have been fired' narrative. The time to fire him, if any, was after the 2022 season. But I'm not sure other managers who were available would have done much better that season with that team.
And so the challenge remains: if you fire Davey, what manager is objectively, clearly better than Davey, and is A) Available and B) Willing to manage the Nats.
It's only 40 games, but so far, I'm OK with the Nats sticking with Davey. After all the manager turnover they've had, it's nice to see him continuity.
Okay. I said he was in the running for manager of the year. Harper says this is something we can't do.
ReplyDeleteTo be clear, I've never been a super pro- or and anti- DM guy. His 'Let's go 1-0' shtick was clever in the beginning but no longer. I won't argue about his previous performances. The team was bad.
Also, I won't use the subjective "guys love him and he's a super clubhouse motivator" argument. No data points. But he does seem to have above average rapport with players and coaches and it counts for something.
However, his 2024 pinch hit choices have been superb and have won a couple games. His line up arrangements are good. Use of Williams is strategic. His use of the bullpen is good --- and has probably added a few wins. He stuck with Rosario, and that choice has proved to be wise -- he does seem to be able to measure a players potential.
So, okay, I won't run him for manager for the year any more. Admiration of the 2024 job he's doing, from my watching games, is due.
When it comes to DM, I think Anon 1:36 said it best. There are no useful data points to judge a manager other than W/L, which has a lot of peripheral factors beyond a manager’s control and must be taken with a grain of salt.
ReplyDeleteDo the players complain about him? Has he lost the clubhouse? Have the media relentless blasted him for in-game decisions? And does he respond with “he’s our 8th inning guy”? Is he learning from those mistakes? Has our GM given him a top 5 payroll roster that’s exploding with stars and has he failed to deliver on a “where’s my ring?” Spring Training prediction?
No. The answer is no to all of those.
Is DM bad? I don’t think so. Is DM great? Probably not. Could be do a whole lot worse? YES. We’ve actually done a lot worse before, lest people forget (my namesake).
Players seem to like playing for DM and we’re not expected to contend this year, so who cares? One thing I’ll defend: he (and his coaching staff) do seem to be getting the most out of what he is given.
I was taught that the mark of a good manager (in a general business sense) was hiring the best people and giving them the ability to do their job well. Lots of things matter, but it starts with hiring the right people.
ReplyDeleteSo, who gets credit for giving the ever-upbeat Parra a central on-field role--first base coach on a team that wants to steal bases? Mike or Davey?
And who gets credit for deciding there should be a pitching coach focused on pitch strategy rather than technique or mechanics? Then hires Doolittle, the smartest and most strategic pitcher who has passed through DC over the last dozen years? Mike or Davey?
@SG - I think comparing to more general HR managing is pretty instructive. Think about organizations where you've all worked. Do even pretty knowledgable and interested outsiders really know who the good managers are? Would you trust the opinions of clients or vendors or investors or even the board? I just don't think so.
ReplyDeleteIn game tactics is such a small part of the manager's impact, but it's all we can see. That's why Harper's "just compare wins to projections" is pretty compelling; that by definition will include everything. The downside is that, in any given season, the standard deviation of expected wins is likely something like 10, so you either need very large or very consistent patterns to make anything of it.
Just a reminder that Harper wrote a blog in AUGUST, 2019 saying that the NATS should fire Martinez. It was endorsed by most of his readers.
ReplyDeleteI was probably one of those readers in 2019 calling for his head. At the time his teams were consistently underperforming (well team and a half given it was year 2). Even a year or two ago I would've been echoing that sentiment. But now, I actually think he's earned his chance to manage into the next window. Whether that's because he's improved or he's gotten lucky or whatever, I don't know, but if we judge expectations vs actual performance, the team is doing better than they "should" and that points to him being a better manager than we all thought.
ReplyDelete@Anon at 10:13 do you have a link for that? I don’t remember Harper making that claim in August 2019.
ReplyDeleteCertainly in May 2019 almost all of us thought Davey should be fired. But by August, the team had turned around and was doing well enough to be buyers at the deadline (though they didn’t make any big trades).
It’s a big deal to be a deadline buyer when you start the season 19-31 (or whatever it was)
I sure didn't think Davey should be fired in August 2019. That team started the season with a handful of crucial injuries, and once Trey Turner came back, they went 86-44 for the next 130 games, which is pretty insane. Everyone talks about the 2019 nats as if they were a middling team who had a hot streak, but that's 130 games of serious dominance.
ReplyDeleteNever been a DM cheerleader. After a disastrous 2018 (go back and look at that roster) and a horrendous start to 2019, I was definitely in the "fire Davy" camp. Once the team started rebuilding, well, i didn't care as much. The players tend to enjoy playing for him and he doesn't cause much drama or constantly make incompetent decisions. Don't fire him unless you have an actual plan to replace him with something better.
ReplyDeleteTo G Craccka X
ReplyDeleteThe actual date of the blog was July 2, 2019. Harper has a list of all his posts. Pick year 2019 and scroll back to July 2. His solution to the question he posed in Paragraph 1 was a two word Paragraph 2. "Fire Davey."
@Anon 656
ReplyDeleteJust reread that post and Harper actually nails it. 2018 was a huge disappointment. Being back up to .500 in July 2019 was actually a considerable disappointment. If the Nats didn't blow the doors off to get to the mid 90s in the regular season or make it to the WS, he wanted Davey gone. Otherwise, he can stay. That's perfectly fair.
Well, you'll recall that we hit those marks, and Harper backed off. Not bought around to Davey being good, but backed off calling for him to be fired.
But then we're bad in 2020, despite expecting to compete. (But it's covid.) And then we're bad in 2021, despite expecting to compete (but injuries). And then we're awful instead of bad in 2022 (no excuses - that was a rough year). And Harper is back to wanting Davey gone. Fair.
But now we're through another 200 games and those 200 are telling a different story. The numbers don't add up to firing Davey anymore. It's time to back off again and give Davey at least through the end of next year.
Some anecdotal evidence, gotta make ya smile…
ReplyDeleteMay 2: Eddie Rosario hitting .086 on the season.
May 3: “It’s early,” said manager Dave Martinez. “You’ve got to give him a chance, you really do. I’m not going to sit him down yet right now. He’s got to go out there and play. … I’ve seen him play before. This kid can hit. He can put you on his shoulders.”
Since May 3: Rosario is hitting .444 (8-18 with two home runs).
Now you could judge DM negatively all same: what about the previous 70 AB that he kept trotting Rosario out there, likely costing the team a few wins. But as a manager, if you are supposed to “manage” clubhouse culture, then the above has a ripple effect to the rest of the locker room. Tough to quantify, but it cannot be discounted.
But if you look close enough, little things like this become more apparent—and dare I say more valuable with regards to DM’s evaluation.
Davey’s job is to a) keep his players happy and productive, b) choose when to change pitchers/pinch hitters, c) (maybe) choose lineups etc. if I’m missing anything else let me know.
ReplyDeleteJob a) is the most important and he seems to do that well. At least the happy players part. Productive? Evidence is mixed, and the responsibility for that one is shared among the whole staff anyway.
Job b) and c) are arguably less important over a 162 game season, but still important to a point. Davey has historically been worse at this, but may be getting better?
Given he does a decent job it seems of keeping his guys happy and keeping morale up when times are bad etc., preventing trouble among players, and keeping good relations with his coaches/GM etc (remember Riggleman?), then I think it makes sense to keep him. Better the devil you know. Unless you have an option of a proven, innovative, top level candidate who also has a track record of good clubhouse dynamics, then really why take a risk on some other guy who’s been fired from some other job?
I have always been a supporter or DM. I think he’s cheesy as h*ll, but whatever the players always seem to be happy and playing hard. He doesn’t have a bunch of feuding and fighting, and there’s little to no locker room drama. He doesn’t get caught in cheating scandals and he is never controversial. The players seem to have a degree of accountability. Overall I think these are the areas he impacts and does well. His bullpen management is subpar, and I wish he would recognize this and let his pitching coach manage this. I have always said keep him unless there’s a glaring reason to fire him.
ReplyDeleteIf you have high confidence you can replace DM with someone better (or the same and cheaper), you obviously don't hesitate. How many available coaches are clearly better? Probably would need a inherently risky novice to have the upside of being great.
ReplyDeleteYou can't tell me what to do, you're not the boss of me!
ReplyDeleteI also love how the conversation's 'This young team is exceeding expectations...should they fire the manager?!?!'