The Mariners are a team that rely on good pitching. When they don't get it (see Kirby on Friday), they lose. That's the break the Nats got. Then they won a close game and won the series.Solid work. Now they are facing a Braves team that might be on a psychological break, having lost their best player Ronald Acuna for the year. The funny thing is they'd been doing just fine with Acuna underperforming - the line-up is deep. But losing a guy like him when you have championship hopes and you are looking up at the biggest divisional gap in baseball can rattle you. Take advantage.
The big other news was the Robles DFA. The team and him have never quite seen eye to eye for some reason. He had four years as basically as starter and provided great defense early on but couldn't keep up the hitting enough. Eventually the glove work slowed down but miraculously he started extremely hot last year before getting hurt. Is this a problem of motivation or talent? If another team picks up Robles, and they should because that questions is out there, then we'll find out. He's still only JUST 27 (birthday was last week) so there's no reason he should be much worse as a fielder. Fix that and a team has maybe at least got a late D replacement.
Probably the biggest negative of Robles' time with the Nats was the fact that his promise pushed them to move on from MAT. A top fielding that no one really thought would hit enough to become a star despite A++ CF defense. Turns out the Nats were mostly right but he did hit enough to make him a positive player and have his overall value lap Robles' since Robles' rookie year.
In other news we hit Memorial Day weekend so it's time to take what we see seriously for everyone who's been up since the beginning of the year. The good : Winker, Williams, Gore, Jake Irvin, and the top 4 bullpen guys. The bad : Meneses, Corbin. There are a few more baddies at the plate likely to come but they haven't played enough yet. That's why this lop-sided result hasn't shown in the record. BUT if those aren't real...
Defense numbers can be a bit variable from year to year. But the thing that puzzles me about Robles is the power. Here’s a guy that hit 17 HRs in 2019 in about 600 or so PAs. In the roughly 1,100 PAs since, he’s hit 11.
ReplyDeleteI would also include Mitchell Parker in the good. Went from being basically on no one’s radar to having a decent rookie season so far. Due for regression, for sure, but he might be a regular in the rotation in future years
Agree with GCX on Parker. I think Harper filtered out anyone who has missed any time, but Parker only missed two starts so I think his small sample size is in the same ballpark as the full season guys. And of course, he's thrown quite a bit more innings than the relievers. So, with all the usual caveats, he's solidly in my "good" list.
ReplyDeleteSame thing but fuzzier with JY.
On the other hand, I think Harper is a bit too generous to not include Rosario, Ruiz and Gallo as "bad". They're all over 120 PAs. I'd allow the "bad" label to come with an asterisk for the first two to account for trendlines and mechanical tweaks, but I just don't see it with Gallo. I didn't expect much, but this is worse.
(Weirdly, I don't actually want to DFA him. We don't have anyone who is likely any better. And he's a sure 1B glove, if a black hole at the plate, which is good for Abrams and Garcia's defensive development. But, man, we need to get a real 1b for next season. Christian Walker would be my pick.)
I would agree on 1B. I’m ready to move on from Meneses. Which is too bad. I don’t know that Walker is a fit given age in terms of alignment with competive window. I guess maybe they are hoping Yohandy is the future at 1B? But they need a plan there.
ReplyDeleteFor me, the (potential) stability of Irvin and Parker has been the biggest win of the season so far. If they can provide long term, cheap answers at the 4 and 5 spots, that would be huge for the Nats rotation plan. If they can sneak up to the 3-4 level, that would be massive. With Cavalli that hopefully gives you a solid 3-4-5 and you maybe only need one FA pitcher contract for a few years.
I’m perfectly happy to move on from Meneses and Corbin though. They won’t DFA Corbin yet because he eats innings and is a sunk cost. But by August if both Gray and Cavalli are healthy and no one new has picked up an injury, I would cut him loose.
The funny thing is that I kind of love that Walker is older because that means he'll cost $60M over 4 years instead of $175M over 7 for Alonso, or whatever. That leaves more room for Burnes (and Soto, if we're dreaming).
ReplyDeleteAnd really the numbers could work. If ownership is bought in on competing, a team in this market should be able to carry a $200M payroll. We were around and even over that number before, and even had to pay the luxury tax a couple of times. That cap is $230M now. Plenty of room.
My absolute dream offseason would be:
1. Walker for $60M/4
2. Burnes for $250M/8
3. Soto for $600/15
Total payroll would be up around $180 or $190M. Which is a lot, but it's lower than our peak seasons, and well below the new luxury cap.
I know we can't just dictate the deals we want. Players have to agree and other teams can outbid us. But that would be a hell of a team.
That would indeed be awesome.
DeleteI was the person arguing the Nats probably won’t land Soto in a recent thread, but I’d love to see him back. And this season’s beginning to feel like 2011, when they weren’t good-good, but you saw how they were on the precipice of contending for the division and making the playoffs as often as they did (and should’ve even more, thanks Matt Williams).
I’m still suspicious that they’ll be spendthrifts this offseason, but I’d love for the Lerners/a surprise sale/new TV situation prove me wrong. They’re still more scrappy than solid right now, but I agree that you can see the foundation of another team that contends for 6-7 years coming together, with a few more moves.
I’m assuming that’s the order of priority you’d like to see them signed?
DeleteI think Soto staying with the Yankees is as close to a sure thing as Ohtani signing with the Dodgers. Exciting scuttlebutt while it's unsettled, but ultimately it's too good a fit.
ReplyDeleteMitchell Parker is not due for a regression. He's getting hit harder than league average but walking fewer than average; his advanced numbers are in line with his performance (3.45 ERA / 3.42 FIP / 3.26 xFIP / 3.63 xERA). Maybe Sean Doolittle really is the pitching whisperer.
Meneses really is the second coming of Singley Mike Morse.
Gallo still has more fWAR and bWAR than Ruiz and Rosario. It certainly doesn't feel that way but he's creating his value in all the Gallo ways (BB%/plus defense - Ruiz and Rosario are huge negatives on D).
Morse had multiple years ranging from pretty good to very good offensively. Mennesses has had a few MONTHS of very good offensive years…
Delete*few months of very good offense
DeleteYes - I'm being pretty tight on the playing time rules here but that's the point of setting Memorial Day as the early limit. OK two months in we can start to say something is real. If you aren't there, you aren't there. (Parker is more 3 starts behind where he needs to be - which is like 40% more starts for him! Good things so far but we'll take a look at other guys in the middle of June)
ReplyDeleteAnon@650 - I'm not sure I'd exactly say "priority" exactly, because I love Soto and he's such a singular player. If I were somehow in charge of Rizzo and the Lerners, he's probably be my top priority. But I recognize that's fan talk and not sound baseball logic.
ReplyDeleteEven if we disagree about the exact distribution of that probability, I recognize that the Yankees are a better fit for him and his most likely destination. It's the least necessary improvement of the three given the talent already in the system. So, yeah, that is my ranking in terms of likelihood and fit and need.
If we do #1 and #2, I'll be thrilled. And even if we do just #1 after being in on Burnes, I'll be relatively satisfied. But if they can't even do #1, I'll join the pitchfork crowd.
With the starters, there's only one Burnes and if you think the other frontline FA options are flawed, I could see rolling with the 5 we have, see how they develop and keep trying to trade for or sign an ace down the line. I'll be disappointed, but the logic is there and the team can only control what they can control.
But there is absolutely no excuse to be bargain hunting at 1B with so little payroll committed across the roster. If Meneses or some FA making $5M is trotted out on opening day, then we have to conclude that the money will simply never be there to support the window.
Re Soto, one intangibe the Nats have is his little brother, recently signed I beleieve. Assuming a 15 year contract, there is a chance they could play together one day.
ReplyDeleteIt is very unlikely that we will sign Soto, but I prefer a bit of unreasonable hope even if it risks disappointment. Earlier in the thread, it was mentioned that we have the room to easily absorb his salary and at least one other moderately expensive free agent, 1/ without coming near the first tier of penalties, and 2/ without spending above our historical payroll.
ReplyDeleteTo the first point, the Yankees may not be able to afford Soto without gutting their roster or making him the last expensive FA they add for several years. To the second point, the competition is probably 8 to 10 teams, not 20 teams.
Soto signing with the Nats is also a great story for baseball----he gets to lead a group of talented 22-27 year old that leans heavily upon players for whom he was traded 2 years ago.
Unlike the 20 teens when passion, low interest rates and a successful commercial real estate business let the Lerners spend more on the team than it was generating (and accruing enterprise value), the commercial real estate business has reduced asset value, very high loan standards and interest rates, and reduced demand. I suspect a $200 m payroll will need to be built on the team's organically grown financial success (and not on the Lerners free cash flow). Of course, if they sell, who knows?
ReplyDeleteI think you can cut the "if they sell" qualifier from your last sentence. We just don't know.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, $200m now is equivalent to $150m ten years ago, in terms of inflation adjusted value, in terms of relation to the cap and in terms of where it ranks among teams. I'm not looking for the Nats to spend like the Mets or Yankees or Dodgers. I'm looking for them to spend like the Giants or the Cardinals. And there's no reason why they shouldn't.
The Lerners aren't as rich as Cohen, but they're in the top 5 or 10 richest ownership groups. DC isn't NY or LA but it's in the top 5-10 DMAs by both population and income/wealth. The MASN complication is a drag, but how much do you think it's costing the team? Maybe $15m per year? It's not nothing, but it's not an excuse to run a bottom 10 payroll.
The bottom line is that all this kremlinology is ridiculous. We'll know soon enough if there's money to support the team. Until then, being confident that the Lerners won't spend isn't the sign of wise and worldly realism that you think it is.
Most of their net worth is in real estate, which isn’t a liquid asset. They also may’ve lost money on the team in 2020-2021 and seem loathe to repeat that. We’ll see.
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