Ok yes "ANYONE" is a fair answer but let's see what the Nats actually got. As I said yesterday Corbin isn't doing anything for the team. You know he's pitching poorly but he's also not soaking up innings. He's averaging just under 5.5 innings per start. That's about an out better than Williams and Parker, but an out worse than Gore and Irvin. That might be understandable. "He's pitching bad so he's going over 100 and needs to be pulled" but that's not the case. He's only thrown more than 93 pitches 2 times in 13 starts. If you aren't using Corbin to soak up innings then and instead are treating him like any other pitcher on the staff - what the hell are we doing here?
CUT HIM.
So what's the entire AAA staff?
Joan Adon - traditionally the first man up the last couple of years it's mostly been because they don't want to start someone else's clock. He's not been good in the minors since 2019, with ERAs in AAA of 4.68 in 2022, 4.62 in 2023, and 5.64 this year. He's not an option so much as a defensible organization strategy. He's both very wild and hittable without a lot of swing and miss stuff. It's not the WORST combination - homers are the biggest issue for a pitcher and he's ok there - but it's close. He should not replace Corbin in the rotation.
DJ Herz - the Candelario return doesn't seem to have major league starting stuff. He's exceedingly wild (had a 7.3 BB/9 in AAA before call up) so that means his stuff has to play as unhittable. It sort of does in the minors but first crack in the majors with a couple step up in bats didn't go well. Most everyone thinks reliever. A good one but reliever. Maybe worth trying out but if you sort of want a guy to go longer, he's exactly wrong for that.
Jackson Rutledge - the lastest "maybe this guy" nothing about his performance in AAA (over two seasons 5.36 ERA, 9H/9 1.1 HR/9, 5.2 BB/9, 8.7 K/9) says he's anything. And plus he's 25. This guy is an org guy through and through.
Spencer Watkins - 31 year old Jackson Rutledge. Paid his dues and hung around in the minors moving up because someone had to until eventually he got a decent couple months in the minors and a few cups of coffee in the majors. First one was bad. Last one was bad. Middle one was 5th starter type. Hittable guy with mediocre control. There's nothing here.
Thaddeus Ward - a fringy prospect a half-decade ago who never got back on track after the pandemic and Tommy John. Not everyone does! Thoroughly mediocre in AAA with a K/BB ratio approaching 1. (that's not good. that's actually very bad)
What about the guys I might have heard of?
Cole Henry is hurt again hasn't pitched for a month. Cade Cavalli is "taking a rest" from rehabbing and hasn't pitched for a week. Check in on that again soon. Jarlin Susana JUST had his first really good start in A-ball after a mostly bad start to the year. Travis Sykora has only been pitching for a month to middling results. So we are left with
Andry Lara - I feel like he keeps bouncing up and down but he did well enough in High A to get promoted and is holding his own in AA. He does seems hard to hit but he doesn't have the complete package going that would suggest you could jump him from AA straight to the majors. He's had wildness issues and is fighting through that in AA.
Ok well is anyone in AA making that case?
Maybe?
Brad Lord - Lord is pitching to a 0.64 ERA over his last 7 AA starts, with 41 Ks, 15BBs and 2 HRs in 42 innings. His big thing is he keeps the ball down (his GB rate in 2023 was over 60%) and is terribly hard to homer off of. Upping the Ks a bit is good. How far can that skill set take him?
Andrew Alvarez was guile-ing his way through AA pretty successfully, got the call to AAA and got CRUSHED in his first start there.
So the short of it is there are no great Corbin replacements. Herz is getting first dibs both because he's likely the best option and before you convert a guy to a reliever you want to exhaust looking at him as a starter. But after him I think there's a hope Cavalli will be ready. I suppose if Williams is ok. Josiah Gray just slots in. But as you see pitching injuries happen. It's sort of likely someone will be out or needing a rest. There's a lot of moving pieces here.
If it were me I guess I stick with Herz and probably try out the out of nowhere Lord. Remember the goal here is NO CORBIN. Let these guys throw until Gray or Williams come back and force one of them out. They might both be terrible if so there isn't a great option unless Lara has come together but by then we're heading into the ASB and maybe things have changed. Also maybe BOTH Gray and Williams are back so that doesn't matter.
Anyway pick who you like as long as it's not Corbin.
This is the key problem with crowding Corbin out of the rotation: the alternatives don't offer a realistic chance of being better unless/until either Cavalli (who, as Harper noted, is currently having his rehab "paused") or Gray (who hasn't even made his first rehab start yet, planned IIRC for this Sunday) are ready to go. If Williams hadn't gotten hurt then you could squint and say Herz could maybe outperform Corbin. But Williams did get hurt, and so Herz is filling in for Williams and isn't available to replace Corbin.
ReplyDeleteYes but this is a pro-con list situation where every pitcher except one holds the ultimate "pro" : "He's not Corbin"
ReplyDeleteI would prefer someone we haven't seen in the majors before, even if all it does is increase the certainty with which we know how bad he is. Let a couple of other guys get their cup of coffee and live their big league dream for a little while. There is nothing more to learn about Corbin (and probably not much more to learn about Adon, though maybe the new coaches could get more from him). That's more fun than keeping an obviously washed up guy on the roster. It's not like Corbin is so popular with fans that there will be outrage if he's cut.
ReplyDeleteI think I’d move Lord to AAA for a start or two before jumping to the majors. It’s not the end of the world if Corbin gets two more starts. It would also be good to know more about the state of Gray and Cavalli’s recoveries. Thinking outside of the box, what would it take for the Nats to swing a trade for someone like Fedde? Would the White Sox take Lile? Would the Nats make that trade?
ReplyDeleteIf/when there are five starters with a future who are healthy and ready, Corbin needs to be done. Before that, I don't really think it matters much.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't object if they rotated through a few starts each with Rutledge, Adon and Ward. Maybe Alvarez too, assuming he settles in to be mediocre or better at AAA. (Lord isn't R5 until after next year, so I'd rather not tie up the roster spot without a more compelling rationale than "Everyone else has failed. Let's see what he can do.")
But I don't love rushing prospects that still have upside potential. And, for me, that's Lara and Herz (and the two 20 year olds in low-A that no one is seriously suggesting calling up). When you're competing, sometimes you have to push it, but given where the Nats are with their window, I'd rather the team focus on the path that gives those players a 30% chance at eventual success and not 15%, even if that means we have to watch Corbin a little longer.
Lara needs to develop at his natural pace. He's 21 and has only had 4 AA starts. And I'd have preferred Herz keep working on his control in AAA. Maybe a few starts spelling Williams isn't the worst thing for him though. I wasn't as down on his start as you were, Harper. There were plenty of signs of promise -- but it's also true that he's not currently good enough to start in the majors. Better than Corbin? Probably. But that's not a bar that really matters. The question that matters is "What path maximizes his chances of being better than the worst of Irvin, Gray, Parker and Cavalli?" (And then the follow up is, "If he falls short, what kind of value can he create in the bullpen?")
Of course, it's not impossible that, for certain prospects at certain stages of development, pitching in the majors gives them their best chance. In which case, great. But I trust the team to know more about that than I do.
With this team, I have a fairly rigid policy on cutting vets on the last year of their contract: don't do it unless you are SURE you can't get anything for them before the trade deadline. And that includes a bag of balls, which is worth more than the 0.3 wins you might get from the minor league callup. (This year's Nats ain't getting into the playoffs.) After the trade deadline, cut away.
ReplyDeleteAm I sure Corbin won't be worth a bag of balls at the trade deadline? It's a close call. He's produced a number of quality starts, and a number of stinkers. I'd keep him for another two months.
Good analysis. But when do they let him go?
ReplyDeleteCorbin is like that old family dog. Full of good memories, wags its tail sweetly, but can't see, shits on the floor every other night and is in perpetual pain from arthritis. But how do you get rid of it?
Baseball ethos respects players close to milestones. And the Nats seem to provide this to their last remaining piece of 2019. Let him hang around until there is a replacement.
How much does attendance go down when Corbin pitches? 10%, 20%, more? I can't watch his starts anymore. Wonder how many other fans share this view. What are the stats?
In the end, commerce wins. You like seeing an Irvin, Parker or Herz because they are young unknowns with upside --- and upset wins are cheap and great. I don't watch Corbin and hope for an upset. I wish he was gone.
@Harper: I’ll clear this up since I think this post was directed at my “anyone is better comment.” (High five!)
ReplyDeleteFirst, consider the goal of a Corbin start? Is it to win the game? No. Clearly, it is not. He’s filler and #5 of 5 in the rotation (we won’t talk about how the premium the Nats pay for that so I digress).
So, since the goal is not to win, but merely to play baseball and cash in on concessions, I stand by my comment. All of the guys you mentioned are in fact better because they cost the Nats pennies. An L is an L whether it’s Corbin, Ward, Adon, or… me.
@Mike Rizzo: My price is still flexible. I can negotiate down to $0. You don’t even have to spell my name correctly on the jersey. But I can promise you one thing: nothing changes… I will ensure we still lose that game, just as Corbin would too.
I’ll have my phone nearby :)
I think most of the alternatives you mentioned, except Spencer Watkins, are young enough and haven't shown enough competence in AAA that getting shelled in the majors for a while might damage their development.
ReplyDeleteAt this point, I'd rather go looking through DFA lists and see if there's someone out there who Doolittle might be able to work some magic with. Given that 3 rotation members are already on the DL, "solid replacement level" really is a worthwhile goal here. I guess that's what Corbin is, but my assumption is that the Nats are looking to find someone who'll do that for less than $35m.
Given today's announcement that they'll skip his turn in the rotation on Tuesday, I think the plan is that he'll be out of the rotation as soon as 1 of the starters comes back, and off the roster as soon as Williams, Gray, and Cavalli are off the DL.
@Kevin. I'd also like to see Corbin out of the rotation. I'd put him in the bullpen for long relief in games where the Nats are far behind. But replacing Corbin doesn't save the Nats any money. Corbin will be paid whether he is on the team or DFAd.
ReplyDelete@PotomacFan - the only reason I mentioned shopping for DFA guys was that they could be additions to the staff for next year. I know Corbin's a sunk cost.
ReplyDelete