Everyone wants Soto back

Good!  That's smart, I think. 

But no one said what they are going to do for pitching. They are still 13th best in the NL this year in RA. That's the type of pitching that needs a BEST OFFENSE EVER to compete for division titles with good teams. 

I of course said "just buy more pitching too" but that's me and I don't expect the Nats to actually do that. What is your plan then? Bargain bin pitching? Roll with prospects? Trades?

Bring Soto back or not?

One of the questions floating around this series has to do with Juan Soto as he's coming in as a Yankee. He'll be a FA in the offseason.  Should the Nats go all in to sign him? 

The pros and cons are all obvious. 

On the pro side he's the most impressive young hitter of this generation (Trout is heading out of the middle baseball years. Shohei just turned 30 in early July. Juan will turn 30 after the 2028 season is over.) He's got possibly the best eye in baseball and can hit for average and power. He's still very young. At 25 he's likely a good long contract from any decline. He's never been a problem in the dugout. 

On the con side he'll be incredibly expensive. Likely Boras will open at something like 15 years 1 billion, because he's Boras, this deal will be on the other side of 500 million easy. If your team isn't going to dig into deep pockets this could effect remaining signings. While athletic, he doesn't run great and he doesn't field all that well. However he seems to prefer being in the OF so you can't just stick him at DH and you best have good OF D to cover for him. 

The Nats on paper seem like good candidates to try for Soto. They have a super low payroll right now, so have room for a monster contract. They could put him in OF assuming Crews is a plus CF like people think and Wood gets over his early issues and becomes a plus corner OF which people also think is possible. If anything happens they have room at 1B/DH as well. 

But the Nats haven't committed to a bat like this in a long time. Arguably it was either Jayson Werth in 2010 or Ryan Zimmerman in 2012. They haven't paid a big time bat like this in over a decade. But they have spent money. It's just been on pitching. Sherzer, Corbin, the Strasburg extensions were all top of market deals. That begs the question - is it just coincidence or is it philosophy? And the follow-up - if it's not philosophy wouldn't the fact the Nats have a boatload of young bats and a canoe full of young arms change up targets? In other words doesn't the situation warrant a top starter or two not another bat? 

That depends on how you see the future. The present says the bats need more help. But there's a sense that guys like Wood, Crews, Abrams, maybe House, etc. could become star level bats. On the mound there's a hope that Gore does that but that hope was diminished a bit by this year's simple ok performance so far. The other arms have been surprisingly decent but not #1 arms. If you buy into the bats could be great and the arms won't then arms make more sense. But if not - you fix what's broken and the line-up is broken more.

Soto back to DC is intriguing and it would make the team better. But is it the best path forward.  Of course my answer is YES!* but as the start of a spending spree signing him AND the starter(s) you need. Not my money.

*Well really my answer is "Yes it is the best path forward for the Nats but the Yankees should outbid them"

Monday Quickie - Dylan Crews Day and the New Normal

 Happy Dylan Crews Day! 

The Nats future continues to become the present as Wednesday could feature a lot of what I would suspect would be the hopeful Opening Day 2026 "Hoping to be Playoff Relevant" lineup 

C Keibert Ruiz

1B ? 

2B Luis Garcia Jr

SS CJ Abrams

3B ? (Probably Brady House)

LF James Wood

CF Dylan Crews 

RF ? 

SP  Mackenzie Gore 

DH ? 

Sure the "?"s could be filled by someone here now and definitely don't expect the 6 listed to all be starting in April of 2026 - that's just baseball, but the tipping point has been reached. The Nats will be playing more of the "future" than the "present" going forward.

And that's good because the Nats have finally played enough bad ball to be officially dropped from most WC lists. This isn't doing the Nats dirty. They have 59 wins now and have played most of the season like a high 60s win team. They'll be aiming to get over 70 wins and beat last years surprise 71, with a deserved one. They should do it but isn't guaranteed. Aiming for 70 we'll note the current WC line is at... 70 wins. 

I'll most be interested in what kind of power Crews can bring. That's what the Nats lack the most. Even Wood - who can hit the ball with great force - hasn't been able to put it over the fence enough. That should come with time but you'd rather see someone do it now than have everyone in the "it'll get better" pile. Crews probably won't show that much pop. His AAA picked up the pace from AA but wasn't all that great. Wood's was and that didn't immediately translate.

Enjoy this moment. The future is almost all here (hopefully House will get called up at the end of the AAA season and complete the 2026 squad) and everything is hope and possibilities right now.  Next year will be about the reality.

Dylan Crews is coming to the District of Columbia

I wonder if there is a fun way to shorten that. Oh well. 

Dylan Crews will be the 5th player* from the 2023 draft to debut proving that things are moving faster now than they used to.  After showing he was better than what A-ball had to offer, Crews had real trouble in AA last year, but that's not all that surprising. AA is a big jump from college ball and it was at the end of the longest season of high competitive baseball Crews had played.  He started pretty slow in 2024 as well but by July he was handling AA pitching perfectly well and got the call up to AAA. After a short adjustment, he began hitting there as well, performing very well in the last 3 series (.333 with 4 homers in 14 games. series are longer in the minors).  It's a fairly quick turnaround but perfectly reasonable. 

Crews will remain a rookie for 2025.  He'd have to have 45 active days on the roster but with the last game of the season being September 29th, that passed more than a week ago.  He could get 130 AB (not PA) but with about 30 games left that's basically playing everyday, hitting leadoff, and catching some breaks. 

He's played mostly CF and people were generally high on his fielding.  I haven't heard much different, but then again we heard good things about Wood and he's been disappointing in the field.** Still a true CF carries a bit more weight when they get high evaluations. 

2024 has been about 2025 and this is one more piece of proof. By getting Crews some major league ABs that means he'll be more prepared when he comes up next year, likely to start the year but we'll see. It's exciting and fun and exactly what Nats fans were hoping to see this year. This year has been what the Nats wanted and it's just one more thing making 2024 probably the best year for the team and the fans since 2019. 

*Skenes (awesome but the Nats couldn't have picked him if they wanted), Langford (ok but hurt), Jacob Wilson (surprisingly INCREDIBLE in the minors, just called up), Nolan Schanuel (he's been ok).  So if Crews isn't at least ok it would be a surprise.

** but not at all disappointing at the plate. Ok he could have a few more homers but the guy is hitting over .280+ with patience and moderate power as at 21/22 (he'll be 22 soon). No complaints from me. 

Nats bring back their entire coaching staff

The question is ... why?  

The manager

You know I don't think highly of Davey but he's here through 2025.  The only way that wasn't going to be the case is if this year was a complete disaster and it's been ok! Not great, not bad, ok and more things look good than bad. Sure those are things Davey didn't have much impact on (Wood's rise for example) but the point is he's set. Presumably Davey likes these guys. Since he's going to be here you might as well give him guys he wants. 

The pitching

We all jumped on the Doolittle bandwagon when the starters were hot to start the season. I'm not sure Doolittle made Trevor Williams do that weird Cy Young start. But Irvin is bette, Parker is better than we thought, Herz looks usable.  Sure these may end up as three guys who are 3/4 types but that's an improvement over three guys that fight over the 5th spot which is what we were kind of thinking they might be. Pitching recently for the Nats has been historically bad so they get a little pass but there doesn't seem to be a reason to move on. 

The hitting

And here's the issue. The Nats don't hit, haven't hit, can't hit. Guys don't look to be hitting their potential. Ruiz looked like a solid average hitter and he's slapping .230.  Abrams has star potential and he's .250 and 20. Wood should be a superstar and yes it is very early but he's nailing pitches into the ground like an injured Zimmerman. The offense was boosted by found gems like Winker and Thomas as opposed to home grown players. Even the surprises later in the year Yepez for a while, Chaparro right now, are not Nats guys. 

If there was a place screaming for a change it's the hitting coaches. 

Now of course there's a line of thinking that hitting coaches don't matter too much and that's probably true. But in terms of investment for improvement, these guys are relatively cheap and maybe you get a win or two if they mesh well with the right guy.  The main concern is young Nats hitters that have debuted recently Robles, Adams, Millas, Lipscomb, Ruiz, have underperformed and there's going to be a handful more we see soon. Even guys that haven't underperformed like Wood and Abrams aren't where you'd HOPE they'd be and Garcia, who is now where he probably should be, spent a couple years in the wilderness first.  All signs point to get someone new. 

But they didn't. So it's on them. Just like with the off-season to be, the Nats have choices to make to maybe be competitive in 2025 into 2026. Every choice they make or don't make it's fair to scrutinize.

 

Monday Quickie - Back! (me not the Nats)

Some things that have happened since the ASG and while I've been off gallivanting up and down the east coast. 

• Alex Call has been super hot. One homer and a .526 BABIP? Don't buy it.
• Luis Garcia Jr has heated up again. Let's consider 2nd base closed for 2025. 
• Juan Yepez has cooled down. Just in case you were excited about that. 
• CJ Abrams has cooles WAY down and is probably a little banged up given the rest he's had recently. Sit him as much as you need to. 

• Davey seems content in trying to break Derek Law trying to get unecessary wins in the 2nd half. 
• DJ Herz and Mitchell Parker have both had good 2nd halves though you'd be better off buying Herz a guy that misses bats. 
• Irvin and Gore have not have good 2nd halves. 
• There has been a decent amount of bad relief pitching - as expected when you trade away your good ones

How are the guys gone doing? 

• You might have heard but Victor Robles is having a minor star run in Seattle. We'll see if it holds up but it both backs up why the Nats were so reluctant to deal him AND that they didn't know how to deal WITH him. 
• "Late starter" Eddie Rosario got DFA'd byt he Braves after being even lousier for them. 
• Nick Senzel, the guy I screamed "Why are you even trying with this guy" is currently riding the pine for the worst team baseball has seen in a long time, the White Sox. 

Ok now the traded : 

• Harvey is hurt.  
• Floro had done fine but just got ROCKED by the Phillies so the numbers look bad in Arizona. 
• The Lane Train has derailed in Cleveland. They aren't platooning him which is a bad idea if you want to get max value from him.
• Jesse Winker has done ok serving as depth for the Mets but is looking for some pop.

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What day is it quickie

 I'm on vacation again.  Yes vacation, sick, vacation is not ideal for posting. 

Have the Nats gotten good? Not really. 

Have the Nats been bad? Not really 

They've basically been the team we've thought they'd be since May 10 but as I say continuously - you don't have to give those games back! Trevor Williams' Cy Youngish start to the year is enshrined in history. 

Garcia is holding up. Abrams is still going. Wood has seen his "I hit the ball really hard. Where are my hits?" luck turn around. Mackenzie Gore... well you can't have everything. 

Is this it? Maybe. Every kid is hitting like .750-.800 OPS which is like fine but not pushing to move up. So  maybe we see Crews and others later, maybe we see them next year. 

Everybody basically happy? Seems like right now that's kind of where you should be. Satisfied, waiting to get happy or angry depending on what happens in the off-season.