The question is ... why?
The manager
You know I don't think highly of Davey but he's here through 2025. The only way that wasn't going to be the case is if this year was a complete disaster and it's been ok! Not great, not bad, ok and more things look good than bad. Sure those are things Davey didn't have much impact on (Wood's rise for example) but the point is he's set. Presumably Davey likes these guys. Since he's going to be here you might as well give him guys he wants.
The pitching
We all jumped on the Doolittle bandwagon when the starters were hot to start the season. I'm not sure Doolittle made Trevor Williams do that weird Cy Young start. But Irvin is bette, Parker is better than we thought, Herz looks usable. Sure these may end up as three guys who are 3/4 types but that's an improvement over three guys that fight over the 5th spot which is what we were kind of thinking they might be. Pitching recently for the Nats has been historically bad so they get a little pass but there doesn't seem to be a reason to move on.
The hitting
And here's the issue. The Nats don't hit, haven't hit, can't hit. Guys don't look to be hitting their potential. Ruiz looked like a solid average hitter and he's slapping .230. Abrams has star potential and he's .250 and 20. Wood should be a superstar and yes it is very early but he's nailing pitches into the ground like an injured Zimmerman. The offense was boosted by found gems like Winker and Thomas as opposed to home grown players. Even the surprises later in the year Yepez for a while, Chaparro right now, are not Nats guys.
If there was a place screaming for a change it's the hitting coaches.
Now of course there's a line of thinking that hitting coaches don't matter too much and that's probably true. But in terms of investment for improvement, these guys are relatively cheap and maybe you get a win or two if they mesh well with the right guy. The main concern is young Nats hitters that have debuted recently Robles, Adams, Millas, Lipscomb, Ruiz, have underperformed and there's going to be a handful more we see soon. Even guys that haven't underperformed like Wood and Abrams aren't where you'd HOPE they'd be and Garcia, who is now where he probably should be, spent a couple years in the wilderness first. All signs point to get someone new.
But they didn't. So it's on them. Just like with the off-season to be, the Nats have choices to make to maybe be competitive in 2025 into 2026. Every choice they make or don't make it's fair to scrutinize.
How do you account for guys like Lane Thomas turning into dust when they leave? I know the team doesn't hit enough, but I feel like it's entirely too easy to blame the hitting coach instead of whomever drafted the guys in the first place.
ReplyDeleteAl Galdi is out there screaming his head off to replace Darnell Coles, but he's just some talk-radio guy who probably doesn't have the first idea about hitting or coaching. Does anyone know what makes for a good hitting coach?
Darnell Coles is not the one who swings at pitches from neck to ground level. Nats have too many hitters who lack plate discipline, and only Wood and Young are comfortable going the other way. The most talented player has been picked off six times, and Martinez keeps putting DH's like Tena and Yepez into the field. Ruiz hasn't hustled the entire season, and why is Martinez Manager for Life with a team featuring players who dog it?
DeleteI'm not saying that Al Galdi is an expert or anything, but his brother runs the analytics department of the Phillies. He probably knows more than the average podcaster.
DeleteBelieve nats should add Doolittle equivalent for batting - a hitting strategist. Lots of potential upside with bringing in a data translator for the young bats - someone who like doo who can handle both the data and the ability to communicate (and have respect) of younger guys.
ReplyDeleteI'm fine with how the team is doing since the trades. like figure out and test where guys can play or if they are major leaguers. Yepez, Tena, Chaparro, give em all the at bats, see if they can defend where they played and then adjust as needed. but also most of the coaches should have been fired at the end of the year except for Doolittle and Hickey, they have done a clearly good job with okay to decent pitchers.
ReplyDeleteWell we had a hitting coach named Kevin Long.
ReplyDeleteMLB Offense Ranking (runs scored)
2018: Nats 8th (K. Long)
2019: Nats 6th (K. Long)
2020: Nats 10th (K. Long)
2021: Nats 16th (K. Long)
2022: Nats 26th (D. Coles) …. Phillies 7th (K. Long)
2023: Nats 21st (D. Coles) …. Phillies 8th (K. Long)
2024: Nats 19th (D. Coles) ….Phillies 6th (K. Long)
All that said, I think it’s a hitting strategy/philosophy at an organizational level, not Coles unilaterally ruining players. Maybe that philosophy was different when Long was here? We also had better players during his tenure and weren’t in a seasonal fire sale. Coles probably comes cheap, perhaps thats why he works here?
I'm sure this has nothing to do with the respective lineups of these two teams during the cherry picked years... Hitting coaches can help individuals, but ultimately like Harper said, it's a win or two at most for a team. Long got famous for getting Murphy to start homering in New York. He also gets along with B. Harper. It's always about who you know...
DeleteThe change in offense is real, but you know at least half of that has to be because of the changes in the roster. I really don't know (and don't think anyone can quantify very well) what difference the coaching makes, which is where I'm going with that.
DeleteON THE OTHER HAND, terrible fielding across the board is something that can be coached, practiced, and made an organizational priority. And it's evidently not being done, which is a problem.
So after getting steadily worse under Long, they have improved each year with Coles. No wonder they extended him. Probably earned a solid raise too.
ReplyDeleteI cannot fathom how fans get worked up about coaches. We have no idea what impact any of these guys have. Think about your workplace. Would even a very knowledgable outsider - a client or a vendor or a competitor - have any clue who the best people managers or mentors are amongst leadership?
Coles's bosses think he's adding value. We don't know anything one way or another. I'll choose other aspects of the team to analyze.
This is a valid point.
Delete“ I cannot fathom how fans get worked up about coaches. We have no idea what impact any of these guys have. Think about your workplace. Would even a very knowledgable outsider - a client or a vendor or a competitor - have any clue who the best people managers or mentors are amongst leadership?”
ReplyDeleteCongratulations, you accidentally stumbled upon the definition of a fanatic. Fear not, you’re among friends.
Let's give someone credit for the development of Jake Irvin -- who will likely be the Nats' 2025 Opening Day pitcher. Here are some fun stats about Jake Irvin: 3rd in NL in innings pitched (!); 9th in WHIP (at a very respectable 1.15); and 15th in NL in ERA. Not exactly an ace, but a solid #3 and very possibly a #2. He is #2 in home runs allowed, but then Max Scherzer allowed a lot of home runs, too.
ReplyDeleteHere comes Crews! Maybe with NYY in town it's to show Soto what he could have next year with the team (wishful thinking...)
ReplyDelete