The Nats are sadly done with the Marlins a team that they dominated this year (11-2) which helped them in their attempt to reach last year's lucky win total with a deserved version of it. Yes, without the Marlins the Nats look more mediocre (55-80) but you can't really do that. Or at least you can't do that and not pull out a team they did really bad against like the Padres (0-6) or Phillies (2-8) or Mets (2-8). The rest of the season is harder, but with 14 games left they should easily get to 70 wins. Beating last year would take going 5-9 also a better than even chance. This is the nice results you can have when you start the first quarter of the season .500. Everyone thank oddly fantastic Trevor Williams.
One thing you might have noticed is that the Nats have a sort of split. They are one of a series of teams that can beat up the bad teams (WP% .571 or a 92-93 win pace) but get beat up by the good ones (WP% .380 or a 62 win pace) This puts them as a team that if made up like this again will struggle to get to .500 and of course then the playoffs. That's about as far as this analysis goes. They can get better by time. Young players getting better, etc. but why take that chance? Lerners - make the team better!
Everything about the Nats team this year strikes you as "this is what they are" they were a little unlucky in one-run games, but a little lucky in extras. They don't particularly favor RHP or LHP. They are better at home (35-39) than away (32-42). As the season winds down this is the narrative of 2024. Hot start meant they wouldn't be bad, kids came up and they have mostly been good. That was enough to keep them at the a decent pace after the hot start. Now it's about either:
- setting up the team around these young players, or
- doing nothing and seeing what the young players do before committing money
Nats fans have been patient and have accepted that this go around wasn't going to have the Werth-esque move of bringing in a high cost vet (or two!) in anticipation of getting better. But now you have a ~70 win team with a couple of players that people like to get better (Crews & Wood) a couple young arms introduced this year that also might improve (Parker & Herz) and various other young players that can also take steps forward - with various levels of probability that they do (Gore, Garcia, Abrams, Young, Ruiz, Tena). You could take the time to see if they don't need a lot of free agent help, but that could also put you in a spot next year where you are approaching 80 wins and .500 instead of 85 wins and fighting for a Wild Card. I know where most fans would rather be.
The thing that's really encouraging is that they have quality major-leaguers at just about every position except 1B and DH. (And you could probably fill one, but not both, of those spots with guys like Tena, etc.) The starters aren't great, but they're definitely at least decent, and once Corbin is gone, you can count on them to give you 6 solid innings 80% of the time. I would love it if they re-up Williams and stock up on relievers.
ReplyDeleteSo that leaves 1B/DH. We all know who would make a great fit as a "just hit the ball far" free agent signing. This lineup, plus Brady House and Juan Soto, is pretty impressive. No glaring holes, a bunch of above-average hitters, and one of the greatest hitters in the game is a pretty good formula.
Ehhh…not to be overly negative (am I actually more pessimistic than Harper here?) but the way I see it is we’re set in the outfield and middle infield next year with at least solid MLB players playoff caliber, but CI and behind the dish I don’t really see it. If Tena was simply a below average defender he would cut it but he’s HORRIBLE out there. 1b is a mess, Ruiz is fine as a backup but we’re paying him as a starter and have nobody better. Pitching we have a bunch of 3-6’s. Not a team that screams to me knocking on the door of the playoffs with just 2 free agents signings (I mean unless those are Soto and Burnes then I’ll admit that puts us knocking on the door, but we ain’t getting either of them.
DeleteAlso wonder what we do with Tena and Chapparo next year. Both are horrible in the field but Tena seems like his bat plays in the MLB and that’s still TBD for Chapparo (power/batted ball velo is there, but needs to improve on walks or contact, sub .300 obp won’t cut it even with making hard contact)
ReplyDeleteOnly need four wins to get to 72 and better than last year, not five, no?
ReplyDeleteI am not sure I agree with the consensus on Tena (good hit; hands of stone.) Tena was a middle infielder in the upper minors, even entrusted with the shortstop position. This is not the profile of a bad fielder, especially since he seems to have the arm required of third base. The bad minor league fielders are relegated to corner outfield or DH. My guess is that, with a winter of fielding drills or Dominican ball, he will end up as a cromulent 3B, at least until House comes around.
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