Offseason Position Discussion : DH

It's probably more correct to say the Nats didn't have a DH this year. No one started more than 29 games there and 7 guys had at least 14 starts.  DH for the Nats wasn't a position to fill, but a drop off place for guys that weren't playing that day. 

They wanted Meneses to play DH with Gallo at 1B but when that all imploded they tried Senzel the Rosario (this is really a comedy of errors) before settling on Winker. Winker would be traded though and it was mostly Chaparro after that.  However neither Winker or Chaparro, good elsewhere, were good at DH and the Nats ended up with a .205 /.274 / .341 line* from a position in the lineup only there to hit. 

Yikes.

Presumed Plan : 

A FA signing that can be had cheap assuming they go in on 1B.  Otherwise the FA signing goes here and 1B is cheap

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

The Nats aren't spending money like crazy people. They certainly have shown they will commit money to the team before but they've never been the types to top the league in payroll. They probably** will put out for two big contracts this off-season and stands to reason that they would go with one SP and one 1B/DH and try to solve the rest internally or trades or cheap FA. That's probably the most impactful way to spend on two big contract. 

Since 1B matters more makes sense that would get the deal, but reality might push them to DH if their initial plans don't come to fruition. Unfortunately pure DH players are not easy to find anymore as guys can't hit like they used to. There really isn't an ideal candidate outside of the obvious one that is clearly a primary goal for every team. Juan Soto.

They could go after Juan. He will be very expensive. The Mets and Yankees both are likely willing to pay top dollar along with probably 1 or 2 other teams. Other teams may also be in the mix at first.  The Nats have overpaid (Werth) and been the biggest contract guys (Max) before. However, they seem less confident than they did when they went after Werth and aren't looking for that last piece as it was when they signed Max. They could do it but no one feels very confident they will. Until then, the plan falls to a boring sign a 1B and adding a one-year bounce back deal into the DH mix.

My Take :  

Signing Soto would be the serious move. It makes the offense immediately much better, an offense that is 12th and 14th in RS in the NL the past two years and 15th in homers in both.  Yes it was 13th and 15th respectively in Soto's last year but there are pieces around now that really make it hard to believe Soto won't pull them up closer to average at least. 

But Soto is expensive. 

I wouldn't care. He's a multi-generational hitter with an incredible eye and great power and most importantly he's super young and has been healthy.  You aren't going to get a more sure bet on a player for the next 5 years than on Soto hitting.

But the reality is the Nats may give it an honest try and still lose out. If that happens they need to have a fall back plan and as I've noted 1B has an obvious solution. DH, post Soto does not. They need to honestly gauge their ability to get Soto and if they think they can't get him, move on quick so they aren't left with mediocre choices later in the FA period. 

It is the time for action. The Nats need to be in on players that multiple teams want and they need to be on them quickly.

*Amazingly only 26th in baseball. 

** I mean they got to right?

Where's your pride?

The Yankees won last night (yay!) and oddly enough it was the first time since 1970 a G4 was won by the team down 0-3.  In fact of the 24 times before this year a team has been up 3 games to none, 21 times it ended in a sweep and the other 3 ended in Game 5.  That's pretty crazy when you think about it.These teams are presumably evenly matched. Even if you say "well 3-0 means they aren't evenly matched smart guy!" and you say one team has a 40% chance of winning a game* you'd expect 9-10 Game 5s instead of the three we've seen, around 4 G6s, and 1-2 G7s.  

Now of course teams will lose G4 for the same reasons they could win it, but if you are having 21 teams crash out instead of say 13 some of those teams are just giving up.  So let's see who.  This is my takes from the series I remember watching.

2012 Detroit Tigers. Fighters.  Lost G2 and G3 by 2-0 scores (yes a Bumgarner game was in there) and lost G4 in extra innings. 

2007 Rockies. Fighters in this game only. They put up their best (only) effort of the series in G4 losing by 1 and twice scoring late after the Red Sox scored to expand their lead. 

2005 Astros. Fighters. The fightingist swept losers ever! In every game, would lose the series by a combined 6 runs in 4 games. G4 was 0-0 until the Top of the 8th

2004 Cardinals. Quitters. After being unable to take G1 with 9 runs the Cards packed it in for the series putting up little resistance to the Red Sox of Destiny despite winning 105 games themselves. G4 featured three singles and a lone double

1999 Braves. Quitters.  After being game in the series, Yankees took the wind out of their sails in G3 winning in extras on a Chad Curtis homer. Ouch. Smoltz would try bu the offense packed it in for G4. 

1998 Padres. Fighters. They almost won G1 and G3 holding leads late against maybe the best Yankee team of this stretch. Put 10 men on base in G4 but couldn't bring any home. 

1990 A's. Quitters. The dynasty that never was got beat up by Cincy in G1 and G3. G4 was close but only bc Dave Stewart wasn't going to get embarrassed again as he was in G1. He was great. The A's scored one run in the 1st but that was it for hits and after a 2 out walk in the second made 22 consecutive outs to end the game

1989 Giants. Fighters.  It wasn't to be at all but down 8-0 the Giants valiantly cut it to 8-6 going into the 8th.  It just was too little too late. 

 

From here it's stats only. 

1976 Yankees. Fighters. The Reds would win by 5 but that was bc of a 4 run top of the 9th. Yankees scored first and responded to the Reds scoring 3, just couldn't beat the Big Red Machine

 1966 Dodgers. Quitters in general but I guess fighters in G4. The Dodgers hitters hit .142 for the series with 1 homer. Sure pitching but you know my motto - teams don't win, they lose.  Anyway in the 9th with one out the Dodgers got their 4th single of the game and then drew their second walk but they couldn't bring the tying run home.

1963 Yankees. Fighters? Similar to the 1966 Dodgers, questionable effort during the series but in G4 fought, scoring in the 7th and putting a man on in the 7th after that, a man on in the 8th and 9th. 

1954 Indians Quitters. Mainly the pitcher Bob Lemon who didn't have it and the manager Al Lopez who let him hang out there until he lost it. 

1950 Phillies Quitters. The Whiz Kids. went down without a fight to the Yanks only scoring 2 runs in the top of the 9th thanks to a HBP and a flyball error. 

1939 Reds. Fighters. Teams were at 0-0 until the 7th then it went 2-0, 2-3, 2-4, 4-4.  But in extras the Yankees would score 3 and put it away. 

1938 Cubs Quitters. Hitters seemed game. Pitchers let them get a lead early and gave up runs every time the Cubs tried to mount a comeback. 

1932 Cubs Fighters. Down 1-0 after 1 Cubs made it 4-1 Then down 5-4 in the 6th Cubs tied it up. Yankees run roughshod after that to make in 13-6, but these are some prime Yankee teams. Yankes hit .313 / .412 / .521 as a team for the series

1928 Cardinals. Quitters I guess. This might be the most lop-sided series ever, a title usually taken by some 1960s series with dominant pitching.  The Yankees only trailed after 4 in G4 which they'd put away int he 7th. Won every game by at least 3. If the Cards quit it was starting in G1 not for just G4. 

1927 Pirates. Fighters. Murderer's Row would complete the sweep but not before the Pirates scored 2 in the 7th to tie the game at 3 all. Yanks would walk it off in a wild b9. After a walk and single and wild pitch, Pirates would intentially walk Babe Ruth. After Gerhig and Bob Meusel struck out with the bases loaded and no outs the winning run would come in on the second wild pitch of the inning. 

1922 Yankees. Fighters. Lost G1 and G4 by 1, Led G5 late.  Huh you say? G5?  They tied a game because of gate receipts... I mean darkness!

1914 Philadelphia Athletics. Quitters.  After scoring to tie it up in the 5th the Braves would take the lead right back and Philly wouldn't get another hit the rest of the game. 

1907 Tigers. Bad luck Fighters. Another series with a tie and Mordecai Three Finger Brown dealing for all 9.  Tigers put a man on in seven of nine innings. Got men into scoring position in the 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th but didn't get the hit to drive them in. 

 

*A ridiculously low % in baseball where the worst team in the league against everyone wins like 40% of the time, let alone a league champion.

Monday Quickie - Boone is dumb

I hate Aaron Boone. He's dumb in a modern sense - usually making the analytic choice when such things are figured out in a vacuum and games are managed in the real world. He's also dumb in a traditional sense - usually going for his gut against the traditional move but in a way that doesn't make sense. Sigh.

How was your weekend?

A few Nats are in the AFL.  Hassell is hitting ok so far through a couple weeks. 

uhhh

uhhh

real quiet out there.

Offseason Position Discussion - First Base

The Nats went into 2024 with the hope that either Joey Meneses would blossom or their FA pick-up Joey Gallo would hold down the spot. Neither were being counted on to be long term solutions, more likely trade-bait, but it could have gone in any direction depending on how they performed and what they Nats looked like they needed going forward. When both essentially flunked out of the majors the Nats turned to a organizational depth pick-up Juan Yepez to cover the spot for the rest of the year. He did so admirably hitting well enough that the Nats are at least thinking about where he fits in for next year if they want to look at him some more

Overall the position was one of the Nats' weakest and ripe for improvement.

Presumed Plan : 

A FA signing that can play 1B.  This player may end up at DH instead.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Joey G. will be bought out and Joey M, at 32, had his chance.  These aren't real options. 

Juan Yepez is a poor fielding 1B with little history of success at the plate. Still he's interesting in that he's a rare player that can generate power without sacrificing contact. However what appeared to be potentially special in 2021 has regressed to usable.  He's worth throwing out there again but not as a primary source of production.  Andres Chaparro also spent some time there but he right now would be behind Yepez.

The Nats have a 1B they like ok in the minors in Yohandy Morales, but his AA stay last year almost certainly puts him back in that league for another year. At 22 this isn't an issue, but the Nats can't rely on him coming up and making an impact in the next couple years. 

They could move someone over (Kieboom? Wood?) but there has been neither planning or inklings they are interested in such moves. 

All this says they have the need for a FA at these positions.

My Take : 

 Yep. While James Wood's play suggests his long-term home might be at 1B (or DH) it's way too early to give in just yet, especially with a couple strong defenders along with him in the OF. So a FA makes sense and there's a few decent ones out there. 

Pete Alonso (pure power, no glove, still 30) and Christian Walker (good D, solid bat, 34) will get the biggest deals.  Walker might be ideal for the Nats and would be where I'd look first. If you are scared of the age there's really only one other option 31 yo Ryan O'Hearn who hits like Walker but is more of a DH. If the Nats don't want to commit big money long term Carlos Santana (formerly great, still all around good, but 39) and Paul Goldschmidt (formerly great still ok but bad trends and 37) are out there for short term deals.  If the Nats do something like that I'd hope they are putting money in elsewhere. 

 If they don't want to fight for a 1B the OF class is slightly deeper but you'd have to bet on being able to get someone on a decent deal and that they'd want to play 1B and you'd have to get over the "lefties at 1B" thing.  A Michael Conforto type might be the answer.

Still that seems overly complicated.  The Nats need a 1B there is a good 1B fit available. The Nats have $.  Just sign the best option. If it takes a 4 year deal you are probably stretching his usefulness but given he's good on the field and at the plate has pop, has patience seems like something will hold up.  Although if you are worried his K rate did jump up last year.

I will add the caveat that IF they were to go into the Juan Soto sweepstakes and sign him that gives some leeway to 1B being more of a gamble.  Two former Nats that did well here might be amenable to come back Jesse Winker in the "move position" category and Josh Bell in the "had an off year could be cheap" one.  I wouldn't make either of these Plan A or even Plan B to most other Plan As but if Soto is Plan A then sure, gamble.

Monday Quickie - The Three-Quarter of a Billion Dollar Man

Juan Soto is awesome. 

Juan Soto is very young. 

Juan Soto is about to go from very rich to unfathomably so. Buy an island house to buy an island. 

Juan Soto was really bothered by the events of 2022. That's the truth because I can't otherwise explain how this guy hits .242 for a season. 275? Ok bad year. .242?

Anyway the Yankees and Dodgers in the World Series.  It's the teams that spend the most in the biggest markets so it should draw eyeballs and media interest. Some people hate this. The biggest markets ALWAYS get the eyeballs and media interest. Not all teams have owners that want to (or very rarely "can") spend a ton of money. Take whatever view of it you want to.

Who do Nats fans root for (if they wish to root for anyone)? Probably depends on how you feel about Juan Soto post Nats and the Yankees. Clearly if you hate the Yankees and/or Soto you are probably rooting against them. If the Yankees aren't your least favorite team and you hold no grudges against Soto you probably are rooting at least for him, and thus tangentially for the Yankees.  

If neither of these hold true, things get more wonky.  You may hate the Dodgers a bit more with the Nats running into them in the playoffs a couple times. Although they did beat the Dodgers on the way to the title so how much can you hate a team you are 1-1 against? You may be a "root against any NL team" person or a "root FOR the NL" person. You may love Ohtani. (easy to do)  or Aaron Judge (a bit less likely but he isn't really hateable just bland, but the guy is a physical phenomenon  He's not a lumbering beast. He just a 6'2" guy scaled up by 15%). You could like someone else - probably Mookie, though Stanton is fun as just a "swing big hit ball hard" guy.  Kershaw? OK, everyone has their kinks. You could hate the Dodgers for the go nowhere trade for Ruiz/Gray that sent off Max and Trea. You could be a former Orioles fan still harboring anti-Yankee sentiments*

If you don't want to follow the series that's fine too. Hell you might shut down after the Nats do.

Anyway this kid is excited. 15 years is a long time to wait.

*Though it's fun to think it's been 20 years now of Nationals. Anyone 25-30 or younger are very unlikely to be a "former O's fan" thing unless their parents did the "root for the Os in the AL, Nats in the NL" thing.

Offseason Position Discussion : Catcher

The Nats had a long-term plan at catcher.  Ruiz's performance over the past couple years have called that plan into serious question.  After being signed long-term Ruiz put up one of the worst statistical defensive years we've seen at C in a while (for whatever that is worth) and this year he was well below average at the plate. Does anything now change because of it?

Presumed Plan : 

Ruiz with Millas and/or Adams as back-up.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Ruiz has that contract. He'll get every opportunity to bounce back and starting 2025 as the presumed #1 catcther might just be "every opportunity".

Adams and Millas are who is here and ready. If you aren't going to replace Ruiz this is what you go with. But they each have issues so you can't rely on a single one. 

Adams is seen as a poor fielder. Previously it was thought he could platoon well with Ruiz bc he mashed lefties, but Adams crashed against them this year. If he's not a good fielder and not a good hitter against the pitchers Ruiz stuggles against, what is his use case? 

Drew Millas hit well in the minors again - this time in AAA, but that didn't translate into major league success. It was only a month so you can't really say anything for sure but as a 27 year old with no real prospect status it helps if you prove things right quickly. 

Makes sense in this case that you start with Ruiz at C, if he falters you swap in Millas for an extended look (Ruiz down to AAA to get right?) and Adams sticks around as a back-up / 3rd option depending on what's being done with these guys.

My Take :  

There's a lot of ways forward. You can just commit to Ruiz. He starts. He plays. You deal with it for at least a couple more years. If this is the case I'd jettison Adams and Millas and bring in a veteran catcher who can work with Ruiz on... well everything. 

You can follow the presumed plan hoping to hit on Ruiz or Millas in 2025 so you don't need to make a move (and then making a move in the off-season if you didn't hit on either, they both failed badly, and the Nats are closing in on contention) 

Or you can make that move now. You might be able to get Alejandro Kirk (FA after 2026) for something or maybe Wilson Contreras if St Louis is rebuilding (gotta eat a lot of $ though). If you don't want to trade because the return isn't great, there isn't really a good FA catcher this year. Higashioka who will be 35, d'Arnaud who's always an injury gamble, Danny Jansen is you want to take a gamble on this was an off -year. If you think a rental might be cheaper the best one next year is Realmuto who isn't going to be traded and certainly not inter-division.

I think the Nats have enough issues left to solve and are not quite in contention so they can let this go one more year.  Whether that means way 1 or 2 is up to how you feel about Keibert and Drew. I lean toward 1 just because the guy can make contact, and I like guys that make contact. I feel like you can make that work. I think last year's D was an aberration and while he may not be good he isn't immediately an issue that needs to be replaced. I also like the fact he's younger so him getting better seems more reasonable to me than Drew. I don't see the point of moving from hoping things pan out with this better once prospect to hoping things pan out with this older non-prospect.  If Millas wants the job, he'll get ABs.  To me, he'll need to force the issue if he wants a trial.     

Monday Quickie - on to the Position recaps

That'll be where we go from here - what we expect the position plans to be in the off-season. While watching and of course rooting for the Yankees to win it all. I assume that's what we are all doing. 

The "how the kids doing" series has to then end. But let's quickly run through the kids we really care about not covered (covered were Wood, Ruiz, Gore, and Abrams)

Luis Garcia Jr. - He had a really good bounce back year. It was pretty simple. He hit the ball better.  Harder, less on the ground. More mistakes then became homers and that was enough.  No seriously. If he hits like last year and say only has 10 homers his BA is pretty much what it was last year.  He's still not walking so he'd be below average again. It's pretty simple, if not easy, for Luis

Dylan Crews - He only played for about a month so grain of salt all this, but I'd call it disappointing but promising. The stats were disappointing for a guy that was supposed to be a natural hitter. But the fielding was good, the baserunning was good, and the hitting was really centered around one issue - not getting the ball up enough.  A 57+% ground ball rate.  He did have enough fly balls so that's why you saw a few homers but that leaves his LD% at an embarrassing 10%.  With his decent eye and his pedigree this seems like it will change. He also pulls too much but you can make that work. You can't make hitting a ton of balls into the infield grass work. 

Jake Irvin / Mitchell Parker / DJ Herz - One important thing to note here I've said before - Irvin ain't really a kid. He'll be 28 before next year starts. 

Irvin is a mediocre pitcher but by cutting down on his walks a bunch this year, he made himself perfectly acceptable as a 4/5. That's all he did. He might have a small improvement left cutting homers but minor league stats say this is Jake. That's fine.

Parker has better stuff than Irvin but he didn't quite find a finishing pitch in the majors. That was probably because he was working on not walking guys. He was a wild K guy in the minors. Things could swing wildly for Mitchell in 2025. He doesn't keep guys on the ground so the HR rate could bounce up. Or he could get wild again. Either of those and he's probably out of the rotation. Or maybe he does figure out how to keep his control and add more Ks to the mix and takes a step up. Or maybe he just stays the same as a 4/5. It was a good year bc he showed he can pitch in the majors. That's really what you wanted to see from a guy like Parker who's at best a middling prospect. But nothing here is guaranteed. 

Herz is the guy you want to focus on. Another Wild K guy in the minors, but wilder and more... uhh... "K"y. He showed he can K guys in the majors with junk and guys don't hit him well. He still walks too many guys and let's guys hit too many balls in the air. So the combination kept him from having a good year but if he can get one of those under control... this guy can be actually good. Unlike Parker his stuff really plays here so there's a lot more potential. However, before you get too high on him there was a real definitive drop in effectiveness when he threw more pitches. after pitch 50 guys started to smack him.  Third time around things got ugly fast. So the question does remain starter or reliever. (or modern dominant 4 inning 5th starter? Need a diff't bullpen for that)  But his stuff should let him have a major league role either way.  This is the most promising thing that surprised for the Nats this year. The introduction of a guy that could be a special starter, or a special reliever. Most likely he won't be but you want a bunch of these types bc they can't all miss.

Lucky or Unlucky : 2024

 Every year we do this - checking in where the team got lucky (or not) and maybe how that factored into this season and following ones.  This isn't to say a player if "lucky" can't continue on the same path, or if "unlucky" will bounce back. It's really just about expectations into this year and how those played out. Reasonably expect a guy to hit .280 with 20 homers and he goes from .310 35 or .250 10. That's what I'm talking about.

 

Lucky 

Before 2024 Trevor Williams recently peaked as a pitcher when the Mets moved him to the pen and he put up a 3.00+ ERA pitching in relief.  As a starter he had one good year back in 2018 but otherwise had been bad at the role for half a decade. Yet, he was Cy Young worthy for the third of a season he was healthy.  Yes, he did get hurt but his value for those 13 starts were well above what he had done in any full season since 2018.

When you throw three young guys with at best mild expectations into your staff the expectation would be one would flame out, if not two.  But Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, and DJ Herz all performed well enough to hold down spots for the whole year. Like getting three straight scratch-off come up as winners. Only like $5 or $20 but that's still lucky.

Derek Law is a guy in a pen. That sounds like faint praise because it is. He just hasn't been special since his rookie year. In 2023 he had value but the numbers behind it suggested he wouldn't be good. But he was! Better than any year since 2016!

Some bench players will out perform when seen in small doses but Alex Call hitting .343 / .425 / .525  was crazy even if for ~100 PA.

Unlucky 

While last year's mediocrity tempered expectations, there really wasn't any reason to think Keibert Ruiz would continue to regress and become a flat out bad offensive player.

The flip side of Alex Call is Eddie Rosario .186 / .226 / .329 is surprisingly bad after an average 2023.  They caught the last year of his career. It happens. It's bad luck. 

Your #2 and #3 relievers both catching the low end of things (Harvey is having his ERA not match his in a vacuum performance thanks to some untimely balls getting through, Rainey really struggling to come back from injury) is low end bad luck but should be mentioned.

As Expected

Some free agents hit (Winker) some don't (Gallo) some are worth trying into their mid 30s because they are probably still good (Floro) some aren't even under 30 because they are probably never going to be good (Senzel).  Sunrise Sunset.

Young players can vary. Luis Garcia Jr seemed to have this in him. Trey Lipscomb may simply barely be org depth. Wood can come in and pretty much immediately be good. Crews can come in and look like he needs some more experience. Some variation is standard. 

 CJ Abrams had a wild ride but ended up kind of where you thought. Well not in AAA that was not expected but we're talking about season performance. 

Pretty much everyone else. Scour the team and it's hard to find anything unusual. This was the team that was built and it mostly

Similar to last year the Nats weren't trying to be good. Similar to last year the Nats caught more breaks than they didn't. Some BIG breaks pitching wise with Williams and the no downside kids, that lead to a lot of decent innings on the mound and a few wins more than the team was built for. Add in some aggressive baserunning and a bounce or two of game luck and here we are. 

DISsimilar to last year there is expected to be some improvements next year because the talent here is now real major league level talent. How good can Wood be? Will Crews step up next year? Who is CJ Abrams really? Can those young arms keep being decent? Just sticking with what the Nats have isn't a recipe for success. It's a recipe for a couple more wins with a lot of variance. Say expect 73 wins but 81 or 65 being possible. What's going to set expectations is what kind of FA moves they make. Make the right ones and that variation becomes enough to get the Nats into the playoff hunt if things break right for them.  But you have to expect SOMETHING right? Like so mid to upeer 70s is the floor of likely expectations unless like Gore needs TJ and Wood breaks his leg in an off-season ATV accident.

Who to root for - a little late

 Do you base all rooting interests on the Nationals? Would you base your rooting interest in the playoffs on the teams with the most National ties? If so... 

GONE TOO SOON

Braves 

Former Nats pitcher Reynaldo Lopez was a great starter for the Braves but they would shift him to reliever at the end. Mistake? They aren't still playing are they? Also on the Braves, Eddie Rosario. Yuk.  Glad ya lost

Brewers

Joe Ross was on the Brewers as the season ended. He did fine!

Astros

With Dusty gone the most Nationals person with the Astros is GM Dana Brown - who was the director of scouting until Rizzo took over the GM role. How'd he end up GM if his Expos/Nats scouting was... mediocre at best? Time and a stint with the Braves that was actually good.  Player wise it's barren on the post-season roster but Old Friend (tm) Wander Suero is in the org and was on the mound when the AAA team Sugarland clinched the AAA title. 

Orioles 

Daniel Johnson, former Nats draft pick who ended up traded to Cleveland was there. That's it 

STILL IN IT TO WIN IT

Yankees

You may have heard of a little player named Juan Tiberius* Soto. Only one but it's a big one.

Royals

The Royals picked up Hunter Harvey mid season to help with their playoff push. He got hurt very quickly. Other than that no Nats. 

Tigers

No Nats

Guardians

Lane Thomas was traded to Cleveland and was disappointing... until he crushed a bomb to open up the ALDS. 

 

Mets

Jesse Winker, another traded guy, is the obvious one but who could forget long time Nat Reed Garrett (9IP in 2022) finally finding his form for this Mets team?

Phillies

Trea Turner. Bryce Harper. Kyle Schwarber.  I mean this is basically the Nats team that could have been.

Padres

What happened on August 8th, 2024? That's when Carl Edwards Jr threw his one inning of major league work this year.

Dodgers

Blake Treinen and his talent at pitching good and somehow seeming bad is playing his fourth season for the Dodgers. Daniel Hudson, at Dodger before he was a Nat, has been in LA since 2022 and actually pitched a full season this year! (he was ok). Ever the resourceful team they've made use of a Nats' castoff. Anthony Banda, who has made an incredible journey in his career**, including a stop in DC last year, found himself at home in the LA bullpen.

If seeing former Nats makes you happy, you are rooting for a Phillies Yankees World Series

If it makes you sad, you are rooting for Padres facing either the Tigers or Royals.

*May not be his actual middle name 

** drafted by the Dbacks, refused, drafted by Milwuakee, traded to Arizona, made his debut with Arizona in 2017 then traded to Tampa (2018-2020), DFA'd and traded to SFG for cash (minors only 2021), traded to Mets (2021), DFA's then grabbed by Pittsburgh off waivers (2021-2022), DFA'd then traded to TOR for cash (2022), DFA'd, rejected assignment, signed with Mariners (minors only 2022), opted out, signed with Yankees (2022), DFA'd went to minors, elected FA, signed with Nationals (2023) in off season.  DFA'd spent season in minors. Elected FA, signed with Cleveland (minors only 2024), traded to Dodgers

Pete Rose - dead

I'd say RIP but that guy doesn't really deserve to rest in peace. 

Pete Rose ended his career with 4256 hits.  That's about 70 more than #2 Ty Cobb but almost 500 more (getting close to 15%) more than #3 (Hank Aaron if you didn't know). That's a lot of hits.  A couple of guys in the last 20 years have gotten within a 1000 hits.  Albert Pujols (3384) was close until age 34, and in fighting range until 37 but petered out like most players would as he hit his late 30s.  Derek Jeter (3465) was only about 70 behind at age 38, and was beginning to have a serious case for reaching 4000 if not passing Rose, but an serious injury in the playoffs in 2012 left him nothing but a "prove I can still play" comeback season before retirement. 

So how does one become the Hit King? It's simple, but it's not easy. 

Start early and play for a long time: Rose's first season was at 22, not ideal but early enough. He'd play for 24 seasons. 

Stay Healthy : Pete Rose played at least 150 games in 19 of his first 24 seasons, and in one of those he was healthy baseball was just on strike. He played the most games of anyone in baseball history.

Bat Early in the lineup: If you leadoff you will have over a season about 35 more PA than if you bat 3rd, about 70 more than if you bat 5th. The first number is extra season over the course of a 20 year career, or like an extra 200 hits. Rose batted leadoff in about 2/3 of his games, about 1/4 in 2nd and nearly all the rest in the 3rd slot. He had the most PA than anyone in baseball history by almost 2000.

Hit well : all those PA don't matter if you are a scrub. Rose hit .303 for his career, and .315 over a SEVENTEEN year stretch. He averaged 206 hits a season from 1968 through 1979

Don't walk too much: Rose could take a walk when he wanted but preferred to hit, and his walk rate was around 9-10% during much of his career.  So despite crushing the competition in plate appearances. He was a modest 14th in walks for a career. 

Surprise a little at the end : When you get old teams generally are fine getting rid of you after a bad year or two. That means two bad seasons after like 36 can pretty much end your career if you aren't tied to a contract. Pete had his first real off year at age 39 in Philly (his first below average year at the plate since he was 23) and could have been set up for a drop in playing time but he bounced back to hit .325 in the strike year.  He was again off in '82 at 41 and flat out bad in '83.  

Get close to a record : That would have probably been the end but he was at 3990 hits at the end of 1983.  Montreal signed him mostly to get the 4000 hit bump and when they got that and his bounce back was more of a barely noticeable rise they traded him to the Reds to finish his career. The Reds would give him his chance to get to Ty Cobb. Rose would rise as much as he could to the occasion. In his month with the Reds in '84 he hit .365(!) and in the following year he began focusing on walks. Despite hitting .265 with his power long gone he managed to have an average offensive year because his OBP was nearly .400. Not great for a 1B but for a guy chasing a record for a middling team it was ok

Refuse to quit : The one thing I'll admire Rose for, which I admire in any player. Refusing to walk away when it's clear you aren't the same player you were, refusing to step aside until the game is ripped from you is a quality one needs to achieve the highest numbers. While I don't care about the chase I do say play until you can't because you aren't getting another chance. Pete did that. While his modest homer power died early around age 31, he was still a doubles machine until age 40. But in that second off year in 1982 it was clear he was just a singles hitter who couldn't play the field. Some guys let pride or shame screw with them. Rose definitely did not feel shame

 

Is there anyone close to Pete now? Manny Machado thanks to a career starting at age 19 is in range but isn't the high average hitter Pete was so will slip further behind even if he plays to 40. Same generally goes for Bogaerts, Bryce and Betts, all in the general area but not healthy and/or not high average hitters. Luis Arraez is probably the best prototypical singles hitter but got a late start so basically can't afford an off year if he's to keep pace.  

There are three interesting possibilities - as much as anyone can be for such a ridiculous target. Ronald Acuna has 815 hits at age 26 (Rose 899) thanks to a two year head start. He's show he CAN hit for high average (.337 last year) but is extremely injury prone you can't see him getting those PA he needs. Vladdy Jr. also had a two year head start and is well ahead of 25yo Rose at the moment 905 hits to 723 hits. He's also been very healthy playing nearly every game now for 5 straight seasons. But while he can hit for average he bounces around as likely to hit .270 as .310.  No the best option is the obvious one. Or let's say the obvious JUAN

Juan Soto had  a three season head start and has 934 hits putting him over a full season better than Rose at the same age. While Soto has had off years no one doubts he could hit over .300... if that was his goal. But Juan also has real power which both lends himself to hitting lower in lineups and lends him to "settle" for hitting like .285 with 40 homers instead of .325 with 25. He makes that up by leaning into something Rose leaned away from, taking walks. While it would be interesting what would happen if baseball told Soto to go for the record, it's likely bringing in more value by smashing homers and getting on base will drop him behind Pete by age 30.