It's probably more correct to say the Nats didn't have a DH this year. No one started more than 29 games there and 7 guys had at least 14 starts. DH for the Nats wasn't a position to fill, but a drop off place for guys that weren't playing that day.
They wanted Meneses to play DH with Gallo at 1B but when that all imploded they tried Senzel the Rosario (this is really a comedy of errors) before settling on Winker. Winker would be traded though and it was mostly Chaparro after that. However neither Winker or Chaparro, good elsewhere, were good at DH and the Nats ended up with a .205 /.274 / .341 line* from a position in the lineup only there to hit.
Yikes.
Presumed Plan :
A FA signing that can be had cheap assuming they go in on 1B. Otherwise the FA signing goes here and 1B is cheap
Reasoning behind Presumed Plan :
The Nats aren't spending money like crazy people. They certainly have shown they will commit money to the team before but they've never been the types to top the league in payroll. They probably** will put out for two big contracts this off-season and stands to reason that they would go with one SP and one 1B/DH and try to solve the rest internally or trades or cheap FA. That's probably the most impactful way to spend on two big contract.
Since 1B matters more makes sense that would get the deal, but reality might push them to DH if their initial plans don't come to fruition. Unfortunately pure DH players are not easy to find anymore as guys can't hit like they used to. There really isn't an ideal candidate outside of the obvious one that is clearly a primary goal for every team. Juan Soto.
They could go after Juan. He will be very expensive. The Mets and Yankees both are likely willing to pay top dollar along with probably 1 or 2 other teams. Other teams may also be in the mix at first. The Nats have overpaid (Werth) and been the biggest contract guys (Max) before. However, they seem less confident than they did when they went after Werth and aren't looking for that last piece as it was when they signed Max. They could do it but no one feels very confident they will. Until then, the plan falls to a boring sign a 1B and adding a one-year bounce back deal into the DH mix.
My Take :
Signing Soto would be the serious move. It makes the offense immediately much better, an offense that is 12th and 14th in RS in the NL the past two years and 15th in homers in both. Yes it was 13th and 15th respectively in Soto's last year but there are pieces around now that really make it hard to believe Soto won't pull them up closer to average at least.
But Soto is expensive.
I wouldn't care. He's a multi-generational hitter with an incredible eye and great power and most importantly he's super young and has been healthy. You aren't going to get a more sure bet on a player for the next 5 years than on Soto hitting.
But the reality is the Nats may give it an honest try and still lose out. If that happens they need to have a fall back plan and as I've noted 1B has an obvious solution. DH, post Soto does not. They need to honestly gauge their ability to get Soto and if they think they can't get him, move on quick so they aren't left with mediocre choices later in the FA period.
It is the time for action. The Nats need to be in on players that multiple teams want and they need to be on them quickly.
*Amazingly only 26th in baseball.
** I mean they got to right?
Yeah, they absolutely have to make a run at Soto, and with the amount of young talent in the system they can afford to set the AAV bar high. Of course, what we don't know is if Soto can hit as a DH (I mean, yeah, he's Juan Soto, he can hit anywhere, but there's statistical evidence that some players drop off meaningfully when DHing; not everybody can be Edgar Martinez, Frank Thomas, or David Ortiz), or if he's willing to move out of the outfield.
ReplyDeleteYepez is probably Plan B at DH, simply because he actually hit reasonably well in 2024. Unfortunately, like Chapparo, he sucked in his small sample size as a DH.
Whatever the solution is, though, what I really want is for the Nats to get a true DH and just play them there full-time. I'm of the firm belief that DH is a proper position like anything else in the game, and the modern "we'll just rotate players through DH to give them some half-days of rest" is a great way to result in lousy DH production *and* to get oneself into the kind of mindset that intentionally gives 400 PAs to your fourth outfielder.
I wouldn't interpret the DH penalty as entirely settled fact just yet.
DeleteDH's, especially part time ones, get the partial day off when their bodies need it. It's the furthest thing in the world from random assignment.
And to any extent that there is anything to the penalty - all that likely means is that teams need to figure out better engagement exercises or physical drills for the DH between plate appearances. Even if somehow the absolute best possible preparation is playing a couple of innings of baseball defense with a sit on a bench in between, that would be pretty easy to simulate. Like, I don't know - rig a pitching machine to pitch on a poisson distribution with a mean wait time of 5 minutes and have the DH catch them during the team's time in the field.
I think Yepez will def be in the mix if they don't get Soto. Along with Chaparro and some random FA. That would be my expectation. The Random FA probably starts there OD just bc
ReplyDeleteHarper, do you think that the Soto sweepstakes will end quickly this time? Or will Boras wait until February/March as usual. Because the losers will be bottom feeders.
ReplyDeleteIt will end whenever there are really only two serious bidders left. You can only do so much after that. But given that the FA field is not deep with stars I think teams that are good will feel they can hold off and if they don't get someone else that's fine. So I don't think it will end quickly.
DeleteBoras has waited just a bit too long a few times. On the other hand, Soto is Soto. I could easily see the Mets or Yanks pursuing their Plan B in December and bidding against each other for Soto in March anyway. So, I think, could Boras. This would screw the Nationals, who can't afford to pick up a decent 1B and pitcher in December, and then enter a bidding war for Soto.
DeleteRizzo knows, and we don't, what the budget constraints actually are. Maybe they aren't really in on Soto and are only going to sign one premium player (so 1B or SP). Maybe they can afford all three. Maybe it's Soto OR 1B+SP (that seems to be your guess, and I agree it's reasonable, but at the same time we just don't know).
ReplyDeleteIf they are going to be budget constrained, then I actually wonder if they don't try to lock down the best 1B they can as the first matter of business and then possibly waiting on SP until Soto is settled. Getting shut out of the frontline SP market wouldn't be as big a disaster as starting next year with Yepez and Chaparro as our 1B + DH. The team seems pretty clear eyed that we are more likely to not sign Soto than to sign him (maybe too clear eyed for my taste, honestly), and I expect the top priority is to make sure to bring in at least one very good 1B/DH.
I think this is correct. It's easier to improve *this* team by improving 1B + DH than it is by improving SP. It also seems to be the case that there are multiple SPs available toward the beginning of spring training, so waiting for the Soto sweepstakes to resolve may not be so costly in terms of actually signing an SP.
DeleteI think the only way for anyone to think it's more probable than not that he signs Soto is for that person to believe he can write the biggest check. With Steve Cohen involved in the bidding, it's hard for anyone other than Steve Cohen to think he will be able to write the biggest check.
Pete Alonso? Assuming the Mets are pursuing Soto, they may hold off on offering him a contract, allowing another team to sign him. He’d not only help the Nats but weaken the Mets too.
ReplyDeleteWhy is everyone seem so eager to put Pete Alonso on their Nats wish list. He's slow, not a great defender, doesn't hit for average, expensive, and will want a long contract. I generally favor improving with dollars and Christian Walker would be fine....but I am open to some prospect loss to line up Yandy Diaz
ReplyDeletePete Alonso is a worse version of Ryan Howard. We see how that deal ended up. No thanks on anything above a two-year deal for him, which definitely won't get it done. Let someone else overpay.
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