If you are inclined to be angry at the Nats for bad decisions, third base in 2024 provoked you to a near fury. The Nats went into the season with a two prong strategy (note that this is the perfect number of prongs to stick in a socket and electrocute yourself), third base would be split between "never prospect" Trey Lipscomb based off a minor amount of competence shown in AA with just a bit of surprising pop, and "crashed and burned" former 2nd pick in the draft Nick Senzel who had been given a solid chance by the Reds and hadn't progressed past "bad".
Guess what? This didn't work. In August and September Jose Tena took the position and hit pretty well. He fielded like crap but based on all reports on him that was an anomaly. It ended up a real black hole for the Nats after just last year being a pleasant surprise with Jeimer Candelario.
The idea though is that this was a bridge year to the Brady House plan that takes place at some point in 2025. At the end of July that looked like Opening Day but Brady House hit .228 / .261 / .339 the rest of the way making that look unlikely.
Are you ready for another season of the Nats punting?
Presumed Plan :
Tena holding the position until House is ready.
Reasoning behind Presumed Plan :
With Vargas now gone, Tena should be the super-sub but he's the only one on the team who played 3B last year. That makes him the leader in the clubhouse. As DH/1B are noted issues without an hopeful solution in the minors coming up soon, they deserve more of the FA look. Tena wasn't bad at the plate and should field so you play him and hope either he comes through or Brady House starts like a House on fire, or both and things just work out.
They will need to find a back up though. Do they carry Trey Lipscomb for that? Just stick with Andres Chaparro who is a subpar defender? I'm not sure they know and they might be looking for FA to find the answer for them.
My Take :
This could be trouble. They really didn't want to be in punt mode again in 2025 but Brady House didn't push through enough to make you want to bring him up and neither of their low-rent fixes surprised. They are now stuck with a minor mid-season trade surprise to try to keep up what he did in 2024 while getting back on track with the glove. This has all the makings of another year of this position being one of the worst in the majors.
But I don't know what you do since all expectations are that House will be given the chance to take over the position at some point. You either go all in on a solution or you hope like a Jose Iglesias or Donovan Solano falls into your lap for a couple million. Sure those guys might fail to hit againbut it's worth a few million to see.
There IS an all in solution in Alex Bregman who will demand and get a big long salary as the best option at the position by a good margin. The Nats could do that then let 1B/DH figure itself out and worry about where House goes later - or maybe even trade him off. I don't think that's where I want the Nats to land even if he is the #2 position player available. He's just not the gamechanger the Nats need, imo. This offense doesn't need solid - which is what he is now
I know I sounds pessimistic but I’ve never been that impressed by House. I feel him going to AAA was more pushed by his name and pay than actually doing that great.
ReplyDeleteI sure hope they don't go after Bregman; a cheater, with a bad elbow and a too long contract sounds like a recipe for disaster.
ReplyDeleteIf Bregman isn't good enough to be a game-changer, who is? (Soto, of course, but the Lerners will likely be outspent by the Steve Cohens of the world.) The Tena-House solution only makes sense if: (1) House turns out to be near the upper end of his projections; and (2) the Nationals are willing to be only respectable next year.
ReplyDeleteIf Tena starts at 3B, who will spell him when he needs a day's rest or has to sub for Abrams at SS or tweaks something? Chaparro?
bregman could be a game changer for a couple years, but that's it.
Deleteplus I don't want to watch Bregman every day
DeleteI’m so tired of Rizzo’s plan to go cheap while waiting for future Nats who might be good at some point down the road. Clock is ticking, bub. Go for the sure thing — Bregmann — and let the rest work itself out
ReplyDelete@Jim K: Except that there's no such thing as a sure thing. Bregman was a monster in his age 24 and 25 seasons. But that was also helped by the jackrabbit ball in 2018 and 2019. Since then he's been more good than great, and even those numbers have been slipping (his OPS+ and wRC+ have declined in each of the last two seasons to just 118 in 2024). He turns 31 around Opening Day. Is he worth having on the team? Absolutely! Is he worth backing up the money truck and making a multiyear high-$$ investment in? That's the real question. Look at Nolan Arenado's contract for a cautionary tale. Arenado had a bounce-back season in his age 31 season, but has been a barely above league average bat in his age 32 and 33 seasons. Bregman's timeline does not match up well with the Nats.
ReplyDelete@Anon - It's not about House hitting his better outcomes, though of course the plan would be sunk if he were to bust. It's about the timing. House's median outcome at this point is a 2 WAR/600 player over the bulk of his rookie contract, but it's very different if he's a 1.5 WAR/600 player by June than if he's 0.5 WAR/600 one. Whether House is ready to be a contributor during the 2025 season is probably the toughest judgement call Rizzo has to make this off season.
ReplyDeleteAnd I'll just point out that there are trade options that could help bridge the gap if House needs 2 more years. It's not actually Bregman or bust. Arenado should be available for nearly free (in prospects - he's owed $65M/3 or whatever). Saurez would cover us for a year, and should only cost an FV40 or two. There may be someone else I'm forgetting. If I'm Rizzo, I have doubts about Bregman being worth 180/7 and I don't think House is going to be ready fast enough, so I'm looking to pull off one of those trades.
I just don’t envision a quality GM, like Rizzo, banking on House being the 2025 solution at 3B. Didn’t we learn that with Kieboom? Rookies, are so unpredictable, which is why I have to laugh at WAR projections for players who have limited ABs at Triple AAA.
ReplyDeleteWhat are you talking about? Didn't Jake Alu lead the team with 2.6 fWAR in 2023?!?!?!
Deletehttps://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-zips-projections-washington-nationals/
If the Nats were sold on 2025 being a make or break playoffs year I'd agree but I think there's still a feeling this is a set-up. He's not banking on House as much as seeing what House is for 2026 and on
DeletePatrick Wisdom DFA'd by the Cubs so I hope everyone's excited for Nick Senzel 2.0
ReplyDeleteAt least his name is a little cool
DeleteHarper, I am a Nats fan living in Philadelphia. For the last few days the Inquirer has been writing about the Phillies trading Alec Bohm. Why was this not mentioned in your post? (Harper never answers any of my questions; but I keep trying...) https://www.inquirer.com/phillies/phillies-trade-ideas-rumors-alec-bohm-ranger-suarez-20241122.html?utm_campaign=e-edition_11_22_2024&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru
ReplyDelete