The 2025 ZiPS projections are out from fangraphs and while not something you should bet the house on (no projections are like that imo) it gives an idea of where the Nats are TODAY. And where they are is not very good!
This shouldn't be surprising. They lost their best starting pitching (even abbreviated Trevor Williams was great enough to take this crown), their best pure hitter (Jesse Winker) and their likely best reliever Dylan Floro (Derek Law has an argument if you are the type that wants to argue). They also dropped their 3rd best reliever (Finnegan) and a useful bat (Lane Thomas). And in their place they've brought in...
<insert cricket sounds>
All that suggests a pretty stable team performance after a 71 win season, with the losses here balanced out by the losses of some really bad crap (Corbin, Rosario, Senzel, sadly Joey Meneses) and the improvement from the ton of younger players on the team. They were the youngest team at the plate last year and younger than average on the mound and should drop down more.
73 wins? 75?
But this is telling us what we already know. The Nats need to get FA (or trade) help to make the playoffs more than a far outside possibility in 2025. The Nats have a month before "it's getting late early" but this is the story for the team right now. They need help. Will they get help? Expect it repeated ad naseum until they give us something new to talk about by actually signing someone or it gets so late the talk changes to "what are they doing?"
Agreed, not many real surprises in the projections.
ReplyDeleteHouse's was a bit worse than I hoped. Tena and Chaparro a bit better. Starting depth looks OK and the bullpen past the first four arms very much does not.
And while the projections are very much not perfect, I think you need a really good reason to have your median expectation much higher or lower.
When I looked at it, I got the team to around 74 wins just via the net addition by subtraction. If you want to bet on the young players actually improving on a rate basis, you can round that up to 75 or maybe 76 as a reach.
But, yeah, .500 should be the minimum goal for this season, and that means acquiring around 6 WAR. Let's sign some guys.
IMO Wood was still the best hitter (pure or not).
ReplyDeleteHard to say in this free agent environment if it’s a good idea to splurge. I’m of the camp to do small incremental deals to fill the gaps, maybe provide guidance to the youngsters. Otherwise, let’s see what the kids can do and (hopefully) spend “stupid money” next offseason.
To add to this, my modest wish list is:
Delete-Goldy/Rizzo
-Veteran SP to hold the fort and take pressure off young guys (ideally Max though I’ll worries about his health)
-2 relievers; one better than finnegan level, one around his level.
The problem with waiting another season to spend is they will be in the same place next off season as this- a consistently bad club that no one wants to play for. It seems most of the free agents these days prioritize joining a winning team, and that's why the Nats can't sign anybody this year. Another bad year and it will be just as hard to sign guys next year.
ReplyDeleteNot necessarily. Unless something goes really bad they would be at least a few games better but more importantly another year along in the development of the young players. Most free agents (Aka not Soto) have only so many years until they’re a burden. Signing a tier 1 or 2 FA this year is essentially wasting one of the good years you get out of them.
Deleteagreed mainelaker, they need that werth-type signing to signal they're ready to pay. i'd love for that to be Burnes, but who knows. I still think, given this FA market and the Nats depth at SP, that Rizzo is more likely to be working out a trade or two to fill holes rather than signing people
ReplyDeleteI don’t think that is necessary…Players will know we are ready to pay a lot of money when contract offers for a lot of money are offered. Werth situation worked out well in a weird way that he had a bad first year when the team was still building, then he picked it up the next few years (and for longer than most expected) after that and he aged very gracefully.
DeleteIf we believe in some beyond-the-stats vibes or symbolism, maybe Werth was good. On the other hand, his stats put him at less than 1.3 WAR per season on average. Plus, if we really want to play the vibes game, he was intentionally hard on Bryce Harper (it's been retconned as "mentoring" but there was a clear Bryce vs. Werth "who plays the game right?" argument that the local reporters always resolved in favor of Werth) which may have been part of him deciding to leave, and they won nothing while he was there. Do we really think Scherzer (the Nat's one truly excellent FA signing) came here to play with a washed Jayson Werth, or was it because of the company of Harper, Strasburg, Rendon, and a truckload of guys named Benjamin?
DeleteAny good players are another year towards leaving - the 40-man payroll is just barely over what Juan Soto is making per year. If this is what the Lerners want to do, forget it. Spend $50M on whomever you need to, but for God's sake go get more talent. This is just unreasonable. This isn't Tampa, it's not Oakland and it's not Kansas City. It's Washington. They're not even spending Baltimore money.
ReplyDeleteA few commenters are talking about the Nats' depth in starting pitching. Which is true, but it is still a bit strange to have one of baseball's better 6-7-8 starting staffers buried in AA or AAA, and one of the worst 1-2 combos in the ML. Our 3-4-5 is okay. Welp, at least we're relatively resilient against pitching injuries.
ReplyDeleteI appreciate that everyone (including me) has fun talking about what the team should/will do. However---even with Soto, Snell, etc. of the table and several major trades completed--it is still very early. In particular, way too early to be assuming the Nats will do nothing. Additionally, Rizzo clearly prefer to stay in the shadows and strike without notice. It is strategic for him, not just an aspect of this personality.
ReplyDeleteI am hoping for Christian Walker in a clear overpay and one more power bat that is unexpected (probably by trade). I think the starting pitcher addition will be someone like Trevor Williams who can serve as a swing pitcher. or an older pitcher on a short contract (Max or Kyle Gibson). IOW, I think Rizzo is fairly sold on his young pitchers and wants someone who adds value to team but won't get in the way.
As Steven notes, the offseason is not over. However, as a fan, it is intensely frustrating to see other teams signing and trading players and the Nationals' only acquisition being that famous piece of org depth, Jack Squat. And beyond that, we're not even like, say, the Red Sox or Blue Jays who are trying and failing. We have no idea if Rizzo is playing his cards close to his chest, or if Rizzo is under orders from ownership to not bother spending more than whatever he might find in the couch cushions.
ReplyDeleteRight now Yepez, Chaparro, and Tena are lined up to fill 1B/DH/3B, the fifth starting pitching spot is an open question, and the bullpen is basically Law, Garcia, and the power of prayer (although to be fair, as Szymborski points out, "begin with crap and make midseason trades" was Rizzo's basic bullpen-building strategy even when the team was good; there's a reason Patrick Corbin, for all his post-2019 struggles, pitched three of the most iconic innings in Nationals history). The team needs help, and moreover it needs the help of good players, not "just a guy" folks.
ReplyDeleteI wrote yesterday: I think the starting pitcher addition will be someone like Trevor Williams who can serve as a swing pitcher. or an older pitcher on a short contract (Max or Kyle Gibson). IOW, I think Rizzo is fairly sold on his young pitchers and wants someone who adds value to team but won't get in the way.'
Just announced: Michael Soroka. Was a starter, found some success as a reliever, and they will try him as a starter next year. He gives Rizzo some flexibility to field his best 5 pitchers without wasting the services of the most expensive one.
I initially liked this signing...but if they want to try him as a starter I see this as a waste personally. They don't need more backend of the rotation guys. I guess Rizzo's trying to catch lightning in a bottle like he did with Trevor Williams, but the likelihood of that happening again is pretty slim. Make him the long relief guy, and I like this signing much more
Delete@CP. You can never have enough pitchers who can pick up the ball every fifth day....maybe you have to stash one or two in the bullpen. If Soroka doesn't work out as a starter (meaning not better than at least 5 other available pitchers on the roster), then its back to the bullpen for him. But he once had a high ceiling, why not see if it still there.
ReplyDeleteIt feels like this is at least the third relief pitcher signing around the league that is premised on giving the player a chance to prove themselves again as a starter. It feels like a trend to me. Not sure whether this is purely personal in each case; a reflection of new training techniques and better data on pitching success; or maybe there isn't much difference between a three-and four inning long reliever and a starting pitcher who most nights is only going to give you five or six innings.
Really surprised there is any optimism on signing Soroka. I look at that as the Nats basically saying they are waiting until 26 to try to compete. Complete punt. You have low payroll and 4 young pitchers already in your rotation and you bring in a lottery ticket as your FA pitcher signing? Come on man.
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