What's coming

 The Nats season is over in the "compete for anything worthwhile" but it's far from over in the "kids development sense" we know about the kids that are here and doing well. What's coming down the pike? 

 

More time for kids here 

 

Brady House - looks like a talented kid up for the first time.  Strong swing, solid form but he's getting fooled a lot. Works out to about an average bat in his limited time. A little iffy in the field so far. If he can just slightly improve across the board that's a win because he's right now he's probably a just good enough player (think Luis Garcia) and you gotta figure they'll be a chance for a real step up in 2026. 

Dylan Crews - is still out though before the ASB, and after he had worked himself back to "when is he going to be playing games" figure sometime in the next week. That could be today, maybe this weekend. No rush. Fairly similar to House but his form at the plate isn't good which negates a lot of the strength in it. Chases a bit less though and is starting to warm up in the field.  The goal for the next couple months? Get the ball into the air more. 

Daylen Lile - can really ID and square up on pitches but slow bat speed and that has been the death of Ruiz.  Now Lile isn't Ruiz because he is fast.  There's a chance he could be Steven Kwan. There's a better chance he could be one of the dozens of guys who don't last though. Kwan is a unicorn. 

Andry Lara - The Nats pitching staff has a lot of "kids" A lot of guys like Cole Henry (26 on the ASG), Jose Ferrer (25), and Mitchell Parker (26 in September) who should be rounding into final form now (see : Gore, Mackenzie 26). Unfortunately for these guys and Lord (25), Rutledge (26), Brzykcy (25) instead they are still getting used to the majors and likely I'd say 5 out of 6 won't be any good. OK that was depressing but you know who IS a kid? Andry Lara. And he's looked good as a reliever in VERY VERY limited play. He gets hit but he induces grounders. Over time as a starter that's been iffy, you lose control you leave balls up... but for an inning as a reliever? So far, so good

 

Kids coming / coming back - 

Cade Cavalli - Has he looked good in AAA in 2025? Uh.... no. He's wild and not missing bats and well that's not a good combo. But he's going to get into the majors because at 27 in about a month it's time for him to produce or get out of the way. The Nats liked him before so they'll throw him into the fire. 

Robert Hassell - Does he seem like a AAA player? Yeah. But squint and you see a guy who struggles at a level, then gets better. He was pretty awful in the majors with nothing to excite you but his other skills are good so if he can be ok maybe there's a 4th or 5th OF here? His only issue is the OF is crowded. Harder to get a chance when Wood is needing reps to keep improving his D, and Crews needs to get back into it. (which is kind of why they gotta let Call go) 

 Marquis Grissom Jr.  - an intriguing relief arm that shouldn't be great (he doesn't blow anyone out at all) but is hard for batters to get a read on so they don't usually hit him very hard. Unfortunately Marquis doesn't have a great read on himself. When he controls his wildness has enough to hold down a major league role. We'll probably get a chance to see if he can do that in the fall

Yohandy Morales?  - Probably not as a DH/1B he's sort of squeezed currently in the majors, esp with all the OF needing to have a look. But he's in AAA and was beginning to heat up. If Bell goes then there's a spot open and he'll have his first swings in the majors. 

 

Various other not kids who might get cycled in based on timing. For starters - Seth Shuman, Chase Solesky, and Andrew Alvarez stink but are there in AAA. They probably get passed by Kyle Luckham though if he doesn't stink. Holden Powell is the closest to a kid in the pen. Konnor Pilkington is an interesting older lefty. Seems like a dozen could be late 20s guys. Batting there's a lot of chaff. Jackson Cluff maybe? Get the 28yo a couple major league at bats before sending him on his way?

What's gone wrong

Everything? 

Ha ha. No! Didn't you read the last post? There are some good and in the comments I mention the sort of neither good or bad (Garcia, Irvin, Parker, all the kids just getting their feet wet) 

But there are some bad things. You can't be 20 games under at the All-Star break on luck alone.  

 

Plan Ruiners

Keibert Ruiz had a hot start making optimistic Nats fans say "forget about the last few years! Maybe he was hurt!" Nope. He stinks! Always bad behind the plate, he hasn't gained power as he got older and he hasn't learned any patience. He's a slow slap hitter and has the stats to prove it. The Nats gambled on Ruiz after a decent couple of first seasons. They lost. And somehow back-up Riley Adams is worse as at least Ruiz's contact skills are something. Riley is just hoping to run into one and doesn't.

 Trevor Williams looked real good when healthy in 2024. I mean he was good! So the Nats signed him to a 2 year deal with the general thinking if he could be 80% of that by July they could flip him into something interesting. But 2024 looked like a fluke and 2025 proved it was. He's unmovable and signed for next year. The only bright side is there is a fair amount of luck here so him coming back next year to eat innings and pitch at the back of the rotation wouldn't be the worst. That's good! 

Reaching deeper into the FA garbage pile for Paul DeJong, Colin Poche, and Lucas Sims, Rizzo hoped to go beyond getting a deal into getting something for nothing. He got nothing for nothing as Poche and Sims were so bad they are already gone (and should have been earlier) and DeJong was only saved from the same fate by injury. No help for team or trades. 

Shinnosuke Ogasawara was supposed to be cheap rotation depth.  He hasn't shown an ability to hang in AAA let along the majors. At least if you burned the money you'd get some heat from it.  

 

Not what they hoped for  

Nathaniel Lowe was a cheap but sneaky good 1B who played good defense and hit well and the combo made him sort of a Top 10 1B (yeah 1B is historically weak - you still gotta play guys there!). But for the Nats in 2025 he's doing neither well and is basically the 1B this team should have. The good news is like Williams he'll be back and unlike with Williams, this year seems to be his fluke. So maybe next year. 

Jacob Young is an exciting and fast young fielder who had some exciting stretches at the plate last year. But in 2025 everything has gone wrong. He's hitting worse. He fielding worse. Hell, he's been caught stealing 9 times in 19 attempts. From possible starter to back to the minors.

Nasim Nunez was stashed on the major league roster all 2024 because you can do that if you are a bad team. All glove and no bat the hope was he could work his way to average at the plate and last year seemed to suggest that was possible. This year though he's hitting his way out of AAA.  

Jackson Rutledge, Zach Brzycky were two young names they were hoping to show something in the pen. Both have been bad. Edward Salazar, Ryan Loutos, and Jorge Lopez were all arms picked up with the hope something would click. It did not. 

 

In the macro 

While Parker and Irvin alone are basically hitting low expectations, together with Herz it was hoped one might continue to pitch like a middle of rotation guy. Nope. These two regressed and Herz got hurt.  

 

The short of this is the FA signings were pretty remarkably terrible this year. Not just missing but missing so bad with guys they were not getting out of AAA or being released before Memorial Day. This meant the team had no depth anywhere with the lineup, rotation, and pen all only 1-2-3 players deep. The Ruiz development is also really disappointing bc it's hard to find a good catcher, they actually committed to someone and it's just become a mess. At least the kids that didn't come through, weren't the kids you really care about. Some of the A-Team came through, the others are just getting their chances, the B-Team's failures are disappointing but they aren't long term issues, just issues for 2025 when you are mixing and matching what you have. 

 

What's gone right

With the team reeling there isn't much to say here but we generally start out with right so...   

Unqualified Successes

James Wood is a bonafide star. All-Star. HR Derby participant.  On pace for 40 homers, 100 RBIs, and 100 walks.  He strikes out a bit much and never developed the skills in the field you'd hope but at 22 he's one of the best bats in the game and likely to get even better. He's a build around player. 

MacKenzie Gore is an ace.  Maybe not a Skenes level but he'd be #1 on a number of teams.  He has matured and has figured out how to maintain a level of control that makes him that much better. A stud that you can build a rotation behind

Brad Lord made his way to the majors are looks to be a solid addition to the bullpen while Jose Ferrer has gotten over some early season bumps to also settle into a nice spot. Both at 25 and under control for years you can imagine them as pieces of a solid pen once the Nats commit to or find the couple shut down arms they need. 

Qualified Successes 

Kyle Finnegan has settled into that "he's the closer" role where he's not any better really than your other good relief arms but he has the job and does it well enough not to lose it. In the old days you could flip that for something but teams are smarter now. In the new days these guys are valuable because they let you use your truly good arms when you really need them. The Nats don't have truly good arms. So Kyle is really just another decent pen arm, which is fine, but circumstances mean it's not a big win. 

CJ Abrams' talent is getting more consistent.  Say what you will about his attitude (up and down apparently) and ability to play SS (only down) but he's a high energy electric player with 20+ HR power and the speed to steal 50+ bases if the Nats were so inclined. Also he's 24.  He's got a skill set you need to figure out how to control or flip for an arm.  

Alex Call continues to be a nice surprise. He's generally been a solid to good defender but the bat was a question.  While it's nothing to get excited about from a 30 year old who's not going to get better it's undeniably been good. He's a solid player you got for nothing and that's always a plus 

 Amed Rosario didn't suck, he was ok. He's sort of the bench guy good teams have, able to play a lot of positions (though not well) and hit fine. A good sub to have when a guy goes out for a couple weeks. Unfortunately that's not the team the Nats are but that's not Rosario's fault. 

Squint and you can see success

Mike Soroka was a gamble. When healthy he's perfectly decent holding down a back of the rotation spot.  It's a low bar but it's probably the first one you set out for this signing. 

 

Without an injury the Nats can walk out of 2026 with a build around bat an ace-level pitcher. Every team would want that. They've managed to check off some of the top 2 boxes in the checklist. The problem is the next 10 or so. 

Monday Quickie : ASG break

The Nats did not get better after the firings. The 1-5 run isn't anything off than expected, facing two good teams away from home 2-4 is the baseline with 1-5 and 3-3 happening almost as easy. This is not a good team, and it's still being run by Davey's guys so don't expect any miracles. 

The big thing that happened was the draft. I don't usually care much about the draft, but in the past the Nats having the #1 pick with generational talents has made me take a closer look at it. That was a long time ago. The Nats had the #1 pick again this year but with no clear Strasburg or Harper it was a big question mark on who to take.  Guys ranked by one group as #1 might be #7 elsewhere. 

The Nats went with Eli Willitis, son of a former major leaguer. He's a guy with no holes in his make-up and seems destined to make the majors, with the general thinking is a good bet to be a very solid top of the line-up type player. If things don't pan out then he might be a super-sub type, where as if he surprises he could be a star.  It's a "safe"* pick in a draft like this that featured no wow player. With the Nats eschewing from pitching it seemed like the other choice could have been Ethan Holliday (another major league scion) who had more top-end potential but also potential holes like a lack of projectible defensive skills and a tendency to swing and miss. 

Holliday seems like a Rizzo pick to me. Rizzo liked to take big swings in the draft, be it with raw talent (Brady House, Elijah Green), or injury concerns (Rendon, Giolito, Fedde)  or what have you. I never felt like this was a terrible idea. You only need to hit once every 5+ years to really impact your team. But it did leave the minors usually barren of the type of decent players that making more standard picks run into. And when he didn't hit that post-Rendon guy the Nats ended up with a organization with limited depth. That they went with Willitis feels like a change even if it was Rizzo's guy originally.  We will likely never know. 

This team needs this break to reset completely and figure out who they are. They should spend the next few weeks dumping guys with no future here (Finnegan, Bell, Williams, Call - won't get more than you can now, Rosario - ditto), either through lottery ticket trades or DFAs. Then just let the kids play. Then attack FA and the trade market in the off-season. 2025 has long been over. A competitive 2026 is the goal now. 

 

 

*as safe as any draft pick can be, mind you.  

Monday Not-Quickie : Firing on all cylinders

What's next? 

1) New guys take over... for now. 

Mike DeBartolo is the new GM.  He's young, with a business bent. He's been with the Nats a long time with a role in a lot of different aspects and he's familiar with analytics. Still I imagine with no baseball leadership experience and his history being the second guy on a team who just fired it's GM I assume he's a placeholder. 

Miguel Cairo, bench coach, is the likely choice for interim manager. 

What is on DeBartolo's plate is the draft. He's likely to have been involved and with the first pick the Nats have a pretty decent sense of the 1-3 guys they are looking at. The later rounds have never been good to Rizzo so DeBartolo can't do worse. 

Miguel's got to rally the team but after Davey's "don't blame the coaches" rant that may be easier done. Also compared to the effort they've put out so far even winning 3 out of every 7 would be an improvement. 

Don't expect a new coach in before the end of the year. There isn't really a point. But I'd like to see a new GM in as soon as possible. The draft might be a pass for them. The big focus is on early rounds and your position in the draft and your minor league system means a lot when you make those picks. Any other guy is looking at a different set of players than Rizzo would have been. But I do want the next GM to be here for the trade deadline to begin making the team his.  

Who would I like to take over? Assuming this team is going to be run cheap - you want someone from an org that understands how to win with limitations, Tampa, Cleveland, Milwaukee...

For manager?  If we're going with my heart, let Matty LeCroy take it.  I love that guy.   Also a heart choice but with more thought into it, Rick Sweet is a LONG time minor league manager with seemingly decent skills at mentoring young players.  Let him have his one shot at the majors with a bunch of kids that can make some noise. 

Hey if my "get Rick Short" out of the minors push worked 20 years ago, maybe it can work for all "Rick" five-letter last names that start with S and end with t? 

2)  Fallout.  

Rizzo hinted at some bad blood, probably wants one more shot, and we all think the ownership isn't... at it's best. What sort of hit jobs do we see on the Lerners, or on Rizzo the untouchable king, or on Davey no longer in a position of power? 

Also why now? Why both? What was the process? That usually does come out one way or another.  If you like drama we might see some

3) Does anything else change? 

Ownership could also be ready for a change. With Rizzo and Davey out that's a clean slate for a buyer and we know the Lerners broached selling the team earlier. Could they be up for doing it again? We generally think Mark wants to stay, the siblings and their hubbies want to sell, and no strong decisions can be made unless everyone agrees. If this is all true that's no way to run a franchise, one hamstrung sibling trying to hobble along. You can feel sorry for Mark in this situation a little bit, but by holding on to the team he's making things worse for it.  If you can't put money into it NOW you got to sell 

EMERGENCY FIRING POST 2

You all know how I feel.  Davey deserved to get fired as much as any manager who won a WS has, at least on performance.  His teams regularly underperformed expectations, including this year, and they regularly failed at the fundamentals, or at least it felt like it.  I won't rehash it anymore. You can go back and read what I said a few posts ago.  I think it's best for the Nats he's gone. 

Rizzo is more complicated.  As others have pointed out, Rizzo has a skill set; a steady hand, decent media presence (mainly because it's limited), a good read of other teams young talent, a savvy trader.  He also has some flaws; poor draft record, questionable FA eye on the fringes, a bit "my way or the highway" attitude with little sense of taking blame for team failures. It's a mixed bag, but one that lead to a 7-10 season run of relevance and a season in 2025 where three of the hottest young players all reside on his team. You can not like him, you can say his skill set doesn't quite work for the way this team might be run going forward, but you can't say he's bad.  

But even his quote suggests - "Hey not my fault" which it certainly partly is.  We mentioned the swings and misses in the drafts, allowing Davey and his calvacade of subpar coaches to stay here as long as they did, this year's decision to get a full house of other people's trash and missing on them so very badly that three relievers were gone before Memorial Day. If he really can't see that - he has to go. 

Usually ownership groups give GMs the chance to move on from managers before forcing them out. That Rizzo was gone too is interesting.  Did Rizzo ride or die with Davey?  He seemed to really like him and work well with him. 

What happens next will be everything because this is a team with some great young pieces that needs to spend in the off-season. If they do the person making those decisions will be of paramount importance and the person leading the team will matter too.  

EMERGENCY FIRING POST

DAVEY OUT! 

RIZZO OUT!

The Post if you have it

What was the final straw? You'd have to assume the lifeless play in the past month+  9-23 since the end of May.  The team looks bad. The feeling around the team is bad. 

More tomorrow later tonight.  Too much to wait until tomorrow but you know I got kids stuff to do right now

Ed Note- internet down and my cell reception at my house is spotty so nothing more tonight  

Ed Note 2 - It's back! 

went on vacation

Like the Nats in general  

 They are now nearly what I feared they'd be last post.  Worst of the rest. Only the Athletics are standing in their way.  They are clearly behind the Marlins now. Hell so are the Braves. 

Things have gotten so bad the team is trying to get you excited for the idea of Paul DeJong coming back and DHing even though he can't hit. 

What the hell are we doing here people? 

 

Kick anyone over 27 to the curb.  Just play kids.  See where you end up. Spend a bunch of money in the off-season. That's where we are.  

 

 

Monday Quickie - closing in

 on the worst "trying" team in baseball

The Rockies, despite sweeping the Nats, are historically bad.  They are on pace for 37 wins.  There literally should be calls from the game to replace the owner because things are so non-competitive in Denver. 

The White Sox are in a similar spot, Reinsdorf aging into a worse version of himself as owner often do stuck with a "back in my day we didn't pay players so much" mentality, trying to squeeze every last dollar from the team for years leading to another terrible team in 2025. This is a cycle and this year the WHite Sox are the one at the nadir, on the path for the low 50s in wins. However, they are finally in the process of being sold

The other teams down here are of a similar bent. The Pirates, Athletics, and Marlins are all infamous for not really trying. Instead trying to be "Tampa Bay Lite" investing in the minors enough to hope to cobble together a decent 1-2 year squad that pushes .500 and a Wild Card a couple times a decade.  Maybe every couple decades have things line up right for a brief window of actual contention.  The Orioles, recently sold, look to be adding their name to this list, squandering a decent base of youth. And the Royals probably belong in this group, but are having that cobbled together squad couple years that we just talked about.  (I do think they push a bit more than the others when things line up) 

So it's down here, with the likes of these teams that the Nats sit. And its not because of a run of terrible luck (Hey Braves!) or a that this is the low point in a rebuilding process, that was a couple years ago. No it's earned and deserved. The Nats are a team with all the hallmarks of not trying. It is what we noted going into this year. This was the year to start trying. They did not. That's a warning sign. 

Luckily for the Nats fans they don't have a history of doing this. So maybe it's not actually happening. Maybe the Nats aren't becoming a team like those noted above.  Maybe it's just a one year blip, trying to get timing right. Maybe. 

 But it's hard to get hopes up when you know at least part of the ownership group wants out. And it's hard to get hopes up when having the 3rd lowest winning percentage of all active managers while constantly throwing your team under the bus, can't get a manager fired. And it's hard when you have a guy turning into an ace and a budding superstar on your team and you don't hear a peep about long-term signings. 

 I still say it's a low-mid 70s win team, I still say they catch a run. I still say hold out hope for this off-season.  What can I say, I'm an eternal optimist. But I don't blame you if you don't. 

Update : Fire Davey Quicker

And Fire Rizzo. 

And Sell the Team  

 

Look I've been an advocate for Rizzo, who can deal with the best of them, and is perfectly acceptable at IDing long range contract targets (some bomb, some work out - that's just how it goes). But sticking by Davey here isn't about results or Davey's proven track record with kids (which doesn't exist), it's about keeping a guy who doesn't complain about the roster at all and works quietly with whatever he's given.  Rizzo bombed in his FA acquisitions this off-season but Davey won't complain. Nor will he eat the blame. That's the trade off. 

As for the Lerners. I think Ted wanted to win, and fought through his more.. penurious tendencies (remember the "wait you want to Fed Ex this stuff?") to pay for an expensive team.  I think Mark wants to win but Mark isn't solo in charge. It's Mark and siblings who are more inclined to sell than win. Without the backing of an owner who will spend you are completely at the whim of timing on getting a window open for a brief period of time (see Pirates, Pittsburgh).  That's no way for a team to be run, hitting 3 year windows every generation. 

 

This offseason will either cement these feelings or prove them wrong, but they aren't things I've said before and I don't mean them lightly. Fix what's broken or stop being in charge.  

Monday Quickie - Fire Davey

Fire Davey.  

The man can't help but blame the players and I don't want that type of guy leading this team.  Maybe a veteran team can ignore him or maybe he wouldn't dare anger those guys, but this isn't a veteran team. It's a team of kids and they need someone to support and shield them.  

There are numerous reasons to fire the guy. His behavior this weekend pushes that all aside to get to number 1. Even if you landed on "well he won the series and changing the manager doesn't really matter" I don't see how you can still want to keep the guy. 

Slow fade

 Are we talking about this blog or the Nats? Hey yo! 

After the nice run that ended with a sweep of Arizona the Nats have played, as we've gone over before, like you'd expect a 75 win team to play.  Competitive enough that you would be surprised at them being swept in two straight series. Not good enough that you'd really expect them to win two straight series against better teams. 

And there are a fair number of better teams.  The dregs of the NL remain the dregs, the Rockies, Marlins, and Pirates playing their own game on how to not even try. The Nats are clearly better than that but only Atlanta stands below them and that's because the Braves are on one of the craziest runs of bad luck you'll ever see*. The Nats are not bad, but they are at least a half-step behind 3/4 of the rest of the National League, honestly a half-step behind 75% of baseball after you throw the not trying White Sox, Athletics, and new to the group Orioles, in there. 

Outside of Alex Call no one is hot right now and when Wood is putting up a .095 / .174 / .095 line in the past couple weeks you know the offense is grinding to a halt.  

I'll say I see 3 interesting things going on though

1) Gore is solidifying into that ace. We've brought it up occasionally but watching him last night the guy is in a zone and when he's there he's unhittable and that my friend, is an ace.  For Nats fans that means a real fun 6 innings of baseball watching every 5 games. It also means OH MY GOD THEY NEED TO SIGN HIM LONG TERM.  These type of guys don't come around often. You need these types. You can replace a bat somewhat but an arm? You have to gamble on them when you have the opportunity. I don't see a winning Nats team in 3 years without this guy

 2) The bullpen, free of the terrible signings and decisions to open the year, is getting better. Yes, that's funny to after another bullpen loss but Ferrer gave up hits to Soto and Alonso - two of the better hitters in the game. It happens. Henry got beat in extras but the game is designed now for a run to score. In the past two weeks these guys have pitched much better and actually haven't been the main reason the Nats have lost anymore

 3) Soroka threw a really good game. 7 Ks, 2 hits, no homers.  The guy is here to be traded. If he can come around SP is such in need he will fetch something mildly interesting. 

Sadly with the recent slide we're back to making our own stories from the team.  There is one last chance for that to change though. 7 games against MIA and COL at home coming up.  Say split the next two vs the Mets and go 6-1 in those 7 and end up 36-38 into the West Coast swing?  One last run at trying to be interesting? Do you have it in you boys? 

 

*they recently lost 5 1-run games in a row and have lost their last 12 1 or 2 run games.  

These kids aren't alright

This doesn't have anything to do with the Cubs series. 1 of 3 from the Cubs is what should be expected and seeing Gore look like an ace again is great. However, we are in the "stats are real now" part of the season and last time we looked at the kids whose stats said real good things about them. CJ Abrams continues to be cool but I noted his propensity for extended cold streaks was keeping him from being special. That's not the point, he's still overall good. The only one with a real issue out of that group was Jackson Rutledge. I mentioned he could fall back and he really has. Still he's not young but he IS new to relief pitching.  He's still learning. We'll see. 

So while there are kids who look good this year there are others who do not. 

 

Keibert Ruiz has been in free fall since a hot start. While there was hope from some on here than his general lack of hitting was due to previous injury and now that he's healthy he would go back to being decent that hasn't been the case.  He remains extremely good at squaring up and meeting pitches. This lets him maintain one of the lowest strikeout rates in the game.  Unfortunately he's bad at picking which pitches to try to hit (Chase rate is high), he's bad at generating any sort of power (exit velocity, etc. is very low), he doesn't get the ball up enough (launch angle too low), and he's super slow so he's not going to leg anything out. He also doesn't identify pitches well (as noted by that chase rate) so his walk rate is very low.  You can sort of take a bad hitting catcher if they can field but Ruiz is generally considered a poor defensive catcher (though one with an ok arm).  We're getting very close to having to accept that despite the contract Ruiz is neither the catcher of the future or the catcher of now. 

 

Fleet of foot Jacob Young make Keibert look like James Wood when it comes to power. One of the weakest bats in baseball who gets nothing up in the air, I'm sure this combination worked for him all through his career so far. He could leg out enough hits and play stellar defense. But the margins on that working get slimmer and slimmer and the body gets slower and slower and Jacob is rapidly approaching a point where he has to do something better to stick around.  It could be that he walks a bit better. Never really his strong suit but he is a little better this year and he doesn't chase. Maybe if he does that he can set himself up as a 5th OF. That would be a disappointment given the Nats hopes when he rose up the minors at a decent clip but honestly it would be a win given his draft position. He was never a prospect. 

 

Speaking of OFs despite the assurances of the rabble in the comments (rabble I said!) Dylan Crews's too early actual stats meant more than his too early fancy stats, and he's seen his performance level out while his fancy stats drop to meet what he is doing. He strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough in general and his fielding, which was supposed to be stellar, has simply been adequate so far. I don't come here to bury Crewsar though. He immediately improved his walk rate after a dreadful start and before his injury was beginning to generate more power. The fancy stats, now like all stats more real with a third of a season down, suggest unlike Ruiz and Young, the guy can swing a bat. He doesn't chase and he can really nail it when he gets it right. He just doesn't do it often enough yet. It does seem like it's a matter of time before he's a productive major leaguer. From there we can discuss what that means, but we gotta get there first and to do that he's gotta get back from injury. Why is he in the "aren't alright" section? He's alright to me! Well because this isn't what anyone was hoping for the guy when drafted. You wanted an impact star ASAP and he's simply not that. Reset expectations from 10 to 8 and see where he goes and we'll all be fine* 

 

This isn't bad for a split of what kids are working and what aren't, especially when you consider only Ruiz is really crashing out. Young is merely not overperforming like hoped, and Crews is just not an immediate ROY candidate. Both of these guys can still be valuable, even very valuable in Crews' case, hitting below the high targets that had been set. 

There is a base, we all can see it. It could be an actual foundation with guys like Garcia and Ferrer being ok and more kids on the way. But what the FAs are doing is killing the team and they are going to need some good FA signings to put this team over the top.  

*You're going to yell at me again, aren't you?  

 

Monday Quickie : Hey hey!

 I'm thankful for a lot but I'm very thankful today that the Nats team is winning in strong fashion and not sneaking out close wins because if there's one thing that I hate (and as you can probably tell there are many) it's the trite re-use of the "Cardiac" nickname for any team of young players (Cardiac Kids!) or whose name slightly allows it because of a similar sound (CardiAc NAts!). That isn't happening here. I can breathe. 

 I'm also thankful for a great weekend of Nats baseball to liven up the season that had a chance to go very moribund. It actually pushed them to a nice little 10-3 run and relevance? Not quite. But another one of those from relevance! 

The recent push has been helped along not by James Wood being a stud (look the guy is a star at the plate and it's time we just start talking like he is as opposed to some young player than might be something). Josh Bell and Luis Garcia starting to hit again... and enough timely hitting to score the runs needed to back up the pitching. 

Gore had a couple of ace like performances and the pen 2.0. Brad Lord, Cole Henry, Jose Ferrer until his arm breaks are doing very well.  

When can you get "excited"? Let's set our sights on June 13th.  The Nats will be past the tough stretch and looking at 7 games against the Marlins and Rockies. I know the Nats have been kind of up against the good, down against the bad, but the Rockies are so bad that supercedes that. Just look at the last 3 game set. The Nats were the closest the Rockies came to winning a series, winning one and losing two 1-run games but they still didn't do it.

We talked about not getting too low before, nor should you get too high.  I still think this is a 75 win team. But seasons where you can pretend it's more, where you flirt with being meaningful before a late fall, are more fun that seasons when you can't. Nats are almost there. It's almost fun, you know in a "not the usual fun of just watching baseball fun" A couple more good weeks would do it. 

These kids are allright

It's Review the Team Memorial Day Week (tm)(r) (c) and after 53 games (1 game under 1/3 of the season) there are bright spots in the Nats "Still rebuilding?" season. 

James Wood has got to be first and foremost.  We won't reiterate every point we've made so far this year about the budding superstar but he's gotten a tiny bit less selective in order to smash the ball more and that has worked out well. Not that he was ever too selective. He grips and rips. But he also has a good sense of the strike zone so he grips and rips at pitches he can usually hit. If pitchers beat him, good for them, but they are going to have to do just that. 

He still could get better. I don't think it has to do with plate approach. This is working for him. However if he could hit a few fewer ground balls (52.8%) we're talking more screeching line drives and balls over the fence.  The BA might drop a little, or honestly it might not, but if it does the trade off in extra XBHs would likely be worth it. 

He still needs to field better or the Nats need to look at him as a DH. Let's not make the Soto mistake again trying to convince ourselves someone bad is ok out there because they are young. Yes, Wood is more athletic, truly fast, but he's not a good fielder. Being strong doesn't make you a good hitter. Its skills and he doesn't have it at this level. I mean keep him out there if he wants to be. The hits matter more. But if he's agreeable to it, it's probably the right idea. 

We recently talked about CJ Abrams but he's improved every year he's been in the majors across two teams and he's hitting his stride now with a stretch to start the year as good as any that he has put up. He has cooled down in the past week so he didn't get to "best stretch ever" but if this isn't the introduction to a cold stretch he's going to end up with his best season ever. Like Wood he's swinging harder and it's paying off, though unlike Wood he's not every selective and that probably will keep him a step behind Wood as maybe a star but not a superstar. I suppose he could learn that once he sustains strong hitting without going into long droughts. 

Fielding wise Abrams is like Wood in that he stinks and probably shouldn't be playing his position. Unlike Wood though DH doesn't feel right for him. His arm is fine for 3B but his reaction time is slow.  If it wasn't his speed would be making him have elite range instead of terrible range. This has been very consistent over his career. You have to keep his bat and legs in the line-up so... second base in his future?  

 

It's early in both the transition and season to judge a relief pitcher but Cole Henry seems to have taken to the role like a fish to water. If not for one horrendous outing against the Mets he'd be sporting a 0.00 ERA. He's not the traditional reliever though blowing guys away or getting them to jam the ball into the ground. No, he's a flyball guy but guys at the plate don't read his stuff well and can't hit him hard. It's not necessarily the standard recipe for success so the fancy stats don't love him but until he stops inducing that type of contact you kind of gotta assume he can keep it up. Given he's not stressing his arm trying to throw 100MPH screwballs if he simply keeps up what he's doing it seems like he could have a long successful career in the pen. 

In a similar but lesser vein Jackson Rutledge has done well converting to the pen as well. He's more in line with the throwing smoke get grounders reliever types though not quite fast enough while still being prone to fits of wildness. There's room for improvement but he's under 20 games into his relief career on any level. Chances are he can improve a bit and he's already sitting at a level that would be a good pen piece. The fancy stats don't love him and given his limited time here he's probably more likely for a fallback but why not be optimistic? Like I said he can get better.

 

Mackenzie Gore should be great. He really should be. He's leading the league in K/9 right now, and has perfectly reasonable number for hits, homers, and walks. Everything is showing a marked improvement from last year.  And yes he is better but he should still be even better than what he's showing and should be showing even more improvement.  What's up? It seems like batters don't usually hit Gore but when they do they REALLY do. Mostly they can't hit his pitches but when they can they can easily squared up. That seems to suggest his mistakes are big ones. The bad curves don't miss they hang. The bad fastballs aren't off the plate they are meatballs. If he can fix that and he's an ace. But all this complaining is about a guy who's a 1/2 right now and that's good! 

Jake Irvin is fine.  I know we want more and the ERA sort of suggests more but he's a 4.25-4.50 ERA pitcher and you know what? That's ok.  He has good control of the strike zone, and controls the running game so the hits and homers he will give up, and he will, aren't game losing. Sit at the back of the rotation for the next 2-3 years and let the Nats not worry about one spot. Who can complain about that? 

Mitchell Parker is basically Jake Irvin, with a couple big exceptions.  First he seems to have a skill in keeping the ball in the park. I can hazard to guess it's mostly because he's left-handed. All the things that make Irvin ok - a couple pitches that look the same and a great extension giving the batter a few micro-seconds fewer to react - Parker has something similar but you see a lot fewer LHP. Given that, the batters have a slightly more difficult time reading Parker, swing at more pitches out of the zone and hit more balls to the opposite field. This doesn't really limit hits but homers are about hitting the right pitch perfectly and it just seems harder to do that against Mitchell.  The other thing would be he's 2 1/2 years younger and while Jake is Jake, Mitchell could get better. I'm not sold that he will but he could. If he doesn't, he should join Jake in the back of the rotation for several years and maybe you don't need two of those types in theory but in practice the more rotation worthy pitchers you have the better. 

Monday Quickie

 After a sweep (two games but still counts!) of Atlanta the Nats hosted SF and lost 2 of 3 with a fairly anemic offensive output. Now they face a fairly daunting stretch, traveling cross-country to take on AL West leading Seattle and the NL Wild Card hopeful Arizona Diamondbacks, then back home for a series against the Cubs.  It's Memorial Day week so things are now "real" and getting 4 wins here would be great for a team hoping to scrape .500. A 1-2 win blow-out would basically make it a claw-back summer.  (so as usual expect the 3 wins) 

Tomorrow we'll start going over the 1/3 of the season situation now that guys like Mitchell Parker have returned to Earth and James Wood has not

In the meantime Read Rosenthal's fairly scathing take on the Nats. "Good teams both spend and develop. The Nationals do neither" Ouch!

Rosenthal: Nationals remain among MLB’s bottom feeders despite lengthy rebuild - The Athletic

Darkest before the dawn

 But it's also really dark pretty much an hour after sunset so who really knows.

 The point is : Winning Streak!  

The Nats crushed the Orioles, coming back late on Friday and winning back to back games that were almost over before the 3rd inning began. Last night they continued the hot starts, scoring 4 runs before getting out of the second. This little run has taken them from the "oh uh are they among the worst non Colorado teams in baseball?" back to "this is who we thought they'd be" and a 72 win pace. As we are nearing Memorial Day weekend and the usual "OK NOW let's seriously look at these guys" I think this should be the general consensus on how to look at the season. Ups and downs will happen. It's a 70-75 win team. I'll be genuinely surprised at anything else through the trade deadline (after that rosters and targets can change) 

If you are a Nats fan - basically the last 7 days were what you wanted to see. Abrams and Wood leading the team with great lines across 6 games. Crews knocking a couple out of the park while not striking out at all the last two games. Jacob Young going 3 for 8 in limited time.  Luis Garcia doing ok.  It was a good week for the young core.  Let's hope Crews MRI isn't serious but the kid is young without much injury history so I'm cautiously optimistic there.

We mentioned CJ Abrams a couple posts ago and it's worth going back to him because this guy was meant to be a star, a Top 10 prospect in all of baseball two years in a row. These things are not guaranteed, but when you've managed to corral three of them onto your team at the same time chances of you going 0-3 has gotta be very slim. It could be that Abrams is just having an extended hot streak but it's just as hot as anything he had going last year.  He had a 36 game run of .309 / .401 / .561 centered around June, he's at .313 / .371 / .569.  Another week like this and he'll put that 2024 streak behind him. Abrams did start his career in a worse spot than people thought but every year Abrams has improved. This could be the "put it together" year.  

The Soto trade will work out for the Nats in numbers but then it was always going to do that. Nearly every trade of a vet for kids gives you generally more value.  The pure numbers guys love to talk about that even though really would you want 5 kids giving you 13 WAR over 5 seasons or one guy giving you 10 over 2+?  I hope you understand the latter is more conducive to, you know, winning stuff. 

BUT the Soto trade may actually just work out period. Wood looks to be a star. Right there it's almost a push. Abrams being a star too? Hard to not say it's a win, even if it took a couple years. Gore flirting with being an ace? Ok now it's a clear win. Jarlin Susana given he's just 21, remains a Nats top pitching prospect. He's hanging in in AA which is a perfectly fine place for him to be. And that brings us to the last piece*, Robert Hassell.

With Crews going down the Nats are bringing up Hassell from AAA. Hassell's journey has been kind of a long one.  He was seen as a very strong prospect, dominating A-ball at age 19, but hurt his hand in 2022 and has been trying to play through his return to the game.  2023 was dismal but 2024 showed signs of life and with the space available in AAA Hassell has gotten his chance there.  The results are... mixed. Overall he's hitting ok, but not walking enough and his power is pretty moderate.  His May overall has been very good but that was more a scorching opening week than a sustained performance. It's likely he won't perform in the majors but he's not here to do that. He's here to get a taste. 

The overall point though with these kids coming into form is the Nats have to do something to support this round.  It isn't as strong as the 2011ish time frame where generational picks, kids, and slow starters all lined up perfectly. This is just kids and mostly just bats. Where's their Gio? Where's their Werth? The Nats did set up some pieces for success. This past off-season was the time to strike. This next off-season will be late but better late than never. 

*well technically Luke Voit was that 

Weekend Goals

 Clearly the run to near .500 didn't work out. Instead they went 1-5 vs Cleveland and St. Louis and followed that up with a 1-3 set versus Atlanta. Now they are facing Baltimore - the last bad team they'll play until the middle of June.  

For all the small victories the Nats can have I do think a series win against Baltimore ranks up there.  "We might be bad, but we're not YOU guys" The good news is even a 1-2 series loss puts the teams at even for the season.  So just don't get swept. That isn't too much to ask.

Keep pounding

 Davey inherted a team that went 95 and 97 and in the next three season with mostly the same roster went 82-80!!!!, 93-69, and 26-34!!!!. With an admittedly slightly worse roster went... 65-97!!!! Still with maybe the best hitter in baseball the year after went 55-107!!!!

 

Arguably unestablished somewhat raised in the org Nats with significant playing time that left at 29 or younger :

• Victor Robles, dog house guy for Davey, finally left at 27.  Went to Seattle and hit like a star for half a season. 
• Michael A Taylor flourished under Dusty, immediately back-tracked under Davey, traded away and showed another solid couple years left in him. 
• Joe Ross had the worst two seasons of his career under Davey before a decent one in 2021.  in 2024, his first healthy season after leaving had a better season than ever under Davey'
• Erick Fedde, did come together under Davey... and then lost it again.  Better seasons in 2024 and 2025 than ever under Davey
• Austin Voth started hot under Davey but degraded to the point of almost being out of the game.  A credible starter in Baltimore and reliever in Seattle since.
• Wilmer Difo, WILMER DIFO, decent cup of coffee under Dusty, got worse under Dusty but even more so under Davey to the point he was almost out of baseball. Went to Pittsburgh  PITTSBURGH and had an average year.

On the flip side... you have to stretch and say maybe Andrew Stevenson and Tres Barrera were guys that got a real shot here that didn't do any better elsewhere. Maybe Tanner Rainey though he's only 3 appearances into 2025.  

 You want me to say something nice?  Well if you want to say Soto is Daveys then maybe he is the right manager for an amazing HOF level talent young player. Wood seems to be doing just fine. Gore we can argue about if he's reaching his potential, but is certainly better, so far this year. Maybe him and Mitchell Parker vibe? 

But Abrams, a high quality player has been streaky and already had one beef with the manager. Luis Garcia Jr seems to have a similar hot cold performance matched up with a just cold relationship. Crews, we can at least agree he's struggling, right? I'm not going to get called out as a Crews hater for noting a guy hitting .181 / .239 / .313 a quarter into the season is struggling, am I? 

 

The guy keeps failing. Dusty, original Davey, and even Matt Williams didn't fail like this. Frank Robinson has a better winning percentage with the Nats. Hell Jim Riggleman has a better winning percentage with the Nats. 

Maybe it IS the roster.  Hell I'll agree and say it's gotta mostly be the roster.  I don't think Davey on the Dodgers makes them a .500 team. But what is here that makes you think he needs to stay because this record, this history says he has to go. 

But hey, I'll meet you half-way.  In conceding most managers are generally fine, we can fire Davey but we can hire back Manny Acta for you.

FIX THE PEN

 Or honestly fix Davey. 

From last night's post-game presser Davey trotted out the old very thoroughly debunked idea that you don't use your closer on the road in the 9th in a tie game. The idea is "well what if you need a save later?" which completely ignores the reality that you need to get to the point you need a save. YOU CAN'T SAVE A GAME YOU ALREADY LOST! The math all works out - you want to constantly put your best pitcher out there if you can.  Obviously rest and match-ups all come into consideration but that's the basic truth.  

There are good arguments that managers have a limited effect and it's hard to judge good vs bad when it's the roster construction that matters most in baseball. It's far less a place where a good coach can "take his'un and beat your'un and take your'un and beat his'un"  That being said, if all that we can do is take a look at the record and judge on vibes, I ask : when have the vibes around this team been any good since 2019? Maybe last year they were passable? 

The old school policing. The general lack of ever taking blame? Are we just waiting around to hope the mix  of players hits right again, and Rizzo limits him bullpen options again, so that he can maybe get a team back to the promised land. 

 I know winning percentage is a bad stat to use but also "lowest winning percentage of a manager to win a World Series" has to account for something. "Every single one of those ones with better winning percentages must have just had better teams" doesn't follow, at least to me. 

And if winning percentage doesn't matter why does winning a series? That's mostly the team, right? Like you have to pick a side and either say these things matter just a little and the last 5+ seasons are telling one story or these things don't matter at all and who cares who manages and in that case just fire the guy. 

The way I see it the only arguments for keeping him are "who cares?" or a carefully constructed house of cards where winning the Series 6 years ago counts more today than the 5 seasons that followed because of reasons and we also have to generally ignore half of that season and various questionable strategic decisions and the fact he seemed to be given a purposely limited roster in order to quell his worst impulses and all the obvious luck it takes to win short series?  

Go ahead make your arguments if they aren't these.  I'd love to hear them. I was done with this guy after 2022. Nothing since has proven me wrong. Maybe you have the secret argument.

Monday Quickie - as dead as the team

Yes, I'm not posting as much.  Busy and the team quickly became uninteresting. I should just resort to putting up pics of James Wood.

The Nats got swept by the mediocre Cardinals. Have lost their last 5 after clawing their way back to 2 games under .500.  There's a fairly decent stretch of good teams coming up. ATL, who has basically been an above average team since their awful start for 7 games, SFG, SEA, ARI, CHC, NYM with only Texas and Baltimore for breaks.  Still. before we pack it in let's remember the Nats have played oddly good against good teams and oddly bad against bad ones.

Positives

Lucas Sims is gone.  After trying to hold onto him as long as possible to get value out of that 3 million dollar deal he signed the Nats finally let him go, meaning both of the obvious Opening Day roster mistakes of Poche and Sims are finally gone. Two guys that were bad bets, that performed poorly in Spring Training, that should have never made the roster, finally where they should be : Not here. It's not that the Nats have a ton of solid replacements lined up, or even interesting AAA arms. It's just that even uninteresting AAA arms are a lottery ticket where as Sims and Poche were just wet pieces of paper with maybe numbers written on them, you can't tell it's all smeared.

Let's talk about CJ Abrams 

Since back from his mild injury Abrams is raking to the tun of .357 / .423 / .486.  Abrams and Wood in the top of the order is an exciting combo. Adding Lowe as a general solid bat means a tough inning for any pitcher.  He's swinging at a few more pitches and striking out a touch more but it's more than made up for by hitting the ball a lot harder and at a better angle meaning fewer GB and more line drives. 

We've seen this type of run from Abrams before but at 24 there's still time to think this is sustainable and if it is that means two stars at the plate under 25. That's something right?

Monday Quickie - Nats win a series

This demands a blog post said the commenter so ok. Here! 

Actually this is more - Monday so I can do this short and sweet and I don't care. 

Nats are weird. They've won series from Arizona, Cincinnati, and the Dodgers.  They've lost to the terrible Marlins and the Pirates. Are they as good as the best or as bad as the worst? 

Parker looked bad again matching the "he can't keep that up" stuff we talked about earlier. Williams was not good but it didn't matter. Gore looked more like "good last year Gore" but that's ok if he can make that his usual floor. As we saw that can still hold a good team in check for a chunk of the game. 

The offense feels perfectly ok with Abrams back. I like what Lowe is doing and I think when the weird 1B renaissance calms down (check out some of the names of guys hitting real well at 1B) I think he'll settle into the Top 10. 

I do wish Davey would settle on a line-up but that is not his style. If I'm not wrong they've used 30 different lineups in 35 games.

Plug along. Get better. Don't let anyone get hurt. 

You know what - let's go for more than that.  The Indians aren't this good - they have a weird "get blown-out or win close" thing going on that usually settles on "not that good".  The Cardinals are just perfectly meh. The Nats can win both the home series, go 4-2 and get the fans thinking about .500. 

Where the Nats stand - May

The 2025 picture

The Nats sit at 14-18 today  7 games out of first place in the East and 3.5 out of the final WC spot. Of course numbers like this are silly early (everyone but the Rockies are "in it"). Really it's more looking at rank and the teams around the Nats. 

In the NL East  the Nats have successfully passed the Marlins, but the Braves have successfully passed the Marlins and the Nats after a slow start.  Everything is now pretty much where we expected with two of the Mets/Phillies/Braves fighting for the lead with the third disappointing in some way and the Nats over the Marlins at the back end. No surprises. 

In the WC, you have the Padres and Diamondbacks and the 2nd place Mets/Phillies team and then a few surprises. The Giants have made a nice jump into one of the better starts, the Reds might be better than we think. And the Cubs and Brewers have flip-flopped with the Cubs securely in first and the Brewers in the WC mess. The Nats are a step behind these types in with the "non-competitors" but looking better than the dregs

IOW - for a team that did little to improve in the off-season, unsurprisingly they are playing out to be a lot like last year in terms of competitiveness - meaning not very. 

Individually

A month isn't enough to get a good feel of players seasons but it is enough time for extreme outliers to be looked at to wonder if we hadn't gotten anything wrong in the evaluation of them. IOW - while they should feel some reversion, they may be a step or two better/worse than we thought they were and those bounces won't be as large.

While several young players are scuffling, Josh Bell's start is probably the most worrisome as he was set to be the DH for the season. He's simply not hitting the ball hard at all. He has no speed so if he can't hit for power he's a bad singles hitter. He's making up for it a tiny bit by walking more but that can't nearly compensate.  He could be done, not that crazy for DH type closing in on 33, who peaked at merely good and declined last year as well.

A player more likely to be done though is Paul DeJong. While his glove work remains very good he has not been a good hitter in years, and has been actively bad recently. While Bell might not be right in some way, DeJong still sees the ball well enough to make the correct bat/ball contact, but he can't generate enough bat speed to make that matter. 

We should also keep an eye on Nasim Nunez, whose time in the majors has been limited but also has not hit in AAA this year. Given that he's never been a hitter and he's approaching an age where you'd expect a hitter to really shine he may never have the bat to matter in the majors. A mild waste of effort for the team. 

On the positive side Wood's 2025 has begun with a bang. Lots of them. He is not your traditional great hitter, hitting everything well. Rather he swings hard and gets it right enough to have an extremely positive presence at the plate. As he came up the ranks everyone thought he would be good. It's leaning more toward "superstar" after April. 

For our eye-on player Alex Call, while not quite having a full month, is doing very well. A player that has had these stretches in the past and is 30 (31 in September) tends to be less likely to be a break out surprise but we're taking what we can get.  

Ruiz and Abrams (limited time) look good. Crews, Young, Tena (limited time) do not. But these are "come back at the end of May" results, not extreme

 

Pitchers have larger gaps between what has happened (ERA) and what they've done (fancy stats) and less fit in this mold for review, but we'll give it a go. By results Mitchell Parker qualifies as someone who might really be better than expectations. We talked about before why that was unlikely though and his last game basically went as poorly as a Mitchell Parker game can go. Finnegan is good but also is driven by giving up zero home runs without pumping his GB rate or anything.

Instead of these two, I'd lean into Jackson Rutledge, who may or may not be a good reliever but in limited time has shown some flashes and Gore who pitches like an ace enough that you kind of have to believe it can happen. 

On the down side is basically "the pen" with Poche, Sims, Ribalta and Salazar having just terrible results. Poche is gone now and Sims should follow soon. The other guys though could revert to being just "last guy in pen" bad. 

Trevor Williams, Ferrer, Lopez, Henry all have started slow but again pitching needs even more time to right itself so just stick a pin in these results. 

 

The 2026 Picture

Given this is what they are playing for we should take a look at it and it's not so bad. Wood is rounding into a superstar and no young bat you are counting on is super worrisome at the moment. This could change if Crews has a May like April but let's see that happen. Ruiz is hitting which is good given their commitment to him and lack of another option. In the minors House looks good meaning the Nats could probably have a decent line-up in 2026 bc they'd only have to aim for a DH/1B and an OF (or 2 OF if Wood moves to DH). I wouldn't say things look super bright but you can look at the kids here and see a playoff offense next year with some moves

Pitching is murkier. You do like what you see of Gore and there's no reason to think Irvin/Parker/Lord/etc. couldn't hold down the 3/4/5. But the Nats kind of need an ace or at least a 2nd top pitcher and at least at this very early moment, that hasn't found its way to happening. Even worse Cade Cavalli, who has being counted on as a potential answer, could be hurt again. You can look to arms like Sykora and Susana to fill roles in the future but not really for 2026.

Still "one big bat and one ace" would be expensive but should be workable. Doing that an managing to "fix the entire pen" is a lot harder and right now that seems to be where the Nats organization lies. There is no standout here, no help in the minors, and a bunch of arms you are hoping to find usefulness from before looking for quality.  Hopefully May is kinder to Rutledge and Henry and we can reset this 

Overall

Honestly I'd say the Nats are where they should be for a team that didn't try very hard in the off-season and had a questionable, mostly "graduating" bat heavy upper minor leagues. They are going to be about the same this year. They are not going to get organizational pitching help. Whether they get much better relies mostly on kids bats doing a lot more than expected and right now that hasn't happened. 

As for 2026 you want the younger bats doing well and there's enough of that to feel ok. But you also were hoping for some younger surprises early preferably on the mound, and there hasn't been any of that. So the future doesn't seem any brighter, no dimmer either. It's still at the "could compete, will need significant management buy-in in the form of trades/FAs" 

So... on target I guess. Just wish that was this year because it's the same general place they are right now.

One run princes

8 out of the Nats last 12 games have been decided by one-run.  Another 2 by two runs. This remains not a bad team. It's a team that can hang. But it's not getting over the hump and the improvement in the offense by a couple of slow starters has simply gotten them here from "not close" 

What's up with Nats is lefties KILL them (hitting .307 / .392 / .525 for the season so far) and the relievers are trash.  How so? 

As a reliever 7.47 ERA, opponents hitting .291 / .403 / .472 

Late & Close?  .274 / .351 / .430 

The Nats pitchers get tired (5th Inning : 3.22 / .374 / .500) and the bullpen can't hold it (7th : .289 / .401 / .512, 8th : .349 / .414 / .481). 9th is a little better but overall a .305 / .403 / .865 line for innings 7-9 tell the tale. 

Yes, yes small sample and vagaries and whatever but this is getting ridiculous.  If everyone misses it's far more likely that you built a bad pen then everyone just happened to have a bad start. Yes, some of these guys are better than they show, but some should simply not be here. 

But today is the end of April so tomorrow we can do a full first month recap.  Not as "true" as the Memorial Day look at the team but a good start. Players have had time to work off bad weeks or come back down. Let's figure out a plan going forward tomorrow and see if they bother to follow it.

Monday Quickie - Well that was fun

After a dreary road trip where the Nats looked like they'd compete with the dregs they needed a pick me up and who better to give a team one than the Mets. Yes they had the best record in baseball but the Mets are still the Mets and they played like classic Mets.  A couple of late game meltdowns and the "stay in it" Nats good enough to take advantage. 

One game left in the series, finish it off.

A great former Nat is on his way home

Of course I mean Jesse Winker.  Who did you think?

The Mets come to town this weekend and in with them comes Juan Soto as well as the best record in baseball, a 5 game lead over Philly, and a 7 game winning streak following sweeps of the Cardinals and Phillies. Since the opening 3-game away set loss to the Astros the Mets have lost one series, amazingly to the Twins. Their pitching is great and the offense is doing enough.

At the plate we have to talk about Soto. He is starting slow, and by that he is only above average, an off month for him. He is walking a ton like always with solid power but his contact is a little off.  This has never been a problem for him so let's assume he gets that straightened out, just hopefully for you guys not this weekend. Soto isn't the problem though - none of the stars are. Alonso has been MVP-worthy and Lindor All-Star worthy. It's just what's around them that isn't working, Francisco Alvarez has been out, Baty and Vientos have been bad. Marte is old. Nimmo looks like an early career downslider. Winker is good but a platoon guy.

For the Mets though it comes down to pitching and here everything is working out.  David Peterson is as forgettable as his name but that just means you don't realize what a solid pitcher he's been for two of the last three seasons. Griffin Canning seems happy to be out of Anaheim. Clay Holems IS working as a starter, if only a 5 inning one it is a very effective 5 innings. Kodai Senga is pitching a bit over his head and Tylor Megill is having his best year every continuing the improvement from 2024. It doesn't seem like a lights out rotation but it was one that if everything worked out it could be 5 2/3 types and like I said everything is working out.

Same with the relief core where Edwin Diaz is the weak link.  Everyone brought in and everyone kept is hitting all their targets and then some.  It's one of THOSE starts. 

It'll be a good test for the Nats. Is the Nats relief pitching bad enough that it can't hold the Mets back from late season rallies?  Are the Nats bats good enough that they can score runs against a hot rotation? Weakness vs weakness, strength vs strength, we get an idea of how weak and how strong these things are this weekend.

Things just keep getting worse

 No, no. Just kidding. Maybe for the Orioles. 

Since we're on a lucky/unlucky kick let's see which Nats are due to see things turn around... in any direction. 

HIGH BABIP - (BA should get lower) 

No surprise that Keibert in on here though he's not super crazy high. It should also not surprise you to see Nathaniel Lowe here as well.  A career .260s hitter hitting .290 to start is likely getting some bounces. But what should surprise, shock, and dismay you that Paul DeJong is among the lucky ones. Yikes! Nice knowing you Paul! 

LOW BABIP (BA should get higher) 

The oft-mentioned Dylan Crews and the below expectations Luis Garcia both should see a rise in BA. Josh Bell may be cooked but he's not THIS cooked. 

HIGH HR/FB RATE (should see fewer homers) 

James Wood might be the best HR hitter in baseball by far. But if he's not, expect a few fewer over the fence.

LOW HR/FB RATE

Luis Garcia should get something over the fence soon. 

PITCHING BABIP/LOB/HR/FB

 Mitchell Parker is basically rolling straight 7s, lucky in all aspects. Jake Irvin is also getting fewer hits and letting in fewer runs than you'd expect. The highlights of the pen, Finnegan and what we've seen of Henry should be letting in more runs, though in neither case does this mean the guy should be bad.

PITCHING BABIP/LOB/HR/FB

As you can imagine Sims and Poche are getting unlucky and when you combine that with bad pitching you see horrendous results. Brad Lord and Jose Ferrer are more in line for having improvements that actually should make them usable.  Can you believe Gore could have a bit more luck? His BABIP suggests so and his other numbers are very regular. 

Expect Garcia to get right soon. Expect Paul DeJong to be gone. The starting pitching should get a bit worse and the bullpen should see some competing improvements and scale backs. However replacing Sims and Poche would likely improve it for no cost but Rizzo's pride.   Where they stand now in general (74/75 win team) seems very much what they are.

Mitchell Parker - ace?

 No. 

For all the talk yesterday in the comments about "Crews should be doing better by his fancy stats" (true!) Parker is the opposite. A .191 BABIP? 85% LOB? 2.8% HR/FB rate? 

These are all stats that sort of measure luck. There's skill involved to be sure, and we'll get to it but these also are pulling out luck.  Last year the lowest BABIP was .220, .250 being very low.  The highest LOB% was 83.6%, 79% being very high.  The lowest HR/FB rate was 6.3%, 9.0% being very low. That gives you an idea where things normally sit.  He's clearly abnormal and without a compelling reason to say "he's awesome now!" you say it's luck. But luck is magnified early in the season. Is he just normal and it's the vagaries of a handful of starts? Nah ah.  

BABIP - 5th luckiest

LOB% - 14th luckiest

HR/FB Rate -  5th luckiest

He's lucky among the lucky. His xFIP is 4.60. 

 He does induce soft contact and does not get many barrels. Guys don't square up on him well. But that doesn't account for all of this, or even most of it, and with all his walks (so many!) and so few strike-outs (so few!) this can't possibly continue.  

But as I often say early in the year though - he doesn't have to give this back.  He doesn't have to have a 7.00 ERA over the next 4 games to even it out.  Return to form means pitching like he's earned (mid 4.00s ERA) not cosmic balance. He's still a perfectly decent arm in the rotation, especially for this team. 

In other news Crews hit a homer bc that's what happens when I say bad things about a guy.  Ruiz keeps hitting. Wood keeps hitting for power. Good good. And they beat the Os and that makes me and you happy! 

Monday Quickie - Disappointment Vibes

The Nats went 4-6 for the road trip against the dregs of the National League. What does that tell us? Well, depends.  If you want to be completely honest - nothing - because no particular 10 game stretch in baseball tells you anything definitive. It's 1/16th of a season.  6%.  It's not telling and why we often use Memorial Day - or about 1/3rd of the way into the season as an actual "ok what is this team really like" point. 

BUT

It is long enough to get ideas. Ideas that you stick in your mind to see if the season continues to validate them and a 4-6 road stretch against the dregs of the NL gives you the idea that the Nats aren't too far ahead of the dregs. That this isn't a .500 team looking to surprise but a 70 win team looking to avoid the cellar in their division. The Nats aren't the worst team in baseball. There's simply no catching the embarrassment that is the White Sox or Rockies. But could they end up the 3rd worst team? Well I'd still put my money there on the A's. But 4th worst? Sure.

The main problem remains the pen with Lucas Sims, with his 15.2 ERA (sorry that's not fair. Only a 9.42 FIP and a 2.6 WHIP!) and Colin Poche (15.88 ERA but yes 5.50 FIP but oh no 3.2 WHIP!) still occupying spots as if trying to prove to the Nats decision makers they weren't wrong making these moves that even nobodies like me could see shouldn't be made.  

Fix that though and there is a lingering question about the offense, which in the last 8 games has scored 4, 3, 3, 1, 0, 12!, 3, and 1 runs. The Nats starters are decent but they aren't made to win games where the Nats score 3 runs. We'll get to it tomorrow but the one thing they should do today is demote Crews. Dylan didn't knock the door down to get his major league shot. He simply performed competently enough in AA to get a look in AAA and performed competently enough there to get a cup of coffee to see if he's ready.  He's obviously not. This isn't an indictment on the Nats development, drafting, or Crews' skill.  Great players don't always catch on right away and good players often don't. There's no reason to believe he can't be productive in the majors, even this year. But he isn't that right now and they need to let him get his head on straight. This year is CLEARLY not about 2025 so don't force it.

Shinny to the IL

 Just since we were talking about him yesterday

  https://x.com/MarkZuckerman/status/1912876174654439920

What they needed

They needed a win. Obviously so, as I noted yesterday they were quickly sliding into "uh... what are we doing here guys" territory against some bad competition and if they don't want to BE the bad competition they needed to show something. 

They needed a good Jake Irvin performance. It has been a middling start to 2025 for Jake, who's main role is probably "be good enough to go 6+ innings so the bullpen can get some rest".  He hasn't been and it's mattered especially lacking a 5th starter (Brad Lord ain't it) and Trevor Williams scuffling a bit. The Nats rotation wasn't deep to start the year, now it needs everyone to do what they can do. Yesterday Irvin did just that. In control, lots of ground balls, some swing and miss stuff. Yeah the Pirates stink but as we've said many times - you gotta do it against the bad teams. 

They needed the bullpen not to blow it. They didn't. Jose Ferrer, probably the most "we're going to use this guy in the future" arm and Kyle Finnegan held down the 8th and 9th with one extra base-runner.  Exactly the break and performance the pen needed. 

So the Nats are now reset.  They are rolling out their best results pitcher so far in Mitchell Parker (though really that's more sequencing luck.  Still he has been good, just not under 2.00 ERA good) against Bailey Falter who is just a guy and a guy in 2025 off to a bad start. Win again, get a streak going and momentum to roll the next bad team. 

 

Speaking of no 5th starter - how's it looking in the high minors early on that front?  In AAA Shinnosuke has had a couple of good starts sandwiched around a terrible one.  It was the same team looking at him from 5 days earlier, for whatever you want to make of that. Andry Lara, an actual prospect (22+), has a similar early profile without the "re-seen" and with much fewer innings pitched. Given his tight leash I don't expect him up in 2025 and possibly could end up back in AA a league he handled but didn't dominate last year. That wouldn't be a knock against him though, just a statement of where he is in his development. He's good enough to want to take care of. Minor League Rule V pick-up Hyun-il Choi has been mediocre and oddly pitched just 2 innings last game, but I don't see any injury notes. Chase Solesky, a guy grabbed for org depth, seems to have a AA limit and is not doing well.  That leaves Andrew Alvarez, a 2021 Nats draftee and running a similar skillset as recent Nats call-ups. Re: Can't strike anyone out but doesn't get hit or give up homers.  A bit more wild than others but he might be first up.   The short of it though is - nothing really here. 

How about AA? Any older guys and/or guys doing real well? Jarlin Susana is the guy here with a couple of impressive starts.  He wasn't in AA last year though so the idea of jumping straight to the majors is a stretch given he threw 100 IP last year and that's his most ever. Maybe if he was dominating but he's a step or two from that. Really good, what you want to see as a prospect, but if you were hoping for help tomorrow, not there. 

I'd expect Lord to get another couple shots as they let the AAA guys get a couple more starts in themselves to really get a feel for how these guys are doing.  If it were today Alvarez would get the call but you have to believe they want to call Shinnosuke up and with only one bad start out of three, a couple more ok ones is probably all it takes to get him back in the show. 

Ok well you can lose to Skenes

This game isn't "have to have". Nothing in April will ever be that. But if the Nats want to come out of this road trip feeling good it's hard to imagine it without this win. Losing that they have to go 4-1 in the last five to salvage it. Certainly possible but when you start a road trip 1-4 and sit at 6-11 overall, 4-1 looks a little unlikely in general.

 Worse is just how bad the bullpen looks top to bottom. I understand the variability issue - you can make a good faith effort to build a pen and fail but this didn't feel like a good faith effort.  Especially when you are like "this guy isn't good. We aren't going to spend money on him... oh he's much cheaper. Well then it's ok he's not good" seemed like the way the Finnegan return went. It also doesn't bode well that Finnegan the only guy they were like "no we really are ok without you" is the current best arm (only good arm?) in the pen.  And we've talked about how Poche and Sims were kind of bad bets that showed poorly and yet here they are doing bad... 

sigh. 

Ok. Everyday in baseball is a new day. Get the win.

Monday Quickie - On boring target

Yeah to go 5-5 and tell us nothing they probably had to go 1-2 versus the best team in the bunch and it looks like that might be the Marlins. 

Friday looked to be a mirror-image of what we've seen. The Nats were held down for the start of the game before exploding late on the Marlins bullpen, while the Nats pen held it's own.  Hell, Lucas Sims got the win (maybe his last in the majors!). Saturday the Nats worked a lead off of the still returning to form Sandy Alcantara but in a disturbing development Trevor Williams couldn't hold on to it. While the Nats don't need Williams to be an ace, they do need Williams him to not be bad and he was bad. Given he started blah this isn't a particularly good sign.  But we'll worry about that in four days. Sunday was the more typical game but also featured the starter disappointing. Gore looked more like his 2024 self than 2025, which is perfectly ok and certainly should beat the Marlins but Jorge Lopez and Lucas Sims put the game well out of reach.

Ruiz keeps hitting. and Wood looked good, even when he didn't get a hit like Sunday he still walked three times and stole a base. 

Abrams got hurt and is out.  That means Rosario and DeJong at the same time and many Amed Rosario keeps up his decent start and DeJong has a little power run but more likely they anchor the bottom of the lineup in the "drag to the bottom of the sea" way. 

Ok on to the Pirates and no worse than a 2-2 split. 

In other news

Let's get a lay of the land in the majors after 2 weeks

NL East  - No one has pulled away as both the Mets and Phillies have been carried a bit by their pitching. The Phillies adding a bit of luck. The Marlins are a minor surprise but don't look to be too different from the Nats overall. The Braves are the true surprise with a horrendous start but have been .500 after that and are better than their record. They should catch the Marlins and Nats in the Spring but what does that gap do for catching the good teams?

NL Central - The Cubs have been legit good and threaten to run away and hide with the division given the Brewers are banging the wall both at the plate and on the mound, the Reds are a .500 team at best (great pitching bad hitting) and the Cardinals... well you can squint and see that they could be good but they have to prove it. The Pirates sadly remain the Pirates with no ownership support

NL West -  A stacked division where the Dodgers injuries might finally catch up with them.  Giants and Padres look like they have great staffs. The Diamondbacks are raking.  None of the top four teams are bad at anything.  In contrast the Rockies might be the worst team in baseball this year and in this division than might mean 50 wins. 

AL East - The Yankees bashed their way to fast start but have come down to Earth and it looks like a division full of 85 win teams. The Rays pitching might be enough to surprise in this situation. 

AL Central - The Tigers also got off the a fast start and look allright and in this division of misfits that's probably good enough.  The Guardians should hang around but mainly beacuse the Twins and Royals aren't very good.  Why is the White Sox pitching decent? Should be some good RP trade targets later in the year! 

AL West - The A's are terrible. the rest of the division shakes out to be 75 win teams but someone's got to end up on top and once again the Astros look like the one most likely to do it, sorry. If you want to bet on someone else, bet on the Rangers.  They can't hit this bad forever and Langford looks like Wood looks like.

The dregs (not the Nats!… maybe)

 The nats are in a stretch against the traditionally worst teams in the NL. 10 games vs the Marlins, Pirates and Rockies.  This will really set the tone for the start of the season. 8-2? Let’s go team that’s clearly better than the worst!  2-8?  Big uh-ohs. 

Now of course they are away and will go 5-5 and we’ll learn nothing but I’m pretty interested any way.  Especially in the Marlins series. The Pirates and Rockies are legit bad. The Marlins are not, or still least haven’t started so.  This could determine what sort of fight these teams are in for in the NL East.  Third? Last?  

Bullpen still stinks

The Nats in the off-season didn't do what we wanted them to. Still, after realizing they weren't going to make that big move, we assumed they'd help out a bullpen that looked pretty thin. It was an easy move to secure some improvement (or at least assure as best you can no movement backwards) for a group that was passable last year.  They did not. 

In 2024 the brought in Derek Law who had an better than expected 2023 and looked usable based on the past few years. They brought in Dylan Floro who had a WORSE than expected 2023 but fancy stats were good and historically he had been very solid. This also sort of describes Matt Barnes. And they brought in Jacob Barnes, recent historically bad and not good in 2023 but with fancy stats that suggested maybe something was there. You aren't going to hit on all! (Or maybe just avoid Barneses)

This year Jorge Lopez is sort of a cross between the Barnes. History is pretty hard to read but there are good things and last year was good. Lucas Sims is historically usable but looked worse last year. Colin Poche had some good years but the fancy stats see him more of a last guy int he pen.  

So there isn't a guy with the history of Floro. Poche is a worse bet Law. Lopez is a basically the bet you made on your two other guys in one pitcher.  Fewer guys. Worse bets. The fact you are sitting with a worse outcome isn't a surprise

This all would be acceptable if there were a stud set of arms they wanted to lead the way. There isn't. Last year they hoped Finnegan, Rainey and Harvey would be that. They dropped the nothing special Kyle Finnegan only to pick him back up on the cheap when no one else wanted him. Rainey never became anything and he's gone. Harvey had promise so they traded him and he's had a fast start in KC.  Guys they kept mostly aren't anything. Eduardo Salazar is just an arm.  Jackson Rutledge is a complete unknown with a total of 6 games in relief to go on. Jose Ferrer is he's young and lefty but more likely to be more like Salazar. 

If it wasn't for the emergence of Brad Lord there would be no bright spots to one of the worst pens in baseball and with Davey the type to lean on what works you start to worry about that, if he's even going to stay in the pen as long relief and not be worked into the rotation with Soroka down. 

 It's a fun week after a not so fun one. Abrams and Wood have had fast starts. Keibert as well. Gore looks good and the fancy stats aren't worried about Williams or Parker.  There are things to be excited about if you believe the ownership will finally buy in next year. But the excitement that could be happening this year probably won't and the lack of pen help will likely be a big reason. 

MacKenzie Gore steps up?

 MacKenzie Gore was always supposed to be a star but pitching prospects are extremely fickle. Factor in injuries and his development hasn't gone exactly as planned. Not that he hasn't been useful but if you said before 2020 that going into 2025 Gore's career stats would read 21-26 with a 4.20 ERA, 4.14 FIP and 1.422 WHIP you'd be disappointed.  Those are the numbers of a #3 type starter, not an ace. 

 At the major league level, and really at all levels since 2020, his problem has been two-fold. Too hittable and too many walks.  So while his homer rate has generally been ok and his strikeout rate generally good, guys would get on and guys would get around. His innings would be long and he just couldn't last long into games. He was just another pitcher. 

This year so far we've seen a different Gore.  His control is much better. He's getting ahead of batters (first pitch strike percentage is way up, getting more called strikes, and throwing in the zone more. This is giving him control of the at bats and keeping his walks down but strikeouts high. He appears to be leaning more into his curve ball, arguably his best pitch taking a bit off his fastball and a lot off his slider to make it match his change up more in speed. This is something he did in 2023 but got away from in 2024.  The difference from 2023 though is he was a fastball pitcher who used a slider and curve to mix things up. Last year he really bumped up the change and now he's a four pitch pitcher, where the slider and change hit about the same speed keeping hitters more off-balance. 

Pitching can be about learning what works and doesn't. And what works in the minors isn't necessarily what works in the majors. He could throw that speedball by them and then use a hammer curve and later the solid slider to finish hitters off in high school and low minors. But major league hitters weren't as easily beat. His fastball doesn't quite pop enough to rely on it to beat a hitter (see Ohtani last night) and his slider could be flat at times (see Ohtani last night). Since the curve could be fairly easily identified hitters could lay off that and handle Gore even with in general pretty good stuff. Locate the fastball though, lean more into a hard to hit curveball, make the slider able to be confused with a tumbling change-up, well you start to see what happens. 

I'm not sure this is something that will last. It hasn't been perfect as his start in Toronto was full of hits. And we've seen pitchers run through a couple good starts.  Hell, we've seen them run through a couple good months. But if you could spell out what you wanted to see from Gore early this is it. Honestly looking forward now to his next start to see if we can get more confirmation that he'pitching different and that it makes a difference.

Monday Quickie - vacation again?

 Look I don't set the school schedule. 

The Nats avoided the sweep and as they get ready to take on Toronto here are the takeaways

- the rotation looked good continuing the trend of last year

- The bullpen looked bad 

- the kids weren't alright at the plate

- but the pickups were doing ok 

 

Don't get too excited or sad. It's time to keep watching and see how things go 

It was the best of Opening Days... you know the rest

 If you were hoping Gore would take a step forward, yesterday's game was a dream come true. With all the caveats (First real game for everyone, only one game, afternoon game where it's notoriously harder to hit) Gore looked amazing.  He was completely in control letting only one Phillie reach the basepaths and striking out 13 in only 6 innings. A masterful performance.

Also if you understand the importance of Keibert Ruiz being good (giving he's sort of set to be the starting C for at least a couple more years) seeing him get around on a pitch and drive it over fence - along with having another hit made you smile, too.  Ruiz doesn't have to be good in any certain way.  Low average power hitter instead of high-average line-driver? That's fine. He just has to be above average. Good start. 

The Nats also didn't give up.  Down late they mounted a comeback to send the game to extras.

 Of course the Nats didn't win the game there and there were a couple of "well as long as this isn't that bad" and "no way this could be as bad as last year" that were the reason why prompting deserved worry just one game in.

Gore probably had another inning in him but at 93 pitches on Opening Day, these days most managers would opt to go to the pen. For all of this teams "old school" stylings this team doesn't stray from the script here. The pen was brought in and it looked TERRIBLE. Both Poche and Sims, guys that weren't good and where you looked at Spring and said "oh well they are going to be cut" made the team and immediately performed poorly, blowing the game in the 7th and the 10th respectively.  This is a big worry for a team who's pitching staff is most likely going to be 4ish guys keeping the game respectable for 6 innings. They need the last 3 innings to also be respectable. 

 Also although not directly responsible for the loss, Paul DeJong looked every bit the guy that would be let go by the White Sox because he's not good anymore.  Paul has always been a pretty high strikeout guy and when he gets past that point where he can connect with enough pitches hard to matter he's going to be unplayable. Yesterday suggested he might be there. Third base was a huge hole for the Nats last year, if it's a huge hole again well then there goes some of the expected gains at the plate. 

Which Nats do you want to focus on - the promise or the horror? Opening Day gave you both.

What's your win guess?

It's pretty safe to say the Nats won't make the playoffs. The Nats are clearly the 4th best team in their own tough division leaving one WC spot for them to contest. To do that they'd likely have to get something in the neighborhood of 16 games better, a huge jump when you're not starting at 50 wins. Even when you make a concerted effort to improve by leaps and bounds that's too big an ask and the Nats didn't make a concerted effort to improve that much.

 But the Nats are better, or at least should be slightly.  Offensively for sure. First base, with the addition of Nathaniel Lowe, likely becomes very solid. Paul DeJong a 3B isn't going to wow anyone anymore but could hardly be worse than the Lipscomb/Senzel/Vargas/Tena manning. There are real possibilities of breakouts from Wood and/or Crews and Abrams and Garcia both can also improve. Only Bell replacing the 2/3rds a year of Winker stands to be worse. 

Starting pitching is a bit of a mystery with a lot hinging on the development of Gore and the reliability of Williams (both health and results). The other guys are here to be average. There's a lot of ways this can swing as there doesn't seem to be anything reliable here outside of Gore should not be bad. But letting it all even out and land on an average, if unexciting, rotation seems the simplest answer. 

Relief pitching probably does take a step back. Neither Poche or the likely roster maker Sims match up to Law and Floro in expectations (and that's not a high bar) and the loss of Harvey also hurts. But unless the pen totally implodes that's unlikely to matter more than the improvement at the plate. 

On the basepaths the Nats were very aggressive and that really helped support the team's offense. The team is still young and none of the losses and additions suggest a change in approach so we'll assume the same stategy and results. 

 

Fancy stats wise the Nats were basically the team they showed as, 71-91.  If they are slightly better I can see them getting to 74-75 wins.  If that isn't because of a fast start that means not only do the Nats not make the playoffs, but they aren't ever really in the picture.  That's what most of the pundits are thinking. I would say that's fair. 

This is a team that could have been built to be over .500 and have a shot to get into the playoffs if things broke their way. It wasn't. The Nats continued their slow improvement looking toward the kids for any real push forward. With a handful of top prospects that could happen, but I'm going with the safe bet and just expect a few games better in 2025 and the set-up for a make or break off-season between the ownership and the fans. 

 74-88 

DJ Hurtz

 DJ Herz is going on the IL.  His ligament is sprained and that's not good news from probably the most interesting young starting pitcher. It's also a stark reminder that while Trevor Williams only gave the Nats 1/3 of a season and Josiah Gray got hurt in the early part of April, they virtually escaped injury once they were rolling. Decent pitching that comes out every day can do a lot for a team. Hell it almost carried the 2005 team to the playoffs!

 Pretty disappointing for a number of reasons but we have to move on with what we have

 And what we have with the rotation is now set for sure with Shinny gettng the expected send down. 

 Gore - Williams - Soroka - Irvin - Parker. 

 A lot rides on if Gore will EVER make the next step and if Williams' success is some sort of fever dream. Yes and No, it could be an interesting, if ultimately futile season. No and Yes and hey Miami, mind if we join you? 

The rotation is the only thing set.  The bullpen is still fighting over the last spots. Poche made it (as far as I can tell solely to be another lefty) and Law looks pretty certain to be out on the IL. Lord, Ribalta, Rutledge, Salazar and Sims are not locked in.  All I've heard is that Sims is in, in the "let the veteran arm do his thing" which then means the Nats will have two guys, in Poche and him, that aren't that good and showed badly in the pre-season. Sigh.  Ok look I like Salazar. I hope he makes it.

For some reason Riley Adams is still fighting with Andrew Knizer for the bench catcher and Adams would have to clear waivers.  They got rid of Nunez and with Chappy hurt that leaves Tena and Yepez if Rosario is hurt. 

Anyway - we'll find out just before game time Thursday for some clown show reason. 

Eh let's get 2025 over with.

More like No-gas-awara

There are more obvious plays off his first name but you come here for creativity. 

The Nats signed Shinnosuke Ogasawara for a 2 year 3.5 million dollar contract. The deal remains a low ball try something deal so if it doesn't work out it's not a big thing. But man, it doesn't seem to be working out.  The guy had a problem missing bats in the Japanese league, relying on strike zone control and the Japanese Leagues overall low homer rate to get decent results. In Spring though it looks like he can't miss enough bats. They are getting hits and homers off of him at a high enough rate to force him to try to do things to miss those bats, leading to more walks which negates his one strength. 

I don't know what you do about this because that was always a possibility.  Essentially he's a AA/AAA pitcher with decent results but not much of a prospect called up to see what he can do. We've seen a ton of those and they usually fail, for a lot less than 3.5 million too. 

If you want to look to him as a reliever then you might focus on a 2022 that featured a higher than average K-rate as evidence he can step it up. Of course that's basically the only season he's done that in his 20s but it was recent, I guess. 

Whatever you think I can't see him starting in the majors. It's AAA for Shinnosuke.