Update : Fire Davey Quicker

And Fire Rizzo. 

And Sell the Team  

 

Look I've been an advocate for Rizzo, who can deal with the best of them, and is perfectly acceptable at IDing long range contract targets (some bomb, some work out - that's just how it goes). But sticking by Davey here isn't about results or Davey's proven track record with kids (which doesn't exist), it's about keeping a guy who doesn't complain about the roster at all and works quietly with whatever he's given.  Rizzo bombed in his FA acquisitions this off-season but Davey won't complain. Nor will he eat the blame. That's the trade off. 

As for the Lerners. I think Ted wanted to win, and fought through his more.. penurious tendencies (remember the "wait you want to Fed Ex this stuff?") to pay for an expensive team.  I think Mark wants to win but Mark isn't solo in charge. It's Mark and siblings who are more inclined to sell than win. Without the backing of an owner who will spend you are completely at the whim of timing on getting a window open for a brief period of time (see Pirates, Pittsburgh).  That's no way for a team to be run, hitting 3 year windows every generation. 

 

This offseason will either cement these feelings or prove them wrong, but they aren't things I've said before and I don't mean them lightly. Fix what's broken or stop being in charge.  

Monday Quickie - Fire Davey

Fire Davey.  

The man can't help but blame the players and I don't want that type of guy leading this team.  Maybe a veteran team can ignore him or maybe he wouldn't dare anger those guys, but this isn't a veteran team. It's a team of kids and they need someone to support and shield them.  

There are numerous reasons to fire the guy. His behavior this weekend pushes that all aside to get to number 1. Even if you landed on "well he won the series and changing the manager doesn't really matter" I don't see how you can still want to keep the guy. 

Slow fade

 Are we talking about this blog or the Nats? Hey yo! 

After the nice run that ended with a sweep of Arizona the Nats have played, as we've gone over before, like you'd expect a 75 win team to play.  Competitive enough that you would be surprised at them being swept in two straight series. Not good enough that you'd really expect them to win two straight series against better teams. 

And there are a fair number of better teams.  The dregs of the NL remain the dregs, the Rockies, Marlins, and Pirates playing their own game on how to not even try. The Nats are clearly better than that but only Atlanta stands below them and that's because the Braves are on one of the craziest runs of bad luck you'll ever see*. The Nats are not bad, but they are at least a half-step behind 3/4 of the rest of the National League, honestly a half-step behind 75% of baseball after you throw the not trying White Sox, Athletics, and new to the group Orioles, in there. 

Outside of Alex Call no one is hot right now and when Wood is putting up a .095 / .174 / .095 line in the past couple weeks you know the offense is grinding to a halt.  

I'll say I see 3 interesting things going on though

1) Gore is solidifying into that ace. We've brought it up occasionally but watching him last night the guy is in a zone and when he's there he's unhittable and that my friend, is an ace.  For Nats fans that means a real fun 6 innings of baseball watching every 5 games. It also means OH MY GOD THEY NEED TO SIGN HIM LONG TERM.  These type of guys don't come around often. You need these types. You can replace a bat somewhat but an arm? You have to gamble on them when you have the opportunity. I don't see a winning Nats team in 3 years without this guy

 2) The bullpen, free of the terrible signings and decisions to open the year, is getting better. Yes, that's funny to after another bullpen loss but Ferrer gave up hits to Soto and Alonso - two of the better hitters in the game. It happens. Henry got beat in extras but the game is designed now for a run to score. In the past two weeks these guys have pitched much better and actually haven't been the main reason the Nats have lost anymore

 3) Soroka threw a really good game. 7 Ks, 2 hits, no homers.  The guy is here to be traded. If he can come around SP is such in need he will fetch something mildly interesting. 

Sadly with the recent slide we're back to making our own stories from the team.  There is one last chance for that to change though. 7 games against MIA and COL at home coming up.  Say split the next two vs the Mets and go 6-1 in those 7 and end up 36-38 into the West Coast swing?  One last run at trying to be interesting? Do you have it in you boys? 

 

*they recently lost 5 1-run games in a row and have lost their last 12 1 or 2 run games.  

These kids aren't alright

This doesn't have anything to do with the Cubs series. 1 of 3 from the Cubs is what should be expected and seeing Gore look like an ace again is great. However, we are in the "stats are real now" part of the season and last time we looked at the kids whose stats said real good things about them. CJ Abrams continues to be cool but I noted his propensity for extended cold streaks was keeping him from being special. That's not the point, he's still overall good. The only one with a real issue out of that group was Jackson Rutledge. I mentioned he could fall back and he really has. Still he's not young but he IS new to relief pitching.  He's still learning. We'll see. 

So while there are kids who look good this year there are others who do not. 

 

Keibert Ruiz has been in free fall since a hot start. While there was hope from some on here than his general lack of hitting was due to previous injury and now that he's healthy he would go back to being decent that hasn't been the case.  He remains extremely good at squaring up and meeting pitches. This lets him maintain one of the lowest strikeout rates in the game.  Unfortunately he's bad at picking which pitches to try to hit (Chase rate is high), he's bad at generating any sort of power (exit velocity, etc. is very low), he doesn't get the ball up enough (launch angle too low), and he's super slow so he's not going to leg anything out. He also doesn't identify pitches well (as noted by that chase rate) so his walk rate is very low.  You can sort of take a bad hitting catcher if they can field but Ruiz is generally considered a poor defensive catcher (though one with an ok arm).  We're getting very close to having to accept that despite the contract Ruiz is neither the catcher of the future or the catcher of now. 

 

Fleet of foot Jacob Young make Keibert look like James Wood when it comes to power. One of the weakest bats in baseball who gets nothing up in the air, I'm sure this combination worked for him all through his career so far. He could leg out enough hits and play stellar defense. But the margins on that working get slimmer and slimmer and the body gets slower and slower and Jacob is rapidly approaching a point where he has to do something better to stick around.  It could be that he walks a bit better. Never really his strong suit but he is a little better this year and he doesn't chase. Maybe if he does that he can set himself up as a 5th OF. That would be a disappointment given the Nats hopes when he rose up the minors at a decent clip but honestly it would be a win given his draft position. He was never a prospect. 

 

Speaking of OFs despite the assurances of the rabble in the comments (rabble I said!) Dylan Crews's too early actual stats meant more than his too early fancy stats, and he's seen his performance level out while his fancy stats drop to meet what he is doing. He strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough in general and his fielding, which was supposed to be stellar, has simply been adequate so far. I don't come here to bury Crewsar though. He immediately improved his walk rate after a dreadful start and before his injury was beginning to generate more power. The fancy stats, now like all stats more real with a third of a season down, suggest unlike Ruiz and Young, the guy can swing a bat. He doesn't chase and he can really nail it when he gets it right. He just doesn't do it often enough yet. It does seem like it's a matter of time before he's a productive major leaguer. From there we can discuss what that means, but we gotta get there first and to do that he's gotta get back from injury. Why is he in the "aren't alright" section? He's alright to me! Well because this isn't what anyone was hoping for the guy when drafted. You wanted an impact star ASAP and he's simply not that. Reset expectations from 10 to 8 and see where he goes and we'll all be fine* 

 

This isn't bad for a split of what kids are working and what aren't, especially when you consider only Ruiz is really crashing out. Young is merely not overperforming like hoped, and Crews is just not an immediate ROY candidate. Both of these guys can still be valuable, even very valuable in Crews' case, hitting below the high targets that had been set. 

There is a base, we all can see it. It could be an actual foundation with guys like Garcia and Ferrer being ok and more kids on the way. But what the FAs are doing is killing the team and they are going to need some good FA signings to put this team over the top.  

*You're going to yell at me again, aren't you?  

 

Monday Quickie : Hey hey!

 I'm thankful for a lot but I'm very thankful today that the Nats team is winning in strong fashion and not sneaking out close wins because if there's one thing that I hate (and as you can probably tell there are many) it's the trite re-use of the "Cardiac" nickname for any team of young players (Cardiac Kids!) or whose name slightly allows it because of a similar sound (CardiAc NAts!). That isn't happening here. I can breathe. 

 I'm also thankful for a great weekend of Nats baseball to liven up the season that had a chance to go very moribund. It actually pushed them to a nice little 10-3 run and relevance? Not quite. But another one of those from relevance! 

The recent push has been helped along not by James Wood being a stud (look the guy is a star at the plate and it's time we just start talking like he is as opposed to some young player than might be something). Josh Bell and Luis Garcia starting to hit again... and enough timely hitting to score the runs needed to back up the pitching. 

Gore had a couple of ace like performances and the pen 2.0. Brad Lord, Cole Henry, Jose Ferrer until his arm breaks are doing very well.  

When can you get "excited"? Let's set our sights on June 13th.  The Nats will be past the tough stretch and looking at 7 games against the Marlins and Rockies. I know the Nats have been kind of up against the good, down against the bad, but the Rockies are so bad that supercedes that. Just look at the last 3 game set. The Nats were the closest the Rockies came to winning a series, winning one and losing two 1-run games but they still didn't do it.

We talked about not getting too low before, nor should you get too high.  I still think this is a 75 win team. But seasons where you can pretend it's more, where you flirt with being meaningful before a late fall, are more fun that seasons when you can't. Nats are almost there. It's almost fun, you know in a "not the usual fun of just watching baseball fun" A couple more good weeks would do it. 

These kids are allright

It's Review the Team Memorial Day Week (tm)(r) (c) and after 53 games (1 game under 1/3 of the season) there are bright spots in the Nats "Still rebuilding?" season. 

James Wood has got to be first and foremost.  We won't reiterate every point we've made so far this year about the budding superstar but he's gotten a tiny bit less selective in order to smash the ball more and that has worked out well. Not that he was ever too selective. He grips and rips. But he also has a good sense of the strike zone so he grips and rips at pitches he can usually hit. If pitchers beat him, good for them, but they are going to have to do just that. 

He still could get better. I don't think it has to do with plate approach. This is working for him. However if he could hit a few fewer ground balls (52.8%) we're talking more screeching line drives and balls over the fence.  The BA might drop a little, or honestly it might not, but if it does the trade off in extra XBHs would likely be worth it. 

He still needs to field better or the Nats need to look at him as a DH. Let's not make the Soto mistake again trying to convince ourselves someone bad is ok out there because they are young. Yes, Wood is more athletic, truly fast, but he's not a good fielder. Being strong doesn't make you a good hitter. Its skills and he doesn't have it at this level. I mean keep him out there if he wants to be. The hits matter more. But if he's agreeable to it, it's probably the right idea. 

We recently talked about CJ Abrams but he's improved every year he's been in the majors across two teams and he's hitting his stride now with a stretch to start the year as good as any that he has put up. He has cooled down in the past week so he didn't get to "best stretch ever" but if this isn't the introduction to a cold stretch he's going to end up with his best season ever. Like Wood he's swinging harder and it's paying off, though unlike Wood he's not every selective and that probably will keep him a step behind Wood as maybe a star but not a superstar. I suppose he could learn that once he sustains strong hitting without going into long droughts. 

Fielding wise Abrams is like Wood in that he stinks and probably shouldn't be playing his position. Unlike Wood though DH doesn't feel right for him. His arm is fine for 3B but his reaction time is slow.  If it wasn't his speed would be making him have elite range instead of terrible range. This has been very consistent over his career. You have to keep his bat and legs in the line-up so... second base in his future?  

 

It's early in both the transition and season to judge a relief pitcher but Cole Henry seems to have taken to the role like a fish to water. If not for one horrendous outing against the Mets he'd be sporting a 0.00 ERA. He's not the traditional reliever though blowing guys away or getting them to jam the ball into the ground. No, he's a flyball guy but guys at the plate don't read his stuff well and can't hit him hard. It's not necessarily the standard recipe for success so the fancy stats don't love him but until he stops inducing that type of contact you kind of gotta assume he can keep it up. Given he's not stressing his arm trying to throw 100MPH screwballs if he simply keeps up what he's doing it seems like he could have a long successful career in the pen. 

In a similar but lesser vein Jackson Rutledge has done well converting to the pen as well. He's more in line with the throwing smoke get grounders reliever types though not quite fast enough while still being prone to fits of wildness. There's room for improvement but he's under 20 games into his relief career on any level. Chances are he can improve a bit and he's already sitting at a level that would be a good pen piece. The fancy stats don't love him and given his limited time here he's probably more likely for a fallback but why not be optimistic? Like I said he can get better.

 

Mackenzie Gore should be great. He really should be. He's leading the league in K/9 right now, and has perfectly reasonable number for hits, homers, and walks. Everything is showing a marked improvement from last year.  And yes he is better but he should still be even better than what he's showing and should be showing even more improvement.  What's up? It seems like batters don't usually hit Gore but when they do they REALLY do. Mostly they can't hit his pitches but when they can they can easily squared up. That seems to suggest his mistakes are big ones. The bad curves don't miss they hang. The bad fastballs aren't off the plate they are meatballs. If he can fix that and he's an ace. But all this complaining is about a guy who's a 1/2 right now and that's good! 

Jake Irvin is fine.  I know we want more and the ERA sort of suggests more but he's a 4.25-4.50 ERA pitcher and you know what? That's ok.  He has good control of the strike zone, and controls the running game so the hits and homers he will give up, and he will, aren't game losing. Sit at the back of the rotation for the next 2-3 years and let the Nats not worry about one spot. Who can complain about that? 

Mitchell Parker is basically Jake Irvin, with a couple big exceptions.  First he seems to have a skill in keeping the ball in the park. I can hazard to guess it's mostly because he's left-handed. All the things that make Irvin ok - a couple pitches that look the same and a great extension giving the batter a few micro-seconds fewer to react - Parker has something similar but you see a lot fewer LHP. Given that, the batters have a slightly more difficult time reading Parker, swing at more pitches out of the zone and hit more balls to the opposite field. This doesn't really limit hits but homers are about hitting the right pitch perfectly and it just seems harder to do that against Mitchell.  The other thing would be he's 2 1/2 years younger and while Jake is Jake, Mitchell could get better. I'm not sold that he will but he could. If he doesn't, he should join Jake in the back of the rotation for several years and maybe you don't need two of those types in theory but in practice the more rotation worthy pitchers you have the better. 

Monday Quickie

 After a sweep (two games but still counts!) of Atlanta the Nats hosted SF and lost 2 of 3 with a fairly anemic offensive output. Now they face a fairly daunting stretch, traveling cross-country to take on AL West leading Seattle and the NL Wild Card hopeful Arizona Diamondbacks, then back home for a series against the Cubs.  It's Memorial Day week so things are now "real" and getting 4 wins here would be great for a team hoping to scrape .500. A 1-2 win blow-out would basically make it a claw-back summer.  (so as usual expect the 3 wins) 

Tomorrow we'll start going over the 1/3 of the season situation now that guys like Mitchell Parker have returned to Earth and James Wood has not

In the meantime Read Rosenthal's fairly scathing take on the Nats. "Good teams both spend and develop. The Nationals do neither" Ouch!

Rosenthal: Nationals remain among MLB’s bottom feeders despite lengthy rebuild - The Athletic

Darkest before the dawn

 But it's also really dark pretty much an hour after sunset so who really knows.

 The point is : Winning Streak!  

The Nats crushed the Orioles, coming back late on Friday and winning back to back games that were almost over before the 3rd inning began. Last night they continued the hot starts, scoring 4 runs before getting out of the second. This little run has taken them from the "oh uh are they among the worst non Colorado teams in baseball?" back to "this is who we thought they'd be" and a 72 win pace. As we are nearing Memorial Day weekend and the usual "OK NOW let's seriously look at these guys" I think this should be the general consensus on how to look at the season. Ups and downs will happen. It's a 70-75 win team. I'll be genuinely surprised at anything else through the trade deadline (after that rosters and targets can change) 

If you are a Nats fan - basically the last 7 days were what you wanted to see. Abrams and Wood leading the team with great lines across 6 games. Crews knocking a couple out of the park while not striking out at all the last two games. Jacob Young going 3 for 8 in limited time.  Luis Garcia doing ok.  It was a good week for the young core.  Let's hope Crews MRI isn't serious but the kid is young without much injury history so I'm cautiously optimistic there.

We mentioned CJ Abrams a couple posts ago and it's worth going back to him because this guy was meant to be a star, a Top 10 prospect in all of baseball two years in a row. These things are not guaranteed, but when you've managed to corral three of them onto your team at the same time chances of you going 0-3 has gotta be very slim. It could be that Abrams is just having an extended hot streak but it's just as hot as anything he had going last year.  He had a 36 game run of .309 / .401 / .561 centered around June, he's at .313 / .371 / .569.  Another week like this and he'll put that 2024 streak behind him. Abrams did start his career in a worse spot than people thought but every year Abrams has improved. This could be the "put it together" year.  

The Soto trade will work out for the Nats in numbers but then it was always going to do that. Nearly every trade of a vet for kids gives you generally more value.  The pure numbers guys love to talk about that even though really would you want 5 kids giving you 13 WAR over 5 seasons or one guy giving you 10 over 2+?  I hope you understand the latter is more conducive to, you know, winning stuff. 

BUT the Soto trade may actually just work out period. Wood looks to be a star. Right there it's almost a push. Abrams being a star too? Hard to not say it's a win, even if it took a couple years. Gore flirting with being an ace? Ok now it's a clear win. Jarlin Susana given he's just 21, remains a Nats top pitching prospect. He's hanging in in AA which is a perfectly fine place for him to be. And that brings us to the last piece*, Robert Hassell.

With Crews going down the Nats are bringing up Hassell from AAA. Hassell's journey has been kind of a long one.  He was seen as a very strong prospect, dominating A-ball at age 19, but hurt his hand in 2022 and has been trying to play through his return to the game.  2023 was dismal but 2024 showed signs of life and with the space available in AAA Hassell has gotten his chance there.  The results are... mixed. Overall he's hitting ok, but not walking enough and his power is pretty moderate.  His May overall has been very good but that was more a scorching opening week than a sustained performance. It's likely he won't perform in the majors but he's not here to do that. He's here to get a taste. 

The overall point though with these kids coming into form is the Nats have to do something to support this round.  It isn't as strong as the 2011ish time frame where generational picks, kids, and slow starters all lined up perfectly. This is just kids and mostly just bats. Where's their Gio? Where's their Werth? The Nats did set up some pieces for success. This past off-season was the time to strike. This next off-season will be late but better late than never. 

*well technically Luke Voit was that 

Weekend Goals

 Clearly the run to near .500 didn't work out. Instead they went 1-5 vs Cleveland and St. Louis and followed that up with a 1-3 set versus Atlanta. Now they are facing Baltimore - the last bad team they'll play until the middle of June.  

For all the small victories the Nats can have I do think a series win against Baltimore ranks up there.  "We might be bad, but we're not YOU guys" The good news is even a 1-2 series loss puts the teams at even for the season.  So just don't get swept. That isn't too much to ask.

Keep pounding

 Davey inherted a team that went 95 and 97 and in the next three season with mostly the same roster went 82-80!!!!, 93-69, and 26-34!!!!. With an admittedly slightly worse roster went... 65-97!!!! Still with maybe the best hitter in baseball the year after went 55-107!!!!

 

Arguably unestablished somewhat raised in the org Nats with significant playing time that left at 29 or younger :

• Victor Robles, dog house guy for Davey, finally left at 27.  Went to Seattle and hit like a star for half a season. 
• Michael A Taylor flourished under Dusty, immediately back-tracked under Davey, traded away and showed another solid couple years left in him. 
• Joe Ross had the worst two seasons of his career under Davey before a decent one in 2021.  in 2024, his first healthy season after leaving had a better season than ever under Davey'
• Erick Fedde, did come together under Davey... and then lost it again.  Better seasons in 2024 and 2025 than ever under Davey
• Austin Voth started hot under Davey but degraded to the point of almost being out of the game.  A credible starter in Baltimore and reliever in Seattle since.
• Wilmer Difo, WILMER DIFO, decent cup of coffee under Dusty, got worse under Dusty but even more so under Davey to the point he was almost out of baseball. Went to Pittsburgh  PITTSBURGH and had an average year.

On the flip side... you have to stretch and say maybe Andrew Stevenson and Tres Barrera were guys that got a real shot here that didn't do any better elsewhere. Maybe Tanner Rainey though he's only 3 appearances into 2025.  

 You want me to say something nice?  Well if you want to say Soto is Daveys then maybe he is the right manager for an amazing HOF level talent young player. Wood seems to be doing just fine. Gore we can argue about if he's reaching his potential, but is certainly better, so far this year. Maybe him and Mitchell Parker vibe? 

But Abrams, a high quality player has been streaky and already had one beef with the manager. Luis Garcia Jr seems to have a similar hot cold performance matched up with a just cold relationship. Crews, we can at least agree he's struggling, right? I'm not going to get called out as a Crews hater for noting a guy hitting .181 / .239 / .313 a quarter into the season is struggling, am I? 

 

The guy keeps failing. Dusty, original Davey, and even Matt Williams didn't fail like this. Frank Robinson has a better winning percentage with the Nats. Hell Jim Riggleman has a better winning percentage with the Nats. 

Maybe it IS the roster.  Hell I'll agree and say it's gotta mostly be the roster.  I don't think Davey on the Dodgers makes them a .500 team. But what is here that makes you think he needs to stay because this record, this history says he has to go. 

But hey, I'll meet you half-way.  In conceding most managers are generally fine, we can fire Davey but we can hire back Manny Acta for you.

FIX THE PEN

 Or honestly fix Davey. 

From last night's post-game presser Davey trotted out the old very thoroughly debunked idea that you don't use your closer on the road in the 9th in a tie game. The idea is "well what if you need a save later?" which completely ignores the reality that you need to get to the point you need a save. YOU CAN'T SAVE A GAME YOU ALREADY LOST! The math all works out - you want to constantly put your best pitcher out there if you can.  Obviously rest and match-ups all come into consideration but that's the basic truth.  

There are good arguments that managers have a limited effect and it's hard to judge good vs bad when it's the roster construction that matters most in baseball. It's far less a place where a good coach can "take his'un and beat your'un and take your'un and beat his'un"  That being said, if all that we can do is take a look at the record and judge on vibes, I ask : when have the vibes around this team been any good since 2019? Maybe last year they were passable? 

The old school policing. The general lack of ever taking blame? Are we just waiting around to hope the mix  of players hits right again, and Rizzo limits him bullpen options again, so that he can maybe get a team back to the promised land. 

 I know winning percentage is a bad stat to use but also "lowest winning percentage of a manager to win a World Series" has to account for something. "Every single one of those ones with better winning percentages must have just had better teams" doesn't follow, at least to me. 

And if winning percentage doesn't matter why does winning a series? That's mostly the team, right? Like you have to pick a side and either say these things matter just a little and the last 5+ seasons are telling one story or these things don't matter at all and who cares who manages and in that case just fire the guy. 

The way I see it the only arguments for keeping him are "who cares?" or a carefully constructed house of cards where winning the Series 6 years ago counts more today than the 5 seasons that followed because of reasons and we also have to generally ignore half of that season and various questionable strategic decisions and the fact he seemed to be given a purposely limited roster in order to quell his worst impulses and all the obvious luck it takes to win short series?  

Go ahead make your arguments if they aren't these.  I'd love to hear them. I was done with this guy after 2022. Nothing since has proven me wrong. Maybe you have the secret argument.

Monday Quickie - as dead as the team

Yes, I'm not posting as much.  Busy and the team quickly became uninteresting. I should just resort to putting up pics of James Wood.

The Nats got swept by the mediocre Cardinals. Have lost their last 5 after clawing their way back to 2 games under .500.  There's a fairly decent stretch of good teams coming up. ATL, who has basically been an above average team since their awful start for 7 games, SFG, SEA, ARI, CHC, NYM with only Texas and Baltimore for breaks.  Still. before we pack it in let's remember the Nats have played oddly good against good teams and oddly bad against bad ones.

Positives

Lucas Sims is gone.  After trying to hold onto him as long as possible to get value out of that 3 million dollar deal he signed the Nats finally let him go, meaning both of the obvious Opening Day roster mistakes of Poche and Sims are finally gone. Two guys that were bad bets, that performed poorly in Spring Training, that should have never made the roster, finally where they should be : Not here. It's not that the Nats have a ton of solid replacements lined up, or even interesting AAA arms. It's just that even uninteresting AAA arms are a lottery ticket where as Sims and Poche were just wet pieces of paper with maybe numbers written on them, you can't tell it's all smeared.

Let's talk about CJ Abrams 

Since back from his mild injury Abrams is raking to the tun of .357 / .423 / .486.  Abrams and Wood in the top of the order is an exciting combo. Adding Lowe as a general solid bat means a tough inning for any pitcher.  He's swinging at a few more pitches and striking out a touch more but it's more than made up for by hitting the ball a lot harder and at a better angle meaning fewer GB and more line drives. 

We've seen this type of run from Abrams before but at 24 there's still time to think this is sustainable and if it is that means two stars at the plate under 25. That's something right?

Monday Quickie - Nats win a series

This demands a blog post said the commenter so ok. Here! 

Actually this is more - Monday so I can do this short and sweet and I don't care. 

Nats are weird. They've won series from Arizona, Cincinnati, and the Dodgers.  They've lost to the terrible Marlins and the Pirates. Are they as good as the best or as bad as the worst? 

Parker looked bad again matching the "he can't keep that up" stuff we talked about earlier. Williams was not good but it didn't matter. Gore looked more like "good last year Gore" but that's ok if he can make that his usual floor. As we saw that can still hold a good team in check for a chunk of the game. 

The offense feels perfectly ok with Abrams back. I like what Lowe is doing and I think when the weird 1B renaissance calms down (check out some of the names of guys hitting real well at 1B) I think he'll settle into the Top 10. 

I do wish Davey would settle on a line-up but that is not his style. If I'm not wrong they've used 30 different lineups in 35 games.

Plug along. Get better. Don't let anyone get hurt. 

You know what - let's go for more than that.  The Indians aren't this good - they have a weird "get blown-out or win close" thing going on that usually settles on "not that good".  The Cardinals are just perfectly meh. The Nats can win both the home series, go 4-2 and get the fans thinking about .500. 

Where the Nats stand - May

The 2025 picture

The Nats sit at 14-18 today  7 games out of first place in the East and 3.5 out of the final WC spot. Of course numbers like this are silly early (everyone but the Rockies are "in it"). Really it's more looking at rank and the teams around the Nats. 

In the NL East  the Nats have successfully passed the Marlins, but the Braves have successfully passed the Marlins and the Nats after a slow start.  Everything is now pretty much where we expected with two of the Mets/Phillies/Braves fighting for the lead with the third disappointing in some way and the Nats over the Marlins at the back end. No surprises. 

In the WC, you have the Padres and Diamondbacks and the 2nd place Mets/Phillies team and then a few surprises. The Giants have made a nice jump into one of the better starts, the Reds might be better than we think. And the Cubs and Brewers have flip-flopped with the Cubs securely in first and the Brewers in the WC mess. The Nats are a step behind these types in with the "non-competitors" but looking better than the dregs

IOW - for a team that did little to improve in the off-season, unsurprisingly they are playing out to be a lot like last year in terms of competitiveness - meaning not very. 

Individually

A month isn't enough to get a good feel of players seasons but it is enough time for extreme outliers to be looked at to wonder if we hadn't gotten anything wrong in the evaluation of them. IOW - while they should feel some reversion, they may be a step or two better/worse than we thought they were and those bounces won't be as large.

While several young players are scuffling, Josh Bell's start is probably the most worrisome as he was set to be the DH for the season. He's simply not hitting the ball hard at all. He has no speed so if he can't hit for power he's a bad singles hitter. He's making up for it a tiny bit by walking more but that can't nearly compensate.  He could be done, not that crazy for DH type closing in on 33, who peaked at merely good and declined last year as well.

A player more likely to be done though is Paul DeJong. While his glove work remains very good he has not been a good hitter in years, and has been actively bad recently. While Bell might not be right in some way, DeJong still sees the ball well enough to make the correct bat/ball contact, but he can't generate enough bat speed to make that matter. 

We should also keep an eye on Nasim Nunez, whose time in the majors has been limited but also has not hit in AAA this year. Given that he's never been a hitter and he's approaching an age where you'd expect a hitter to really shine he may never have the bat to matter in the majors. A mild waste of effort for the team. 

On the positive side Wood's 2025 has begun with a bang. Lots of them. He is not your traditional great hitter, hitting everything well. Rather he swings hard and gets it right enough to have an extremely positive presence at the plate. As he came up the ranks everyone thought he would be good. It's leaning more toward "superstar" after April. 

For our eye-on player Alex Call, while not quite having a full month, is doing very well. A player that has had these stretches in the past and is 30 (31 in September) tends to be less likely to be a break out surprise but we're taking what we can get.  

Ruiz and Abrams (limited time) look good. Crews, Young, Tena (limited time) do not. But these are "come back at the end of May" results, not extreme

 

Pitchers have larger gaps between what has happened (ERA) and what they've done (fancy stats) and less fit in this mold for review, but we'll give it a go. By results Mitchell Parker qualifies as someone who might really be better than expectations. We talked about before why that was unlikely though and his last game basically went as poorly as a Mitchell Parker game can go. Finnegan is good but also is driven by giving up zero home runs without pumping his GB rate or anything.

Instead of these two, I'd lean into Jackson Rutledge, who may or may not be a good reliever but in limited time has shown some flashes and Gore who pitches like an ace enough that you kind of have to believe it can happen. 

On the down side is basically "the pen" with Poche, Sims, Ribalta and Salazar having just terrible results. Poche is gone now and Sims should follow soon. The other guys though could revert to being just "last guy in pen" bad. 

Trevor Williams, Ferrer, Lopez, Henry all have started slow but again pitching needs even more time to right itself so just stick a pin in these results. 

 

The 2026 Picture

Given this is what they are playing for we should take a look at it and it's not so bad. Wood is rounding into a superstar and no young bat you are counting on is super worrisome at the moment. This could change if Crews has a May like April but let's see that happen. Ruiz is hitting which is good given their commitment to him and lack of another option. In the minors House looks good meaning the Nats could probably have a decent line-up in 2026 bc they'd only have to aim for a DH/1B and an OF (or 2 OF if Wood moves to DH). I wouldn't say things look super bright but you can look at the kids here and see a playoff offense next year with some moves

Pitching is murkier. You do like what you see of Gore and there's no reason to think Irvin/Parker/Lord/etc. couldn't hold down the 3/4/5. But the Nats kind of need an ace or at least a 2nd top pitcher and at least at this very early moment, that hasn't found its way to happening. Even worse Cade Cavalli, who has being counted on as a potential answer, could be hurt again. You can look to arms like Sykora and Susana to fill roles in the future but not really for 2026.

Still "one big bat and one ace" would be expensive but should be workable. Doing that an managing to "fix the entire pen" is a lot harder and right now that seems to be where the Nats organization lies. There is no standout here, no help in the minors, and a bunch of arms you are hoping to find usefulness from before looking for quality.  Hopefully May is kinder to Rutledge and Henry and we can reset this 

Overall

Honestly I'd say the Nats are where they should be for a team that didn't try very hard in the off-season and had a questionable, mostly "graduating" bat heavy upper minor leagues. They are going to be about the same this year. They are not going to get organizational pitching help. Whether they get much better relies mostly on kids bats doing a lot more than expected and right now that hasn't happened. 

As for 2026 you want the younger bats doing well and there's enough of that to feel ok. But you also were hoping for some younger surprises early preferably on the mound, and there hasn't been any of that. So the future doesn't seem any brighter, no dimmer either. It's still at the "could compete, will need significant management buy-in in the form of trades/FAs" 

So... on target I guess. Just wish that was this year because it's the same general place they are right now.

One run princes

8 out of the Nats last 12 games have been decided by one-run.  Another 2 by two runs. This remains not a bad team. It's a team that can hang. But it's not getting over the hump and the improvement in the offense by a couple of slow starters has simply gotten them here from "not close" 

What's up with Nats is lefties KILL them (hitting .307 / .392 / .525 for the season so far) and the relievers are trash.  How so? 

As a reliever 7.47 ERA, opponents hitting .291 / .403 / .472 

Late & Close?  .274 / .351 / .430 

The Nats pitchers get tired (5th Inning : 3.22 / .374 / .500) and the bullpen can't hold it (7th : .289 / .401 / .512, 8th : .349 / .414 / .481). 9th is a little better but overall a .305 / .403 / .865 line for innings 7-9 tell the tale. 

Yes, yes small sample and vagaries and whatever but this is getting ridiculous.  If everyone misses it's far more likely that you built a bad pen then everyone just happened to have a bad start. Yes, some of these guys are better than they show, but some should simply not be here. 

But today is the end of April so tomorrow we can do a full first month recap.  Not as "true" as the Memorial Day look at the team but a good start. Players have had time to work off bad weeks or come back down. Let's figure out a plan going forward tomorrow and see if they bother to follow it.

Monday Quickie - Well that was fun

After a dreary road trip where the Nats looked like they'd compete with the dregs they needed a pick me up and who better to give a team one than the Mets. Yes they had the best record in baseball but the Mets are still the Mets and they played like classic Mets.  A couple of late game meltdowns and the "stay in it" Nats good enough to take advantage. 

One game left in the series, finish it off.

A great former Nat is on his way home

Of course I mean Jesse Winker.  Who did you think?

The Mets come to town this weekend and in with them comes Juan Soto as well as the best record in baseball, a 5 game lead over Philly, and a 7 game winning streak following sweeps of the Cardinals and Phillies. Since the opening 3-game away set loss to the Astros the Mets have lost one series, amazingly to the Twins. Their pitching is great and the offense is doing enough.

At the plate we have to talk about Soto. He is starting slow, and by that he is only above average, an off month for him. He is walking a ton like always with solid power but his contact is a little off.  This has never been a problem for him so let's assume he gets that straightened out, just hopefully for you guys not this weekend. Soto isn't the problem though - none of the stars are. Alonso has been MVP-worthy and Lindor All-Star worthy. It's just what's around them that isn't working, Francisco Alvarez has been out, Baty and Vientos have been bad. Marte is old. Nimmo looks like an early career downslider. Winker is good but a platoon guy.

For the Mets though it comes down to pitching and here everything is working out.  David Peterson is as forgettable as his name but that just means you don't realize what a solid pitcher he's been for two of the last three seasons. Griffin Canning seems happy to be out of Anaheim. Clay Holems IS working as a starter, if only a 5 inning one it is a very effective 5 innings. Kodai Senga is pitching a bit over his head and Tylor Megill is having his best year every continuing the improvement from 2024. It doesn't seem like a lights out rotation but it was one that if everything worked out it could be 5 2/3 types and like I said everything is working out.

Same with the relief core where Edwin Diaz is the weak link.  Everyone brought in and everyone kept is hitting all their targets and then some.  It's one of THOSE starts. 

It'll be a good test for the Nats. Is the Nats relief pitching bad enough that it can't hold the Mets back from late season rallies?  Are the Nats bats good enough that they can score runs against a hot rotation? Weakness vs weakness, strength vs strength, we get an idea of how weak and how strong these things are this weekend.

Things just keep getting worse

 No, no. Just kidding. Maybe for the Orioles. 

Since we're on a lucky/unlucky kick let's see which Nats are due to see things turn around... in any direction. 

HIGH BABIP - (BA should get lower) 

No surprise that Keibert in on here though he's not super crazy high. It should also not surprise you to see Nathaniel Lowe here as well.  A career .260s hitter hitting .290 to start is likely getting some bounces. But what should surprise, shock, and dismay you that Paul DeJong is among the lucky ones. Yikes! Nice knowing you Paul! 

LOW BABIP (BA should get higher) 

The oft-mentioned Dylan Crews and the below expectations Luis Garcia both should see a rise in BA. Josh Bell may be cooked but he's not THIS cooked. 

HIGH HR/FB RATE (should see fewer homers) 

James Wood might be the best HR hitter in baseball by far. But if he's not, expect a few fewer over the fence.

LOW HR/FB RATE

Luis Garcia should get something over the fence soon. 

PITCHING BABIP/LOB/HR/FB

 Mitchell Parker is basically rolling straight 7s, lucky in all aspects. Jake Irvin is also getting fewer hits and letting in fewer runs than you'd expect. The highlights of the pen, Finnegan and what we've seen of Henry should be letting in more runs, though in neither case does this mean the guy should be bad.

PITCHING BABIP/LOB/HR/FB

As you can imagine Sims and Poche are getting unlucky and when you combine that with bad pitching you see horrendous results. Brad Lord and Jose Ferrer are more in line for having improvements that actually should make them usable.  Can you believe Gore could have a bit more luck? His BABIP suggests so and his other numbers are very regular. 

Expect Garcia to get right soon. Expect Paul DeJong to be gone. The starting pitching should get a bit worse and the bullpen should see some competing improvements and scale backs. However replacing Sims and Poche would likely improve it for no cost but Rizzo's pride.   Where they stand now in general (74/75 win team) seems very much what they are.

Mitchell Parker - ace?

 No. 

For all the talk yesterday in the comments about "Crews should be doing better by his fancy stats" (true!) Parker is the opposite. A .191 BABIP? 85% LOB? 2.8% HR/FB rate? 

These are all stats that sort of measure luck. There's skill involved to be sure, and we'll get to it but these also are pulling out luck.  Last year the lowest BABIP was .220, .250 being very low.  The highest LOB% was 83.6%, 79% being very high.  The lowest HR/FB rate was 6.3%, 9.0% being very low. That gives you an idea where things normally sit.  He's clearly abnormal and without a compelling reason to say "he's awesome now!" you say it's luck. But luck is magnified early in the season. Is he just normal and it's the vagaries of a handful of starts? Nah ah.  

BABIP - 5th luckiest

LOB% - 14th luckiest

HR/FB Rate -  5th luckiest

He's lucky among the lucky. His xFIP is 4.60. 

 He does induce soft contact and does not get many barrels. Guys don't square up on him well. But that doesn't account for all of this, or even most of it, and with all his walks (so many!) and so few strike-outs (so few!) this can't possibly continue.  

But as I often say early in the year though - he doesn't have to give this back.  He doesn't have to have a 7.00 ERA over the next 4 games to even it out.  Return to form means pitching like he's earned (mid 4.00s ERA) not cosmic balance. He's still a perfectly decent arm in the rotation, especially for this team. 

In other news Crews hit a homer bc that's what happens when I say bad things about a guy.  Ruiz keeps hitting. Wood keeps hitting for power. Good good. And they beat the Os and that makes me and you happy! 

Monday Quickie - Disappointment Vibes

The Nats went 4-6 for the road trip against the dregs of the National League. What does that tell us? Well, depends.  If you want to be completely honest - nothing - because no particular 10 game stretch in baseball tells you anything definitive. It's 1/16th of a season.  6%.  It's not telling and why we often use Memorial Day - or about 1/3rd of the way into the season as an actual "ok what is this team really like" point. 

BUT

It is long enough to get ideas. Ideas that you stick in your mind to see if the season continues to validate them and a 4-6 road stretch against the dregs of the NL gives you the idea that the Nats aren't too far ahead of the dregs. That this isn't a .500 team looking to surprise but a 70 win team looking to avoid the cellar in their division. The Nats aren't the worst team in baseball. There's simply no catching the embarrassment that is the White Sox or Rockies. But could they end up the 3rd worst team? Well I'd still put my money there on the A's. But 4th worst? Sure.

The main problem remains the pen with Lucas Sims, with his 15.2 ERA (sorry that's not fair. Only a 9.42 FIP and a 2.6 WHIP!) and Colin Poche (15.88 ERA but yes 5.50 FIP but oh no 3.2 WHIP!) still occupying spots as if trying to prove to the Nats decision makers they weren't wrong making these moves that even nobodies like me could see shouldn't be made.  

Fix that though and there is a lingering question about the offense, which in the last 8 games has scored 4, 3, 3, 1, 0, 12!, 3, and 1 runs. The Nats starters are decent but they aren't made to win games where the Nats score 3 runs. We'll get to it tomorrow but the one thing they should do today is demote Crews. Dylan didn't knock the door down to get his major league shot. He simply performed competently enough in AA to get a look in AAA and performed competently enough there to get a cup of coffee to see if he's ready.  He's obviously not. This isn't an indictment on the Nats development, drafting, or Crews' skill.  Great players don't always catch on right away and good players often don't. There's no reason to believe he can't be productive in the majors, even this year. But he isn't that right now and they need to let him get his head on straight. This year is CLEARLY not about 2025 so don't force it.

Shinny to the IL

 Just since we were talking about him yesterday

  https://x.com/MarkZuckerman/status/1912876174654439920

What they needed

They needed a win. Obviously so, as I noted yesterday they were quickly sliding into "uh... what are we doing here guys" territory against some bad competition and if they don't want to BE the bad competition they needed to show something. 

They needed a good Jake Irvin performance. It has been a middling start to 2025 for Jake, who's main role is probably "be good enough to go 6+ innings so the bullpen can get some rest".  He hasn't been and it's mattered especially lacking a 5th starter (Brad Lord ain't it) and Trevor Williams scuffling a bit. The Nats rotation wasn't deep to start the year, now it needs everyone to do what they can do. Yesterday Irvin did just that. In control, lots of ground balls, some swing and miss stuff. Yeah the Pirates stink but as we've said many times - you gotta do it against the bad teams. 

They needed the bullpen not to blow it. They didn't. Jose Ferrer, probably the most "we're going to use this guy in the future" arm and Kyle Finnegan held down the 8th and 9th with one extra base-runner.  Exactly the break and performance the pen needed. 

So the Nats are now reset.  They are rolling out their best results pitcher so far in Mitchell Parker (though really that's more sequencing luck.  Still he has been good, just not under 2.00 ERA good) against Bailey Falter who is just a guy and a guy in 2025 off to a bad start. Win again, get a streak going and momentum to roll the next bad team. 

 

Speaking of no 5th starter - how's it looking in the high minors early on that front?  In AAA Shinnosuke has had a couple of good starts sandwiched around a terrible one.  It was the same team looking at him from 5 days earlier, for whatever you want to make of that. Andry Lara, an actual prospect (22+), has a similar early profile without the "re-seen" and with much fewer innings pitched. Given his tight leash I don't expect him up in 2025 and possibly could end up back in AA a league he handled but didn't dominate last year. That wouldn't be a knock against him though, just a statement of where he is in his development. He's good enough to want to take care of. Minor League Rule V pick-up Hyun-il Choi has been mediocre and oddly pitched just 2 innings last game, but I don't see any injury notes. Chase Solesky, a guy grabbed for org depth, seems to have a AA limit and is not doing well.  That leaves Andrew Alvarez, a 2021 Nats draftee and running a similar skillset as recent Nats call-ups. Re: Can't strike anyone out but doesn't get hit or give up homers.  A bit more wild than others but he might be first up.   The short of it though is - nothing really here. 

How about AA? Any older guys and/or guys doing real well? Jarlin Susana is the guy here with a couple of impressive starts.  He wasn't in AA last year though so the idea of jumping straight to the majors is a stretch given he threw 100 IP last year and that's his most ever. Maybe if he was dominating but he's a step or two from that. Really good, what you want to see as a prospect, but if you were hoping for help tomorrow, not there. 

I'd expect Lord to get another couple shots as they let the AAA guys get a couple more starts in themselves to really get a feel for how these guys are doing.  If it were today Alvarez would get the call but you have to believe they want to call Shinnosuke up and with only one bad start out of three, a couple more ok ones is probably all it takes to get him back in the show. 

Ok well you can lose to Skenes

This game isn't "have to have". Nothing in April will ever be that. But if the Nats want to come out of this road trip feeling good it's hard to imagine it without this win. Losing that they have to go 4-1 in the last five to salvage it. Certainly possible but when you start a road trip 1-4 and sit at 6-11 overall, 4-1 looks a little unlikely in general.

 Worse is just how bad the bullpen looks top to bottom. I understand the variability issue - you can make a good faith effort to build a pen and fail but this didn't feel like a good faith effort.  Especially when you are like "this guy isn't good. We aren't going to spend money on him... oh he's much cheaper. Well then it's ok he's not good" seemed like the way the Finnegan return went. It also doesn't bode well that Finnegan the only guy they were like "no we really are ok without you" is the current best arm (only good arm?) in the pen.  And we've talked about how Poche and Sims were kind of bad bets that showed poorly and yet here they are doing bad... 

sigh. 

Ok. Everyday in baseball is a new day. Get the win.

Monday Quickie - On boring target

Yeah to go 5-5 and tell us nothing they probably had to go 1-2 versus the best team in the bunch and it looks like that might be the Marlins. 

Friday looked to be a mirror-image of what we've seen. The Nats were held down for the start of the game before exploding late on the Marlins bullpen, while the Nats pen held it's own.  Hell, Lucas Sims got the win (maybe his last in the majors!). Saturday the Nats worked a lead off of the still returning to form Sandy Alcantara but in a disturbing development Trevor Williams couldn't hold on to it. While the Nats don't need Williams to be an ace, they do need Williams him to not be bad and he was bad. Given he started blah this isn't a particularly good sign.  But we'll worry about that in four days. Sunday was the more typical game but also featured the starter disappointing. Gore looked more like his 2024 self than 2025, which is perfectly ok and certainly should beat the Marlins but Jorge Lopez and Lucas Sims put the game well out of reach.

Ruiz keeps hitting. and Wood looked good, even when he didn't get a hit like Sunday he still walked three times and stole a base. 

Abrams got hurt and is out.  That means Rosario and DeJong at the same time and many Amed Rosario keeps up his decent start and DeJong has a little power run but more likely they anchor the bottom of the lineup in the "drag to the bottom of the sea" way. 

Ok on to the Pirates and no worse than a 2-2 split. 

In other news

Let's get a lay of the land in the majors after 2 weeks

NL East  - No one has pulled away as both the Mets and Phillies have been carried a bit by their pitching. The Phillies adding a bit of luck. The Marlins are a minor surprise but don't look to be too different from the Nats overall. The Braves are the true surprise with a horrendous start but have been .500 after that and are better than their record. They should catch the Marlins and Nats in the Spring but what does that gap do for catching the good teams?

NL Central - The Cubs have been legit good and threaten to run away and hide with the division given the Brewers are banging the wall both at the plate and on the mound, the Reds are a .500 team at best (great pitching bad hitting) and the Cardinals... well you can squint and see that they could be good but they have to prove it. The Pirates sadly remain the Pirates with no ownership support

NL West -  A stacked division where the Dodgers injuries might finally catch up with them.  Giants and Padres look like they have great staffs. The Diamondbacks are raking.  None of the top four teams are bad at anything.  In contrast the Rockies might be the worst team in baseball this year and in this division than might mean 50 wins. 

AL East - The Yankees bashed their way to fast start but have come down to Earth and it looks like a division full of 85 win teams. The Rays pitching might be enough to surprise in this situation. 

AL Central - The Tigers also got off the a fast start and look allright and in this division of misfits that's probably good enough.  The Guardians should hang around but mainly beacuse the Twins and Royals aren't very good.  Why is the White Sox pitching decent? Should be some good RP trade targets later in the year! 

AL West - The A's are terrible. the rest of the division shakes out to be 75 win teams but someone's got to end up on top and once again the Astros look like the one most likely to do it, sorry. If you want to bet on someone else, bet on the Rangers.  They can't hit this bad forever and Langford looks like Wood looks like.

The dregs (not the Nats!… maybe)

 The nats are in a stretch against the traditionally worst teams in the NL. 10 games vs the Marlins, Pirates and Rockies.  This will really set the tone for the start of the season. 8-2? Let’s go team that’s clearly better than the worst!  2-8?  Big uh-ohs. 

Now of course they are away and will go 5-5 and we’ll learn nothing but I’m pretty interested any way.  Especially in the Marlins series. The Pirates and Rockies are legit bad. The Marlins are not, or still least haven’t started so.  This could determine what sort of fight these teams are in for in the NL East.  Third? Last?  

Bullpen still stinks

The Nats in the off-season didn't do what we wanted them to. Still, after realizing they weren't going to make that big move, we assumed they'd help out a bullpen that looked pretty thin. It was an easy move to secure some improvement (or at least assure as best you can no movement backwards) for a group that was passable last year.  They did not. 

In 2024 the brought in Derek Law who had an better than expected 2023 and looked usable based on the past few years. They brought in Dylan Floro who had a WORSE than expected 2023 but fancy stats were good and historically he had been very solid. This also sort of describes Matt Barnes. And they brought in Jacob Barnes, recent historically bad and not good in 2023 but with fancy stats that suggested maybe something was there. You aren't going to hit on all! (Or maybe just avoid Barneses)

This year Jorge Lopez is sort of a cross between the Barnes. History is pretty hard to read but there are good things and last year was good. Lucas Sims is historically usable but looked worse last year. Colin Poche had some good years but the fancy stats see him more of a last guy int he pen.  

So there isn't a guy with the history of Floro. Poche is a worse bet Law. Lopez is a basically the bet you made on your two other guys in one pitcher.  Fewer guys. Worse bets. The fact you are sitting with a worse outcome isn't a surprise

This all would be acceptable if there were a stud set of arms they wanted to lead the way. There isn't. Last year they hoped Finnegan, Rainey and Harvey would be that. They dropped the nothing special Kyle Finnegan only to pick him back up on the cheap when no one else wanted him. Rainey never became anything and he's gone. Harvey had promise so they traded him and he's had a fast start in KC.  Guys they kept mostly aren't anything. Eduardo Salazar is just an arm.  Jackson Rutledge is a complete unknown with a total of 6 games in relief to go on. Jose Ferrer is he's young and lefty but more likely to be more like Salazar. 

If it wasn't for the emergence of Brad Lord there would be no bright spots to one of the worst pens in baseball and with Davey the type to lean on what works you start to worry about that, if he's even going to stay in the pen as long relief and not be worked into the rotation with Soroka down. 

 It's a fun week after a not so fun one. Abrams and Wood have had fast starts. Keibert as well. Gore looks good and the fancy stats aren't worried about Williams or Parker.  There are things to be excited about if you believe the ownership will finally buy in next year. But the excitement that could be happening this year probably won't and the lack of pen help will likely be a big reason. 

MacKenzie Gore steps up?

 MacKenzie Gore was always supposed to be a star but pitching prospects are extremely fickle. Factor in injuries and his development hasn't gone exactly as planned. Not that he hasn't been useful but if you said before 2020 that going into 2025 Gore's career stats would read 21-26 with a 4.20 ERA, 4.14 FIP and 1.422 WHIP you'd be disappointed.  Those are the numbers of a #3 type starter, not an ace. 

 At the major league level, and really at all levels since 2020, his problem has been two-fold. Too hittable and too many walks.  So while his homer rate has generally been ok and his strikeout rate generally good, guys would get on and guys would get around. His innings would be long and he just couldn't last long into games. He was just another pitcher. 

This year so far we've seen a different Gore.  His control is much better. He's getting ahead of batters (first pitch strike percentage is way up, getting more called strikes, and throwing in the zone more. This is giving him control of the at bats and keeping his walks down but strikeouts high. He appears to be leaning more into his curve ball, arguably his best pitch taking a bit off his fastball and a lot off his slider to make it match his change up more in speed. This is something he did in 2023 but got away from in 2024.  The difference from 2023 though is he was a fastball pitcher who used a slider and curve to mix things up. Last year he really bumped up the change and now he's a four pitch pitcher, where the slider and change hit about the same speed keeping hitters more off-balance. 

Pitching can be about learning what works and doesn't. And what works in the minors isn't necessarily what works in the majors. He could throw that speedball by them and then use a hammer curve and later the solid slider to finish hitters off in high school and low minors. But major league hitters weren't as easily beat. His fastball doesn't quite pop enough to rely on it to beat a hitter (see Ohtani last night) and his slider could be flat at times (see Ohtani last night). Since the curve could be fairly easily identified hitters could lay off that and handle Gore even with in general pretty good stuff. Locate the fastball though, lean more into a hard to hit curveball, make the slider able to be confused with a tumbling change-up, well you start to see what happens. 

I'm not sure this is something that will last. It hasn't been perfect as his start in Toronto was full of hits. And we've seen pitchers run through a couple good starts.  Hell, we've seen them run through a couple good months. But if you could spell out what you wanted to see from Gore early this is it. Honestly looking forward now to his next start to see if we can get more confirmation that he'pitching different and that it makes a difference.

Monday Quickie - vacation again?

 Look I don't set the school schedule. 

The Nats avoided the sweep and as they get ready to take on Toronto here are the takeaways

- the rotation looked good continuing the trend of last year

- The bullpen looked bad 

- the kids weren't alright at the plate

- but the pickups were doing ok 

 

Don't get too excited or sad. It's time to keep watching and see how things go 

It was the best of Opening Days... you know the rest

 If you were hoping Gore would take a step forward, yesterday's game was a dream come true. With all the caveats (First real game for everyone, only one game, afternoon game where it's notoriously harder to hit) Gore looked amazing.  He was completely in control letting only one Phillie reach the basepaths and striking out 13 in only 6 innings. A masterful performance.

Also if you understand the importance of Keibert Ruiz being good (giving he's sort of set to be the starting C for at least a couple more years) seeing him get around on a pitch and drive it over fence - along with having another hit made you smile, too.  Ruiz doesn't have to be good in any certain way.  Low average power hitter instead of high-average line-driver? That's fine. He just has to be above average. Good start. 

The Nats also didn't give up.  Down late they mounted a comeback to send the game to extras.

 Of course the Nats didn't win the game there and there were a couple of "well as long as this isn't that bad" and "no way this could be as bad as last year" that were the reason why prompting deserved worry just one game in.

Gore probably had another inning in him but at 93 pitches on Opening Day, these days most managers would opt to go to the pen. For all of this teams "old school" stylings this team doesn't stray from the script here. The pen was brought in and it looked TERRIBLE. Both Poche and Sims, guys that weren't good and where you looked at Spring and said "oh well they are going to be cut" made the team and immediately performed poorly, blowing the game in the 7th and the 10th respectively.  This is a big worry for a team who's pitching staff is most likely going to be 4ish guys keeping the game respectable for 6 innings. They need the last 3 innings to also be respectable. 

 Also although not directly responsible for the loss, Paul DeJong looked every bit the guy that would be let go by the White Sox because he's not good anymore.  Paul has always been a pretty high strikeout guy and when he gets past that point where he can connect with enough pitches hard to matter he's going to be unplayable. Yesterday suggested he might be there. Third base was a huge hole for the Nats last year, if it's a huge hole again well then there goes some of the expected gains at the plate. 

Which Nats do you want to focus on - the promise or the horror? Opening Day gave you both.

What's your win guess?

It's pretty safe to say the Nats won't make the playoffs. The Nats are clearly the 4th best team in their own tough division leaving one WC spot for them to contest. To do that they'd likely have to get something in the neighborhood of 16 games better, a huge jump when you're not starting at 50 wins. Even when you make a concerted effort to improve by leaps and bounds that's too big an ask and the Nats didn't make a concerted effort to improve that much.

 But the Nats are better, or at least should be slightly.  Offensively for sure. First base, with the addition of Nathaniel Lowe, likely becomes very solid. Paul DeJong a 3B isn't going to wow anyone anymore but could hardly be worse than the Lipscomb/Senzel/Vargas/Tena manning. There are real possibilities of breakouts from Wood and/or Crews and Abrams and Garcia both can also improve. Only Bell replacing the 2/3rds a year of Winker stands to be worse. 

Starting pitching is a bit of a mystery with a lot hinging on the development of Gore and the reliability of Williams (both health and results). The other guys are here to be average. There's a lot of ways this can swing as there doesn't seem to be anything reliable here outside of Gore should not be bad. But letting it all even out and land on an average, if unexciting, rotation seems the simplest answer. 

Relief pitching probably does take a step back. Neither Poche or the likely roster maker Sims match up to Law and Floro in expectations (and that's not a high bar) and the loss of Harvey also hurts. But unless the pen totally implodes that's unlikely to matter more than the improvement at the plate. 

On the basepaths the Nats were very aggressive and that really helped support the team's offense. The team is still young and none of the losses and additions suggest a change in approach so we'll assume the same stategy and results. 

 

Fancy stats wise the Nats were basically the team they showed as, 71-91.  If they are slightly better I can see them getting to 74-75 wins.  If that isn't because of a fast start that means not only do the Nats not make the playoffs, but they aren't ever really in the picture.  That's what most of the pundits are thinking. I would say that's fair. 

This is a team that could have been built to be over .500 and have a shot to get into the playoffs if things broke their way. It wasn't. The Nats continued their slow improvement looking toward the kids for any real push forward. With a handful of top prospects that could happen, but I'm going with the safe bet and just expect a few games better in 2025 and the set-up for a make or break off-season between the ownership and the fans. 

 74-88 

DJ Hurtz

 DJ Herz is going on the IL.  His ligament is sprained and that's not good news from probably the most interesting young starting pitcher. It's also a stark reminder that while Trevor Williams only gave the Nats 1/3 of a season and Josiah Gray got hurt in the early part of April, they virtually escaped injury once they were rolling. Decent pitching that comes out every day can do a lot for a team. Hell it almost carried the 2005 team to the playoffs!

 Pretty disappointing for a number of reasons but we have to move on with what we have

 And what we have with the rotation is now set for sure with Shinny gettng the expected send down. 

 Gore - Williams - Soroka - Irvin - Parker. 

 A lot rides on if Gore will EVER make the next step and if Williams' success is some sort of fever dream. Yes and No, it could be an interesting, if ultimately futile season. No and Yes and hey Miami, mind if we join you? 

The rotation is the only thing set.  The bullpen is still fighting over the last spots. Poche made it (as far as I can tell solely to be another lefty) and Law looks pretty certain to be out on the IL. Lord, Ribalta, Rutledge, Salazar and Sims are not locked in.  All I've heard is that Sims is in, in the "let the veteran arm do his thing" which then means the Nats will have two guys, in Poche and him, that aren't that good and showed badly in the pre-season. Sigh.  Ok look I like Salazar. I hope he makes it.

For some reason Riley Adams is still fighting with Andrew Knizer for the bench catcher and Adams would have to clear waivers.  They got rid of Nunez and with Chappy hurt that leaves Tena and Yepez if Rosario is hurt. 

Anyway - we'll find out just before game time Thursday for some clown show reason. 

Eh let's get 2025 over with.

More like No-gas-awara

There are more obvious plays off his first name but you come here for creativity. 

The Nats signed Shinnosuke Ogasawara for a 2 year 3.5 million dollar contract. The deal remains a low ball try something deal so if it doesn't work out it's not a big thing. But man, it doesn't seem to be working out.  The guy had a problem missing bats in the Japanese league, relying on strike zone control and the Japanese Leagues overall low homer rate to get decent results. In Spring though it looks like he can't miss enough bats. They are getting hits and homers off of him at a high enough rate to force him to try to do things to miss those bats, leading to more walks which negates his one strength. 

I don't know what you do about this because that was always a possibility.  Essentially he's a AA/AAA pitcher with decent results but not much of a prospect called up to see what he can do. We've seen a ton of those and they usually fail, for a lot less than 3.5 million too. 

If you want to look to him as a reliever then you might focus on a 2022 that featured a higher than average K-rate as evidence he can step it up. Of course that's basically the only season he's done that in his 20s but it was recent, I guess. 

Whatever you think I can't see him starting in the majors. It's AAA for Shinnosuke. 

Nats make more cuts.

 Nothing surprising but Hassell, House, Lipscomb, Garrett, Clay Helvey, and Andrew Pickeney were all sent packing... to the minors.   That leaves 35 healthy men on the roster so 10 more to cut.   here's a list

One of the C goes, they definitely won't carry Yepez AND Tena, two starters are definitely gone a couple relievers and probably all the NRIs (Knizer, Poche, and Lord) none of which are making a mark.  that's an easy nine.  I'd bet on the other of Yepez/Tena going down and there you have it. We done. 

Starters - Herz is having issues that scream "send me down to work it out" and Ogasawara needs to be evaluated to see where he should be.  That's pretty easy, too.  

Relievers is a little tougher because a bunch of guys who should make it look real bad. Finnegan, Law, Lopez, Sims.   Of course they haven't pitched much at all so expect Sims the only odd man out here. Make me guess and I'd say Rutledge is back down to get more in the reliever mindset but what do I know. 

Getting close to Opening Day (US version).  Not excited but it'll be good to have a daily distraction back

Monday Quickie - the chaff has been cut

When it comes down to it Spring is about getting ready, both the players and the team and the team getting ready means figuring out it's positions and roster spots.  There aren't many huge questions for the Nats though.

 SP 

Williams and Gore are given and Mike Soroka had the inside track if he didn't crash and burn and he's actually looked good. Among the remaining 4 you have to figure Jake Irvin's age and slight experience edge gives him the next spot leaving #5 open for DJ Herz, Mitchell Parker, and Shinnosuke. That might not have been true going into the spring but since the start Irvin has pitched well and none of these guys have so those fringe decisions decided by Spring lead to Irvin being set. 

So someone out of the rest will start.  My money is on Herz but it could be Parker if DJ clearly needs to dial back in the strike zone. I don't give Shinno much of a chance.

RP

Finnegan, Law, and Ferrer are set as good arms here last year. You figure Jorge Lopez is set as well in that "veteran who has been sort of good recently" type they bring in.  Lucas Sims is interesting in that he's never been that good and his Spring has been weak so while he should join Lopez in that rent a vet role he's opened up a chance to pitch himself out of it... if he didn't already have a roster spot. I suppose enough guys could force the issue but it hasn't happened. Luckily for him a make or break guy is Evan Reifert the Rule V pick-up who has to stay on the roster all year if the Nats like him and he's not been particularly good. Also lucky for him Colin Poche, who'd also need a roster spot, has been terrible. No, Sims stays and likely Salazar bc he has that roster spot right now too and then Oscar Ribalta who has looked good to fill in the last spot?  Is that enough? I don't know. Does it matter here? 

Offense

It's pretty set with Lowe, Garcia, Abrams going 1st, 2nd SS. Ruiz at C. Bell at DH. Wood and Crews in the OF.  The last OF spot will be Young with Call likely in the 4th OF role. Riley Adams is basically the only back-up C in Spring. Amed Rosario as utility men, at least to start the season. I feel personally like the question that remains is do you go with the Not a 3B but has shown himself at the plate consistently well Andres Chaparro or D first vet Paul DeJong at 3B.  My guess is DeJong for defense and scrappy GM favorite type play. If that's true than maybe Chaparro doesn't make the team at all and Yepez does since this person would mainly be just a bat. Tena is the odd man out here. Nunez I'd guess they'd want to see him play everyday in AAA first given his limited game time last year. 

 

Not exactly thrilling but here we are

 

MASN dispute resolved

Here you go. 

What's it mean? It means first we can stop talking about this thing which always drove a small wedge between me, who thought MLB were the bad guys, and Nats fans, who saw the Orioles as that. I won't relinquish my position. 

When the Expos moved to DC what SHOULD HAVE happened was MLB should have told the Orioles to stuff it, "broadcast rights areas" are made up nonsense, we're putting a team here. The O's wouldn't necessarily had a legal leg to stand on because this is all true.  Of course MLB is made up of owners and owners don't want to break that broadcast rights areas" agreement (or didn't at the time) because it was crucial to soaking cable channels for rights fees or cable providers for channel fees. So instead they gave the Orioles control of the Nats broadcast for a certain time and dollar amount. 

 What SHOULD HAVE happened next is "too bad, so sad" Nats, MLB got you a bad deal but a deal is a deal. Instead after a few years and when the Nats finally had ownership, MLB basically started working with the Nats to try to get out of the deal using questionable arbiters and rulings. The Orioles sued over it and we ended up in forever litigation bc the core components, if you push it, who can make these money decisions based off what, were very gray. 

The funny thing is just letting things go in a more black and white way would have probably put the Orioles over a barrel anyway with far less legal leverage but no one had the patience for that. 

Now it means the Nats have their broadcast rights and can be sold and perhaps it means that Ted Leonsis, who wants both the team and stuff to air on his channel, will get the team.  Or someone else. Or no one else. Or the rights are secretly promised to MLB for whatever their plans are. Really we don't know. 

However when it comes to the Nats, MLB and broadcast rights deals we can be sure there is some back alley deal that was made.Why break tradition?

Monday Quickie

Anything going on in Spring so far?

The same song and dance - we look for things that are WAY out of line to suggest injury or issues or I guess a new beginning because just generic really good stats or really bad stats should be ignored completely. Nothing proven but gives us things to keep an eye on early in the season when things matter to see how real they actually are. This is even before that - which is coming out of Spring. This is stuff to keep an eye on for next start because what else are you going to do? Just sit back and enjoy some baseball? 

No real homer busting for the Nats but Robert Hassell has hit 1 homer and three doubles (though granted in about double everyone elses ABs.  He's going down to AAA but also is a fringy player so they are pumping his ABs while they can).  As a top level prospect who had an injury that sapped his power and didn't seem to recover yet this is interesting. 

If you are a Drew Millas, Amed Rosario, or Yohandy Morales fan - very early signs aren't promising. However outside maybe Yohandy you probably aren't interested.  

Alex Call has taken 8 walks in 17 PA.  Maybe trying to re-invent himself? 

Pitching is a harder because they are really trying new things or are focused on getting something down and may not care too much about results. To keep an eye on : 

DJ Herz has been really wild. Shinnosuke looks like a AAA pitcher. Cole Henry looked real sharp. Soroka was sharp (but his stats match Adon's if you are wondering how fleeting these glances should be with those eyes)

Admittedly bored

 I don't know.  I thought the kids would interest me more.  Maybe once the season starts. I think there's general malaise at this not being THE season everything starts. 

Anyway the Nats resigned Kyle Finnegan.  Is it exciting? Nope.  Does he make the pen better? Well simple question - is he better than who would have been the worst guy in the pen? Answer - yes.  So answer to the first question - yes. 

I will take a moment to do my usual ST schtick. 

Did you know Trey Lipscomb hit .400 in Spring last year?  Joey Meneses .296.  Trevor Williams threw to a 7.20 ERA. Richard Bleier to a 1.69 ERA. 0.75 WHIP?   

Again - don't believe these stats

Monday Quickie - Paul DeJong and giving up

Over the weekend the Nats signed Paul DeJong. DeJong (pronounced de-young to rob everyone of fun El Kabong references) started his career in 2017 as a promising young IF hitting with power and average and fielding SS very well, but his inability to ID the strike zone killed the average and he became a "pop only" guy. But still if you can field and hit homers that's a nice combination. That lasted for a few years but in 2020 he got COVID, in 2021 he broke a rib, and since then he's battled back pain. The combination stomped on the corpse of what was his average and he was a liability at the plate for several seasons. He managed to get his power back for the first time since 2019 last year, but he also had his first poor season in the field even though he was playing only 3B. Did the Nats need another DH?

Actually that might be interesting in a weird way.  Josh Bell, DH apparent, is a switch hitter but unlike a lot of switch hitters he is better from the right side of the plate hitting lefties. DeJong is a RHB but hits right handed pitching better than LHP. So platoon? OK sure, but neither are 'mashers'.  Its a platoon to get half a WAR better, not any real advantage

So he might hit but he also might be a DH and he turns 32 mid year. What's the point?

I don't know. The age and recent past don't suggest a good trade candidate. Presumably the Nats signed Amed Rosario for some reason. 

All I can think of is trade. If you were going to try to move Brady House or CJ Abrams or Luis Garcia for something well then a bunch of 2B/3B/SS fill-ins would be necessary but this would be PRE-SEASON.  There isn't need for fill-ins come September. 

When a signing like this happens it matters where it fits in the process. This isn't a final piece, complementing several bigger moves. This is one move of many trying to find something that works. That's worrying. That feels like a white flag going up for 2025. 

Bregman a Red Sox

The Nats could have afforded to sign him.  Honestly they can afford to sign anyone with this payroll. 

While it seems like a huge overpay it really isn't based on the current market rates for production and what Bregman does. The gamble is that he doesn't get injured or continue his slide. The former is just something you have to live with.  The latter is more worrisome but is what makes him available. It took teams a couple of years but they realized current Bregman (does nothing wrong) isn't past Bregman (a beast) and they began challenging him, getting ahead, and getting him to chase more. The end result was production bouyed by the quirk of defensive stats.

The hope would be he does really well and opts-out or does about what he did the past couple of years but decides to stay, so you get him without committing to his down years. 

 It's a good contract. Has risks. But it doesn't bind the Red Sox for too long.

 Seems like the Nats would have had to put out something like 5/200 to get him. 

 Just spitballing bc pitchers and catchers interest no one after Day 1.  

Pitchers and Catchers Report - Let's try to be excited

Yes it's disappointing the Nats have seemingly passed on the season. But there's still reason to be excited about baseball this year in DC.  Let's think about it. 

1) This is the first full season for James Wood, who was good last year, and Dylan Crews, a consensus Top 5 prospect in baseball. The future is NOW (even if it is JUST the future) 

2) Luis Garcia took a real step forward last year and it'll be interesting to see if that's a fluke, his ceiling, or the prelude to a break-out

3) CJ Abrams had extended moments of looking like one of the most exciting players in baseball. If he can string more of those together....

4) Nathaniel Lowe is pretty good!  That'll be fun after a year of crappy 1B.  Nats fans appreciate a solid 1B

5) Trevor Williams looked like an ace every time he was on the mound last year. If that keeps up the Nats will have a steal

6) Gore and Herz and Parker are 26 and under and pitched better than their ERA suggested.  Gore has the pedigree. Herz had something of a break-out season continuing the numbers he showed in the minors despite fancy stats suggesting he might not. Arms to watch! 

That's a pretty decent list right? 

There is a youth movement here that should blossom into something better than the team is now. There is talent here and the likelihood of more fun and interesting baseball in 2025.  Will it be more WINNING baseball. Well, the team left it up to the baseball gods but while that's a shame it doesn't mean the season is 100% over or unwatchable.

AND if they do blossom and it's a fun season of near contention then we can REALLY yell if they don't put money in next off-season 

Sure got quiet out there

 We got a column a week ago from Barry that was basically "Is this it?" 

It's getting late as pitchers and catchers will start to trickle in next week and the Nats still seem like a team whose off-season is only 75% done and that's factoring in the lowered expectations. 

The Nats solved the 1B issue in their typical "savvy but let's not go crazy" way and stuffed the rotation with... well stuff... in the hopes that a strong rotation emerges from the intriguing if not inspiring raw materials.

But the bullpen seems 2-3 arms short, 3B is to be manned by hopes and dreams and the DH question was answered with a shrug. 

 The answers being so limited and the questions still remaining all point to the same thing. The Nats aren't trying to compete this year.  

That's disappointing for a team now 6 years removed from their last winning season. A lost season (say under 75 wins) this year is completely possible and it would give DC the longest stretch it has seen without hitting 80 wins. 

 Fans got their championship and it's lucky that they did bc I think they'd be turning on the management otherwise. 

But this is the lot we've been given this year. Wait and see... again. Evaluate... again. Look to next offseason... again. The first time, after 2023, was understandable. That would have been aggressive. This time, when the window should be opening with some young talent on hand, feels overly cautious if one wants to be generous. Next time will be unforgivable if it happens. 

But there's still time to try something and we don't evaluate until things are over. And it's not bleak. It just remains cloudy and dull when if could have been sunny and exciting.

Monday Quickie - Flaherty off the board

It was seeming more and more a pipe dream with the depth of non top-line starters the Nats have brought in but in case you were hoping for that one guy that might head the rotation, well... stop hoping. Jack Flaherty signs with the Tigers. There are guys still out there (Kyle Gibson, Nick Pivetta) but none that you can convince yourself could lead a rotation. Now he's probably NOT a rotation leader, so it's not like they lost out on the next Scherzer, but the combination of skill, age, and last year performance suggested it wouldn't be a total surprise if he pitched like a 1/2 in 2025 and a few years more. 

The Nats appear done in FA to some degree though we still hope we'll see some more RP moves. 

Could something happen in trade? It hasn't been rumored but guys, until we hit the end of February let's assume it's all still a work in progress,

Relivers left

The Nats need another relief arm (or two) and for a team that hasn't spent a lot of money it seems like an easy place to put some of that and make an impact. The Nats don't have a deep pen. They don't have a bunch of AA and AAA relief arms dying to get up. 

The major league signings recently have been relief focused so it's worth a perusal to see who's left.

VERY GOOD LAST YEAR

We're left with the old. David Robertson (40) and Kenley Jansen (37). Both these guys have been nothing short of great if you look at their careers, however lacking the save chances leaves Robertson as an afterthought to most fans compared to Jansen. But it also leaves him more affordable. At 40 he won't get more than a 1yr deal with an option. Current talk revolves around the Cubs. Jansen on the other hand will look for either real big money or a final secure contract and he's looking for a contender. So while the Nats have been floated out there he many not be as interested in coming here for a team that is still at least one year away. 

GOOD LAST YEAR

Danny Coulombe was right across the way in Baltimore finally putting it together and having that complete year his stats suggested was possible. Although it was really a complete HALF year due to injury. If you think he's healthy and able to repeat last year he could be a steal. The Yankees look close to picking him up.

Hey Dylan Floro! A consistent keep the ball in the park pitcher is not flashy but is definitely solid and proved it again in DC after an off 2023. There isn't a lot of talk so here's where I think the Nats could jump in. Excited yet?

Jakob Junis is a failed starter who moved into long relief for good in 2023. 2024 was better with him showing incredible control which helped keep his hits down. Doesn't K guys and gives up the occasional homer but if he's hitting his spots like 2024 he'd be a better Floro.

CLASSIC NATS TARGETS

Alas, the Nats in their "win later, maybe" mode are probably looking for guys like they brought in last year. Not old guys who weren't great in 2024 but that is probably a little fluke and they should pitch fine in 2025 and maybe they can flip them or keep them depending. Not STUFF guys either, more control and homer depressers. To that end :

Trevor Gott sits on the fringes of being a good reliever with the ability to keep homers and walks down... sometimes. He missed 2024 with injury so probably there on a minor league deal. 

Colin Poche is an unexciting Rays castoff who would be only 31 this year and in 2023 really held down homers. He walks a bit too much but his minor league numbers suggest the homer suppression can be kept up. 

Ryan Yarborough was a guy who lived off the fact he didn't walk many people so the hits and homers he gave up were less impactful. Last year was his first full time short reliever season and showed some promise.

Brent Honeywell Jr. can't strike out anyone but doesn't want to. His numbers last year and in the minors make you think he can keep the walks down and if he can then he would be actually good. Plus he is a record holder (most pitches in one World Series inning - 50) 

Pencil me in for Floro and Yarborough and Rizzo calling it a day.

Monday Quickie - quick divisional review

Sadly in baseball division mean less and less as they work to more "equal" schedules which are worse for players (travel), worse for the quality of baseball in general (travel and maybe a bit of juice lost), mostly neutral for home team fans (again juice lost - losing a bunch of games versus rivals to get a few games versus a team that might draw), but appease owners who want to make it as easy as possible to make the playoffs and don't like it when they are stuck in a tough division. 

Still you do play more games against your division so the quality of those teams do matter. That's been tough for the Nats as the Phillies, Braves and Mets have all been good recently and seem committed to winning right now. Has the off-season changed anything?

 Phillies

The Phillies most noticeably lost bullpen arms. Jeff Hoffman who developed into quite a good end of game arm the couple years they had him and Spencer Turnball who has been a good long reliver.  But they basically swapped the Blue Jays Jordan Romano for Hoffman. If Romero is healthy (he is coming back from surgery but looks good so far) it's close to a push as Romano is also very good.  And for Turnball they brought in old Nats favorite Joe Ross. Overall a slight downgrade on these but just slight. And the pen may be even less important for them in 2025 as they traded for Jesus Luzardo to fill out the rotation which should be an improvement over what they were running in the 5th spot last year, while waiting for top prospect Andrew Painter. 

Offensively they brought in Max Kepler to be one guy in the line-up who doesn't strike out like crazy. The offense was good though, didn't lose anything so unless age gets them (unlikely but possible) they should be good here again. 

Braves 

The Braves lost quite a few pieces. Jorge Soler, who they traded for, and did well for them. Dependable Travis d'Arnuad, disappointing Gio Urshela, and good reliever AJ Minter.  More importantly they let two arms go in Charlie Morton and Max Fried. They remain at least one arm short which is worrisome for a team that has seen their young arms continually get injured. 

The offense is more secure with Jurickson Profar replacing the fading Adam Duvall as good depth. It's a younger offense that didn't perform up to expectations last year, but still managed to be average. 

Mets

Cohen's Boys have been extremely active.,  They haven't technically lost much yet - just Luis Severino but only because so much of their 2025 roster remains unsigned starting with Pete Alonso. They seem to be letting go of good depth Harrison Bader, surprise hitter Jose Iglesias. Solid if old JD Martinez, rotation arm Jose Quintana, and relievers of various goodness Phil Maton, Drew Smith and Adam Ottavino. Whew

But they added JUAN SOTO and Clay Holmes to start maybe and AJ Minter and Frankie Montas and Jesse Winker and Jose Siri to replace Bader's late game D and some other depth pieces.  Whew again. 

For all that they still have rotation depth and relief questions. 

The Phillies should be about the same. Great starting pitching, great offense, and a bullpen that should be good enough to let them run at a mid 90s win total. 

The Braves are seemingly letting it ride with the younger bats turning it back on and carrying the team again. Acuna, Harris, Albies and Olson could (should?) all do a bit better and if they all do the offense takes a big turn positive, enough to probably cover the mishmash of hopes and dreams in the rotation behind Sale. There's real big variance here. 

The Mets should offensively smash teams, and they have enough pitching to hold ground on the mound though depth could bite them right now. It would be wise of them to complete the team with a SP and RP but with already tons of money in the team and possibly throwing money at Pete Alonso that could be it. It's a playoff team but some smart final moves could make it a WS favorite. 

 

Tough road for the Nats but there is an opening IF things falter for the Braves. If they don't the Nats will have a hard time getting within 10 games of any of these. There's always the Marlins!