So if you want to know what we guessed in wins it's here. I had them at 71. The group leaned into a bit higher but the winner in the clubhouse would be Matt with "high 60s" Not quite! We all lose by Price is Right rules.
We'll spend the week going over the season (promise!) but the general tone of it was one of disappointment and now a bit of concern. The team is in the midst of a rebuild but also starting over with a new GM and new manager and that could easily kick the can on the rebuild another 5 years down the road. The pieces in place that look good (Wood, Gore, Abrams) are more likely then to be pieces sent away for the next set of magic beans than cornerstones of the next Nationals playoff team. Let's hope this isn't the case but we must accept it could be.
Part of the problem was the lack of stepping up and the stepping down of players from last year's surprisingly watchable squad. The Amazing Fifth Starter Squad showed themselves to be... well 5th starters. The Trevor Williams bubble burst. Cavalli and Herz got hurt. Brady House and Dylan Crews in their first long stretches in the majors were not good. Jacob Young played himself out of a role. Nathaniel Lowe dogged his way out of DC. Ruiz continued to regresss if that was possible. Just a mess of "could be" answering "nope. not me. not this year at least"
Along with that is the uncertainty of ownership. The Lerners do not seem committed as a group to the team and they've even put it out there they'll sell for the right price, but can they get it?
We did see the last of Rizzo and Davey which for most people was a relief. You know how I felt about Davey a manager that managed to undershoot expectations for the vast majority of his tenure with the team ending with the 2nd worst WP of any Nats manager even with the 93 win World Series team under his belt. Good riddance I say. Rizzo I'm more on the fence about. He certainly showed his knack for trades and at times free agent signings but under a tighter budget where player development mattered more, his weakness was exposed. The man loved an all-in prospect strategy that gambled for the big impact players but left the minors shallow. When it hit it worked but when it didn't... well you see. Perhaps the last round of these will pan out and give the next GM a solid base. Willits looks real good and two of their other best prospects are from the last draft.
But that's the problem isn't it? Outside of Susana, who we should see next season, everyone who should be here for THIS rebuild is here. And it's not coming together. It's early but there's also not like a long window to these things. They have another year, maybe two and then you gotta decide to move on or not. Right now the data says move it. Are you ready for another 4-5 years in the wilderness?
It could be different. If the next management group believes in these guys and signs some help. That will be their first job and how they react this off-season will tell us what we likely need to know about the next 5 years.
I’d have to believe that any new PBO hire would have staked out a vision and asked for a certain financial commitment to see that through. So I’m hoping Toboni will have more leeway to spend than Rizzo seemed to. And I’m encouraged by his focus on player development. I’m more optimistic going into next year than I was this year.
ReplyDeleteMy fear is that, when the Lerners interviewed for PBOs, they went for the lowest bidder. My hope is that Donald is right, and Toboni wanted a lot of money to rebuild the team. I'm looking to see if the Nationals establish a second DSL team.
DeleteI’m happy with a rebuild process if Paul Toboni can be trusted to get it right (or at least follow accepted industry and statistics-infused processes). The Commanders went through a similar total tear down after having done that several years before, and the results are promising (obviously jump-started by Jayden Daniel’s, but the improvement in GM quality is noticeable). Here’s hoping Toboni is able to right the ship, even if it takes 5 years to build a consistent winner
ReplyDeleteIf the rebuild process can start with the minors and the player development process, then yes. This is the aspect that Rizzo most greatly seemed to neglect, particularly in the 2020s. Getting the fundamentals right is the thing that really sticks out as a flaw in the Rizzo-Martinez regime.
DeleteThis is a good analysis. The Nats' old multi-year rebuild desperately needs a new multi-year rebuild, done well this time.
ReplyDeleteI would expect some changes but I would be surprised if an entire new rebuild is instigated.
ReplyDeleteFor example, middle infield defense is subpar, but both Abrams and Garcia have value. Nationals should be able to trade one or both and get back equal value.
Are we going to presume that Crews and House are duds?
Are we going to presume that Cavalli, Sykora, and Gray aren't top tier material?
Oddly enough, there are more strategies available to mid-market MLB teams beyond "Go big NOW!" or "Blow it all up and rebuild for another 4-5 years!"
ReplyDeleteAlso--have you seen any actual new datapoints (interviews, comments, notes etc) more recent than last year indicating the Lerners are still seeking to sell the team? All I've seen on the subject of whether the Nats are currently up for sale are endless rehashes of "Well, they put the team on the market and then later pulled it off the market".
At this
My reading of the tea leaves, which I completely pulled out of the ether, is that the Lerner's want to sell the team, but the sales price they seek is greater than the estimated free market value of the team. So they're stuck with an asset they would rather be free of.
DeleteTed Leonsis has made several comments about wanting to buy the Nationals but the Lerner family is not currently selling. The vibe I got from his comments was along the lines of I'll pay what we discussed but not more. I think he is waiting to see if the Lerners will come down on their price. I also read a story in the Post that made it seem that everyone in the Lerner family wants to sell except for Mark Lerner. Thus the worsening of the budget and such. It is a half-hearted ownership group at this point.
DeleteThere is also the depressing possibility that the Lerner's told Toboni whatever he wanted to hear and have no plans hold their end of the bargain.
ReplyDeleteMy reading of the tea leaves is that the Lerner family is waiting until Ted's will clears probate and that after it does Mark will buy out any family member looking to cash out and solidify the current "family consensus" decision making model.
ReplyDeleteGiven his hotshot reputation and apparent status as GM heir apparent in Boston, I find the idea that the Lerners hired Toboni because he was the least expensive option to be pretty laughable. But we'll find out more tomorrow morning at his opening press conference.
A possibility that no one seems to have considered: what if (and bear with me here) the Lerners got Toboni into the room by promising to increase spending. And Toboni looks at the org from top to bottom and says "now is not the time to increase spending except on tech and analytics. Hold off on players until the team's foundation is stronger." Would we still be angry at the Lerners for this?
I don't care if I lose by price is right rules, *I* think I'm a winner, and that's all that matters, right? Right?!?
ReplyDeleteI'm not quite sure if I really got the reasoning right, but it wasn't terrible:
"I'm feeling pretty pessimistic -- let's say high 60s wins? I'm guessing the pen will be a tire fire, Bell is done, very skeptical of DeJong, and with Herz already down they're pretty close to ending up with pitchers getting MLB innings who shouldn't be (not saying that's where they are now, just if a couple of guys get injured or underperform there's not a great AAA plan anymore). Not feeling optimistic about Ruiz. And I guess I'm feeling there are as many young guys who could step backwards as forwards. Yeah, Wood and Crews will probably be better, but Abrams and Garcia and Young could all get worse. Hope I'm wrong!"