I'll go with NEARLY everyone gone. Garcia and Griffin sure. I'll say Williams for scraps. And hell Chaparro and Crews for some random arms because they need random arms and not random bats.
I'll say though when the smoke clears Abrams is still here. I think they are looking to get blown away for CJ. They won't be because the market doesn't look at an out of position guy having possibly a career year the same way they look at a Sot. Not that THAT'S the benchmark for the deal they expect - just saying you look at a guy differently who's always produced than one that's just doing it. It'll be a gamble to keep him because I think they are going to trade him eventually and whatever is the "not blown away deal" this year is likely going to be better than what you can get next year unless Abrams repeats this plate performance.
This is undoubtedly the most depressing thing you could have written. That means the team going forward is Wood, House, Cavelli, Ford/Ruiz, Lile, and Early. Its a mix of the near-certain to the very promising to the maybes/unexciting. It is at least five position players, three starting pitchers and four relief pitchers away from an okay team. A million miles away from a good team unless a $150 million or more in FA spend is in the cards. The management team thus far has talked about a dynasty, but seemed to be creating one by one shrewd trade and signing at a time. I just don't see them blowing it all up.
ReplyDeleteI think they are going to hold to an aggressive line for everyone good. For Abrams, that's an FV60 and 2 FV50s. For Garcia and Griffin, I think it's more like a back end top 100 guy or 2-3 FV45s. And I think they only get an offer like that for one of the three. I'm going to guess Griffin goes, and the other two stay.
ReplyDeleteI also think we're going to see at least one trade that brings in a meh reliever for prospects outside our top 25.
I think Griffin is gone. I think Abrams stays. If Abrams is traded, it will be because someone is overpaying.
ReplyDeleteI'm changing my thinking on Garcia. I'm hopeful the FO thinks a WC spot is plausible in 2027. Garcia absolutely has value as a LH-platoon 1B or DH in 2027. I think there are some decent substitutes for that in the org (and potentially in free agency), but Garcia is here. I think this is a scenario where he's worth more to the Nats than he is on the trade market. If he was a a free agent at the end of the year, he'd definitely be gone. But given his (potential) value to next year's club, he stays.
The rest: it doesn't matter in expectation. If somebody wants to trade something for Littell or Mikolas, it's going to be a middling prospect. Such a prospect could end up being a hit, but there would be no reason to expect that. Same thing if we trade a meh prospect for a meh reliever.
One thing that I can guarantee is that, if they do trade Abrams, no matter what they get in return, we will assume that they passed on a better offer at this year's deadline and complain about it.
ReplyDeleteWhat I WANT to happen: trade Griffin and Garcia for controllable arms. The pitcher market is really hot, and I think if you packaged the two of these guys together, you could get a solid prospect. The hard part are the teams in need of pitching that are likely to be buyers don't really have great arms to be had in the minors, so then you're trading Griffin for a backend starter
ReplyDeleteGiven that, what I think actually happens is Griffin for a lotto ticket, Garcia stays because, as anon put it, he's more valuable to the Nats than basically anyone else as a platoon bat, and then some tinkering at the edges with bench guys and/or high minors guys
End of the day, the Nats seem to be victims of their own success right now and I don't realistically see any major moves happening
I think they may be hoping for arms, but I bet - if they do trade him - they will take the best offer available. Were that to mean getting decent to good position player prospects instead, at least having too deep of a farm system not a bad problem to have.
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