What's coming

 The Nats season is over in the "compete for anything worthwhile" but it's far from over in the "kids development sense" we know about the kids that are here and doing well. What's coming down the pike? 

 

More time for kids here 

 

Brady House - looks like a talented kid up for the first time.  Strong swing, solid form but he's getting fooled a lot. Works out to about an average bat in his limited time. A little iffy in the field so far. If he can just slightly improve across the board that's a win because he's right now he's probably a just good enough player (think Luis Garcia) and you gotta figure they'll be a chance for a real step up in 2026. 

Dylan Crews - is still out though before the ASB, and after he had worked himself back to "when is he going to be playing games" figure sometime in the next week. That could be today, maybe this weekend. No rush. Fairly similar to House but his form at the plate isn't good which negates a lot of the strength in it. Chases a bit less though and is starting to warm up in the field.  The goal for the next couple months? Get the ball into the air more. 

Daylen Lile - can really ID and square up on pitches but slow bat speed and that has been the death of Ruiz.  Now Lile isn't Ruiz because he is fast.  There's a chance he could be Steven Kwan. There's a better chance he could be one of the dozens of guys who don't last though. Kwan is a unicorn. 

Andry Lara - The Nats pitching staff has a lot of "kids" A lot of guys like Cole Henry (26 on the ASG), Jose Ferrer (25), and Mitchell Parker (26 in September) who should be rounding into final form now (see : Gore, Mackenzie 26). Unfortunately for these guys and Lord (25), Rutledge (26), Brzykcy (25) instead they are still getting used to the majors and likely I'd say 5 out of 6 won't be any good. OK that was depressing but you know who IS a kid? Andry Lara. And he's looked good as a reliever in VERY VERY limited play. He gets hit but he induces grounders. Over time as a starter that's been iffy, you lose control you leave balls up... but for an inning as a reliever? So far, so good

 

Kids coming / coming back - 

Cade Cavalli - Has he looked good in AAA in 2025? Uh.... no. He's wild and not missing bats and well that's not a good combo. But he's going to get into the majors because at 27 in about a month it's time for him to produce or get out of the way. The Nats liked him before so they'll throw him into the fire. 

Robert Hassell - Does he seem like a AAA player? Yeah. But squint and you see a guy who struggles at a level, then gets better. He was pretty awful in the majors with nothing to excite you but his other skills are good so if he can be ok maybe there's a 4th or 5th OF here? His only issue is the OF is crowded. Harder to get a chance when Wood is needing reps to keep improving his D, and Crews needs to get back into it. (which is kind of why they gotta let Call go) 

 Marquis Grissom Jr.  - an intriguing relief arm that shouldn't be great (he doesn't blow anyone out at all) but is hard for batters to get a read on so they don't usually hit him very hard. Unfortunately Marquis doesn't have a great read on himself. When he controls his wildness has enough to hold down a major league role. We'll probably get a chance to see if he can do that in the fall

Yohandy Morales?  - Probably not as a DH/1B he's sort of squeezed currently in the majors, esp with all the OF needing to have a look. But he's in AAA and was beginning to heat up. If Bell goes then there's a spot open and he'll have his first swings in the majors. 

 

Various other not kids who might get cycled in based on timing. For starters - Seth Shuman, Chase Solesky, and Andrew Alvarez stink but are there in AAA. They probably get passed by Kyle Luckham though if he doesn't stink. Holden Powell is the closest to a kid in the pen. Konnor Pilkington is an interesting older lefty. Seems like a dozen could be late 20s guys. Batting there's a lot of chaff. Jackson Cluff maybe? Get the 28yo a couple major league at bats before sending him on his way?

What's gone wrong

Everything? 

Ha ha. No! Didn't you read the last post? There are some good and in the comments I mention the sort of neither good or bad (Garcia, Irvin, Parker, all the kids just getting their feet wet) 

But there are some bad things. You can't be 20 games under at the All-Star break on luck alone.  

 

Plan Ruiners

Keibert Ruiz had a hot start making optimistic Nats fans say "forget about the last few years! Maybe he was hurt!" Nope. He stinks! Always bad behind the plate, he hasn't gained power as he got older and he hasn't learned any patience. He's a slow slap hitter and has the stats to prove it. The Nats gambled on Ruiz after a decent couple of first seasons. They lost. And somehow back-up Riley Adams is worse as at least Ruiz's contact skills are something. Riley is just hoping to run into one and doesn't.

 Trevor Williams looked real good when healthy in 2024. I mean he was good! So the Nats signed him to a 2 year deal with the general thinking if he could be 80% of that by July they could flip him into something interesting. But 2024 looked like a fluke and 2025 proved it was. He's unmovable and signed for next year. The only bright side is there is a fair amount of luck here so him coming back next year to eat innings and pitch at the back of the rotation wouldn't be the worst. That's good! 

Reaching deeper into the FA garbage pile for Paul DeJong, Colin Poche, and Lucas Sims, Rizzo hoped to go beyond getting a deal into getting something for nothing. He got nothing for nothing as Poche and Sims were so bad they are already gone (and should have been earlier) and DeJong was only saved from the same fate by injury. No help for team or trades. 

Shinnosuke Ogasawara was supposed to be cheap rotation depth.  He hasn't shown an ability to hang in AAA let along the majors. At least if you burned the money you'd get some heat from it.  

 

Not what they hoped for  

Nathaniel Lowe was a cheap but sneaky good 1B who played good defense and hit well and the combo made him sort of a Top 10 1B (yeah 1B is historically weak - you still gotta play guys there!). But for the Nats in 2025 he's doing neither well and is basically the 1B this team should have. The good news is like Williams he'll be back and unlike with Williams, this year seems to be his fluke. So maybe next year. 

Jacob Young is an exciting and fast young fielder who had some exciting stretches at the plate last year. But in 2025 everything has gone wrong. He's hitting worse. He fielding worse. Hell, he's been caught stealing 9 times in 19 attempts. From possible starter to back to the minors.

Nasim Nunez was stashed on the major league roster all 2024 because you can do that if you are a bad team. All glove and no bat the hope was he could work his way to average at the plate and last year seemed to suggest that was possible. This year though he's hitting his way out of AAA.  

Jackson Rutledge, Zach Brzycky were two young names they were hoping to show something in the pen. Both have been bad. Edward Salazar, Ryan Loutos, and Jorge Lopez were all arms picked up with the hope something would click. It did not. 

 

In the macro 

While Parker and Irvin alone are basically hitting low expectations, together with Herz it was hoped one might continue to pitch like a middle of rotation guy. Nope. These two regressed and Herz got hurt.  

 

The short of this is the FA signings were pretty remarkably terrible this year. Not just missing but missing so bad with guys they were not getting out of AAA or being released before Memorial Day. This meant the team had no depth anywhere with the lineup, rotation, and pen all only 1-2-3 players deep. The Ruiz development is also really disappointing bc it's hard to find a good catcher, they actually committed to someone and it's just become a mess. At least the kids that didn't come through, weren't the kids you really care about. Some of the A-Team came through, the others are just getting their chances, the B-Team's failures are disappointing but they aren't long term issues, just issues for 2025 when you are mixing and matching what you have. 

 

What's gone right

With the team reeling there isn't much to say here but we generally start out with right so...   

Unqualified Successes

James Wood is a bonafide star. All-Star. HR Derby participant.  On pace for 40 homers, 100 RBIs, and 100 walks.  He strikes out a bit much and never developed the skills in the field you'd hope but at 22 he's one of the best bats in the game and likely to get even better. He's a build around player. 

MacKenzie Gore is an ace.  Maybe not a Skenes level but he'd be #1 on a number of teams.  He has matured and has figured out how to maintain a level of control that makes him that much better. A stud that you can build a rotation behind

Brad Lord made his way to the majors are looks to be a solid addition to the bullpen while Jose Ferrer has gotten over some early season bumps to also settle into a nice spot. Both at 25 and under control for years you can imagine them as pieces of a solid pen once the Nats commit to or find the couple shut down arms they need. 

Qualified Successes 

Kyle Finnegan has settled into that "he's the closer" role where he's not any better really than your other good relief arms but he has the job and does it well enough not to lose it. In the old days you could flip that for something but teams are smarter now. In the new days these guys are valuable because they let you use your truly good arms when you really need them. The Nats don't have truly good arms. So Kyle is really just another decent pen arm, which is fine, but circumstances mean it's not a big win. 

CJ Abrams' talent is getting more consistent.  Say what you will about his attitude (up and down apparently) and ability to play SS (only down) but he's a high energy electric player with 20+ HR power and the speed to steal 50+ bases if the Nats were so inclined. Also he's 24.  He's got a skill set you need to figure out how to control or flip for an arm.  

Alex Call continues to be a nice surprise. He's generally been a solid to good defender but the bat was a question.  While it's nothing to get excited about from a 30 year old who's not going to get better it's undeniably been good. He's a solid player you got for nothing and that's always a plus 

 Amed Rosario didn't suck, he was ok. He's sort of the bench guy good teams have, able to play a lot of positions (though not well) and hit fine. A good sub to have when a guy goes out for a couple weeks. Unfortunately that's not the team the Nats are but that's not Rosario's fault. 

Squint and you can see success

Mike Soroka was a gamble. When healthy he's perfectly decent holding down a back of the rotation spot.  It's a low bar but it's probably the first one you set out for this signing. 

 

Without an injury the Nats can walk out of 2026 with a build around bat an ace-level pitcher. Every team would want that. They've managed to check off some of the top 2 boxes in the checklist. The problem is the next 10 or so. 

Monday Quickie : ASG break

The Nats did not get better after the firings. The 1-5 run isn't anything off than expected, facing two good teams away from home 2-4 is the baseline with 1-5 and 3-3 happening almost as easy. This is not a good team, and it's still being run by Davey's guys so don't expect any miracles. 

The big thing that happened was the draft. I don't usually care much about the draft, but in the past the Nats having the #1 pick with generational talents has made me take a closer look at it. That was a long time ago. The Nats had the #1 pick again this year but with no clear Strasburg or Harper it was a big question mark on who to take.  Guys ranked by one group as #1 might be #7 elsewhere. 

The Nats went with Eli Willitis, son of a former major leaguer. He's a guy with no holes in his make-up and seems destined to make the majors, with the general thinking is a good bet to be a very solid top of the line-up type player. If things don't pan out then he might be a super-sub type, where as if he surprises he could be a star.  It's a "safe"* pick in a draft like this that featured no wow player. With the Nats eschewing from pitching it seemed like the other choice could have been Ethan Holliday (another major league scion) who had more top-end potential but also potential holes like a lack of projectible defensive skills and a tendency to swing and miss. 

Holliday seems like a Rizzo pick to me. Rizzo liked to take big swings in the draft, be it with raw talent (Brady House, Elijah Green), or injury concerns (Rendon, Giolito, Fedde)  or what have you. I never felt like this was a terrible idea. You only need to hit once every 5+ years to really impact your team. But it did leave the minors usually barren of the type of decent players that making more standard picks run into. And when he didn't hit that post-Rendon guy the Nats ended up with a organization with limited depth. That they went with Willitis feels like a change even if it was Rizzo's guy originally.  We will likely never know. 

This team needs this break to reset completely and figure out who they are. They should spend the next few weeks dumping guys with no future here (Finnegan, Bell, Williams, Call - won't get more than you can now, Rosario - ditto), either through lottery ticket trades or DFAs. Then just let the kids play. Then attack FA and the trade market in the off-season. 2025 has long been over. A competitive 2026 is the goal now. 

 

 

*as safe as any draft pick can be, mind you.  

Monday Not-Quickie : Firing on all cylinders

What's next? 

1) New guys take over... for now. 

Mike DeBartolo is the new GM.  He's young, with a business bent. He's been with the Nats a long time with a role in a lot of different aspects and he's familiar with analytics. Still I imagine with no baseball leadership experience and his history being the second guy on a team who just fired it's GM I assume he's a placeholder. 

Miguel Cairo, bench coach, is the likely choice for interim manager. 

What is on DeBartolo's plate is the draft. He's likely to have been involved and with the first pick the Nats have a pretty decent sense of the 1-3 guys they are looking at. The later rounds have never been good to Rizzo so DeBartolo can't do worse. 

Miguel's got to rally the team but after Davey's "don't blame the coaches" rant that may be easier done. Also compared to the effort they've put out so far even winning 3 out of every 7 would be an improvement. 

Don't expect a new coach in before the end of the year. There isn't really a point. But I'd like to see a new GM in as soon as possible. The draft might be a pass for them. The big focus is on early rounds and your position in the draft and your minor league system means a lot when you make those picks. Any other guy is looking at a different set of players than Rizzo would have been. But I do want the next GM to be here for the trade deadline to begin making the team his.  

Who would I like to take over? Assuming this team is going to be run cheap - you want someone from an org that understands how to win with limitations, Tampa, Cleveland, Milwaukee...

For manager?  If we're going with my heart, let Matty LeCroy take it.  I love that guy.   Also a heart choice but with more thought into it, Rick Sweet is a LONG time minor league manager with seemingly decent skills at mentoring young players.  Let him have his one shot at the majors with a bunch of kids that can make some noise. 

Hey if my "get Rick Short" out of the minors push worked 20 years ago, maybe it can work for all "Rick" five-letter last names that start with S and end with t? 

2)  Fallout.  

Rizzo hinted at some bad blood, probably wants one more shot, and we all think the ownership isn't... at it's best. What sort of hit jobs do we see on the Lerners, or on Rizzo the untouchable king, or on Davey no longer in a position of power? 

Also why now? Why both? What was the process? That usually does come out one way or another.  If you like drama we might see some

3) Does anything else change? 

Ownership could also be ready for a change. With Rizzo and Davey out that's a clean slate for a buyer and we know the Lerners broached selling the team earlier. Could they be up for doing it again? We generally think Mark wants to stay, the siblings and their hubbies want to sell, and no strong decisions can be made unless everyone agrees. If this is all true that's no way to run a franchise, one hamstrung sibling trying to hobble along. You can feel sorry for Mark in this situation a little bit, but by holding on to the team he's making things worse for it.  If you can't put money into it NOW you got to sell 

EMERGENCY FIRING POST 2

You all know how I feel.  Davey deserved to get fired as much as any manager who won a WS has, at least on performance.  His teams regularly underperformed expectations, including this year, and they regularly failed at the fundamentals, or at least it felt like it.  I won't rehash it anymore. You can go back and read what I said a few posts ago.  I think it's best for the Nats he's gone. 

Rizzo is more complicated.  As others have pointed out, Rizzo has a skill set; a steady hand, decent media presence (mainly because it's limited), a good read of other teams young talent, a savvy trader.  He also has some flaws; poor draft record, questionable FA eye on the fringes, a bit "my way or the highway" attitude with little sense of taking blame for team failures. It's a mixed bag, but one that lead to a 7-10 season run of relevance and a season in 2025 where three of the hottest young players all reside on his team. You can not like him, you can say his skill set doesn't quite work for the way this team might be run going forward, but you can't say he's bad.  

But even his quote suggests - "Hey not my fault" which it certainly partly is.  We mentioned the swings and misses in the drafts, allowing Davey and his calvacade of subpar coaches to stay here as long as they did, this year's decision to get a full house of other people's trash and missing on them so very badly that three relievers were gone before Memorial Day. If he really can't see that - he has to go. 

Usually ownership groups give GMs the chance to move on from managers before forcing them out. That Rizzo was gone too is interesting.  Did Rizzo ride or die with Davey?  He seemed to really like him and work well with him. 

What happens next will be everything because this is a team with some great young pieces that needs to spend in the off-season. If they do the person making those decisions will be of paramount importance and the person leading the team will matter too.  

EMERGENCY FIRING POST

DAVEY OUT! 

RIZZO OUT!

The Post if you have it

What was the final straw? You'd have to assume the lifeless play in the past month+  9-23 since the end of May.  The team looks bad. The feeling around the team is bad. 

More tomorrow later tonight.  Too much to wait until tomorrow but you know I got kids stuff to do right now

Ed Note- internet down and my cell reception at my house is spotty so nothing more tonight  

Ed Note 2 - It's back! 

went on vacation

Like the Nats in general  

 They are now nearly what I feared they'd be last post.  Worst of the rest. Only the Athletics are standing in their way.  They are clearly behind the Marlins now. Hell so are the Braves. 

Things have gotten so bad the team is trying to get you excited for the idea of Paul DeJong coming back and DHing even though he can't hit. 

What the hell are we doing here people? 

 

Kick anyone over 27 to the curb.  Just play kids.  See where you end up. Spend a bunch of money in the off-season. That's where we are.  

 

 

Monday Quickie - closing in

 on the worst "trying" team in baseball

The Rockies, despite sweeping the Nats, are historically bad.  They are on pace for 37 wins.  There literally should be calls from the game to replace the owner because things are so non-competitive in Denver. 

The White Sox are in a similar spot, Reinsdorf aging into a worse version of himself as owner often do stuck with a "back in my day we didn't pay players so much" mentality, trying to squeeze every last dollar from the team for years leading to another terrible team in 2025. This is a cycle and this year the WHite Sox are the one at the nadir, on the path for the low 50s in wins. However, they are finally in the process of being sold

The other teams down here are of a similar bent. The Pirates, Athletics, and Marlins are all infamous for not really trying. Instead trying to be "Tampa Bay Lite" investing in the minors enough to hope to cobble together a decent 1-2 year squad that pushes .500 and a Wild Card a couple times a decade.  Maybe every couple decades have things line up right for a brief window of actual contention.  The Orioles, recently sold, look to be adding their name to this list, squandering a decent base of youth. And the Royals probably belong in this group, but are having that cobbled together squad couple years that we just talked about.  (I do think they push a bit more than the others when things line up) 

So it's down here, with the likes of these teams that the Nats sit. And its not because of a run of terrible luck (Hey Braves!) or a that this is the low point in a rebuilding process, that was a couple years ago. No it's earned and deserved. The Nats are a team with all the hallmarks of not trying. It is what we noted going into this year. This was the year to start trying. They did not. That's a warning sign. 

Luckily for the Nats fans they don't have a history of doing this. So maybe it's not actually happening. Maybe the Nats aren't becoming a team like those noted above.  Maybe it's just a one year blip, trying to get timing right. Maybe. 

 But it's hard to get hopes up when you know at least part of the ownership group wants out. And it's hard to get hopes up when having the 3rd lowest winning percentage of all active managers while constantly throwing your team under the bus, can't get a manager fired. And it's hard when you have a guy turning into an ace and a budding superstar on your team and you don't hear a peep about long-term signings. 

 I still say it's a low-mid 70s win team, I still say they catch a run. I still say hold out hope for this off-season.  What can I say, I'm an eternal optimist. But I don't blame you if you don't. 

Update : Fire Davey Quicker

And Fire Rizzo. 

And Sell the Team  

 

Look I've been an advocate for Rizzo, who can deal with the best of them, and is perfectly acceptable at IDing long range contract targets (some bomb, some work out - that's just how it goes). But sticking by Davey here isn't about results or Davey's proven track record with kids (which doesn't exist), it's about keeping a guy who doesn't complain about the roster at all and works quietly with whatever he's given.  Rizzo bombed in his FA acquisitions this off-season but Davey won't complain. Nor will he eat the blame. That's the trade off. 

As for the Lerners. I think Ted wanted to win, and fought through his more.. penurious tendencies (remember the "wait you want to Fed Ex this stuff?") to pay for an expensive team.  I think Mark wants to win but Mark isn't solo in charge. It's Mark and siblings who are more inclined to sell than win. Without the backing of an owner who will spend you are completely at the whim of timing on getting a window open for a brief period of time (see Pirates, Pittsburgh).  That's no way for a team to be run, hitting 3 year windows every generation. 

 

This offseason will either cement these feelings or prove them wrong, but they aren't things I've said before and I don't mean them lightly. Fix what's broken or stop being in charge.  

Monday Quickie - Fire Davey

Fire Davey.  

The man can't help but blame the players and I don't want that type of guy leading this team.  Maybe a veteran team can ignore him or maybe he wouldn't dare anger those guys, but this isn't a veteran team. It's a team of kids and they need someone to support and shield them.  

There are numerous reasons to fire the guy. His behavior this weekend pushes that all aside to get to number 1. Even if you landed on "well he won the series and changing the manager doesn't really matter" I don't see how you can still want to keep the guy. 

Slow fade

 Are we talking about this blog or the Nats? Hey yo! 

After the nice run that ended with a sweep of Arizona the Nats have played, as we've gone over before, like you'd expect a 75 win team to play.  Competitive enough that you would be surprised at them being swept in two straight series. Not good enough that you'd really expect them to win two straight series against better teams. 

And there are a fair number of better teams.  The dregs of the NL remain the dregs, the Rockies, Marlins, and Pirates playing their own game on how to not even try. The Nats are clearly better than that but only Atlanta stands below them and that's because the Braves are on one of the craziest runs of bad luck you'll ever see*. The Nats are not bad, but they are at least a half-step behind 3/4 of the rest of the National League, honestly a half-step behind 75% of baseball after you throw the not trying White Sox, Athletics, and new to the group Orioles, in there. 

Outside of Alex Call no one is hot right now and when Wood is putting up a .095 / .174 / .095 line in the past couple weeks you know the offense is grinding to a halt.  

I'll say I see 3 interesting things going on though

1) Gore is solidifying into that ace. We've brought it up occasionally but watching him last night the guy is in a zone and when he's there he's unhittable and that my friend, is an ace.  For Nats fans that means a real fun 6 innings of baseball watching every 5 games. It also means OH MY GOD THEY NEED TO SIGN HIM LONG TERM.  These type of guys don't come around often. You need these types. You can replace a bat somewhat but an arm? You have to gamble on them when you have the opportunity. I don't see a winning Nats team in 3 years without this guy

 2) The bullpen, free of the terrible signings and decisions to open the year, is getting better. Yes, that's funny to after another bullpen loss but Ferrer gave up hits to Soto and Alonso - two of the better hitters in the game. It happens. Henry got beat in extras but the game is designed now for a run to score. In the past two weeks these guys have pitched much better and actually haven't been the main reason the Nats have lost anymore

 3) Soroka threw a really good game. 7 Ks, 2 hits, no homers.  The guy is here to be traded. If he can come around SP is such in need he will fetch something mildly interesting. 

Sadly with the recent slide we're back to making our own stories from the team.  There is one last chance for that to change though. 7 games against MIA and COL at home coming up.  Say split the next two vs the Mets and go 6-1 in those 7 and end up 36-38 into the West Coast swing?  One last run at trying to be interesting? Do you have it in you boys? 

 

*they recently lost 5 1-run games in a row and have lost their last 12 1 or 2 run games.  

These kids aren't alright

This doesn't have anything to do with the Cubs series. 1 of 3 from the Cubs is what should be expected and seeing Gore look like an ace again is great. However, we are in the "stats are real now" part of the season and last time we looked at the kids whose stats said real good things about them. CJ Abrams continues to be cool but I noted his propensity for extended cold streaks was keeping him from being special. That's not the point, he's still overall good. The only one with a real issue out of that group was Jackson Rutledge. I mentioned he could fall back and he really has. Still he's not young but he IS new to relief pitching.  He's still learning. We'll see. 

So while there are kids who look good this year there are others who do not. 

 

Keibert Ruiz has been in free fall since a hot start. While there was hope from some on here than his general lack of hitting was due to previous injury and now that he's healthy he would go back to being decent that hasn't been the case.  He remains extremely good at squaring up and meeting pitches. This lets him maintain one of the lowest strikeout rates in the game.  Unfortunately he's bad at picking which pitches to try to hit (Chase rate is high), he's bad at generating any sort of power (exit velocity, etc. is very low), he doesn't get the ball up enough (launch angle too low), and he's super slow so he's not going to leg anything out. He also doesn't identify pitches well (as noted by that chase rate) so his walk rate is very low.  You can sort of take a bad hitting catcher if they can field but Ruiz is generally considered a poor defensive catcher (though one with an ok arm).  We're getting very close to having to accept that despite the contract Ruiz is neither the catcher of the future or the catcher of now. 

 

Fleet of foot Jacob Young make Keibert look like James Wood when it comes to power. One of the weakest bats in baseball who gets nothing up in the air, I'm sure this combination worked for him all through his career so far. He could leg out enough hits and play stellar defense. But the margins on that working get slimmer and slimmer and the body gets slower and slower and Jacob is rapidly approaching a point where he has to do something better to stick around.  It could be that he walks a bit better. Never really his strong suit but he is a little better this year and he doesn't chase. Maybe if he does that he can set himself up as a 5th OF. That would be a disappointment given the Nats hopes when he rose up the minors at a decent clip but honestly it would be a win given his draft position. He was never a prospect. 

 

Speaking of OFs despite the assurances of the rabble in the comments (rabble I said!) Dylan Crews's too early actual stats meant more than his too early fancy stats, and he's seen his performance level out while his fancy stats drop to meet what he is doing. He strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough in general and his fielding, which was supposed to be stellar, has simply been adequate so far. I don't come here to bury Crewsar though. He immediately improved his walk rate after a dreadful start and before his injury was beginning to generate more power. The fancy stats, now like all stats more real with a third of a season down, suggest unlike Ruiz and Young, the guy can swing a bat. He doesn't chase and he can really nail it when he gets it right. He just doesn't do it often enough yet. It does seem like it's a matter of time before he's a productive major leaguer. From there we can discuss what that means, but we gotta get there first and to do that he's gotta get back from injury. Why is he in the "aren't alright" section? He's alright to me! Well because this isn't what anyone was hoping for the guy when drafted. You wanted an impact star ASAP and he's simply not that. Reset expectations from 10 to 8 and see where he goes and we'll all be fine* 

 

This isn't bad for a split of what kids are working and what aren't, especially when you consider only Ruiz is really crashing out. Young is merely not overperforming like hoped, and Crews is just not an immediate ROY candidate. Both of these guys can still be valuable, even very valuable in Crews' case, hitting below the high targets that had been set. 

There is a base, we all can see it. It could be an actual foundation with guys like Garcia and Ferrer being ok and more kids on the way. But what the FAs are doing is killing the team and they are going to need some good FA signings to put this team over the top.  

*You're going to yell at me again, aren't you?  

 

Monday Quickie : Hey hey!

 I'm thankful for a lot but I'm very thankful today that the Nats team is winning in strong fashion and not sneaking out close wins because if there's one thing that I hate (and as you can probably tell there are many) it's the trite re-use of the "Cardiac" nickname for any team of young players (Cardiac Kids!) or whose name slightly allows it because of a similar sound (CardiAc NAts!). That isn't happening here. I can breathe. 

 I'm also thankful for a great weekend of Nats baseball to liven up the season that had a chance to go very moribund. It actually pushed them to a nice little 10-3 run and relevance? Not quite. But another one of those from relevance! 

The recent push has been helped along not by James Wood being a stud (look the guy is a star at the plate and it's time we just start talking like he is as opposed to some young player than might be something). Josh Bell and Luis Garcia starting to hit again... and enough timely hitting to score the runs needed to back up the pitching. 

Gore had a couple of ace like performances and the pen 2.0. Brad Lord, Cole Henry, Jose Ferrer until his arm breaks are doing very well.  

When can you get "excited"? Let's set our sights on June 13th.  The Nats will be past the tough stretch and looking at 7 games against the Marlins and Rockies. I know the Nats have been kind of up against the good, down against the bad, but the Rockies are so bad that supercedes that. Just look at the last 3 game set. The Nats were the closest the Rockies came to winning a series, winning one and losing two 1-run games but they still didn't do it.

We talked about not getting too low before, nor should you get too high.  I still think this is a 75 win team. But seasons where you can pretend it's more, where you flirt with being meaningful before a late fall, are more fun that seasons when you can't. Nats are almost there. It's almost fun, you know in a "not the usual fun of just watching baseball fun" A couple more good weeks would do it. 

These kids are allright

It's Review the Team Memorial Day Week (tm)(r) (c) and after 53 games (1 game under 1/3 of the season) there are bright spots in the Nats "Still rebuilding?" season. 

James Wood has got to be first and foremost.  We won't reiterate every point we've made so far this year about the budding superstar but he's gotten a tiny bit less selective in order to smash the ball more and that has worked out well. Not that he was ever too selective. He grips and rips. But he also has a good sense of the strike zone so he grips and rips at pitches he can usually hit. If pitchers beat him, good for them, but they are going to have to do just that. 

He still could get better. I don't think it has to do with plate approach. This is working for him. However if he could hit a few fewer ground balls (52.8%) we're talking more screeching line drives and balls over the fence.  The BA might drop a little, or honestly it might not, but if it does the trade off in extra XBHs would likely be worth it. 

He still needs to field better or the Nats need to look at him as a DH. Let's not make the Soto mistake again trying to convince ourselves someone bad is ok out there because they are young. Yes, Wood is more athletic, truly fast, but he's not a good fielder. Being strong doesn't make you a good hitter. Its skills and he doesn't have it at this level. I mean keep him out there if he wants to be. The hits matter more. But if he's agreeable to it, it's probably the right idea. 

We recently talked about CJ Abrams but he's improved every year he's been in the majors across two teams and he's hitting his stride now with a stretch to start the year as good as any that he has put up. He has cooled down in the past week so he didn't get to "best stretch ever" but if this isn't the introduction to a cold stretch he's going to end up with his best season ever. Like Wood he's swinging harder and it's paying off, though unlike Wood he's not every selective and that probably will keep him a step behind Wood as maybe a star but not a superstar. I suppose he could learn that once he sustains strong hitting without going into long droughts. 

Fielding wise Abrams is like Wood in that he stinks and probably shouldn't be playing his position. Unlike Wood though DH doesn't feel right for him. His arm is fine for 3B but his reaction time is slow.  If it wasn't his speed would be making him have elite range instead of terrible range. This has been very consistent over his career. You have to keep his bat and legs in the line-up so... second base in his future?  

 

It's early in both the transition and season to judge a relief pitcher but Cole Henry seems to have taken to the role like a fish to water. If not for one horrendous outing against the Mets he'd be sporting a 0.00 ERA. He's not the traditional reliever though blowing guys away or getting them to jam the ball into the ground. No, he's a flyball guy but guys at the plate don't read his stuff well and can't hit him hard. It's not necessarily the standard recipe for success so the fancy stats don't love him but until he stops inducing that type of contact you kind of gotta assume he can keep it up. Given he's not stressing his arm trying to throw 100MPH screwballs if he simply keeps up what he's doing it seems like he could have a long successful career in the pen. 

In a similar but lesser vein Jackson Rutledge has done well converting to the pen as well. He's more in line with the throwing smoke get grounders reliever types though not quite fast enough while still being prone to fits of wildness. There's room for improvement but he's under 20 games into his relief career on any level. Chances are he can improve a bit and he's already sitting at a level that would be a good pen piece. The fancy stats don't love him and given his limited time here he's probably more likely for a fallback but why not be optimistic? Like I said he can get better.

 

Mackenzie Gore should be great. He really should be. He's leading the league in K/9 right now, and has perfectly reasonable number for hits, homers, and walks. Everything is showing a marked improvement from last year.  And yes he is better but he should still be even better than what he's showing and should be showing even more improvement.  What's up? It seems like batters don't usually hit Gore but when they do they REALLY do. Mostly they can't hit his pitches but when they can they can easily squared up. That seems to suggest his mistakes are big ones. The bad curves don't miss they hang. The bad fastballs aren't off the plate they are meatballs. If he can fix that and he's an ace. But all this complaining is about a guy who's a 1/2 right now and that's good! 

Jake Irvin is fine.  I know we want more and the ERA sort of suggests more but he's a 4.25-4.50 ERA pitcher and you know what? That's ok.  He has good control of the strike zone, and controls the running game so the hits and homers he will give up, and he will, aren't game losing. Sit at the back of the rotation for the next 2-3 years and let the Nats not worry about one spot. Who can complain about that? 

Mitchell Parker is basically Jake Irvin, with a couple big exceptions.  First he seems to have a skill in keeping the ball in the park. I can hazard to guess it's mostly because he's left-handed. All the things that make Irvin ok - a couple pitches that look the same and a great extension giving the batter a few micro-seconds fewer to react - Parker has something similar but you see a lot fewer LHP. Given that, the batters have a slightly more difficult time reading Parker, swing at more pitches out of the zone and hit more balls to the opposite field. This doesn't really limit hits but homers are about hitting the right pitch perfectly and it just seems harder to do that against Mitchell.  The other thing would be he's 2 1/2 years younger and while Jake is Jake, Mitchell could get better. I'm not sold that he will but he could. If he doesn't, he should join Jake in the back of the rotation for several years and maybe you don't need two of those types in theory but in practice the more rotation worthy pitchers you have the better. 

Monday Quickie

 After a sweep (two games but still counts!) of Atlanta the Nats hosted SF and lost 2 of 3 with a fairly anemic offensive output. Now they face a fairly daunting stretch, traveling cross-country to take on AL West leading Seattle and the NL Wild Card hopeful Arizona Diamondbacks, then back home for a series against the Cubs.  It's Memorial Day week so things are now "real" and getting 4 wins here would be great for a team hoping to scrape .500. A 1-2 win blow-out would basically make it a claw-back summer.  (so as usual expect the 3 wins) 

Tomorrow we'll start going over the 1/3 of the season situation now that guys like Mitchell Parker have returned to Earth and James Wood has not

In the meantime Read Rosenthal's fairly scathing take on the Nats. "Good teams both spend and develop. The Nationals do neither" Ouch!

Rosenthal: Nationals remain among MLB’s bottom feeders despite lengthy rebuild - The Athletic

Darkest before the dawn

 But it's also really dark pretty much an hour after sunset so who really knows.

 The point is : Winning Streak!  

The Nats crushed the Orioles, coming back late on Friday and winning back to back games that were almost over before the 3rd inning began. Last night they continued the hot starts, scoring 4 runs before getting out of the second. This little run has taken them from the "oh uh are they among the worst non Colorado teams in baseball?" back to "this is who we thought they'd be" and a 72 win pace. As we are nearing Memorial Day weekend and the usual "OK NOW let's seriously look at these guys" I think this should be the general consensus on how to look at the season. Ups and downs will happen. It's a 70-75 win team. I'll be genuinely surprised at anything else through the trade deadline (after that rosters and targets can change) 

If you are a Nats fan - basically the last 7 days were what you wanted to see. Abrams and Wood leading the team with great lines across 6 games. Crews knocking a couple out of the park while not striking out at all the last two games. Jacob Young going 3 for 8 in limited time.  Luis Garcia doing ok.  It was a good week for the young core.  Let's hope Crews MRI isn't serious but the kid is young without much injury history so I'm cautiously optimistic there.

We mentioned CJ Abrams a couple posts ago and it's worth going back to him because this guy was meant to be a star, a Top 10 prospect in all of baseball two years in a row. These things are not guaranteed, but when you've managed to corral three of them onto your team at the same time chances of you going 0-3 has gotta be very slim. It could be that Abrams is just having an extended hot streak but it's just as hot as anything he had going last year.  He had a 36 game run of .309 / .401 / .561 centered around June, he's at .313 / .371 / .569.  Another week like this and he'll put that 2024 streak behind him. Abrams did start his career in a worse spot than people thought but every year Abrams has improved. This could be the "put it together" year.  

The Soto trade will work out for the Nats in numbers but then it was always going to do that. Nearly every trade of a vet for kids gives you generally more value.  The pure numbers guys love to talk about that even though really would you want 5 kids giving you 13 WAR over 5 seasons or one guy giving you 10 over 2+?  I hope you understand the latter is more conducive to, you know, winning stuff. 

BUT the Soto trade may actually just work out period. Wood looks to be a star. Right there it's almost a push. Abrams being a star too? Hard to not say it's a win, even if it took a couple years. Gore flirting with being an ace? Ok now it's a clear win. Jarlin Susana given he's just 21, remains a Nats top pitching prospect. He's hanging in in AA which is a perfectly fine place for him to be. And that brings us to the last piece*, Robert Hassell.

With Crews going down the Nats are bringing up Hassell from AAA. Hassell's journey has been kind of a long one.  He was seen as a very strong prospect, dominating A-ball at age 19, but hurt his hand in 2022 and has been trying to play through his return to the game.  2023 was dismal but 2024 showed signs of life and with the space available in AAA Hassell has gotten his chance there.  The results are... mixed. Overall he's hitting ok, but not walking enough and his power is pretty moderate.  His May overall has been very good but that was more a scorching opening week than a sustained performance. It's likely he won't perform in the majors but he's not here to do that. He's here to get a taste. 

The overall point though with these kids coming into form is the Nats have to do something to support this round.  It isn't as strong as the 2011ish time frame where generational picks, kids, and slow starters all lined up perfectly. This is just kids and mostly just bats. Where's their Gio? Where's their Werth? The Nats did set up some pieces for success. This past off-season was the time to strike. This next off-season will be late but better late than never. 

*well technically Luke Voit was that 

Weekend Goals

 Clearly the run to near .500 didn't work out. Instead they went 1-5 vs Cleveland and St. Louis and followed that up with a 1-3 set versus Atlanta. Now they are facing Baltimore - the last bad team they'll play until the middle of June.  

For all the small victories the Nats can have I do think a series win against Baltimore ranks up there.  "We might be bad, but we're not YOU guys" The good news is even a 1-2 series loss puts the teams at even for the season.  So just don't get swept. That isn't too much to ask.

Keep pounding

 Davey inherted a team that went 95 and 97 and in the next three season with mostly the same roster went 82-80!!!!, 93-69, and 26-34!!!!. With an admittedly slightly worse roster went... 65-97!!!! Still with maybe the best hitter in baseball the year after went 55-107!!!!

 

Arguably unestablished somewhat raised in the org Nats with significant playing time that left at 29 or younger :

• Victor Robles, dog house guy for Davey, finally left at 27.  Went to Seattle and hit like a star for half a season. 
• Michael A Taylor flourished under Dusty, immediately back-tracked under Davey, traded away and showed another solid couple years left in him. 
• Joe Ross had the worst two seasons of his career under Davey before a decent one in 2021.  in 2024, his first healthy season after leaving had a better season than ever under Davey'
• Erick Fedde, did come together under Davey... and then lost it again.  Better seasons in 2024 and 2025 than ever under Davey
• Austin Voth started hot under Davey but degraded to the point of almost being out of the game.  A credible starter in Baltimore and reliever in Seattle since.
• Wilmer Difo, WILMER DIFO, decent cup of coffee under Dusty, got worse under Dusty but even more so under Davey to the point he was almost out of baseball. Went to Pittsburgh  PITTSBURGH and had an average year.

On the flip side... you have to stretch and say maybe Andrew Stevenson and Tres Barrera were guys that got a real shot here that didn't do any better elsewhere. Maybe Tanner Rainey though he's only 3 appearances into 2025.  

 You want me to say something nice?  Well if you want to say Soto is Daveys then maybe he is the right manager for an amazing HOF level talent young player. Wood seems to be doing just fine. Gore we can argue about if he's reaching his potential, but is certainly better, so far this year. Maybe him and Mitchell Parker vibe? 

But Abrams, a high quality player has been streaky and already had one beef with the manager. Luis Garcia Jr seems to have a similar hot cold performance matched up with a just cold relationship. Crews, we can at least agree he's struggling, right? I'm not going to get called out as a Crews hater for noting a guy hitting .181 / .239 / .313 a quarter into the season is struggling, am I? 

 

The guy keeps failing. Dusty, original Davey, and even Matt Williams didn't fail like this. Frank Robinson has a better winning percentage with the Nats. Hell Jim Riggleman has a better winning percentage with the Nats. 

Maybe it IS the roster.  Hell I'll agree and say it's gotta mostly be the roster.  I don't think Davey on the Dodgers makes them a .500 team. But what is here that makes you think he needs to stay because this record, this history says he has to go. 

But hey, I'll meet you half-way.  In conceding most managers are generally fine, we can fire Davey but we can hire back Manny Acta for you.

FIX THE PEN

 Or honestly fix Davey. 

From last night's post-game presser Davey trotted out the old very thoroughly debunked idea that you don't use your closer on the road in the 9th in a tie game. The idea is "well what if you need a save later?" which completely ignores the reality that you need to get to the point you need a save. YOU CAN'T SAVE A GAME YOU ALREADY LOST! The math all works out - you want to constantly put your best pitcher out there if you can.  Obviously rest and match-ups all come into consideration but that's the basic truth.  

There are good arguments that managers have a limited effect and it's hard to judge good vs bad when it's the roster construction that matters most in baseball. It's far less a place where a good coach can "take his'un and beat your'un and take your'un and beat his'un"  That being said, if all that we can do is take a look at the record and judge on vibes, I ask : when have the vibes around this team been any good since 2019? Maybe last year they were passable? 

The old school policing. The general lack of ever taking blame? Are we just waiting around to hope the mix  of players hits right again, and Rizzo limits him bullpen options again, so that he can maybe get a team back to the promised land. 

 I know winning percentage is a bad stat to use but also "lowest winning percentage of a manager to win a World Series" has to account for something. "Every single one of those ones with better winning percentages must have just had better teams" doesn't follow, at least to me. 

And if winning percentage doesn't matter why does winning a series? That's mostly the team, right? Like you have to pick a side and either say these things matter just a little and the last 5+ seasons are telling one story or these things don't matter at all and who cares who manages and in that case just fire the guy. 

The way I see it the only arguments for keeping him are "who cares?" or a carefully constructed house of cards where winning the Series 6 years ago counts more today than the 5 seasons that followed because of reasons and we also have to generally ignore half of that season and various questionable strategic decisions and the fact he seemed to be given a purposely limited roster in order to quell his worst impulses and all the obvious luck it takes to win short series?  

Go ahead make your arguments if they aren't these.  I'd love to hear them. I was done with this guy after 2022. Nothing since has proven me wrong. Maybe you have the secret argument.