Just because I don't really care about who gets in or not, doesn't mean I can't enjoy the process in my own way. It's like betting on the Olympics or something.
A few years ago I wrote about why I thought people get into the Hall or not. Now of course, there's a new level in there. Don't be tainted by steroids. Using my PHD in armchair psychology, let's figure out who will get in and when.
Maddux (undenaibly great), Biggio (undeniably great for his position, hit magic numbers), Glavine (hit magic numbers and honestly close to undeniably great - just bad in comparison to other guys coming up. Schilling and Mussina can say the same but didn't hit magic numbers)
Johnson (undeniable), Pedro (undeniable - though short career, you'll hear a lot of Koufax talk here because there is little old baseball guys like more than to talk about Koufax), Thomas (hit magic numbers)
Ed Note - cass is probably right Thomas this year. Which I think means Biggio next. So not even a half-hour and I'm totally admitting failure. New record for me.
Griffey (undeniable), Schilling (great at right times, remembered for something great)
Piazza and Bagwell (undeniably great but TAINTED because Bagwell never said he didn't and a reporter once said he saw back acne on Piazza - this wait is their punishment)
Chipper (undeniable), Pudge Rodriguez (undeniable for position)
2017 is the hardest year to read. Assuming Griffey goes first year and Pedro in first two then the best "non-tainted" guys left number wise are Mussina, Schilling, and Bagwell by a large margin, and Piazza is still the best hitting catcher of all time. So I figure this is the year they let go of the hate for the guys with nothing on them. If not, Mussina could get in this year or Smoltz if they like him. Walker, Raines or Edgar have shots too if voting is generous prior to this year and the players above are mostly cleared out.
2019 figures to have just Rivera, so it's another chance for someone. Also for both the steroid guys and the fringe guys, if Jeter and Suzuki retire this year there should be a serious lull for a few years starting in 2021. Here are the other WAR leaders active, non-tainted age 36 or up (so you could see retire in the next couple years). Carlos Beltran (though he'd have to not finish out his contract), Tim Hudson, Lance Berkman, Torii Hunter. I think I can stop except I'll throw out that Ortiz is 37. He should be tainted but everyone likes him so they generally choose to forget about his issues. I'm not seeing slam dunks. Then maybe around 2024-5 or so you'll get some stonger candidates again. Beltre, Utley, Pujols, Lee maybe.
You could see the Rice/Dawson effect where someone has to be elected just because. Halladay should make it in during this period. So hang on Raines, Edgar, etc. Hang on.
Morris does not get in. I don't know who out there is left to convince that wouldn't have voted for him last year.
If Frank Thomas doesn't make it in in 2015 I think he gets caught in a quagmire of "Why exactly is he better than Larry Walker" which could delay his entry for a few years because no one thinks Larry Walker is a hall of famer (though he has a strong case)
Mussina will get in but slowly, definitely after Schilling, I'll just guess 2019 for the hell of it. I think when they start seriously looking at Halladay, Mussina will start to look really good in comparison for his career.
I'm guessing quick on Pudge but in my estimation sportswriters really think highly of the guy as a player.
Smoltz will get in, perhaps as soon as 2017 but I'm guessing Schilling will have to go in first then couple years to sort out their feeling on John who took a good 5 years to really get going in his career.
Very interested in the Kent vote this year and next. No idea how to place this guy.