Well let that be a lesson to every other manager. While personally I still think something was up (even an "old school" saves-crazy manager brings out Britton after Duensing, and certainly after Jimenez gives up two hits) the fact remains you should never lose a game with your best arm on the bench. Let Dusty pay attention and may this not happen to the Nats.
Mets Giants tonight. Should be a tight low-scoring affair, but then again, everyone thought the Orioles/Jays could be a slugfest.
The next two days we'll spend previewing the series (no surprise - Max is G1, roster not set yet) how about we spend today distracting ourselves with some other stuff?
Can Dusty make the HOF as a manager?
He wants to. Now of course there are African-American managers in the Hall of Fame, but they were elected as players. You could argue Frank, as the first and a credible one, might have gone in anyway but that's hypothetical. Dusty didn't go in as a player. Could he go in as a manager? The Post focuses on wins but let's look at it 3 ways and see how Dusty stacks up.
1) Titles & Post-Season Performance. There is a clear line you can cross here to get into the Hall. Win 3 or more titles and you are in (Bochy is only one who isn't and he will be). There's also a clear line you need to cross to have a chance to get in. Win 1 or you're done. Only one post-war manager (we're talking 70 years now) has made it into the Hall without winning a title, Al Lopez. He did make the WS twice, losing both times. That may not seem impressive but here's the rub. From 1949 through 1964 the Yankees made the series 14 out of 16 times. The other two were Lopez, managing two different teams. He would actually finish 2nd to the Yankees NINE times. I'm sure there is a bit of understanding there on why he may not have won more titles
So where's Dusty at? Zero titles. 1 pennant. a .422 post season winning percentage which is on the low side. There's nothing here that would make Dusty a HOFer
2) Winning Percentage. Well what about if he just won a lot. Our new friend Al Lopez had a winning percentage of .584. That's 9th best all time. 8th if you set say... 1000 games as a base for consideration (that's about 6 1/2 old 154 game seasons). Using 1000 games as the limit 13 of the top 12 guys are in. The one guy who isn't is Jim Mutrie a guy who managed his last game in 1891. Matheny is a season away from qualifying. Then it's Davey at .562.
Where is Dusty? Down at .529. Some active coaches with better percentages over more than a few seasons - Francona, Maddon, Mattingly, Scioscia, Girardi... It's not a bad percentage (78th all time) but it's not great either. Basically it doesn't get him in, but it doesn't disqualify him either. It can do that you know - like for multiple WS managers like Cito Gaston's .519 or Tom Kelly's abysmal .478.*
So what does Dusty have going for him?
3) Wins. Dusty is currently 17th and given another year will likely pass two more to get to 15th. The top 11 in total wins are all in. Most are really good and have winning percentages to go with it. The ones that don't are Connie Mack, who managed an insane amount of games; Bucky Harris, a lifetime baseball guy who managed the Senators to a title as player-manager when he was 27 and broke the Red Sox color line when he took over for Cronin at GM; and Casey Stengel , who did win 7 championships.
But it's dicey in this area. You can understand why Mauch (.483 WP%, no pennants) isn't in, but then you have Piniella (.517, 1 pennant, 1 WS), Leyland (.506, 3, 1), Houk (.514, 3, 2) who aren't in. Dusty will have them on wins and winning percentage** but they are winning managers and with no titles can Dusty beat them in the comparison game?
What I think it comes down to is this - Dusty can win a World Series. That would probably be enough given his wins and winning percentage combination. Failing that he can manage three more seasons and get over 2000 wins (ave 78 wins per year would do it) putting him clearly ahead of these others.
The Nats have MOY, ROY, MVP, and CY Young candidates. How crazy is that?
How crazy is that indeed? I wanted to look at this and I wanted to look at it a specific way. First I was going to cut out MOY from the discussion, to make searching easier. Likely if you have a ROY, MVP, and CY candidates you are going to get some MOY votes. Also these need to be distinct awards, so a team like the 2016 Dodgers where Corey Seager is their ROY and MVP candidate, don't count.
So I went back to 1956 when the Cy Young award started (or else I'd have to pour over every player to decide who might have gotten votes) and I looked for any team that had a top 3 vote getter in each award. On one hand that may be too reductive - a 4th place MVP guy could be a deserving MVP who got jilted. Then again, if you only got 4th place, were you really a candidate? We're not asking about top players, we're asking about potential award winners. It's different. A lot of good players on bad teams won't win the MVP and that's just the way it is.
A few other points the Cy Young wasn't separate until 1967 so the odds were a
lot tougher at the start to get a guy in there. Also the voting was just one vote for Cy Young
until 1970 and ROY until 1980. That again makes it tougher because you didn't
have 2nd or 3rd place guys in obvious years.
OK so what did I find.
1965 Dodgers - Koufax (1st CY), Jim Lefebvre (1st ROY), Maury Willis (3rd MVP) : ROY should have went to Morgan. Koufax actually outpaced Willis for MVP finishing 2nd to Mays
1967 Red Sox - Yaz (1st MVP), Jim Lonborg (1st CY), Reggie Smith (2nd ROY) : Lucky to be here as Carew got 19 of 20 ROY votes.
1971 Oakland - Blue (1st CY), Angel Mangual (3rd ROY), Bando (2nd MVP) : Again the MVP candidate was outpaced by the Cy Young - Blue won MVP.
getting tired of looking...
1973 San Fran - Gary Matthews (1st ROY), Ron Bryant (3rd CY), Bobby Bonds (3rd MVP).
1974 Texas - Hargrove (1st ROY), Jenkins (2nd CY), Jeff Burroughs (1st MVP)
1978 Brewers - Larry Hisle (3rd MVP), Mike Caldwell (2nd CY), Molitor (2nd ROY)
1980 Phillies - Schmidt (1st MVP), Carlton (1st CY), Lonnie Smith (3rd ROY)
1983 Baltimore - Ripken, Palmer, Murray &
1983 St Louis - Lonnie Smith, Sutter, McGee
at this point I started going backward thinking maybe with more teams that would make a difference and I wouldn't be seeing one every 3 years or so.
2013 Cardinals - Molina, Wainwright,Shelby Miller
2010 Cardinals - Pujols, Wainwright, Jaime Garcia
2006 Twins - Morneau, Santana, Liriano
2005 Yankees - A-Rod, Rivera, Cano
I want to stop but I'm close now - let's fill in the gap
1985 Cardinals - McGee, John Tudor, Coleman &
1985 Dodgers - Pedro Guerrero, Hershiser, Mariano Duncan,
1988 Oakland - Canseco, Eckersley, Weiss &
1988 Dodgers - Gibson, Hershiser, Tim Belcher
1991 Pirates - Bonds/Bonilla, John Smiley, Orlando Merced
1993 White Sox - Thomas, McDowell, Jason Bere &
1993 Braves - Justice, Maddux/Glavine, Greg McMichael
1997 Mariners - Griffey, Randy Johnson, Jose Cruz (traded mid-season to Toronto)
2000 A's - Giambi, Hudson, Terrance Long
2001 Mariners - Boone, Freddy Garcia, Suzuki (also won MVP)
Aaaaaaaaaaaand done. OK so the end result is - It's not rare at all. I imagine that you get a boost being on a good team and that enough to throw votes your way such that you can finish in the top 3 even if you don't really deserve it. Like in 2013 - Wainwright was a deserving Top 3 finisher but Molina wasn't and Miller wasn't. They had good seasons sure but there were a handful of better MVP and ROY candidates that these guys should have been more 5-10 ish than Top 3. It was rare that looking at Cy Young and ROY (which have fewer votes choices so smaller lists) that I didn't find at least one team to check on MVP list.
Now - how many worthy candidates (that might not have gotten votes) is another question. Because that's really what the Nats have this year. But I'll leave that to someone with more time.
*Can't be "worst to first" without being worst first!
**The next guy with as high a winning percentage not in the Hall and not active is Davey. Again I totally think Davey (.562, 1372 wins) should be in too. First in fact.