The Nats are 11-12. That's not good, but it's clearly not insurmountable. They would be 2.5 (AL Central), 3 (NL West), 3.5 (NL Central), 3.5 (AL West), or 4 games out (AL East), in other divisions, but thanks to our earlier discussion of the false god of the 2019 NL East the Nats are only 1.5 games out and look about as good as anyone else at this point.
This weekend marks the start of a homestand against the Padres and the Cardinals. This is a mildly important trip for what follows - a rematch with the Phillies at the start of a 3 team road trip that will take them across three time zones. That's the first real pitfall potential in the season and going into it on a high note would be much preferable to needing a surprisingly good showing to feel hope for this team at the end of it.
The Padres have a good record but it's mostly smoke and mirrors. They are 11-3 in games decided by 1 or 2 runs, which means they have gotten the breaks more often than not. The pitching has been admittedly good but with guys you never heard of like Matt Strahm and Nick Marquevicius leading the way you can't be too confident in it. Other guys like Lucchesi are adequate but nothing more. Chris Paddack is the legit prospect but the Nats will miss him. The pen is the real star as Kirby Yates has developed into an elite guy and they go 5 deep in solid arms including former Nat Craig Stammen. Warren can be a little homer prone if you are looking for a weak link. The offense though is dead. Tatis is a star and Wil "Turner/Ross/Souza trade" Myers is hitting as he does. But Machado is doing worse than Bryce - which means not bad, but decidedly average and Hosmer looks terrible. Kinsler is no Dozier somehow. Hedges hasn't come through. It's a line-up where you get past the first 4 you are set for two innings. They strike-out a lot. They don't walk. If Scherzer can't dominate these guys - be worried. The only saving grace is a little bit of pop.
The Nats have to take 2 of 3 here.
The Cardinals on the other hand, free of Matheny, might be the best team in the NL, as sad as that is to say. And have followed a 3-5 start with a 12-4 run where they have pounded teams into submission. They've scored 6 or more runs, eight times in the last 13 games, and have gone under 4 once. Sure guys like Wong, DeJong, and Ozuna who are hitting like stars currently are probably over their heads, but this is what adding a legit star - Goldschmidt can do. When they come down they'll still have Jose Martinez, and Dexter Fowler who are pretty good, and Carpenter will likely rise. As shallow as the Padres line-up is the Cards almost go 8 deep, the last man being ol' Molina who is trying to push out one last non-horrible year. The pitching is less impressive, with the rotation feeling the losses of Wacha and Martinez. It's a rotation that can be gotten, but you better do it because the bullpen is utterly dominant and that's with Andrew Miller being off. There's a little early season magic here but these are good arms getting lucky. The residue of design stuff.
It'll be a tough fight to win this series.
Overall the Nats have to be looking at 3-3 being an acceptable outcome, even though it's a home series. Anything more would be a nice showing, less a bad omen heading into the Phillies series unless it's one of those lose 4 win 2 things.
Carter Kieboom is up! Who is off the 40 man? We don't know yet. Smart money is on an Rosenthal 60 day DL "injury" though an outright DFA for him is possible. More cruel would be a DFA for Austen Williams but given his track record and injury status it's certainly possible he'll make it back down without issue.
What to expect from Kieboom? He tore up AAA early and while the .380 average is nothing to hang a hat on - he can hit. He can hit for good average (more of a .280-.290 guy), good power (20+ right now), and will take a walk. He's a solid fielder with a strong arm. He's 21 (22 in Sept) so certainly has time to get better. What's the downside? He strikes more than you like and as we've seen with Soto - when major league caliber pitchers figure out how to do it to you, there are going to punish you for it. He may be able to adjust but not everyone can (see MAT) The Nats minor league staff seem to be focusing more on him swinging for the fences than cutting down the Ks so we'll have to see if they got that balance right. He's kind of right on the edge really. More Ks and you'd be honestly worried he'll hit like .150. Fewer and he'd be a Robles/Soto prospect. He's not really a SS, more of a corner IF or 2B given his general lack of speed (14 SB in 21 attempts in 260 minor league games, 6 triples despite good power - 61 doubles, 32 homers).
While I like Kieboom as a decent 2b (or 3B for the future - god forbid). I'm not sure I like him this year or I like him playing SS. I can easily see this year be a little rough - like a .230 BA with the occasional HR that makes you remember why the Nats like him. In other words like Dozier, but if you are going to get that why not get it with decent fielding (once Turner comes back and Kieboom can slide over) and as prep for 2020 and beyond?
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We sometimes talk about what moves qualify as "Win Now" moves. I think the Kieboom promotion is that.
Say what you will about Rizzo, but I like this tendency of his. He hasn't hesitated in the past to start the clock early on top prospects when an immediate need for their service emerges.
It smacks of desperation, but at least it signals a desire to put the best team out on the field that they can at this point.
With Rendon and Turner injured, this isn't a fun team to watch outside of Robles and Soto, so I'm all for Kieboom, if for not other reason than it's exciting. I still think this is a .500ish team that's not going to win anything, so some intrigue is nice.
Meanwhile, in Toronto, "Increase Attendance Now" is the prevailing plan, not so much out of desperation as forestalling desperation.
Going to watch Vladdy Jr. at our obsolescent dome tonight. Saw his daddy here, too.
Where have the years gone?
Jake Noll to Fresno and Koda Glover to 60 day IL to make room for Kieboom
Rotoworld to the rescue - Rendon lineup sighting and also a "flu" excuse for Rosenfail!
https://www.rotoworld.com/baseball/mlb/daily-lineups
Rosenthal to dl with "viral infection" nats are apparently more creative than back spasms
A pitcher can be on rehab assignment for 30 days after 10 day IL ends. So we bought 40 days to figure out control
It’s still too early to say either that the NL East isn’t good or that the cardinals are a world beater (the best team in the league is pretty obviously—at least to me—the dodgers.) we just haven’t seen that much baseball. For example, the Mets bullpen has not been good. Ok, but that bullpen has familia setting up for Diaz and various solid middle inning guys. We also would look at the standings and say the Twins have a great chance to win the Central, the Mariners are playoff threats, and the AL East isn’t very good besides Rays. SSS can still be a factor, plus when good teams play each other a bunch it’s hard for one to have a phenomenal record. Check back in at the AS break.
Stat of the night: 1-8 in opening games of series (after tonight's loss)
5-3 in second games of series
5-2 in 3rd game of series (1 series was a 2 game series).
Big reason why after losing 8 of the first 9 to begin a series they haven't been swept yet, but game 1 is the main culprit why they haven't done any sweeping either. We are about to be at the end of April, and need to lose these next 2 games to the Padres to get swept for the first time this year, which is something the 2 teams in the World Series last year have already gotten, but in the same breath we will now officially go into May without completing a sweep.
Not getting swept in the first month+ is fantastic! Not doing any sweeping in that same time frame either is how you become mediocre which the Nats are at the moment. The SP, even with Scherzer at 1 win, and Strasburg maybe struggling is good enough to prevent any long losing streaks, so they likely won't be getting swept much, but at the same time the bullpen is equally as bad, if not worse, than the SP, which will blow leads left and right so they'll likely never have a sustained winning streak which means won't be sweeping much either. There's going to be a point in time somewhere down the road, maybe the rest of this weekend, maybe the Cardinals series, probably on this upcoming road trip where the SP either won't be good and or the bullpen will be worse then it is currently and that results in a sweep. That means, the Nats have to get it back with a sweep of their own, and with this current bullpen I don't see that happening. Unless some major chances take place, specifically in the bullpen, I see this team hovering in a 10 game window the rest of the year: 5 games under .500 to 5 games over .500 nothing more, nothing less.
Our SP are 7-7 (a lot of those L’s coming from inherited runners) in 24 games with 148.1 innings of work, 46 BB to 162 K, and given up 20 HR.
Our bullpen is 4-6 in 84 games with 63.2 innings of work, 33 BB to 72 K, and given up 11 HR.
This is atrocious. All of that crap, in less than half the innings of our SP. I’m curious how a SP can throw multiple scoreless innings, consecutively or scattered, every start, but our bullpen gives up a run just about every inning. 84 combined appearances and 51 runs given up. And that doesn’t include the inherited runners. Since we can’t cut the entire bullpen, what has that slob Lilliquist done for this team?
(Not so) fun fact: since June 10 last year, this team is 56-67, a staggering 11 games under .500.
Somehow it feels like years since this team was that far over .500, but amazingly it was less than a year ago!
Man, this bullpen is terrible
If this is what 2019 is gonna look like I'd like to bow out now.
Zimmerman to the IL for plantar fasciitis, again. A shame really, because he’s like so good, you know? $18M this year is a bargain for a great hitter, defensive wiz, and a guy who is always on the field and never misses a day. It’s kind of humorous, because he sustained this latest ailment a couple games ago. FP tried to spin it like he landed on it awkwardly, but even he was confused why jumping an inch in the air and coming down normally would hurt so bad. The dude is broken. Plus he’s not even hitting lefties now.
So tired of signing a contingency plan, making 1B a $20M+ commitment every damn year for sub replacement-level performance. In the real world (which we apparently don’t live), he would barely make our bench. Trouble is, this latest IL visit won’t be met with any deserved questioning of his contract/status on this team. You can hear it straight from the ownership, down to the front office, down to DM, and even from some fans: “Oh no Ryan is out! Get well soon Mr. Walk-off! Hope we can stay competitive while he’s gone...”
Make it stop.
I miss Dusty Baker. Not necessarily because he was a great manager, but because you always felt like there was a real person in there, trying to communicate. If he made a decision you didn't agree with as a fan, you always knew he had an explanation afterwards. If someone was struggling, he didn't pretend otherwise.
Of course his teams never struggled like this, so maybe it's an unfair comparison. But whenever Martinez talks it seems like he's too frightened to acknowledge what is obvious to everyone. He did say something like "we have to figure something out with the bullpen," but even that seemed like such a grudging admission, like he's not even really that upset about it, it's just something he knew he had to say in order to get the reporters to stop talking about it. He gives off that same disconnected vibe as Matt Williams, just trying to get through the press conference by saying as little as possible. Which I suppose isn't that uncommon in sports, but it just bugs me, I guess. If people stuck microphones in my face and asked me about my job, I'd be happy to tell them all about it. Maybe that's why I'm not a major league manager. :)
They fired a guy that won 95 & 97 games his first 2 years and now we are stuck with this unmitigated disaster. After barely winning 80 last year, he'll be lucky if he wins 80 this year. Time for a complete sell off: Lerner's need to sell if they aren't going to add payroll in season, or pay more than a million for a quality MLB manager than they need to sell the franchise to someone that actually cares about not only putting a quality, competitive team on the field, but keeping that quality, competitive team on the field for years to come.
Time to fire Rizzo. Yah, you can say he's hamstrung by what the Lerner's are willing to sign for, but his failure to put together a quality MLB level bullpen is a joke. While teams are going the bullpen route: surround 5 average pitchers with great bullpen arms and make every game a 5 inning game, Rizzo is dumpster diving hoping these "reclamation" projects somehow pan out, and because of that his only reliable arm he can trust down there is getting completely run into the ground.
Fire Martinez. It's obvious this is Matt Williams 2.0 which is what I was afraid of. I tried to defend him last year, giving him the benefit of the doubt being his first season on the job and it's a lot different going from second seat on the bench to first seat, but man this dope is doing the same exact things he was doing last season which obviously aren't working. IF they want to get back in the race they need a replacement at manager, and the sooner they make that switch, the better. Of course, when does that come?? Do they need to get swept by the Padres with the bullpen getting tagged for all 3 losses?? Do they need to get swept by the Cardinals as well to make that an 0-7 home stand?? Do they need to go winless on the 10 game trip through Philly, Milwaukee & LA?? Do they have to be behind the Marlins before a change is made?? The "games back" number may only say 2.5 or 3 or 2 whatever it is, but it seems like they are a lot further back than that.
I agree with Max David. The Lerner family fired Dusty Baker bc anything less than a World Series was unacceptable. Martinez is just awful. The worst mistake the Nats could make right now would be to lose sight of the fact that Martinez is in way over his head. Can they apologize to Dusty and hire him back? The only difference between Martinez and Williams is that Martinez has a little bit more personality.
Max... oh boy. If your wishes came true, this team would move away AGAIN.
It’s April 28th.
No way I'd fire Rizzo, but while managers get WAY too much blame, I think it's time to move on from Martinez. The guy can't manage a bullpen. Yes, the Nats bullpen isn't good, despite the sterling performance yesterday, but Doolittle is overused and other guys aren't put in positions to be successful. Barraclough shouldn't pitch with runners on base, but he's been very good when getting a clean inning and Doolittle can't pitch everyday.
Unfortunately, this team is hamstrung by some bad contracts. Namely Zim and Strasburg, (think about this, Strasburg makes more money than Harper, who would you rather have?) that seem to be preventing them from going out and getting a better bullpen. They also always seem to be trying to get by on the cheap instead of biting the bullet and signing or trading for the shutdown guys. So either you need a manager who is adept at handling a bullpen, or you need to spend on a bullpen, you can't have an unproven manager with a cobbled together pen.
Mercifully, it looks like when Turner returns it'll be Turner and Kieboom instead of Turner and Dozier.
I bet there's not an easy fix for this bullpen so early (please just get over Kimbrel signing until after the draft). If Rizzo trades for relievers, not only is there no guarantee they'll be better, but it weakens their organizational depth. The established guys have a ton of innings on their arms, are mostly on contending teams that need them, might be having bad years themselves with the rabbit ball, have injury histories, are overpriced, are inexperienced in pressure situations, etc. Younger guys with any sort of upside aren't getting traded unless there really is something wrong with them or the team needs something else desperately. That would the only way Rizzo could get lucky, and maybe he deserves that given Rosenthal crapping the bed.
The actual stuff of Grace and Miller probably isn't up to snuff for modern contending bullpens, but there's just too many guys who can't throw quality strikes that would be the next guy up on the 40-man roster. I would be willing to see whether they can implement an "Orioles Way" throwback by using Fedde for long stints, instead of as the next starter up in the minors. He was a totally different guy yesterday, pitching quickly and throwing strikes. Maybe there was some luck, but that counts too. Ross may be settling into becoming a decent reliever. It's tough to not blow through guys given the extra innings, when they've already stunk and been warmed up or used in so many games already. You can blame DM a bit for letting it go that way, but that's where they're at - this Cardinals series could be a bloodbath.
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