The Nats came back and won the last two games of the Pirates series, as they should have, and remain on target. When they were back at 19-31 they needed to play great. They did. After they climbed that hill they needed just to play like a good team should. They have. The occasional misstep countered with occasionally doing better than their goal. Beating the Pirates was the goal. They did it. Now playing the Cubs all they have to do is win one.
Now, they may lose a game in the standings as it appears no one in the race loses anymore. The combined record of the Mets, Phillies, Braves, Cubs, and Cardinals since Sunday is 15-1. But that's ok! They should gain a couple back in the 5 game stretch vs Baltimore and Miami and that should set them up with a safe 4-5 game cushion on the Wild Card which they will survive September with. Easy peasy.
Max was back and looked fine. The Pirates aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut and he didn't even get to 80 pitches but that wasn't the point of yesterday. The point was to show he could pitch well (he did), to stretch him out a bit (he was) and to show he could recover (let's hope).
The Nats offense is super hot right now. Some OPSs over the past two weeks
Kendrick 1.687
Eaton 1.286
Dozier 1.256
(if these guys hit like stars - forget about it. Also these guys won't hit like stars)
Soto 1.148
AsCab 1.129
Rendon 1.059
(6th best? STINKS. Let him walk)
Robles 1.023
Gomes .940
Trea .912
Suzuki .845
Adams .805
Above like .950 is a star, above .850 is good, above .800 is fine. The Nats have a lineup going 7-8 deep where the worst player is fine and 5-6 are hitting like stars. The only one not hitting on the entire team is Parra. The pessimist might worry they are "using the good hitting up" before the playoffs, but the realist says "streaks like this happen - you never know when - just enjoy it when you see it. It'll be gone as quickly as it arrived"
There's not much to do right now other than scoreboard watch. We mentioned in on Wednesday but the Phillies get the Marlins, the Braves and Mets play, and the Cardinals will host the Rockies. The other team? It's the Cubs!
The Cubs are on a 5 game win streak, that followed a 4 game losing streak. That pretty much fits the team. The reached 11 games over all the way back on May 14th and then watched as they traded periods where it seemed like they were going to break out with periods where it seemed like they were going to crash. The offense is solid though it lacks a Rendon like team carrier this year. Instead Rizzo and Bryant have been Sotos, and the rest fills in behind them. Baez good. Schwarber and Heyward above average. Russell struggling. Contreras was good behind the plate but he's been hurt and while Lucroy and some guy named Victor Caratini do their best to hold the line they do miss that bat. Nick Castellanos has been a huge addition and HAS filled that Rendon role since coming over. He's put up a .378 / .414 / .756 line but history suggest he's more Baez than Trout. Still it's a good offense and other than Russell there isn't a straight up hole. It works a lot like the Nats offense now - stretching the line-up with real major leaguers.
The relief pitching has some good arms, but it's the new names that are the best. Kyle Ryan, Rowan Wick, the returning David Phelps are doing really well. Ol' pal Kintzler is good to. Then they fill up with names you recognize that are good enough to fill a pen; Cishek, Strop. The question mark is Kimbrel. He was supposed to come in and eventually become that stopper at the end of the game. That would set up the pen very nicely. The Cubs are still waiting but maybe, just maybe, he has turned that corner. In his last 5 games (4.2 IP) he's allowed 4 hits, 0 BBs and struck out 8 giving up 1 run total. He's had this moment before - going 7 games being wild but giving up one hit and no runs - where you though "ok he's got it now" then had several games where he wasn't any good. One game? Ok. Two? Maaybe. More than that you lose the trust and gotta earn it back. If this really is a turn around - then the Cubs pen looks very good.
The match-ups! Sanchez vs Lester. Lester is in the "crafty lefty" portion of his career. Usually doing ok, sometimes spinning a gem and other times having nothing at all. Sanchez hasn't been that good lately - the lone dim spot in the Nats rotation over recent weeks. It could be a slugfest but given the Nats travel I'd give the Cubs an edge. Then it's TBD vs Quintana as Max's return forces the Nats to choose between Fedde or Ross. It's a tough call. The Cubs give no help as they would have been a little vulnerable to lefties but newly arrived Castellanos crushes them. Worst is Quintana is dealing right now and will be a tough match-up. Pick right, Davey! Then Strasburg vs Hamels. Hamels is good but is one game removed from a terrible two game stretch, that they hope isn't signifying a larger issue. Stras is still doing great. Even if the Nats lose the first two, they'd be favored to take the last one here.
OK - Don't get swept! Set up those next five!
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43 comments:
Would be nice to win a series against a good team at their place. It feels like we haven't won a series against the Cubs since like 2014(probably not true). Tough night-day turnaround, maybe the adrenaline can get em a W today.
Thanks Cautiously Pessimistic for sharing links to analysis of MLB bullpens. Interesting to read that 1) NL East teams are among the bottom 8 in bullpen performance and 2) by some metrics, the Nats have the best bullpen in the NL East. Just saying.
I don't know what's better for us, if the Braves sweep the Mets or the Mets sweep the Braves.
I think if we win its better if the mets win. If we lose then we want braves to win
Impressive by the Mets and Phillies this week. Was not expecting to lose a game (record wise) when they played Cleveland and Boston....
Maybe Cleveland is mediocre? would make those last three games of the year far less scary.
@Nattydread - they were super interesting, particularly the last graph on WAR.
Our BP WAR leader is Suero - I'd imagine he was close to Doolittle before the more recent wear and tear took Doolittle down (Doo's XFIP is awful). The new arms (Hudson, Strickland and Rodney) certainly are a boon too. Tony Sipp funny enough is our third most valuable reliever this year. Last fun fact - Gerardo Parra is tied for the 7th most valuable relief arm with Tanner Rainey and a few others (4th if you remove those three new arms).
The additions certainly made the unit less terrible. WPA heavily weights the early year swoon, I like WAR and FIP as more predictive. We were really bad, now we're less bad.
Beautiful day for a game in Chicago.
Anon @9;31 - good or mediocre the hope is those games are meaningless to CLE.
To Cautious Pessimistic
Here is what you said to me in the last thread. "There is no other way to look at it. All five teams fall into the bottom 7. So please stop claiming its the juiced ball because it is effecting everyone."
Now here is my quote
"This is why the baseball philosopher said it was the juiced ball that is causing bullpens to imploded THROUGHOUT THE MAJOR LEAGUES and making managers look totally inept.
Congratulations, you managed to tell me I was wrong and prove my point at the same time.
@ssln,
did you even read the articles...? There's no ifs, ands, or buts about it, the Nats bullpen is a steamy pile of hot garbage compared to the rest of the league who is using the same ball. It's less steamy than it was at the beginning of the year, but it's steamy nonetheless.
A lot little-man-syndrome going on in these comments. So much back and forth to defend one’s opinion into oblivion. Maybe it has something to do with certain people not having much going on to care so much about so little?
PSA: YA’LL ARE KILLING THE BLOG! lol
We seem to be mostly in agreement that ssln is making points that are weird, tangential, and often wrong. Not one of us needs to spend any more time in weird talking-past-each-other debates.
One thing I'd like to talk about is pitches that are just beautiful to look at. Fangraphs has a (wrong, bad, killing baseball) article about Corbin's slow curveball, which is not a great pitch according to fancy stats, but is a delight to watch. I love watching Ross, especially when, as recently, he's good enough and the team is winning. His slider especially is just so smooth looking. This is an old one, but look at this thing: https://gfycat.com/cheapqualifiedblesbok
So, at some point Harper can block a commenter. Right?
Harper? Harper...
Harper - pick one pls: Fedde or Ross? What say you?
The Cubs pen is deep. Impressive they can turn out so many mid 3s ERA guys in 8-0 game.
Also, love that they gave a standing O to Anibal as he walked off.
Second target met. Now go for the series victory, heck the sweep, and start putting people further in the rearview
So personally I think it’s not that hard a call. Joe Ross has been legitimately excellent the last 4 starts. Fedde has not. Why not start Ross if he’s healthy and have Fedde in pen as long man if he falters? (Come to think of it, why is Fedde not in the pen rest of year instead of Grace anyway?)
I hereby declare this past 7 games the most productive weeklong barrage in the history of Nats bats! (Don't know if that's 100% accurate or not......)
Sat: 14
Sun: 16
Mon: 13
Tue: 1 (weird outlier!)
Wed: 11 (That's more like it!)
Thu: 7 (oh no, offense is tailing off!)
Fri: 9 (possibly the most impressive of them all, given the context)
This calls for a re-purposed song:
Roll on Kendrick! Roll on Eaton!
Roll on Dozier 'till the season's done
Roll on Soto! Roll on Cabrera!
Roll on Rendon in the juiced ball era
And roll on Victor Rooooooooobles roll on!
Also, what does everyone think of the uniform colors this weekend? It makes me think of those old 'Spy vs. Spy' cartoons
@GCracka. Averaging 10 runs/game over the course of an entire week definitely has to be the best 7 day stretch for a Nats offense. (Unless you want to argue there was some week that didn’t have a single dud and was thus better/more consistent etc).
The uniforms are absolutely disgusting. Please tell me I don’t have to look at these colors 2 more days.
One thing about the Cubs to keep in mind especially if we end up in WC against them...the Nats MASH lefties. And they have a bunch of lefties (this series were only getting lefties).
@Harper: You are setting the bar much too low. They've already met the target after one game. Maybe thats okay.
Since their May low point --- over half a season of games --- the Nats have been playing at a level that is only bettered by the Dodgers. Essentially, they are the second best team in baseball. Nevertheless, against so-called strong teams they are always the underdogs --- and the pundits barely put them in the top 10.
Atlanta is taking the East. Its the year of the Dodgers. The Yankees, yada yada yada. Houston...
Quietly, the Nats have put together a superlative stretch of starting performances, even without their ace. Their lineup has become a 1-8 wrecking crew. They have led or been tied past the 7th in a large majority of the games they've played in over the past two months: they are always in it. But what we hear is "Nats: Bad Bullpen". End of story. A flawed team. I find this interesting. Its good to be the underdog.
That is all.
@BxJ Yes, good point about Nats and LHP. Per 'The unnameable site', Nats are 2nd in the NL in OPS vs. lefties, only trailing 'Zona (who likely won't make the playoffs).
In addition to the Cubs, I think that the Nats' prowess against lefties could help them if they play the Dodgers (with Ryu and Kershaw). Of course, you have to win the WC H2H first!
In other news, just when the Philistines were making a mini-surge and giving themselves an outside shot at 11-4, the Marlins drop 19 on them!!! Philly was up 7-0 going into the bottom of the third, and ended up losing the game by 8!
They're now 4-3 in this set of games, and need to 7-1 to get to 11-4. Very unlikely that will happen now.
Good Neil Greenberg article about the NL East and the race for the playoffs:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/08/24/want-drama-keep-an-eye-nl-east/
Interesting tidbit about the Mets: apparently, one of the biggest things fueling their post ASB surge is the improved defense. Per Sports Info Solutions, Mets were worst in the league pre-ASB in converting groundballs into outs (70%), and best in the league post-ASB (77%).
I think someone is going to win the central at 86 games. Lucky ducks
Definitely wanted the Braves to lose last night, but man Shea is scary when the Mets faithful are feeling it (reminds me of old RFK). Maybe they can play 14 again tonight and tomorrow.
Lotta skeptics on here, following the king skeptic. The thing is, the Nationals usually end up disappointing in the end. One of these days they’ll win a playoff series or 2.
I've noticed two camps on the Nats and the post-season. Some (I would call them realists and put myself in that camp) want them to win the wild card (preferably WC 1 position), because the Braves are just far ahead enough and just good enough to hold on to the division lead pretty much no matter what the Nats do (since the Nats have been not able to gain ground in the prior head to head matchups). Others (traditionalists?) are pretty much Division Winner or bust. This mostly plays out when folks are discussing whether they are rooting for the Mets or the Braves in a head to head matchup. I would LOVE the Nats to win the division, but doesn't seem likely, so I'm rooting for the Braves this weekend. The Nats are just inconsistent enough to need a little help to secure the WC. What's surprising is the disdain the Division-focused seem to have for the WC(one commenter on another site referred to the WC as "backing in" to the playoffs).
Not sure of the total, but haven't a few WC teams won it all? I recall SF doing it and maybe the Marlins. I know several teams in the WC have made it to the later rounds (Rockies may have made the WS). Again, would love a division crown, just don't think Braves will collapse and don't think Nats can top what they've done (which has been amazing) enough to pass a strong Braves team.
Two in a row in Chicago to extend winning streak to 4. This team must have won 4 in a row five or six times during this run. What's impressive is that the run has gone way beyond a hot streak and become a true season turnaround. My sleeper hit for the Nats is the resurgence of Adam Eaton's pop at the plate. I guess it took two years for his legs to get all the way back. It's like they traded for a real plus offensive player. If he's like this, you HAVE to exercise that option. I would!
It's not "wild card or bust." It's "boy, winning the division is a lot better." Both results require the Nats to keep winning regardless of what happens elsewhere. So I'm kinda rooting for the Mets [spit] while if the Barves win I will happily accept the WC benefit as a consolation prize.
@John C Long time no see! Welcome back friend!
Yes, that makes sense. I'm in the 'would like the division, but think WC is the only realistic chance' camp. So.....Camp 1a?
It would be a shame for the Nats to make the WC, and then lose, because the strength of their team is starting pitching, which doesn't come as much into play in a 1-game playoff (though you do like their chances if Max is back to MAX by then and they are playing at home).
I just don’t think it’s realistic to think we can catch the Braves. They’re such a strong team. They may not be better than the Nats are....but we handed them a big lead and they’re too good to collapse, which we sort of would need them to do unless we’re gonna go like 25-7 or something
Ok, this might be stupid. It probably is. BUT I often wonder if reality still creeps into performance. TO wit - when the nats were up 16-4 on MIL last week, McGowin came in and gave up 4 runs in the bottom of the 9th. Of course, he gave up 4 runs in one inning, BAD. And he's not much good anyway. But is it possible that the thinking was "we're up 12. Just make damned sure you don't walk anyone, and we're certain to get 3 outs before we give up 11 runs."? I know that if I were pitching in a not-major-league game, that'd be my logic.
I know they used to do that, and you'd hear stories Maddux giving up homers to guys in lopsided games so he could trick them on a similar pitch later in the season. McGowin's not that guy, of course, but is it remotely possible they're playing to the situation?
BxJaycobb: Well then let's go 25-7 and sweep the games we have left with the Braves. That'd be a sweet way to roll into October.
I know it's not gonna happen. But I want to see it happen anyway.
Sweep the Cubs and let the Atlanta-Mets series play out.
Dave Jageler reminding us all that we don’t have to settle for the corniest play-by-play guy in baseball. Wherever you are, Bob... stay a while longer.
Good news: I believe that since May 24th, the Nats have been the best team in baseball (judged by W-L). That's about three months, or half of the entire length of an MLB season, of getting the best results.
Bad news: They're STILL six games behind the Braves for the division. Sheesh!
Fivethirtyeight.com gives the Nats a 16% chance of winning the division which feels high to me. I mean, I guess if they go 6-1 in the remaining head to head games, they only need to make up one more game. Stranger things have happened, but I'm not betting on it.
OlePBN, we'll just have to agree to disagree about Bob Carpenter. I do like Dave, though. But when it comes to which guy I'd rather hear on my TV broadcast, See You Later, Dave.
I've said for weeks we'll have to win six out of seven against Atlanta. Unfortunately this great scoring streak we've been on hasn't changed that. We keep winning games by huge margins, and the Braves keep winning them by the thinnest of margins, but winning them nonetheless.
Yup, and that is reflected in the two teams Pythag records....Nats are at like +107 or something and the Braves are like +75 or so. To be 6 games back and have a 30 run advantage, you have to be underperforming by a lot (our pen) and they have to be over performing theirs by a ton (they are...by 5 games, the largest spread in baseball.)
Re Dave and Bob, Dave is just at a totally different level. He makes analytical observations that are just not things Bob says. He also correctly identifies pitches instead of calling change ups sliders, etc. Bob is basically just a comforting sounding voice. He never criticizes the team or any Nats player, he never says anything interesting, and essentially he just limits himself to being cheesy. That said, I believe he is taking time off because his wife is going through some sort of cancer treatment so I definitely wish him and her all the best. Hopefully if and when he comes back it means they have received some good news.
I understood it to be removing a tumor that is believed to be benign. He tweeted last night that he’s head back to DC.
Best wishes to Bob and his wife during this difficult time; had no idea. Play-by-play announcers are like ice cream flavors, there is no singular style or delivery/tone that is head and shoulders above the rest. Bob seems like a true professional and a very nice man. That said, I think his tone is akin to that of a gameshow host ("... AND THE NATS... are up 3-2...")
Cheers to a sweep ya'll!
Cheers indeed!
I like all of 'em: Dave, Bob, FP, Charlie. They're all good to me.
In the 80 games since May 24, the Nats are 54 - 26, 28 games over .500, playing at a 109 win pace. That's pretty amazing, and pulled them from a laggard in the wild card race to a pretty big lead. But, the Braves have been good from Day 1.
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