Young Prospects Day Camp 2024!

IYKYK

The Nats invited their kids to come to camp. Sure. It really doesn't mean much... in any sense.  They'll be in Florida around that time anyway. This gets them exposure to current major league players. You get to see if maybe they look overwhelmed or not. No real downside unless the guys are slated to be here and you knock them down and none of these guys are in fact slated to be here. So good! Something to talk about. 

There are a couple guys that aren't invited that are all tools and likely would be overwhelmed (Elijah Green for example) and you can't invite everyone. Jeremy De La Rosa got invited last year and did not this year. Did anything really change for him? Not really. They didn't have many people they wanted to see up last year is all. 

And the fact he was up last year gives you an idea of what this invite means. Nothing. It's a ride along not a deputizing. It's something for the team to sell to the public. But ultimately it's not about Feb and March, if you can get the fans back on board, it's about April-September (and also probably next November-February)

The pre-season game

 The Nats signed Gallo for 1/5.  It's almost certain they won't sign another bat so from now on we can judge the bats that did sign and see if the Nats should have signed someone else given what they eventually got. No, it's not "fair". It's fun. It's a way to waste time between now and Spring Training. 

Some rules 

Gallo fit a lot of holes as I noted. So bonus points to players that (1) hit LH, (2) hit for power (3) can play any position but SS or C.  In theory any other position is open but outside of corner OF and 1B/DH they will have to be judged on the "better than guy there" comparison. Corner OF and 1B/DH will be judged against Gallo. We'll also give the Nats a 20% salary advantage over any team finishing over .500 last year. 

Up today is Justin Turner 1/13 up to 1.5m in bonuses.  The Nats deal would then be like 1/15.5 with 2 mill in bonuses. Turner is mostly a 1B/DH but can play 3B.  He is RH (minus) but does generate power (plus). Last year he hit .276 / .345 / .455. He's 38 but has been relatively healthy in his late 30s.

Is he better than Gallo at the plate? 

-Yes! Gallo is actually more patient and has more power but hitting like 100 points better than Gallo is a clear advantage.

What about in the field? 

-No. Turner is clearly just a 1B now. Gallo might have some OF left in him and general age/skill puts Gallo as likely a better 1B right now. 

So would you sign Turner for the price* to replace Gallo? No, I don't think so. Turner should be better but he's not ideal and the age would scare me.

 

What about at 3B? How does he compare there? Is he better than Senzel at the plate? 

-Oh god yes. Better power, better patience, can actually hit. It's a crushing comparison. You probably don't get how bad Senzel is.

But in the field? 

-Senzel is not good but he was mostly playing OF before last year so he could get better. Turner is too old and he's not getting better. A hands down win for Senzel and again he's not that good. FWIW the contract for Senzel is 1/2m.

So would you sign Turner for the price to replace Senzel? Yes. Senzel is not a functional 3B. He shouldn't have been signed with Vargas already here and Vargas is not good. 

Would you sign Turner for the price over Vargas?  Yeah. The bat difference would make up for the fielding in my book. Vargas is probably going to be overall negative next year. Turner wouldn't be.

This is pretty much saying though any guy that can play 3B would have been a better play.  Turner should be usable next year. I'd rather the team spend 15 mill on a usable player than waste 2 million on a guy who likely isn't.

*Note this is not my ACTUAL take. My actual take is "Is Turner better? Then I don't care. Not my money. Nats should sign him" but I get by now most of you buy into having to accept the money bucket theory of baseball payrolls. Also always answering "Better? Yes! Sign!" is not fun.

New Unis?

 Well here’s a shocker.  New uniforms for 2024

I think unless the current uniforms are hated (they aren’t) or the changes are very minor (they aren’t) then fans generally dislike changes. I get it. Why fix what’s not broken?  It’s pretty easy to mess up design so be judicious when deciding to do it. So maybe that’s just it  but in general fans aren’t happy

Personally I dislike both   The pullover is kind of in that 70s Braves aesthetic but with only a logo and not a full name across the white space is too much for me.  The Braves themselves addressed this by making it a button down for their City Connect. Also causing waves is the pumped up use of the busy “block W on a silhouette of the Capitol with stars on either side” logo  it’s nothing fans hate from what I can tell but it’s also not loved making it an odd choice  The interlocking DC is generally more favored and is officially back but has been relegated to arm patch duty.  All this being said - it’s an alternate.  I don’t like it but I do think alternates, if they must be done, should do stuff like this and not everyone will like everything about them.  Generally.

I say that because the team did hit a home run with the cherry blossom alternates. Which for purely “make limited” money reasons won’t be worn after this year.  Dumb!

The road changes might be more an issue because you’ll be seeing them all the time.  Road unis tend to be boring but this takes it to a new level replacing the red script “Washington” with a block blue one shrunk a bit to fit straight across rather than at an angle.  It looks generic.  Uninspired.  

But that’s me   Maybe you are one of the randos Tweeting “Nats brought the fire!!!” For some reason  I’m happy for you   It’s not I’d be buying these* so my opinion matters very little.  Your thoughts? 

*I don’t buy jerseys in general  I have 3   A blank Yankees one received as a gift, a cheap Chris Calloway Giants  one purchased bc it was like $5, and a Quebec Nordiques purchased when I made a valiant effort to like hockey more  didn’t work  still just a very casual fan

Earnest on Gallo

Joey Gallo is going to be a National.  1 year, 5 million.  He'll likely play both 1B and the OF as needed. 

A quick primer on Joey Gallo. A decade or so ago Gallo was a top prospect, A top 10 guy who hit 42 homers and walked almost 90 times across 126 games of A+ and AA ball as a 20 year old. That's prodigious power for a prospect and great patience. He'd put up a .300/.400/.600 line in AA the following year and looked to be a superstar despite a .193 batting average in AAA and a very high K/9 rate at every level.  He adapted to every other jump quickly, surely he would again. But he did not and he has spent his major league career balancing out that power and those Ks and lack of contact in general into something decidedly average production wise at the plate. But you could pair that oddly average bat with a pretty good glove. Guys with his hitting profile are usually oafs. Think Adam Dunn or Kyle Schwarber. But Gallo was a decent OF with a great arm. Great instincts for the game, decent speed (though not a base stealer by any means)

But that was then.  What about now? What about 2024? 

Everything is a bit worse. He's been hurt more and more often playing 120 and 110 games the past two years. His average, acceptable in the .205-.210 range has now settled into the below .180. His fielding instincts can no longer compensate for a aging and hurt body and he's better off staying at 1B.  He is still producing enough power to make his bat worthwhile but in a way that you find guys 6-8 years older doing it; find a mistake and try to get around fast and crush it over the fence. His homer profile reads like that of Evan Longoria and Matt Carpenter. In 2022 his power dipped a little and he was flat bad. Last year it perked back up and he was back around average. Overall it reads both as "ok right now" and flashing red danger lights. 

But you can see how this move makes sense for the Nats in a number of ways, or at least you could this afternoon... we'll get to that. 

Gallo is a lefty bat. The Nats need a lefty bat.  Gallo has power. The Nats need power. Gallo can play 1B or DH or corner OF.  The Nats could use a guy at any and all of those positions to start the year. He's a player that fits. There's also value in the idea of mixing up the lineup for a pitcher. The Nats are full of high contact low power hitters. Gallo is something different to face and that change can matter in a line-up. He also represents no long term outlay of money. If the Nats want to move on from him this year it will be easy to do. 

Ok but then... Rhys Hoskins is all this too except, you know, good. No he isn't 5 million for 1, he's 34 million for 2. But everything here he does better. No he doesn't have the same power but he'll hit for more contact and will put more balls over the fence through that. He fields 1B well. And the contract he is looking to sign means the Nats can move on from him fairly easily and with contracts coming off after 2024 they'd still be able to sign guys going into 2025. The difference between the two is simply money. 

But that's back to another argument about what an increasing number of fans want them to do. It's still not what they HAVE to do. Not yet. That's not what 2024 is about really. Frustration may grow but remind yourself it's about 2025. Feel free to scream then but try to hold for one more year.

As a 2024 signing itself though I still don't like the Gallo signing. The chances of getting nothing are simply too high for me and the team can't afford to get nothing from their FA signings if they want to not be terrible.

Monday Quickie - still nothing

I guess old Nats friend Hader signed. But going to the AL really doesn't mean much for the Nats. 

Otherwise it remains quiet. For a team trying to wait things out both very quick, which can create a feeling like the last players remaining have to be snapped up NOW, and very slow, which can make your strategy interfere with preparation time by the player, are not good.  I'd say we're approaching very slow, but I'd also say that's probably better than very fast. The Nats might have to bite earlier before the best deals are uncovered but they should still be able to use a slow market to keep costs down in general. 

If they are going to sign someone. 

Last week on Twitter I got into a little back and forth with someone who felt we were being too down on the 2024 Nats. So what if they don't do anything? The game plan was never for 2024 it was for 2025. It was for the young guys up now; Ruiz, Garcia, Abrams, Gray, Gore PLUS the young guys to come who aren't here yet;  Wood, Crews, House, Cavalli. We might see them this year but they won't likely be impacting any races.

That's mostly correct and I do, in my cold steel heart, agree. Whatever happens this year we have to wait until we see what the team looks like on Opening Day 2025 before we make any judgments. It doesn't matter how or how fast they get to legitimate Wild Card contention, just that they do. And there was never a case for that in 2024 unless you were really optimistic. 

BUT 

But there is a case for wanting to see the team show they are going to move when the time is right. That is part of what the Werth signing was. We plan to compete. Without that you can envision a scenario where the kids don't progress as hoped and they scrap 2025 and maybe more. They aren't planning to compete right now so maybe, unlike last time, they are fine not doing that for a while. 

And there is also a case for not wanting to watch a miserable team again. The Nats won 71 games last year and were lucky to win that. They are probably a little worse than last year right now.  Does anyone want to watch a 65-70 win team again? Does the idea "well there's a good chance they should be better in 2025" make it more palatable? Nats fans have now suffered through 4 lousy years of baseball. One more would match what went on when they got the team, but without the shine of a new team and then a new park. The World Series helps keep it from a riot situation but patience, from what I can tell is wearing thin. 

This remains conjecture and speculation until we get to 2025 but I think we'd all rather feel like they are going to try than wonder if they are going to try. Right now Nats fans are in the latter group.

What about Wood, House, and Cavalli?

Yesterday we talked about Crews (well not really - more honestly we talked very briefly about rankings and psychology) and you can go back and read that. But the Nats did have four other guys on these Top 100 lists. Let's talk about them

James Wood : I guessed he'd fall out of the Top 10 and he did in one place not the other. It will be close in MLB's list and likely not close (easily IN the Top 10) in Fangraphs, but we'll see. Still the takeaway is He's a Top 15+ ish player. Why in general is everyone still so high on James? 

Take a look at this. 

For those too lazy to click it's the Eastern League leaders in HRs.  James is not 1, he's tied for 6th but that's not the only number to look at.  What's also interesting is the PA and Age.  Out of the Top 29 (those with 13 or more homers). James is only 21st in PA and he's the 2nd youngest player here. So no, he's not generating the power of say Tyler Hardman or Luke Ritter or Ben Rice (hey two Yankees!) but those guys are 24, 26, and 24 respectively (awwww, well at least the Yankees are the 24yos). Wood has far more promise to improve. Guys slightly older like Colt Keith and Coby Mayo also generate more power but here's where things not in these numbers kick in. Those are both oafish types that the teams are hoping can stick at 3rd instead of being forced into a 1B/DH role*. Wood is an overall talent with the potential to stick in centerfield.  To bring it back to the Yankees, think Aaron Judge. If you ever watch him play OF he's so much better than you'd think given his size. Wood is like that. Wood is also, if not a better fielder, just faster giving him a weapon on the basepaths if teams choose to use it. 

That's a TON of good. What's the catch that keeps him from being a Top 5 guy? It's the 39 walks and 124 Ks. That's not the worst walk rate, but it's not a plus and that K rate is pretty bad. So that hangs over him in the "is he going to be a useful all-over Dave Kingman, which would still be very good, or something really special" way. We probably won't know though until he gets to the majors because nothing but the Ks are holding him back and they aren't holding him back that much. You want to see what this kid can do right now.

Brady House : I thought he'd move up a bunch and he barely budged.  Well I was wrong here because he was barely budging from MID-SEASON 2023 lists. He had fallen off 2023 lists entirely at the start because of his mostly injury related issues in 2022 and jumped back on based on what he had done starting 2023. It's easy to forget because he's been around longer but he's even younger than Wood, who turned 21 at the tail end of last season, and will play nearly half of this year as a 20 year old. He hit at every level he played in last year (A, A+, AA) showing himself to have .300+ potential.

But his K-rate and BB-rate in AA resembled Woods. And unlike Wood he's not the greatest talent. The raw power is not there. He was a usable at SS but everything (size, speed) was saying move him to 3B to take advantage of his plus plus arm**.  This knocks him down a couple pegs. The ceiling for House would still be "All-Star" but the ceiling on Wood is "all-timer". Note please I'm saying "ceiling" here. Don't get ahead of yourselves.

Cade Cavalli : basically he's here because he was here last year and got hurt? I have to think MLB will drop him out. I get why they all liked him going into last year. Very solid AAA numbers. Really keeps the ball in the park. A bit wild with not as much Ks as you'd like to see but history shows potential for that to improve. A guy with a great chance to find a spot for a few years in a major league rotation. But getting hurt throws that all into question. Let's hope he bounces right back.

 

So while we curiously argue about Crews (and Skenes) currently not looking like the best-est in the draft class, don't get caught up with it too much. Crews should be good. Wood still looks like he should be good. House has potential to be good and should be usable. The offensive pieces are mostly there.  They have usable in Garcia and usable with potential in Abrams and usable with potential at the plate let's hope he's not a bust with the glove in Ruiz. This gives them a very solid core. Even if none hit high you can buy a couple of very productive bats*** and this is a very good offense, or you can probably just play it out with what you'll have in a couple years and be close to average.  That's not a guarantee - you can look at the 2023 Tigers to see a "made reasonable choices, developed ok, but didn't work out enough" scenario on offense - but I can't make a complaint of how the Nats set themselves up at the plate here. 

 

*Mayo especially because his arm is a rocket.   

**To re-emphasize Mayo's arm here, everyone loves House's arm. Mayo's is seen as better. Like literally maybe the best arm in the minors. But House fields better and it don't matter how good that arm is if you aren't getting to enough balls. 

*** Now can you do that AND buy arms? Because they'll NEED to buy arms. 

Am I tired of being right? No.

Baseball America released it's Top 100 AND....

Wyatt Langford #4

Dylan Crews #6

Paul Skenes #9 

So yes, as I said Langford DID leap over Crews and Skenes (but they all remain great prospects and everything could change again by Memorial Day). Skenes dropped a bit more than I thought but just a bit (I wouldn't have guessed under #7) 

Also Wood did drop out of the Top 10, as I also said, but only to #11 not 15-20 like I guessed. So only a minor win there. 

House... stayed stable in the 50s?  I find that very odd for a 20 year old that hit well in AA but there's probably a bit of "burned me once" mixed in here from people that got real high on him after 2019. 

Hassell's injuries cost him his spot in the Top 100. Certainly reasonable until he shows he's back to what he was.  Green also dropped out but I told you last year that was a "don't want to miss out on the 5 tool guy everyone is taking a flier on" rating, not actual "potential baseball player" rating. 

Look I'm not saying I'm a good talent evaluator. I have no idea. But I do like to think I'm a good evaluator of the evaluators - how they think, what factors OTHER than actual skill and potential causes them to ranks guys like they do. I think this shows I'm not crazy there. 

FWIW - Wood didn't drop out of BPs top 10. They've always been much higher on Wood (had him at #15 going into last year to BAs 39, had him at #3 post draft last year) so that's not surprising. MLB, the third of the ones I look at is in between so we'll see. Based on this he might still be in there. Fangraphs too LOVES Wood (he was still their 2 at the end of the year) so I'm guessing he does stay in their top 10.

BA - Langford 4 Crews 6 Skenes 9 Wood 11 House 55

BP - Langford 2 Crews 5 Skenes 9 Wood 7 House 69 Cavalli 85

Monday Quickie - Int'l Signing Day

Here's a quick primer on International Signing Day, or at least my take on it. It boils down to are you signing one of the top 5ish prospects? Good! Might not work out but you are trying. Are you not? Bad! But maybe you'll be the one of two/three teams that gets lucky this year and finds a diamond in the rough. 

Did the Nats sing a top name? Nope. Not particularly close either. Top 25 sounds good but feel free to peruse old Top international lists. It really isn't. FWIW people do like Victor Hurtado in the "really young but really could be something" way so I'm not saying the Nats did the absolute minimum. But much like one would think looking at the major league team, there could be more done here.

So the Nats are one of 27 or so teams hoping to get lucky. I wish them well. 

What else is there to talk about?  NOTHING.  The FA list has shifted a little in two weeks

1B/DH : Carlos Santana, JD Martinez, Brandon Belt, Jorge Soler, Donovan Solano, Garrett Cooper

Others with DH potential :  Justin Turner, Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall, Aaron Hicks

Starters : Lorenzen, Clevinger, Kluber, Carrasco,Wood

The starters have been cut in half but the bats are close to the same. If you are worried about the Nats missing out on the chance for a bat that can help, that's probably only going to happen if they don't want to sign something like that. Martinez has interest and likely won't be a Nat but it's pretty quiet on the others. 

Of course most would argue they need a dependable starter more, especially to bridge into 2025 when no-good innings eaters Corbin and Williams will go. So focus on those names I guess. This market might remain set until Montgomery and Snell go and trigger teams moving to back-up plans. But guys seem pretty eager at this point considering they keep signing. These types aren't waiting around to be the guy without a chair. The Nats could get them if they wanted to, but it doesn't appear to be a priority. 

Of course, of course, I'm still just speculating and I'd tell you if you said the above to wait until mid Feburary or so. It FEELS like the Nats are just floating along and not trying, but we don't know and we won't know for sure until guys start heading to Florida. It's boring right now, but that doesn't mean it's bad. It's just boring and we make it out to be bad.

Still , if more doesn't happen soon I'll have to write about something else here.  The weather? It's cold and rainy here. I hear DC is getting snow. I like snow.

Keibert Ruiz - The only National

That might be saying a bit much but I'm going to list the Nationals under contract for 2025. 

• Stephen Strasburg
• Keibert Ruiz

That's it. The Nats have plenty of guys under control but exactly zero of them have the Nats made a longer term commitment to.  Not saying they should have just noting what is going on. 

Keibert had an down and up year last year at the plate. The guy we saw in the first half, particularly from May on simply should not be a starter in the major leagues.  The guy we saw in the second half might be the best hitting catcher in baseball. Yes, it's not a great list but still he had the same OPS in the 2nd half as Rutschman had for the year.  

For a young player, and Keibert is still young, this matters. It might mean he's learning something. Ruiz is always swinging and always making contact so the type of contact he makes matters and he's the best it seems when he's leaning into his strengths. From the right side that means keeping the ball down and getting hits. From the left that means getting the ball up. From both sides it seems like he did his best when he was a little more selective but really getting ahead of the pitches and pulling them. Not hitting them any harder mind you.  So what is going on?  Just a guess but by pulling it I imagine there is a split second less time for infielders to react on the right side, a few feet closer to the fence from the left side. Normally that might not make a big difference but when you are constantly putting the ball in play like Keibert, that adds up more.

That is it with Ruiz. He's not going to strike out so he just needs to get as many solid bats on balls as possible. Very few hit the ball as correctly as Ruiz but also nearly all the league hits it harder.  It's a weird combo being able to square the ball up really well but with nothing behind it. 

I'm rambling.  The point is 2nd half Ruiz did hit the ball differently so there's a possibility that 2nd half offensive Ruiz could continue.  And that's important as he's not a great fielder (might be terrible) and he's the only guy the Nats are counting on right now. When you make only one move that move better be a good one.

So who do you NOT want?

I thought about doing a post about who the Nats should get but the honest truth is that would breakdown pretty easily into "best available player" arguments. While that's fun and all there's only so many ways to say Rhys Hoskins and Blake Snell. And what is the point arguing about guys there is close to 0% chance the Nats will get? 

Instead we'll play another game - who do you NOT want. From the players listed below still in play, who would you LEAST like to see on the Nats next year.  It can be for any reason, talent, personality, fit, injury history, personal grudge, what have you.  I've added in ages and last years stats for quick reference. I'll note that for a few it might be worth it to look at 2022 too. Like Kluber and Carrasco, obviously bad standouts last year, had healthy and good 2022s. You can still not want them because of the age, but there is a reason they are on this list to start.

1B/DH 

Carlos Santana (38) 146G .240 / .318 / .429  23 HR

JD Martinez (36) 113G  .271 / .321 / .572  33HR

Brandon Belt (35) 103G  .254 / .369 / .490  19HR

Jorge Soler (32) 137G  .250 / .341 / .512  36 HR

Donovan Solano (36) 134G  .282 / .369 / .391  5HR

Garrett Cooper (33) 123G  .251 / .304 / .419  17HR

Others with DH potential

Justin Turner (39) 146G  .276 / .345 / .455  23HR

Tommy Pham (36) 129G  .256 / .328 / .446  16HR

Adam Duvall (35) 92G  .247 / .303 / .531  21HR

Aaron Hicks (34) 93G .253 / .353 / .383  8HR

Starters

Marcus Stroman (33) 27G 3.95 ERA  3.58 FIP  7.8 K/9  3.4 BB/9

Michael Lorenzen (32) 29G 4.18 ERA,  4.46 FIP,  6.5 K/9,  2.8 BB/9

Mike Clevinger (33) 24G 3.77 ERA, 4.28 FIP,  7.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9

Corey Kluber (38) 15G (9 starts) 7.04 ERA, 7.11 FIP, 6.9 K/9, 3.4 BB/9

Carlos Carrasco (37) 20G 6.80 ERA, 5.86 FIP, 6.6 K/9, 3.8 BB/9

Sean Manaea (32)  37G (10 starts) 4.44 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 9.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9

Alex Wood (33) 29G (12 starts) 4.33 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 6.8 K/9, 3.9 BB/9

I'll start.  My heart doesn't want Hicks. This is because what appeared to happen with the Yankees when he didn't handle not performing well.  He got hurt, he got booed, and either he pressed or got depressed or something and he never got on track again despite being talented (as seen in his brief Baltimore stint).  For a team that needs senior leadership, it's not quite what I'm looking for, though by all accounts he is a great guy and teammate. It's just the on field example that's troublesome. Not a bad attitude but something doesn't work here in adverse situations.  Add to that the fact the Nats need power and he's one of the few options without it, it's a pass for me. 

I also don't like dumb long hair. Long hair is ok.  Manaea's got locks.  Lorenzen (who did cut it) had a passable length of wavy hair but Clevinger? Not working for me.  Don't want to see that every 5th day unless you are an ace and you can get away with whatever you want.

Tuesday Quickie - 2024 Year of the Nationals!

Taking an extended holiday break is nice. I did it and so, in fact, did the Washington Nationals. After signing first round flop Nick Senzel and buy low comeback potential reliever Dylan Floro, Mike Rizzo put on his Tommy Bahama flew down ironically to Bermuda and sipped on a Mai Tai for three weeks. They've singed only minor league depth since then and only a few of those. 

But again that's the plan as we understand now. It is not a "strategic signing to set up the team for 2025" off-season.  It is a "wait and see what bargains we can get because we don't know when we'll be good" off-season. Much like it was going into last year. Signings will come, they almost have to unless they are resigning themselves to a worse finish, but they will come later when the pool becomes shallower but the demand for water has also diminished.  Talent should still be there but at better prices. 

For reference here's the list of ok FAs that might end up on the Nats, updated for signings.

1B/DH : Carlos Santana, JD Martinez, Brandon Belt, Jorge Soler, Donovan Solano, Garrett Cooper, Cutch

Others with DH potential :  Mitch Garver, Justin Turner, Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall, Aaron Hicks

Starters : Stroman, Martin Perez, Giolito, Lorenzen, Clevinger, Kluber, Carrasco, Manaea, Montas, Wood

Still plenty of help available. So do something! (I'm talking to the other teams here because they have to make their run before the Nats swoop in).

2023 was a mild downer. The team stunk, though not as badly as it could have. The prospects in house didn't explode, though enough made progress to keep the plan on track. On quick analysis, the draft didn't get the best guy*, though there's nothing at all wrong with Crews as a 2. 

2024 though? Year of the Nationals! Until it isn't but that isn't today.

*Basically all post-draft work says Wyatt Langford, picked #4 by the Rangers, clearly looks to be the best and I'd be shocked if he doesn't leapfrog Skenes and Crews in prospect lists this Spring. Yes, it's early but you'd rather be the best early too!