Are playoffs a possibility?

I don't see the Nats as a .500 team on talent. 

BUT here they are. Which begs the question for me - maybe this is a season where this level of talent gets you to .500. And there are seasons where .500 ish can get you to the playoffs.  Does this seem like a good fit for 2026? 

Currently the Nats are a game out of the Wild Card, behind two teams and slightly ahead of... well most of the NL. What do the adjusted standings (trying to take luck out of what happened so far) tell us? You can choose which one you like but looking at the various projectsion the Nats are where they are supposed to be.  Maybe a touch more 33-34 than 34-33 but let's not quibble.  We talked about why I think they'll end up a little below that but what about the other teams.  Is the NL East weirdly underperforming? The NL in general? I can't really say that  as you'd expect with groups that big it looks like a mixed bag.  So there's not a good reason to think luck will swing for the Nats opponents. 

What about though the ones that matter - the ones in the playoffs? The idea here is the Nats look to be pretty stable.  If someone ahead of them has a worse projected record than the Nats they might fall past them. On the other hand someone chasing the Nats could catch them if the numbers say they've been unlucky. 

The Braves, Dodgers, Brewers are all out of reach as expected. Things can change but right now they are better than the Nats and have a better record. The gap should grow, not shrink. 

The Cardinals and Phillies are in and based on these numbers are catchable. The Cardinals aren't better than the Nats, but aren't worse. Their advantage is simply being where they are right now. The Nats have to catch them. The Phillies are more in danger, powered to their record by a 14-5 one-run game record as opposed to the stats. The Nats have a good shot of catching Philly if they play like they have this year. The question there is do you take the year as a whole or ignore the terrible start?  If you put that behind the Phillies, they probably are in the Cardinals area - not great but good enough to hold that advantage. 

Arizona and San Diego, tied for the 3rd spot right now. Both look worse than the Nats for the season. Not a bad chance to catch them at all. They do get to feast on the Rockies though. 

Just ahead of the Nats are the Cubs and Pirates. This may be where the problem lies for the Nats. These two look like teams that should do much better. So while the Phillies, D-Backs, and Padres might flub the last two WC spots, it's the Cubs and Pirates who'd the numbers say you should bet on. 

Behind the Nats are Cincy and the Marlins.  Cincy appears to be a mirage even at this modest record. The Marlins though... are kind of real? This is weird.  I don't know.  I can believe in James Wood / CJ Abrams MVP pair a lot easier than Xavier Edwards / Otto Lopez. But I think the Marlins, real or not, are in the same sort of fragile boat the Nats are. There isn't obvious depth.  If one key guy goes down it could get ugly. There's a lot of variance here, too much for me to say, yeah they'll catch the Nats. 

Finally there's the Mets, not buried far enough to be out of it, but they haven't been good and something would have to change for this team to catch the Nats. It certainly could but the numbers so far suggest lots of other possibilities first. 

So looking at the way the season has gone so far. The Nats have been a .500 team and if they can keep that up they COULD make the playoffs but it's likely they'd be the first or second team out. It's not out of the realm of possibility though.  We'll see how this all changes around the All-Star break. 

What about the pitching?

The pitching - well it's not very good but we can't just go ahead and make assumptions that it'll stay that way.  Maybe it will get better! (or worse!) 

About a month ago I looked at the starters and tried to figure out who was "real" there. I said Irvin could be a poor innings eater and Litell really was bad.  Well May has not been kind to Irvin.  He might have broke. On the other hand Litell looked much better. I said I didn't know about Miles and I still don't. Mikolas has been a weird mixed bag, shutting down ATL for 5 then two starts later getting pounded by MIA. I do think we still don't know what this guy is from capable mid-rotation guy to coaching high school baseball. I said Foster Griffin wasn't an ace (he's not) and Cavalli should be better (he has been) 

I think it means the starting pitching can maintain it's current "not very good but maybe good enough not to drag the team down" trajectory. Cavalli is an actual not back of the rotation major league starter.  Four the rest of the four, I'd say something decent is there each time around from Litell, Griffin, Mikolas, and the last spot while also two not so decent things and a bad thing. That's a below average rotation but one that 2 out of every 5 days is good enough and you might get lucky another 2 with this offense. 

The relief pitching hasn't been good either and there's a decent argument it should get worse with Schultz, Lovelady, and Beeter seeing important innings and all should get worse based on stats. To me though if Varland, Lord, and Ribalta are real that's enough to hold down your wins. 

Again we're not looking for the pitching staff to win, we're looking for them to hold place.  They are currently one of the worst staffs in baseball but not the complete drag the Cubs or Giants rotations are.  I think they can hold that. The relief staff is decidedly belwo average but not game losing... I think they might be a little worse that that actually. Just more guys who are doing better than you'd expect. Maybe you can dial that in.  It's hard to say because if one position is still in the "it's early" stage - it's relief pitching. A couple bad outings for a guy who throws 17 innings can really screw things up.  So while I THINK they might be worse than that, it's what I'm least confident about. 

Where does this leave the Nats as a team?  

I think it's a team who's bats and staff are both a little overperforming.  They've basically earned their .500 record 62 games in but I'd be surprised if they matched it in the final 100.  But also 40-60 would be a surprise.  45-55 makes more sense to me which puts this at a 76 win team. Is that good enough? 

I think cooling down right now might be best because people were getting excited in a "playoffs maybe possibly, if I squint my eyes?" way and that was an overreach. That isn't this team. I think what will get people properly excited is if the season ends with kids like King and Morales up and looking good and a sensible pitching plan for 2027 that isn't "find what scraps you can put behind Cavalli" 

Can the rest of the team keep hitting?

We took at look at James and CJ but there are seven other guys who make up the line-up. While stars can do a lot, they can't carry a dead two innings at the plate.  So the question is can these guys keep doing what they are doing? 

We'll start with two easy ones - Can Luis Garcia hit about average?  Sure!  Since 2022 that's what he's done so no reason to think the 26 year old is going to be any different now.  Can Nasim Nunez still stink? Sure! There's a reason the slick-fielding SS was available in the Rule V draft.  They never thought he could hit at the major league level. And he's proving them right. I suppose he could be worse, but for now we'll leave it as a yes - he can maintain a .200 BA with some walks and zero power. 

Ok what about the other 5+? We'll start with the three regulars from the start of the year. Lile, Young and Ruiz. 

Daylen Lile - the kid has taken a step back from last year when he played well enough to send Crews back to the minors and have Nats fans thinking maybe they found a star. Fans keep doing that.  Lile is hitting across the board worse and well we don't know what's coming next. It could be adjustments from him or it could be further adjustments from the other teams to really put him down.  Your first time up is a lot of "can you handle major league stuff".  The answer from Lile was yes. The next step is "can you handle major league PITCHING". The difference is instead of "Here's my fastball.Try to hit it" is the other team now tries to pitch to certain spots or in certain order. They know they can't get by with no effort.  Lile is sort of holding his own but also had a worse May than April so I'm not sure. I think he won't ever be a Nunez (who can't handle major league stuff) but could he slip under average? Possible. Jury is still out on a kidwith 100 major league games under his belt

Jacob Young - he's a glove first guy and whatever the Nats get from him at the plate is a bonus... assuming he's not terrible. Last year he was pretty close to that. He does not hit the ball very hard so before this year his game was hit it on the ground and leg it out. That works until it doesn't and "it doesn't" seemed to be 2025.  In 2026 he's lifting the ball more and hitting it a touch harder and the combination is getting him more non-legged out hits. As this is not based on anything crazy, I think he can keep this up. He's a slightly below average hitter and I think that holds.

Keibert Ruiz - I'd love to say yes, but the numbers don't back that up. He IS hitting better. Ruiz was always a guy that could hit the ball - he doesn't walk, he doesn't K, he hits the ball square. But he's also a slow catcher so if he doesn't generate power all this means is a lot of ground outs. This year he's getting the ball up and hitting it harder. More hits, more XBH, fewer ground ball outs.  But the numbers aren't too far different from 2022/2023. The differences really are - nothing soft and massive amounts of pull. I just don't see Keibert Ruiz .280+  20 HR hitter here.  I do think though he can land at an averageish level. Which would be good, but would also slow the offense down. 

And the others?  Mead, Tena, Vivas, Crews, House? 

Crews still looks bad so sure he can do that. I'd honestly expect him to do better eventually but these numbers suggest more time in AAA rather than helping out the Nationals. 

House was approaching average and I would have said yes, but the team seems to think no bc they sent him back down so what do I know. I'm not going against them 

Vivas, like these two and Lile, just don't have a lot of major league at bats to feel sure about anything.  He stunk in his first year up in 2024 but that seems like a fair amount of bad luck.  I don't think he's this decent, but he's probably closer to this than that. Maybe a half step worse? Stats really don't like him so I'll guess I'll settle there. 

Tena is someone that has done what none of these other guys have. He's really swinging the bat faster. But he's trading a bit more power for more Ks and fewer walks. He's been about this "playable below average" for a while now.  No reason to say he can't keep it up. The real question for DH is when do we see some of the kids who look like they can actually hit. 

Mead is probably then what things hinge on going forward. It sounds weird to say that but what do we have so far? Garcia, Lile, Young, Ruiz, Tena sitting around average, if you made me guess I'd go below rather than above. Nunez stinking. That's could work ok in a lineup with a couple of stars but you really do need one more bat here to be good. Wiemer was that bat to start but that was always just a lucky break from a journeyman.  Mead... Mead was a legit prospect who was always expected to hit. He just didn't. He swung the bat hard but couldn't connect in the right way and that made him press a little taking away from what was in the minors a keen eye with good contact.  But it seems to all be coming together now. I'm not going to say he can keep it up but also I'm not going to say he can't keep up something close. The numbers are that good. 

 

The end result of a look at the other guys is probably a full step back. As might be expected with the team unexpectedly doing so well, you have guys outperforming where they should be. The good news is though there's a lot of ok talent here - enough to fill in the gaps - and with the possible return of "average Ruiz" you really are just looking for a couple big bats. Yes that could be expensive and all but you do have them here in Abrams and Mead... maybe. 

I think where we come down is - Wood will keep rocking (probably unless he gets tired), the bulk of the lineup will do slightly worse but  not enough to keep the line-up from being above average. How much above average lands with CJ and Mead.  If these guys can hit like stars for the season, you have your Top 3 lineup carrying the below average staff. If they can't it's more around average. My take from the numbers says they can't BUT also not like in a "going to collapse" way. More like dropping down to slightly above average. Good enough to be fun. Probably not good enough to keep the team over .500.  For that they'll need some pitching help. 

Can Wood and Abrams fight for an MVP?

 Yesterday I said the team was doing as well as it was because they had two MVP candidates in the lineup and everything else followed. Let's see where they stand today 

Wood : .276 / .413 / .551  14 2B, 15 homers, 9 SB (1CS), 46 BBs, 77Ks 

Abrams :  .289 / .381 / .542, 11 2B, 2 3B, 12 HR, 7 SB (4CS), 25BBs, 47Ks

Let's start with Wood because he's pretty easy.  

In 2024 when Wood broke onto the scene with an impressive half season debut, he was close to perfect at the plate. It's clear he identifies strikes well and, when he can make contact, crushes the ball.  2025 felt like a step back but only because there were two Woods. First half Wood was an MVP candidate as well hitting .278 / .381 / .534 with 24 homers. But he began to peter out with a slump early in June and a more extended one from late June into the ASB. He struck out a bunch more and didn't get the lift on balls that he did in the first half cutting his power. The slump continued right after the break and he didn't get back into form until the last week of the season. Without going into the pitching faced a combination of opponent approach and general tiredness playing his first true full season probably explains some of it.  

This season not much is different than last other than everything he was "one of the best" at he's now "Maybe number one" at. The only thing he continues to have issues with is making contact but this is often the trade-off for power hitters and one you take. 

I don't see any approach reason why Wood can't continue to do what he's doing for longer. You can't change your pitching approach too much because he doesn't chase. If we look at 2025 there was a subtle shift further down and away, which seems counter-intuitive to a guy with his reach who hits the ball away regularly but maybe it worked and we'll probably see something like that again. Still I think the real question is stamina and conditioning. Wood is a big guy and in the traditional tall lanky guy aging into a bigger body. It's a conditioning issue he'll have his whole life. What we want to see is how he, and the new org, try to work through it.  At 23 I think seeing if it's just a young player getting into major league workload is the right move. Normal sized guys have the same issues. But the second half of this season could be telling on this front.  If it is something his body needs to work past it could mean a workload that sits at 140 games a year. But a maybe problem for 2027. For now the question is can he keep doing this and the answer for me is "yes, until proven otherwise" 

 

Abrams is a bit more of a unknown.  While he improved from 2022-2024 becoming a decent major league hitter, last year was a lateral move. He didn't improve and settled in as a guy hitting .260 with little patience and moderate power. Not bad, but certainly nowhere near MVP.  What changed? A lot more walks and better contact.  

The walks appear to be a bit of an him approach change - a bit more grip and rip like Wood - but mostly one from the other teams.  He's facing few pitches in the zone, likely in his settled clean-up role with a kid behind him, pitchers are choosing to face the next guy and Abrams is letting them. When he is getting his pitch he hitting it much better but he's not hitting it harder.  Instead he's hitting them... well right.  Hard and at the right angles for the best hits. But again he's not hitting everything harder.  He hasn't improved his angles all that much in general. This is what you'd expect in a sense. X % harder, X% better means something like X%*X% harder and better. But instead he's just having more of these particular good events. 

That leaves this more of a question and it doesn't help that he has a history of absolutely torrid stretches followed by long stretches of stinking. Hitting this well isn't new for him. Hell he's hit better, though for not as long. Hitting well for multiple months isn't new either - he started last year well.  It's sustaining through a full season that would be new and with no real evidence anything has changed if you gave me a dollar I'd bet on some decent regression here. Guys who hit this well in terms of power usually hit the ball a little harder. The saving grace for Abrams is well he's 25 and at this age you get better sometimes. 

 

If Abrams can't maintain MVP status that doesn't mean he's no good, but it does mean to maintain "maybe best offense in baseball" pace that covers for pretty questionable pitching, the other guys will have to pick things up.  Can they? 

Tuesday Quickie : Ok we're here

It's Memorial Day weekend and we're going to be looking at guys with the idea that what we're seeing could be real. Which means, by proxy, we're going to be looking at the Nats with the idea what we're seeing could be real and that means .500 could be real. 

To be fair this all basically hinges on two players. CJ Abrams and James Wood have been two of the Top 10 offensive players in baseball this year.  If the Nats have two MVP candidates in their lineup then .500 is possible because the rest of the lineup isn't great - but it's good enough. And the pitching isn't good - but it's not bad enough to make a team with a two-MVP offense a loser. And more importantly the pitching has been healthy.  That may not seem like much but when the pitching is not good, the pitching behind it is usually pretty bad. The Nats starters have all made 11 starts this year. The carefully controlled Nats relief core has five guys with 15 or more appearances. The dam is leaky and worrisome but has not broken. 

While we dive deeper into all of this that's the basic truth.  The Nats, who as a random chance thing should be lucky to have one, have two of the best players at the plate this season. The rest of the squad just has to be average ish and that's pretty much what they are (except for Nunez) for that offense to sing. The pitching just has to be not as bad as the offense is good to get to .500. That's the balance they are maintaining right now.

Crews up House down and other things

While the Nats have been pretty relatively successful this season so far at the plate , they are not sitting on their laurels. Yesterday they officially sent Brady House down and optioned Joey Weimer to make room for Dylan Crews and Andres Chaparro to come up.  Why?  Well sort of because Jacob Young got hit by a pitch. 

On Monday Jacob Young took a pitch to the ribs. It was apparently pretty bad and he's nursing some bruised ribs. Jacob defensively is the glue that holds the OF together. Lile, although showing a little better this year, is not seen as a great defender. Wood, despite that speed shown off by his inside the park HR, is just bad. Young is one of the better CF in the game and can help compensate for these issues a bit, important for a team already struggling with defense. The Nats 4th OF had been Joey Weimer but he's no CF so the Nats had to dig into the minors. 

Crews is the guy they WANT to be here as a star and he is generally seen as a gifted fielder. After a slow start in the minors, he was hitting much better over the past few weeks - something close to .300 / .370 / .525.  The warning signs of a ton of Ks and limited BBs are still there but he'd only have to keep this up for a week or two more for you to really start thinking about giving him another shot.  Fate made that shot now. Joey Weimer had gone the other way hitting .160 in limited at bats with no homer since April 22nd.  He was always a long shot to be good so this was an easy call. 

But what about House and Chaparro?  That's a little harder to figure. House had not turned the corner this season so far, but he had been better especially in the power department. But he still wasn't swinging well, relying on just swinging hard and the occasional right guess to keep production up.  To make matters worse he was a big negative in the field, a surprise after last years modest performance. So you could see the reasoning behind sending him down.  Let the new org AAA guys get a better look at him and see if they can get him swinging better and his mind back on his glove. The problem is there really isn't a great replacement.  Chaparro was doing modestly well in AAA and is historically just passable at fielding. The must have really wanted House down to send him down because Chappy up is just a roster move. 

 There is of course the specter of roster time manipulation here. If you ARE going to have guys down, teams try to do it in a way that earns them an extra year of cheap service.  If you look at it broadly it rarely matters - they are manipulating guys that usually don't end up stars so any money saved is minimal - but all it really needs is to matter one time. Again - not my money, and they can afford to spend whatever given appreciation of sales prices, so don't do this - but I'm trying to hold back the tide here. And more importantly we don't know if this is how it's going to end up. 

 

In general though I like the moves in a "we're not just running on auto-pilot, let's see what we can do" type of thinking. It's a shame that didn't extend to off-season pitching acquisitions. 

 

 

Friday Quickie : Before you get ahead of yourself

The Nats have been mediocre or worse since COVID (unrelated... OR IS IT) and this year feels different. The young bats are improving to the point you think the line-up can keep the Nats competitive for the season and with some pitching luck... Look we're not talking playoffs here but .500? Or at least best record since 2019? 

But before you take a close to .500 record as a sign of things being different let's remember

2025 :  June 6th the Nats were 30-33.

2024 : June 23rd the Nats were 38-39 

2021 : June 30th the Nats were 40-38 

Starting decently does not guarantee anything other than this team isn't going to be an under 60 win historic loser like the 2022 squad. 

We're edging closer and closer to real evaluation time in terms of stats, but as these season records show us things can go any which way for entire teams let alone players. Hell the very first Nats season - where they surprisingly had a huge NL East lead around July 4th only to finish .500 - should have told you that. Then again I guess you'd have to be at least in your late 20s to have learned that lesson.  

Even if the Nats are closing in on the All-Star Break around .500 there are no promises for a team that doesn't have a history of winning, that's dependent on kids with only a couple seasons of 150+ game rigors under their belt, and an organization with little depth to deal with injuries and a likelihood to want to make some late season trades with an eye to the future. 

Enjoy the .500 but don't expect the .500.