Who is Daylen Lile? What is Daylen Lile? HOW is Daylen Lile?

Daylen Lile is hot right now.  He's been up almost half a year and is closing in on 300 PA.  in that he's hit a solid .282 / .327 / .450 line and it's only been better in the second half .318 / .360 / .523. How excited should you be from a guy that probably entered 2024 the 6th Nationals outfielder to watch on some lists*

He's a legit prospect (2nd round pick) and while is isn't super young he's right in there with Wood and House which is frankly young enough for anyone that isn't a phenom. He seems to ID pitches well and makes great contact hitting a good deal of line drives. He's fast and can get that extra base from the balls he hits. He's good.

He's a mediocre fielder with a weak arm. He doesn't generate a lot of bat speed or barrel up the ball, and doesn't hit a lot of fly balls, so he doesn't generate a lot of "true" power, instead relying on legs for those XB.  Despite IDing pitches well he seems impatient late in counts and is not working his way on base like he should. He's not amazing. 

I'd be pretty excited for Lile in that it's always good to have as many good players as you can and Lile, seems good. The general track - HS star - legit prospect - solid minor league stats - is what you hope to see from your best prospects. He has all the skills, he seems to be using them.  That he isn't a great fielder shouldn't be an issue but with Young not hitting at all and Crews taking a slow path to being a starter, it matters a little. If you ever have to pull Crews from CF you can't just shift him or Wood over. 

It's seemingly clear that the power for 30 homers seasons isn't there.  It's not his major league level nor really how he hits in general. That was always true but you project out some for kids. He just isn't getting to that projection. But 15-20 seems reasonable and if he's hitting .280+ that's almost good enough. 

Really it comes down the the walks.  By all accounts his eye is good and in the minors he did take his share of free bases. I'm not exactly sure why he isn't in the majors right now - could be a bunch of things - but the answer is NOT his eye isn't good with major league stuff. It is. So it's a question of choice it seems and if he chooses to be a little more patient and you have a guy getting on base .350+ well then - that's a player.  

Half a season is half a season but Lile has the skill set available to him to be a solid major leaguer. The contact bat looks to be there now (but we'll have to see over a full year next year), the speed is there, the eye needs to follow because the glove and power likely won't**.  That'll likely be the difference between Lile being a nice 3rd/4th OF type and a solid starter.  Of course maybe he'll just hit .320 instead of .280, or and then we don't care about the eye anymore

 *lists that didn't read my takes on Elijah Green 

 **Yeah the power looks ok but legged out triples are a LOT more like doubles imo. I feel a lot of run production stats over count for triples.

Monday Quickie - What's wrong?

 ok yes everything but nothing has gone right for this squad since early June.  At one point they were 30-33, then went on a 20-53 stretch.  The last 5-1 brings it up to 25-54 which is just over a 50 win pace for a season. Yikes. 

You can't blame the firings - Davey and Rizzo were gone in the middle of this. You can't blame the trade deadline. Yeah it made the team weaker but they aren't losing squeakers because of a weakened pen.  Here are some 2nd half splits 

Brady House .225 / .224 / .292 (1 walk!) 

Jacob Young .223 / .284 / .287

Dylan Crews .206 / .299 / .294

James Wood .207 / .289 / .328 

CJ Abrams .225 / .281 / .376

Jake Irvin 8.86 ERA 1.848 WHIP

Mitchell Parker 7.63 ERA 1.603 WHIP

MacKenzie Gore 7.54 ERA 1.757 WHIP

 

This is your goddamn core and it's a group looking like it would have trouble winning in AAA as opposed to be what you build around.  

You can blame Gore's pitching on injury and Young / Parker / Irvin on never really being good (and thus not being an overly critical part of the future) but the rest is very worrisome.  

James Wood is striking out at an alarming rate up from 28% to 40%.  

Dylan Crews remains unable to lift anything hitting over 50% of his balls into the ground. 

Brady House  is not walking and not making enough contact in general. 

 

I'm not sure what you do here but I think you have to clear out the remaining staff that Davey and Rizzo put here. It's not working. It's actively HURTING. 

Oh about Gore

Yeah I was only doing bats. Gore is the only arm that I think deserves talking about in terms of a long-term signing. I like Lord and Ferrer but relief pitching is notoriously fickle, neither of these guys is lights out (or likely to be that) so they just feel very replaceable and not something you gamble money on keeping past age 30.  As arms go Parker and Irvin are nothing to hold on to. I mean I guess if they want to be REAL reasonable and sign for cheap so they don't have to move... 

 You can wonder about Cavalli who was supposed to be good and who has looked good since coming back from injury but that last part puts a damper on the whole thing.  He's just back. Now's not the time to double down on the arm. Let's see it last through a whole season first. 

 So Gore, I think you do try to sign him. I think he's a weak #1 but a #1 regardless, even given recent struggles. But he's also on a collision course with getting paid way too much for what he's done. So... I don't know if it gets done. I don't know if a fair offer, or even a moderate overpay gets you Gore. But where do you get pitching then? 

 Susana and Sykora both look fairly strong but you are looking at... 2028 before you are counting on them to be good? And the only thing less reliable that FA pitching are pitching prospects. 

 So much hinges on this and you have to get it right. Trading for Gio, the first Stras extension, the Scherzer FA contract. All hits. The team soars. The signing of Corbin (post-2019), the second Stras contract. Huge misses. The team crashes. 

 Sigh... this one isn't as easy but I still lean toward making a good faith effort to sign him. Not a Wood "pay the man what he wants" but an above market deal now. And if he refuses so be it. Treat him like a key piece but not the only piece. You expect to win with Gore, but not to have Gore carry you. I think that's right. 

Who to sign long-term

You can win in several ways in baseball but the current hotness is to "rebuild" sign a bunch of your young players while they are young so they don't cost as much and hope that if you sign 6 that 2 work out and money wise that still probably saves you enough money to spend on FA. 

Of course because people LOVE to go into the comments to say "It's not up to the Nats..." "Scott Boras won't let them..." I'll note here that what we want to see is a concerted and public effort to make these signings. If the public part bothers the players so be it. The fans need to know the team is trying in good faith.  So shutta ya traps! 

 Let's look at the bats 

James Wood

Pros : He's so young! He's so good!

Cons : He's so expensive (relatively) because he's already good. 

Decision : Sign him dummies. If you aren't trying with guys like Wood then what's the point honestly. Call yourselves the Potomac Pirates, the Rockville Rockies and be done with it. 

CJ Abrams

Pros : He plays the IF, is fun to watch, and is clearly the second best bat on the team right now. Still plenty of time until he hits FA (2029) so you can get value

Cons : From reports attitude can go up and down. Plays SS but pretty poorly. 

Decision : Could go either way. I think you need to get either him or House signed though. 

Dylan Crews 

Pros : Nearly everything about his fancy stats and college performance suggest the guy has star potential. Getting comfortable in the OF where he should be good. Super fast. So seems like there'd be a place for him even without a bat. 

Cons : Always had great fancy stats and lacking actual stats.  

Decision : Wait probably. I think the discrepancy between performance and potential will create too big a gap between what the Nats should offer and what Crews would take. But check-in. 

Brady House 

Pros :  He's already a solid fielder in the IF and there's a lot to like about his swing. Good runner.  

Cons : He's a bit too much of a free swinger and needs to strike out less if he's not going to walk more or else that average/OBP will hang on him

Decision : I'd probably go with him first over Abrams just because an IF that can field that might hit strikes me as slightly better than an IF that can hit that will never field. But I'd like them both to be honest. 

Robert Hassell

Pros : if you look at the fancy stats you could argue he's a better Brady House right now. Good field, slightly better approach and swing, faster. Seemingly finally coming around. 

Cons : The biggest difference between House and Hassell is the 2 year gap. Hassell HAS to come around now or might not ever.  Also a big difference is Hassell plays OF where the Nats have choices and it's easier to stick a FA. House plays IF.  Even if Hassell is coming back one injury derailed him for 2 1/2 years. What happens the next time?

Decision : I've always liked Hassell but I'm a realist here if you can get him for reasonable 4th OF money, sure try it. If he wants more pass bc I worry one more injury makes him a big nothing. 

Daylen Lile 

Pros : Young and holding his own in the majors at the plate for a couple months. If not a OBP machine, at least it patient at the plate. Hits a lot of nice line drives and balls up. 

Cons : Not great in the OF, probably the least "prospecty" of your choices. It's not like the team is lacking in young OF that you gotta nail this one down. 

Decision : Pass.  Prove me wrong Daylen 

Anyone Else? 

Nunez can't hit and isn't that young. Tena can't field and is mediocre at the plate. Lipscomb is overmatched. Young is an excellent fielder but is showing regression at bat and is an non-intuitive baserunner. Garcia is an average hitter and can hold 2B who flashes some good hitting stretches. 

Decision : If you can get Garcia down through age 30 or so, I'd do it. One of the things teams do is find ways to cheaply not have problems and Garica at 2B isn't a problem. I think he probably will be as he ages out though and he doesn't have the bat to be 1B or DH so you don't want him here forever but if you can not think about 2B through 2030, even if it's just as "could be worse" I think that's good.  Young and Tena are worth carrying around but only bc you can do it for the minimums. I wouldn't pay for it past into FA. 

No Mo Lowe

The Nats brought up Dylan Crews today, back from injury and ready to get some more at bats.  To clear a roster spot they didn't cut 32 year old signed for a single year Josh Bell, who is hitting average from the DH spot. They didn't cut 31year old, well he can field if he can literally do NOTHING else, signed for a single year Paul DeJong.  They didn't cut 29 year old, never was catcher Riley Adams who doesn't do anything well.  Instead they cut 29 year old Nathaniel Lowe, who before this year was a solid bat and solid glove and the combination in a weak generation of first basemen, put him as a Top 10 player at that spot. 

Lowe has had a terrible year taking tremendous steps backward in every facet of the game.  Worse he's been worse recently. It's easy to see why the Nats cut him...yet

 At a decent contract for next year and with a long track record of decent play and an age that questions whether this is really a fall from playable to out of the game or just a very bad very long stretch, and we three better choice I'm not sure it was the right move. 

You hear a lot of cheering from Nats fans though, taking this as a bold move showing they aren't going to hold on to bad players but again, Bell is a DH barely hitting average, DeJong should be retired, Adams should be AAA organizational depth. They have other bad players they aren't cutting. This can't be what this is really about. 

It's not about bad players but about space. They need a place to rotate all these young bats and it won't be backing up the infield where DeJong is and it won't be at C where Adams it.  It will be at 1B/DH and if you have to choose between Bell and Lowe... well I can see choosing Bell. He's a well-loved teammate and maybe you bring him back next year to fill a LH bat and well maybe you just like him better.  And you really can't cut Adams with Ruiz hurt...

But it's also about space for next year I guess. Lowe would be at 1B and maybe they are already thinking about where to put everyone, or moving Wood over to DH/1B or something or trying Yohandy out there. So if that's the case, if we see a kid at 1B next year, ok then I get it.  But if it's just Bell shifted over in 2025 or another cast-off then I don't. 

Call Forwarding

 Alex Call was the last domino to fall - over to the Dodgers for a couple arms. As noted before Call was actually turning out to be good but if there was one place the Nats didn't have space for a player like Call it was OF where they want to play Wood and Crews and cycle through whoever else they want to look at.  Keeping a 4th OF is a luxury on a team like that. 

 

Sean Paul Liñan was a solid looking arm for High A that the Dodgers pushed to AAA to see if they had something really special. They didn't - he got hammered. Basically he has one GREAT pitch but everything else is lacking right now.  That's enough to dominate lower level hitters and get punished by better ones. But still a 20 year old with promise and a nice get. 

Eriq Swan is Elijah Green the pitcher.  He seems super athletic and can easily throw the ball up near 100 MPH. Can he control it? Nope. Is his pitch super unhittable for being that fast? Not to the level you'd want to see at his level. You are just kind of hoping things come together. That wouldn't be bad if he were 19 but he'll be 24 as the post-season closes and is not quite getting it done in High A.  Here's to miracles, I guess. 

Pretty good haul for not having anything to give away, and by that I mean you got two guys in Ronny Cruz and Sean Paul Liñan that have an outside chance to turn into good major leaguers and a guy in Christian Franklin with a decent chance to have more than a cup of coffee. Is the likely outcome nothing of import? Of course. But I'll take this. 

More importantly I'll take not trading Gore. Now spend in this off-season  

Trades Trades Trades

 I did go on vacation again, yes.  I also will again the second week in August. 

 The Nats have begun their sell-off and it's mostly gone exactly as you could hope 

 Chafin and Garcia and Soroka out. 

Chafin was found money, a DFA'd player who turned it around for the Nats and ended up part of a deal. Soroka didn't pan out exactly as planned but the fact he was sent out for anything means his signing was a win.  Luis Garcia is at least a decent arm with the potential to have a great couple months, but is 38 and not part of the future. 

This does gut a pitching staff that was put together with string and bubble gum but hey, you apes want to live 2025 forever?  

What's the returns?  From my take on best to worst

Ronny Cruz - the type of lottery ticket you want to get. decently high draft MI pick that's super young and has looked ok so far. Talent heavy but this is for Mike Soroka remember. 

Christian Franklin - reads like the type of player the Nats have avoided. IOW good baseball instincts. He's a smart runner, makes good reads in the outfield, has patience at the plate. If he could just hit a few more flyballs and get that average and power up he'd be a solid player. Alas at 25 that ship has likely sailed. But seems like a good guy to have around 

Jake Eder - a college starter that basically stalled out in AA after injuries that is being looked at now in the majors as a reliever. Not impressive so far but a live arm so whatever. 

Sam Brown - a first baseman/corner OF with no power or patience? organizational depth

 

MORE TRADES

Finnegan GONE! He's ok, but even the Nats knew he couldn't really be counted on. Will be missed in the continuing non-literal decimation* of the pen. Who's coming in in relief? Maybe you!

 Coming in is Josh Randall and RJ (not Randall Josh) Sales  

Josh Randall - live arm you take a gamble on. Just move to A+ and had a great start but while he strikes out a lot he's not unhittable. Arm seems dependable and strong. Kind of guy in a year you'll see if he can be a reliever. The better lottery ticket here. 

RJ Sales - competent college pitcher at 18. Hard to get a good read on as a hitter which really limits his hits and homers but doesn't miss enough bats and walks way too many. In A ball now at 22, looked better on the wildness overall but was slipping recently.  

 

What's next? 

 I wouldn't trade Gore. Not unless you want to set the timeline on (maybe) being good again at 2028.  The Nats can be good (wild card level) next year. They have an ace. They have a stud bat. They have a good 2nd bat. Pieces are there. What they need is investment, not starting over.  

 

*It's literally worse!