Offseason Position Discussion : SP

2024 was a pleasant surprise for the Nats in terms of the SP as while Gore didn't develop as he should, Trevor Williams pitched like a near ace for the third of the season he was healthy and Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, and DJ Herz all surpassed expectations.  Yes, that only meant they were all "usable" but a staff of an near ace, a stretch 2, and three average arms is pretty good, especially on a shoestring budget

So the Nats basically pushed to repeat the year with FA pick up Michael Soroka taking the place of the injured DJ Herz. It would be a stretch sure if all these guys did the same but Gore should be better and if we got a "one better, one same, one worse" from the rest that wouldn't be bad at all. 

Of course with all these guys going over expectation it was probably more reasonable to expect "one same, one worse, one much worse" but I'm not an optimist. Anyway

1) Gore was NOT better. At least not for the whole year.  He was much better early on but wear and tear and the eventual  injuries seemed to knock him back down to average again.

2) Irvin and Parker were both much worse. As was Williams but at least Williams was starting from "ace" which left him as just a guy (who also had some bad luck to counter his good luck in 2024) 

Soroka was basically what you wanted but given the SP took about three steps back he wasn't the final piece but maybe their second best arm? Adding insult to injury the Nats made a questionable signing from Japan in soft tosser Shinnosuke Ogasawara who promptly was as bad as everyone thought he'd be. 

If you are looking for some good news . Brad Lord looked very competent stretched into the starting role for half the year while Andrew Alvarez and Cade Cavalli both had September that suggest they might be able to hang in the majors.  

Presumed Plan : 

I'll guess now Gore, Lord, Cavalli, ?, ?.  The money is on Josiah Gray getting first crack at it in the "ok we're not Mike Rizzo's staff. Can we do something here" way.  Foster Griffin, from Japan, who has at least always excelled at keeping the ball in the park is likely 5 but that's more an open spot for whatever impresses. 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Nats aren't competing next year.  They are looking at what they have while likely trying to show case some of what's here with a clock already started.  Gore might be moved, but he's a pitcher who shows best when healthy and you are usually healthy to start the year. You might get a better deal waiting a couple months and having Gore throw some ace like numbers out there.  

 

Behind Gore it's literally just "I don't know this" With Cavalli the closest thing to an interesting arm you want to see.  The season is mostly about him and Jarlin Susana who could make his debut.  

My Take : 

They should sign someone. Yeah yeah "we need to look at these guys".  You know at least the base of what you have.  An oft-injured #1 a couple young guys fairly close to injury comebacks, a guy who you are rolling the dice on from Japan, and a guy who's never pitched a complete season before.  Unless you want to kill your bullpen you need someone to soak up innings.  Miles Mikolas. Chris Paddack.  Someone your expectation is that they throw 150 innings, not your hope. 

 Beyond that I personally like Gore and like to see a guy who has ace stuff even if he doesn't throw it all the time.  Gives a reason to tune in. So I hope they don't trade him but I expect they will. Could be tomorrow could be at the deadline. 

And the rest is just whatever. This isn't a team with a plan it feels like. Instead it's a team using this year to figure out what the plan is.  

 

Offseason Position Discussion : DH

Josh Bell returned to the Nats as a cheap DH option for 2025 to bridge the gap between competitiveness and not. A well-liked vet who had a couple of quietly solid years with the Nats in 2021 and 2022 Bell had bounced around unable to get back to levels you want a guy focused on hitting to be at. The reunion looked very dicey as Bell started extremely slow and followed up a good May with a terrible June. But Josh's second half was better and he ended the season very hot putting up a .292 average with 6 homers in the last month. 

All in all it wasn't a failure for the Nats at the position, but in the plan that he was a bridge player as the Nats enter 2026 more unsure than entering 2025.  Bell himself is off to play in Minnesota leaving the Nats looking for a replacement. Lile and Wood both spent time at DH as the Nats rotated in OFs to get ABs. 

Presumed Plan : 

???? Sign someone I guess? 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

The Nats would prefer to see if Wood and/or Lile can hang in the outfield. More value lies there. So while either of them could end up there by September designating them a DH to start the year is unlikely. The team has no obvious options staring them in the face so it's hard to come up with the presumed plan. which could range from letting kids get hacks to doing a rotating OF situation where the DH is a rest spot to signing just a guy to fill the role. Since the new Nats management has to do SOMETHING one assumes, grabbing a veteran bat late feels like the most reasonable option 

My Take : 

Internally, there are lots of bad options from the "Better to keep in AAA and see if they are something first" Yohandy Morales and Harry Ford to the "but he can't really hit" use of any of the kids that might be on the bench this year like Robert Hassell and Jacob Young. It's hard for me to believe the team would move in this direction just to save a few bucks.  If they do, god save the fan. 

 

I also think the Wood/Lile situation will force one of them to DH at some point in the next 1-2 years but which one is a question that needs to be answered and only can be by putting them both in the OF. This makes sense and while I'm not against setting one of these guys at DH to start the year, I think it's more prudent to settle everything first.  

 

So we end up here - signing another Josh Bell to see what you can get. There are two minds about this for me - well three but I don't think they are actually going to sign a good bat (1) sign a guy that WAS good that can possibly teach the kids something.  Paul Goldschmidt? Cutch! That seems to be about it as Carlos Santana is still good and other guys are past their selling date.  I talked about Luis Arraez back when discussing first base, I guess he'd fit here too.  (2) Sign someone in their 20s and see what happens. Eloy Jimenez is the big name the former can't miss guy that did ok and has been on a career walk-about the past couple of years. Will Brennan looks to be a AAA hitter but that's more than you can say for some of these guys. No great choices but you are aiming for someone who will come to DC for cheap to have a chance. 

 

I don't care really. Assuming they aren't in it to do anything this is a stop gap player.  I like the last two names better just because if you find a lottery ticket maybe you can keep the money but whatever. Just do something a major league organization would do.  

Monday Quickie - Back on the horse

The holidays are over and it's time to get serious. 

But what does that mean? 

For the Nats we still don't know. After the trade of Jose Ferrer for Harry Ford the Nats made two moves. 

1) Traded Jake Bennett for Luis Perales.  This was a "good prospect for good prospect" trade where the Red Sox looking for a certain type of pitcher, were willing to give up a good prospect of their own. Perales is arguably "more certain" than Bennett - younger, closer to the majors and both missed 2024 with injuries - but we all know not to take that too seriously for pitching prospects.  

This doesn't really tell us anything about the Nats management mindset

2) Signed Foster Griffin. This is a chance on a guy that had a great pedigree a decade ago, but he never really clicked as a starter in the majors. Muddled through a bit of relief for a couple of teams and their AAA affiliates, before heading to Japan to reset himself as a starter. It worked so now he comes back presumably in that role. He doesn't give up homers, but he doesn't fool many people either and his control is here and there. It's not 100% clear that combination can hang in the majors - really depends on how many of those balls in the park are hits. A great defense would help and I'm not sure the Nats have one... but maybe they could with some shifts toward that. Nunez at SS.  Not having Wood and Lile both in the OF.  But that's not been determined

Again not really telling us anything. 

 What are we looking for? A trade of a guy that could be / should be part of a winning Nats team in say 2027 - Gore/Abrams. Or a signing of someone that would be the same.  Some indication of whether this team is in for trying something the next couple year, or not. Once we see that we can set our expectations, not only for 2026 but 2027 and maybe 2028 as well 

Offseason Position Discussion : OF

As much as the infield is a mess of question marks and prayers, the OF for the Nats at least has some sense to it.  Building over the past few years of trades and drafts the Nats OF in 2025 ended as something that the team would like to carry for several seasons. 

James Wood followed up his fine half-season rookie campaign with a full season of solid baseball, making the All-Star team with a great first half before a second half swoon and focus on his weak defense knocked his season down a bit. Dylan Crews got his first extended taste of the majors and disappointed in an injury riddled season at the plate but not quite to the point where they had to give up on him. That's different than great defender Jacob Young who after an acceptable 2024 at the plate was handed a spot only to swing his way out of it.  But that, and Crews injury, left the door open for Daylen Lile to play a lot and he responded knocking line drives all over the place in the second half of the year.  

In addition Robert Hassell got a decent amount of playing time too but didn't hit, and Alex Call DID hit but at 30 didn't feature into the Nats future plans and was sent over the the Dodgers in a late season trade.  

Presumed Plan : 

Wood, Crews, and Lile start in the outfield and play there unless they are so bad the Nats are forced to make a change. Young sticks around at 4/5 to play late game D. and Hassell/someone else rounds out the bench. 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

This is what the Nats had been planning for. A top notch super young OF.  It isn't the exact set of players they would have expected - Hassell would have likely been in here as a starter not Lile. But you stack quantity and quality to get to this point. All these guys need more time to show what they really are. The only question is whether the defense suffers too much in this configuration. But that's not something you let hold this back. You figure the bats first. 

My Take : 

There's no issue here. This is what should be done and what will be done.  

 

I do worry about the defense. For all of Young's poor hitting he could field and Crews and him could make up for Wood's lack of range. With him out, Crews could be a superior defender but it's hard to ask his range to cover for both corners playing poorly. So you'd really like to see Wood and or Lile become average defenders. 

 

There is a lot to like here but also things to worry about.  Wood does almost everything right but that swing and miss percentage is terrible. Good thing he's got a good eye but it feels like maybe baseball could exploit this.  Crews has a weird situation where he should be better but his actual stats have never matched what his fancy stats say. Now granted the fancy stats in the majors eventually slid down closer to his performance but there still seems to be a gap. You think the regular stats will come up but that's not guaranteed.  Lile on the other hand swings a slower bat but hits everything right. But that's only one half-season.  It CAN work in the majors it's just that it's uncommon. 

Still you take the average path and one guy exceeds expectations, one guy hits it, and the last one is under? You have one very good or great player, and one starter. You take that. 

 

As for the 4th/5th I don't really care. I think you need a solid defender and Young is that but so is Hassell if they want to go that route for a year. 

 

One last thing is that the D could cause Wood or Lile to end up at DH while Young/Hassell/etc end up as the 3rd OF but for now I think they get a chance to prove they can't do it.  

Offseason Position Discussion : 3B

 

Gore still here? Ok we can move forward with this.  

2024 was a mess for the Nats at 3B.  They thought Trey Lipscomb who had an intersting end to 2023 might step in or for some reason known only to them, that never-was and clear never-would-be Nick Senzel might hold it down. These failed leaving Ildermo Vargas and Jose Tena manning the hot corner at the end of that year and leaving 2025 up in the air. 

The Nats responded by signing way too old Paul DeJong and his non-existant bat to pair with probably nothing Jose Tena. DeJong could still field but couldn't hit and being old he got hurt. Tena was nothing and again the Nats were scrambling having Amed Rosario play there until he was traded and former top prospect, now prospect of mild interest, Brady House got his chance. House also didn't hit but fielded ok making a nice failure bookend to the season

Presumed Plan : 

House plays 3B and they sign some trash FA to back him up.  Why assume they'll try something differently

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Unlike Lipscomb and Tena, House, if not as touted as he once was, is still a real prospect. He really did handle AAA last year in over 60 games and the team wants a good long look at him in the majors. Since he can field this is a pretty easy call as he's not going to be a huge hole like an all-bat 3B might be if he doesn't get it at the plate. 

 

The Nats don't seem to be taking on any major money and hope that House is here the whole year so it makes sense 3B will be whoever they pick up for the 2B/3B or SS back-up roles. 

My Take : 

It's a better position than they've been in since signing actual "might be good" Candelario years back. House can play 3B and maybe he can hit. The fancy stats read as a guy who swings pretty well but hasn't acclimated to major league pitching yet, which is standard fare for call-ups so we really won't know until this year if the issues (not IDing pitches well at all is the big one - too few walks too many Ks, not quite squaring up) will clear up with time and experience. Clearly you let him play and see what happens. 

It'd be nice to have an actual guy who can play everyday back him up but this team isn't going to pay "everyday" money to a guy not playing everyday if they are rebuilding again. So whatever. If anything happens to House (or any of the IF) this path will lead to months of terrible ball with no upside and one can hope they understand that and are looking to put a decent product on the field for the new admin's first year but maybe not. Probably not. 

Argh, I don't want to go through this all again.  

Pining for the F(j)ords

The Nats don't have a lot of good pitchers.  Gore yes. Brad Lord probably and... uhhh Cavalli likely, Beeter looks good... uhhh Henry?   Anyway Ferrer was a young lefty (and MAN they do NOT have a lot of lefties) with good fancy stats that I also liked. But they sent him away to Seattle for a catcher, Harry Ford. 

So first what does this signal? Rebuild... probably 

Ferrer is only 25 with plenty of team control. Given the Nats lack of LH relief he's the type of guy you keep around. Ford is a prospect still and several years younger than Ferrer. He's more the type you are planning on the next 10 years, not the next 5. However I will say Ford is basically major league ready with the bat so it's not like he is going to spend the next couple years in AAA. 

But that also means he's pushing Ruiz and everyone else out (sorry Millas!) which again is very "rebuild" coded. 

 

Second is Harry Ford any good?  As a hitter yeah probably.  As a catcher... 

 As a hitter the guy has got a GREAT eye and the question is how good can the bat be and in what way. It seems like he could hit for power. It seems like he could hit for avearge. He's one of those "fast" catchers who will run well and steal bases early in their career. If it all comes together - unlikely but anything can happen -  super star! If one thing comes together - likely power - a solid player. If nothing does, still probably usable because of that eye. 

But this is all based around being behind the plate and there isn't a strong consensus if that will happen. He excels at parts of the game, fielding in front of the plate, strong arm, but lags behind in, you know, the CATCHER, parts of being a catcher. Still does that first part mean he could possibly move positions? Is this a Biggio situation where we see Ford at like 2B?  Hell the Nats also lack a 1B. 

I think they point is if he can hit - either for power or average or both (though again more likely power) then the Nats have a lot of options to find a place for him. Catcher if he can play it, 1B, DH, 2B if they want to move someone. If he can't hit - well you have to hope he gets better behind the plate because he can still have value as an average fielding catcher with a good eye. 

It's not a bad bet to take for the Nats as his ceiling is higher than Ferrer's but again it suggest the Nats are not going to worry about the next couple years. I think this may be the start of an exodus.  Let's see what the next 1-2 moves are though. 

Offseason Position Discussion : SS

It 2024 CJ Abrams flashed greatness, with a .295 7 homer April and hitting .373 / .464 / .663 in May earning him a trip to the All-Star Game and getting Nats fans excited about his potential. The only problem was... well... he might have been the worst fielding shortstop in baseball in years. 

The plan for 2025 was to start him at SS and hopefully watch him solidify his position as an MLB offensive star while playing some better defense.  This didn't quite happen. His 2025 at the plate mirrored his 2024 but with the highs and lows muted.  This left him above average at the plate but not close to stardom.  His fielding did improve but this just left him the worst fielding shortstop in baseball THIS year. Meanwhile Nasim Nunez flashed his incredible glove while putting up good enough offensive numbers leading Nats fans to wonder if a position shift is in order

Presumed Plan : 

Wide open but I'll say Abrams plays SS while Nunez enters super sub role. 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Nunez only played 24 games last year to add to his 23 in 2024. With that little time in the majors and very middling minor league batting stats, it's fair to wonder if he could in fact hit in the majors despite a very short impressive run late last year. 

Since you can't rely on Nunez to not be TERRIBLE at the plate yet you have to hold onto Abrams and let him see if he can improve his fielding with the new regime. Another player with questionable motivation the new organization will likely want a crack at a guy with super star potential to see if they can unlock it. 

 

And like in 2B comments, there are bigger fish to fry than an overall league average position.  

My Take :   

I don't buy Nunez at the plate and won't until I see him for half a season so I'm not very enthused to shift Abrams off SS.  But I do admit the logic in it and Nunez has to get that half a season at the plate somehow? Super sub can do it but a set position would be better.  

Abrams can be special so it seems likely to me that the new organization will want their own long look at him.  To me that means at SS first, but it's quite possible they've seen enough there. He is REALLY bad by all measures. He has no instincts which matters so much at SS. I mean he's so bad that HE'S the one that should be playing first, not Garcia. So if there's a position change that's where I probably lean. 

And a position change could be in order. Or a trade! Abrams is arbitration eligible and a free agent after 2028.  This year could up his value a lot OR it could set it at something lower if he just repeats 2025. That's the gamble. 

The way I see it Abrams' situation will tell us a lot about the Nationals new organization as a whole.  Are they in true evaluation mode trying to get THEIR feel of these guys? (Abrams at SS again)  Are they trying to optimize now (Abrams at 1B or DH even?) while they figure out the next steps?  Or are they ready to tear down what's here and look beyond 2028 (trade of Abrams) 

Me I'd prefer the second "optimize now and figure out if it's worth going for something in the next few years" so I guess I'd want to see Abrams moved off SS for whatever position (1B, DH, 2B?, 3B?) they choose not to deal with in 2026 while looking at other stuff.