How it went wrong

Teams rebuild all the time. If you aren't blessed with an owner willing to spend your team cycles through times when they spend more and times when they spend less based on the talent they have. What you don't do is rebuild from a rebuild. This is what the Nats are doing and it means one simple thing : 

The Nats screwed up. 

So the question is where and when and like many things that are wrong it's not just one moment, but a series of bad decisions and bad luck that lead them to this point. 

1) The Nats had a stretch of very bad drafts. 

 The Nats were never really known as a strong development team and their drafts were first pumped by the can't misses of Strasburg and Bryce, then by Rizzo's "all or nothing" strategy paying off with guys like Rendon and Giolito. But the strategy of all or nothing in a place like the draft usually gives you nothing and the Nats had very thin drafts and in the quest for a title that thin layer of talent from 2013-2016, Nick Pivetta, Dane Dunning, Jesus Luzardo, was the needed trade fodder. 

Still one decent player a year can hold a org up. But the 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2019 drafts were all terrible ones for the Nats. The 2018 one especially stands out with their first 3 picks and 6 of their first 7 never reaching the majors.  Leaving the Nats with the emptiest of coffers when time came to rebuild

2)  The Nats bet on the wrong horses / don't develop well.

You don't trade ALL your best talent and the Nats did keep guys around they liked. They ended up holding on to Austin Voth, Erick Fedde, Carter Kieboom, Seth Romero - guys that amounted to very little -while dealing guys that did something. How much of that is talent and how much development?  Who was asked for and who did the Nats say were off-limits?  We'll never know but they basically rolled snake eyes on the high draft picks kept around.

3)  The Nats got "unlucky" with the Strasburg signing

 In hindsight the way to go was to let both the oft-injured Strasburg and Rendon go and bet on keeping Trea and Max. That's hindsight.  In the moment the Nats felt (and the fans wanted) them to keep one or both of these champions. The Nats bet on Strasburg and lost. Of course if they bet on Rendon they would have likely lost too. Not much they could have done here but once you sign him he's one of your tent poles for the next half-decade. 

4) The Nats misread the COVID season.

A team not committed to just spending should always be prepared to rebuild as sports are fickle beasts and guys that hit .300 today might hit 250 tomorrow. The Nats though got caught flat-footed. Post Championship the Nats were looking to compete still. They had just signed Corbin and backed it up with a signing of Strasburg long term. You could see the wheels turning on how the next team would shape up.  Would it involve Max and Trea? Soto? Where would guys like Kieboom, Robles, Voth, and Luis Garcia fit in? 

Then 2020 happened and Stras barely pitched and Corbin was bad and Fedde wasn't progressing and Voth seemed outmatched and Robles regressed and Kieboom looked like he was dropped on a baseball field from an alien planet. Without Rendon the line-up wasn't good enough to carry the team. Surely this was just the weirdness of the COVID season. So the Nats didn't see a pitching staff that simply didn't exist anymore and didn't rebuild right then and there. Instead waiting a year and seeing what 2021 would bring

5) The Nats blew the Max/Trea trade along with several others in 2021 

Halfway through 2021 and obviously not a real contender anymore because the staff was basically just Max, the Nats decide to pull the trigger on the Max/Trea trade.  They sent them off to the Dodgers to get the core of the next great Nats team, potentially built around Juan Soto (but likely not).  In came a ton of minor leaguers headlined by two of the Dodgers top prospects in Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray. 

They were legit prospects but two mid Top 100, older for prospects, guys who were more likely to be contributors than stars. Still we don't know what the Nats were offered and you take the best you can. Perhaps this was it. But the best thing they got overall was Lane Thomas* and that's not the rebuilding core you expect to have after trading away what might be two HoFers (one in his prime with time left on the contract) and a bunch of useful pieces. Just whiff after whiff here

At this point, even though they would objectively nail the Soto trade, the Nats were done. That trade became all the Nats had to rebuild with. The 2020 draft and beyond weren't barren but they didn't produce the immediate talent you'd hope for heading into what they knew at the time would potentially be a rebuild.  Even the incredibly deep 2023 draft had the Nats with the #2 pick grabbing Crews who has developed perfectly well but also has not been impactful as six of the 12 players drafted immediately after him**. 

There was not a bunch of guys creating stars and filling in gaps. There was one - Brad Lord.  Maybe 2 if you count "defensive OF" which Jacob Young was. There maybe more coming but the timing for the rebuild when you give up in 2022 is to see a path forward in 2025, which they did. And see it start to come together in 2026, which it did not.

 

The Nats didn't see the issues of 2020 were real and long lasting and waited a half-season too long to begin the rebuild. Thanks to a traditionally weak drafting ability they didn't have the organizational depth to support the rebuild, creating very little talent while keeping the wrong guys. When tasked to begin the rebuild whiffed on a number of trades giving the Nats half the base they might expect and they couldn't find immediate impact guys in the draft or through international signings. 

Rizzo blew it. As a bad drafter who relied on big bets paying off but a decent trader, he needed to nail all the trades to set this up or get lucky again in the draft.  He didn't get lucky and he got the trades wrong at the worst time.  

 

 *Drew Millas was part of this group so I guess we can say the jury is still out. I guess.  

**and four of those were HS guys  

Monday Quickie - Abrams

I do have more to come but you know - snow storm .

So for today - what do you expect back for CJ Abrams. They don't HAVE to trade CJ but it seems EXTREMELY unlikely that they will be competitive in the time before he becomes a FA.  Are they going to be good enough to convince him to stay?  Do you take that chance instead of selling him on a decently high note with a couple years of control left?  The way I read the Nats management the answer is no. 

So what do you want back for him? What do you expect back for him?  

 If it's like Gore would you be happy with 2-3 prospects that are near the top of a middling minor league organization?  The quantity over quality approach?  Or are you wanting a more solid prospect.  A Top 100 type that you can at least point to as likely to be a major leaguer of some level than the lottery ticket approach.  Is there anyone else you are looking to sell? Luis Garcia seems like he could go.  Jacob Young? He doesn't quite have a place here if you love Daylen Lile.   

GOING... GOING... GORE!

To the Rangers for 5 prospects. 

 I'll delve into it more when we have the names but the Rangers system is weaker but in part due to injury and bad 2025s - which yes, I know but these guys can turn around pretty quickly.  

The name that is in there Gavin Fien, a guy that's arguably Top 2-4 in the Rangers system but also arguably outside the Top 100 overall. He is supposed to hit well and profiles to be a decent fielding 3B or a 1B/RF type (good enough glove to play SS in HS, not slow but probably not quick enough to be a major league SS).  But he's 18 and with 10 A-ball games under his belt a long way off. 

 Prepare to stink!  

https://www.mlb.com/news/mackenzie-gore-trade-to-rangers-from-nationals

 

 

UPDATE : 

Names already in.  We were never going to see Sebastian Walcott (their best prospect and a legit top one in baseball) but I was hoping to see some of the arms that looked good but had off years for reasons.  

Alejandro Rosario was one of them.  A real good arm but out until 2027.  Which is worse when he already missed all of 2025.  (He tried to wait out needed TJ surgery but it didn't work and he got it recently) That means he'll be throwing again after a full two years off and at age 25 not throwing in AA yet. But still one of the names I hoped to see. 

Devin Fitz-Gerald is a nothing IF. A kid but one that projects to have no pop and no one is raving about any of his other skills.  Will have to surprise.  

Yeremy Cabrera is another kid (under 20 last year) this one being all skills and hoping to see it translate into... something. The speed does work on the basepaths and he has a good eye but that's about it right now. That's not nothing but those are your complimentary skills. 

Abimelec Ortiz is a non-athletic (for baseball players - more athletic than us probably) 24 yo with pop but swings and misses a bit much and gets eaten alive by lefties. Maybe there's a platoon bat here, but probably not.

Offseason Position Discussion : RP

First I'd like to thank the Nats for doing next to nothing this off-season so we can get through all this without being interrupted.  Much appreciated

The Nats 2024 was a stop gap year in relief where they brought in some older guys they never meant to keep and traded out some assets at the end of the year. Outside of Kyle Finnegan and Jose Ferrer there wasn't much of a plan.  They signed a weaker set of guys in 2025 and hoped for the best.  It didn't happen. The Nats had arguably the worst relief pitching in basebal in 2025. 

Presumed Plan : 

Clayton Beeter and pray for rain?  If there's a place where "plan" is going to far, it's the bullpen where the Nats are going with a bunch of untested arms because why sign anyone? It doesn't matter! <insane laughter as fans go mad> 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

It's basically a given that the place you try to save money is in the pen.  You don't know how much you will use them. Guys can have weirdly good performances out of nowhere.  It makes sense if you feel the need to cheap out somewhere to do it there. The Nats have historically felt that way since riding out actual good pens very early in the "Strasburg Window".  

 

Of course that was Rizzo and it's possible the new management feels differently. So we don't know. But it does seem clear that money isn't going to be spent so why assume it would be spent here?  

My Take : 

Jesus Christ this could be bad.  They were the worst last year and right now they are putting no effort into making it better. 

From the comments some of you seemed resigned to a terrible team to the point where you are like "signing anyone would actually be a mistake!"  Stop that. That's owner talk.  They have money. They can make the team good here and there (another bat, another arm, a few more bullpen arms) and not block anyone. Playing bad kids isn't helping anyone. Playing a ton of cheap talent to "see what you have" is not to find something good but to pay people nothing for a year without getting yelled at. Yell.  

 If the Nats aren't going to try to be playoff worthy that's a decision I'll accept in the "that's what teams do" way.  But if they aren't going to try to be major league worthy - nah.  I'm not down for that. 

 Anyway sign a couple of real arms for the pen!  They need them!  Desperately!  

 

Offseason Position Discussion : SP

2024 was a pleasant surprise for the Nats in terms of the SP as while Gore didn't develop as he should, Trevor Williams pitched like a near ace for the third of the season he was healthy and Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, and DJ Herz all surpassed expectations.  Yes, that only meant they were all "usable" but a staff of an near ace, a stretch 2, and three average arms is pretty good, especially on a shoestring budget

So the Nats basically pushed to repeat the year with FA pick up Michael Soroka taking the place of the injured DJ Herz. It would be a stretch sure if all these guys did the same but Gore should be better and if we got a "one better, one same, one worse" from the rest that wouldn't be bad at all. 

Of course with all these guys going over expectation it was probably more reasonable to expect "one same, one worse, one much worse" but I'm not an optimist. Anyway

1) Gore was NOT better. At least not for the whole year.  He was much better early on but wear and tear and the eventual  injuries seemed to knock him back down to average again.

2) Irvin and Parker were both much worse. As was Williams but at least Williams was starting from "ace" which left him as just a guy (who also had some bad luck to counter his good luck in 2024) 

Soroka was basically what you wanted but given the SP took about three steps back he wasn't the final piece but maybe their second best arm? Adding insult to injury the Nats made a questionable signing from Japan in soft tosser Shinnosuke Ogasawara who promptly was as bad as everyone thought he'd be. 

If you are looking for some good news . Brad Lord looked very competent stretched into the starting role for half the year while Andrew Alvarez and Cade Cavalli both had September that suggest they might be able to hang in the majors.  

Presumed Plan : 

I'll guess now Gore, Lord, Cavalli, ?, ?.  The money is on Josiah Gray getting first crack at it in the "ok we're not Mike Rizzo's staff. Can we do something here" way.  Foster Griffin, from Japan, who has at least always excelled at keeping the ball in the park is likely 5 but that's more an open spot for whatever impresses. 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Nats aren't competing next year.  They are looking at what they have while likely trying to show case some of what's here with a clock already started.  Gore might be moved, but he's a pitcher who shows best when healthy and you are usually healthy to start the year. You might get a better deal waiting a couple months and having Gore throw some ace like numbers out there.  

 

Behind Gore it's literally just "I don't know this" With Cavalli the closest thing to an interesting arm you want to see.  The season is mostly about him and Jarlin Susana who could make his debut.  

My Take : 

They should sign someone. Yeah yeah "we need to look at these guys".  You know at least the base of what you have.  An oft-injured #1 a couple young guys fairly close to injury comebacks, a guy who you are rolling the dice on from Japan, and a guy who's never pitched a complete season before.  Unless you want to kill your bullpen you need someone to soak up innings.  Miles Mikolas. Chris Paddack.  Someone your expectation is that they throw 150 innings, not your hope. 

 Beyond that I personally like Gore and like to see a guy who has ace stuff even if he doesn't throw it all the time.  Gives a reason to tune in. So I hope they don't trade him but I expect they will. Could be tomorrow could be at the deadline. 

And the rest is just whatever. This isn't a team with a plan it feels like. Instead it's a team using this year to figure out what the plan is.  

 

Offseason Position Discussion : DH

Josh Bell returned to the Nats as a cheap DH option for 2025 to bridge the gap between competitiveness and not. A well-liked vet who had a couple of quietly solid years with the Nats in 2021 and 2022 Bell had bounced around unable to get back to levels you want a guy focused on hitting to be at. The reunion looked very dicey as Bell started extremely slow and followed up a good May with a terrible June. But Josh's second half was better and he ended the season very hot putting up a .292 average with 6 homers in the last month. 

All in all it wasn't a failure for the Nats at the position, but in the plan that he was a bridge player as the Nats enter 2026 more unsure than entering 2025.  Bell himself is off to play in Minnesota leaving the Nats looking for a replacement. Lile and Wood both spent time at DH as the Nats rotated in OFs to get ABs. 

Presumed Plan : 

???? Sign someone I guess? 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

The Nats would prefer to see if Wood and/or Lile can hang in the outfield. More value lies there. So while either of them could end up there by September designating them a DH to start the year is unlikely. The team has no obvious options staring them in the face so it's hard to come up with the presumed plan. which could range from letting kids get hacks to doing a rotating OF situation where the DH is a rest spot to signing just a guy to fill the role. Since the new Nats management has to do SOMETHING one assumes, grabbing a veteran bat late feels like the most reasonable option 

My Take : 

Internally, there are lots of bad options from the "Better to keep in AAA and see if they are something first" Yohandy Morales and Harry Ford to the "but he can't really hit" use of any of the kids that might be on the bench this year like Robert Hassell and Jacob Young. It's hard for me to believe the team would move in this direction just to save a few bucks.  If they do, god save the fan. 

 

I also think the Wood/Lile situation will force one of them to DH at some point in the next 1-2 years but which one is a question that needs to be answered and only can be by putting them both in the OF. This makes sense and while I'm not against setting one of these guys at DH to start the year, I think it's more prudent to settle everything first.  

 

So we end up here - signing another Josh Bell to see what you can get. There are two minds about this for me - well three but I don't think they are actually going to sign a good bat (1) sign a guy that WAS good that can possibly teach the kids something.  Paul Goldschmidt? Cutch! That seems to be about it as Carlos Santana is still good and other guys are past their selling date.  I talked about Luis Arraez back when discussing first base, I guess he'd fit here too.  (2) Sign someone in their 20s and see what happens. Eloy Jimenez is the big name the former can't miss guy that did ok and has been on a career walk-about the past couple of years. Will Brennan looks to be a AAA hitter but that's more than you can say for some of these guys. No great choices but you are aiming for someone who will come to DC for cheap to have a chance. 

 

I don't care really. Assuming they aren't in it to do anything this is a stop gap player.  I like the last two names better just because if you find a lottery ticket maybe you can keep the money but whatever. Just do something a major league organization would do.  

Monday Quickie - Back on the horse

The holidays are over and it's time to get serious. 

But what does that mean? 

For the Nats we still don't know. After the trade of Jose Ferrer for Harry Ford the Nats made two moves. 

1) Traded Jake Bennett for Luis Perales.  This was a "good prospect for good prospect" trade where the Red Sox looking for a certain type of pitcher, were willing to give up a good prospect of their own. Perales is arguably "more certain" than Bennett - younger, closer to the majors and both missed 2024 with injuries - but we all know not to take that too seriously for pitching prospects.  

This doesn't really tell us anything about the Nats management mindset

2) Signed Foster Griffin. This is a chance on a guy that had a great pedigree a decade ago, but he never really clicked as a starter in the majors. Muddled through a bit of relief for a couple of teams and their AAA affiliates, before heading to Japan to reset himself as a starter. It worked so now he comes back presumably in that role. He doesn't give up homers, but he doesn't fool many people either and his control is here and there. It's not 100% clear that combination can hang in the majors - really depends on how many of those balls in the park are hits. A great defense would help and I'm not sure the Nats have one... but maybe they could with some shifts toward that. Nunez at SS.  Not having Wood and Lile both in the OF.  But that's not been determined

Again not really telling us anything. 

 What are we looking for? A trade of a guy that could be / should be part of a winning Nats team in say 2027 - Gore/Abrams. Or a signing of someone that would be the same.  Some indication of whether this team is in for trying something the next couple year, or not. Once we see that we can set our expectations, not only for 2026 but 2027 and maybe 2028 as well