No seriously. Now what?
There's little reason to keep doing what we'd normally be doing at this tim - popping in on the Nats Spring Training stats and stories, checking out the same for other teams, patiently waiting for real baseball to start. Real baseball won't start (if we are very lucky) for another month.
So again, now what?
I mean we'll keep our ear to the ground to monitor the baseball news, but I'm sure you'll hear about that elsewhere. And we'll keep a closer eye on the Nats health specifically and how that may effect things - though it's kind of a big mystery right now when you don't know exactly when the season will start and you REALLY don't know how bad the illness is striking people. God let's hope we're not here ever discussing the ripple effect of a death on the NL East race.
Shut it down? Deep dive into minutia for no reason? Ask Me Anythings? What would you like to see?
Please keep posting! The rest is up to you.
ReplyDeleteI'd be down for a Harper AMA.
ReplyDeleteWhen you first started the blog, did you envision it being a friends only thing or did you want to grow it from the beginning.
Harper, you’ve been (quite reasonably) banging the drum that the extra innings pitched in the 2019 playoffs by three of the Nats very most important players - Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin - are likely to have negative effects on the 2020 season. This is always true for pitchers - more innings pitched portend more pitcher injuries - but those three Nats are more vulnerable than most because one is old (Scherzer) and there’s reason to think the other two are higher-than-average injury risks. I know it would amount to spitballing on your part, but I’m curious if the Coronashutdown mitigates your concerns somewhat. The three pitchers are now likely (1) to get more rest between the end of the postseason and the start of the 2020 season; (2) to pitch fewer innings in 2020; and (3) to need to be healthy over a shorter time period in 2020. These seem like possibly significant benefits that are Nats-specific in the sense that no other team pushed their (plausibly vulnerable) pitchers as hard or for as long as the Nats did in 2019.
ReplyDeleteDuring the hiatus, I would like to see an in-depth (several columns/weeks) look at the farm system. What talent do we have? What are the strategies to draft/recruit players who will be successful a few years from now.
ReplyDeleteConsider: On the one hand, we know that a lot of talent has been shipped out in trades and that our farm system isn't rated highly compared to other teams. Yet, we are supposed to have the best scouts in the business and our GM is a second generation baseball scout...and what they have done with the big-league team is impressive.
Or said another way...since the short-term doesn't contain much news and is likely to be depressing for fans...let's focus on the future that we can hope for/dream about.
Anon - I have a pet theory that shortened seasons lead to 300 W careers because of the time off*. Any long term time off like another 2 months would make me feel pretty good about them coming back though it's obviously different being pushed then having time off vs just a regular season then time off. I'll look at some data here.
ReplyDelete*Check out the breakdowns of 300 W pitchers. They are grouped a bunch that are like mid 60s to mid 80s (catching the 81 strike) and a group from mid 80s to mid 00s (catching the 94 strike) - of course they hit the break at different points in the career - toward the end for the first group, in the middle for the second. But there's gotta be something here right? This feels way too coincidental
Outside of these two groups you get into more 4 man rotations and Spahn did have war years off. Grove is the only modern pitcher to hit 300 with no work stoppage
Other Anon - the farm isn't my forte - I usually only know the top 10-20 guys at any time. Could be a good time for a Q&A with someone that does know.
ReplyDeleteI'd be all for some epidemiological discussion as well. Most of us are soulless automatons and are drawn to baseball for it's stats-heavy nature. So, despite the morbidity, I'm actually personally intrigued by the coronavirus while I sit here "working" from home. We're not dealing with SSS like in baseball anymore!
ReplyDeleteHow about a comment evaluating Rizzo's major trades and/or free agency decisions.
ReplyDeleteYou've done it before. My off-the-cuff take is that Rizzo gets it right 70% of the time. What do the numbers say.
Hey Harper, how about movie reviews as you do in the offseason holidays?
ReplyDeleteI'd also be interested in an overview of baseball Sabre metrics . I still don't quite understand a lot of those stats and how much to rely on them.
ReplyDeleteSo, I think by movie reviews above what I'm basically getting at is- what else is good to watch on TV? We don't watch much TV and I know there are about a billion new streaming shows and the streaming services even do their own movies now. So, what's good to watch?
ReplyDeleteCP - Public Health Stats Talk! That's my JAM!
ReplyDeleteWell first off I can tell you that the CDC number for total cases is almost certainly low. Unless the cases are heavily clustered among the old (and I only know of the one nursing home) or you believe the US is particularly bad at keeping people alive we should see a larger case load for that death number. 3000K+ and of course that is for the number dead today. That will only rise suggesting that is is higher than that number as well. I won't guess beyond "definitely more than 3K" but that;'s a given. While some number of the number not identified are self-quarantining (bc they are sick and responsible, or bc they are isolated with someone who is a case) it's doubtful that they all are meaning some number are out there spreading the virus. Which means we will also certainly see a final number notably higher than the 3K. Indentification is key here so the faster we get reliable quick testing available done at the local level the faster this will level off.
After this we get into conjecture which we can do but with the understanding it's just that.
ND - I can do that. I feel like it's been broached before but what else are we doing here? I'd guess about the same. Rizzo is a pretty cautious trader. He doesn't lose many.
Chas - Does this mean re-watching Christmas movies or finding Spring Hallmark movies to watch because it can go either way.
I've thought about actually doing the latter in some sort of video way bc I think there are still a lot of people who don't 100% get it but the stats crowd has mostly moved on from explaining things. However I don't see how I have the time for that. So I should probably give up and do blog posts.
What's your take on the three batter minimum for relievers -- in general for baseball and specifically for the Nats? How will it impact this season, and how will it change the game over time?
ReplyDeleteWhose cover of All Along The Watchtower is more ridiculous: that of The Dave Matthews Band? Or that of U2?
ReplyDelete(No point asking Dusty. He has the Hendrix version playing on a loop in his hearing aid.)
P.S. You did say "Ask me anything."
ReplyDeleteHarper, longtime reader but first-time poster. Thank you for doing this: I’ve been a fan for years and especially enjoyed savoring the championship with you and your outstanding readers. This is a wonderful community and I thank you.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if you can at some point assess how Martinez is progressing as a manager. As with many of us I have at times been anxious with the game in his hands but he did win a championship with what seemed like effective management of an excellent starting rotation and really iffy bullpen. I’d be interested in a deep dive into his progression as a manager, using those soulless automaton skills of yours... Thanks!
I'd like an expanding view of who the break will help--the Nats are an obvious choice since this'll mean fewer innings for the starters, but how about the other clubs?
ReplyDeleteI imagine Evil Empire fans are pretty happy with a little more recovery time for their ridiculous number of injured.......