Wednesday, June 10, 2020
Hall of Fame - Part 2
2011 - Bonds, Joe Carter (Alomar, Blyleven).
What he'd miss on Blyleven? Nothing really A really good pitcher for a long time, he's a close call. He got in here on his last ballot, so keeping him out isn't much of a miss.
What he miss on Alomar? James had him in a few years later. How'd he get in now? Alomar did retire a little early at 36 and in the next 7 years after 1994, Alomar had 4 years better than anything James saw before making this list. The combo pushes him ahead a few years
What he miss on Bonds? Steroids - also I assume James thought was a first ballot type but he'd play longer a couple more years than James probably thought he would.
What he miss on Carter? A bunch. He had been off the ballot for years by 2011. After 94 he'd never have another good year which James probably didn't guess because he was good right up to 1994. Given he was sort of borderline one or two more good years would have made a big difference
2012 - Butler, Cone (Larkin).
What he miss on Larkin? From 95-98 be fantastic including an MVP which set him up for a HoF career, something James couldn't have projected.
What he miss on Brett Butler? A misjudgment of the voting body. Butler was underappreciated but like Carter was bordeline and like Carter would be out on his first ballot in 2003.
What he miss on Cone? Cone was a tough one. He pitched well enough for a few years after 94 to make the case but got unlucky with wins. Then at 36 he'd fall off the cliff. Would 230-240 wins, which is what James probably had him around, have been enough?
2013 - Trammell, Whitaker (noone)
What he miss on these guys? Both these guys were done not long after 1994 and that wouldn't have surprised James given Trammell's decline and Whitaker's health. Just misjudged the voting body again. Whitaker was off the ballot immediately in 2001. Trammell hung around all 15 years but peaked only at 40%. Trammell would get in by the vet committee but Whitaker is still on the outside
2014 - Gossage, Mattingly (Maddux, Glavine, Thomas)
What he miss on Maddux? Nothing really. Knew he'd be in and rather quickly.
What he miss on Thomas? Not much here either. Thomas would only have 4+ years under his belt by 1994 and they were all great so the call wasn't hard. Consider the later induction a hedging of bets for all that could happen.
What he miss on Glavine? Glavine was 3 time 20 game winner with a Cy Young by 1994 but James probably didn't have him hanging around long enough to get close to 300. Instead he got over and in addition to the great early pitching made him an easy in.
What he miss on Gossage? My guess is that the surprise vote on Sutter pushed Gossage earlier than everyone would have thought in the early 00s (this would have been about the end of his ballot time) Getting him in at all was a good guess in my book
What he miss on Mattingly? He probably thought Mattingly had a few more years left in him after a decent 1994, but injuries never left and he'd throw in the towel in 1995. 2700+ hits 250+ homers with the dominant mid 80s run might have been enough to eventually get him in but 2000/200 wasn't.
2015 - McDowell, Maddux (Johnson, Martinez, Smoltz, Biggio).
What he miss on McDowell? Pretty simple McDowell broke at age 30.
What he miss on Randy Johnson? Basically everything. Randy wasn't great before 1995. He was getting better sure and eating a bunch of innings but 1995 was awesome and 1997 was awesome, and oh yeah 1999-2002. There's 5 Cy Youngs in there.
What he miss on Pedro? At this point we're getting close to guys he didn't see enough of. Pedro has three seasons by 1994 and was really good but it's hard to bet on just 3 seasons unless they are transcendent. Pedro's HoF run would be 97-03
What he miss on Smoltz? Smoltz wasn't nearly as accomplished as Maddux or even Glavine by 1994 with only one really good year. He'd find himself in 95 and then pitch forever.
What he miss on Biggio? You knew what Biggio was - a just under .300 hitter with doubles power. In 1994 you'd be hard pressed to put Biggio's career from that at anything HoF worthy. But he'd play to 41 and get a TON of at bats so he'd reach 3000 hits and million doubles I think.
I've run out of time. more tomorrow.
2016 - McGriff, Gooden
2017 - Thomas, Sierra
2018 - Griffey Jr, Alomar
2019 - Bagwell, Juan Gonalez
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3 comments:
Great stuff, Harper. I'm sure lots of folks are reading this, even though no one is commenting. How about if you come up with a solution to the intransigence of both the owners and the players?
The owners fight is really bothering me. They're banking on the fact that they can cast the players as selfish overpaid babies playing a child's game, but the fact of the matter is that they are running a business. All businesses have to prepare for rainy days, and the fact that the owners didn't is not the players fault. They exploit younger players for years and net millions on that exploitation, not to mention criminally underpay minor leaguers, and they have the gall to complain about not making money off concessions and ticketing this year? It's outrageous.
The question is, does Dr Emu have spells for resolving labor disputes in professional sports leagues?
@Cautiously: Yeah, the owners stink and clearly aren't negotiating in good faith. I'm getting worried the second wave is going to hit before they get this worked out and there'll be no baseball this year.
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