The last games of the season are just over two weeks away. The Nats have played 42 games meaning, if all goes well, they could manage 18 more games. They have to make up 5.5 games on the last team in the playoffs so a 13-5 run to get to one game under .500 would mean that team, currently the Marlins or Giants, would have to go 9-12 and 6-9 respectively.
Neither of these is crazy but the 13-5 for the Nats probably is. But the thing is, as you get into more reasonable territory, say 11-7, the other numbers get a little harder to imagine : 7-14, 4-11. Along with the fact that the Rockies, Brewers, Mets and Reds all can't do equal or better than the 11-7 record.
It's not over just yet but we're staring at it being beyond even the most optimistic scenario. Lose all 3 this weekend and you'd have to finish 13-2 to have a shot? Yeah no.
Really the Nats need to sweep the remaining games, but in this crazy season I'll take a 2-1 and look around to see if things have changed. The big thing sitting out there is a 5 game set against the Marlins followed by a 5 gamer against the Phillies. All we can ask for is they get to those series with a chance to catch either of those teams, however remote that chance may be (bc it's probably take a sweep).
Someone is going to run off something like 14-4 to end the year. Someone is going to tank with a 4-14. More than likely that'll be an Indians and Tigers but why not the Nats and a team they are chasing? The cards lined up last year. If we were 140 games in I'd say pack it in. But we want to squeeze all the enjoyment out of this tiny season as possible so hang in there. Let's not call it optimism about the Nats' chances, but realism that the minute the season is over you'll be ready for the next one, a real 162 one, to start.
4 comments:
There's also a chance a team or teams get sick. Obviously, they keep their win percentage, but if they are good then other teams won't get expected losses and vice versa. Still a crap shoot, but I wouldn't pay to roll these dice at almost any odds.
The recent loss to Atlanta poured cold water on my hopes. They need a pull off a sweep or two, and this was the one that could have happened. Voth & Fedde starts need strong offense and reliever performances --- and W's. A four game streak and I'll reassess my optimism.
I think the season is pretty much over, barring a miracle. The question on my mind is: should the Nats go into rebuilding in the offseason, or dismiss this as a 60 game fluke and try and reload for ‘21?
Wait, just saw the subtitle change (I’m probably like 10 months late). No more whosianders and whatisglories (or was it whatsiglories?) If this is the most 2nd most popular Nats blog, what’s the first, Fed Baseball?
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