Just 4+ years after he was one of the hottest commodities in baseball, the Nats land Kyle Schwarber. The contract itself isn't too important (7 million in 2021, 3 million in 2022 + a mutual option in 2022 for 11 million) as what it means. This is it. This is the decision for the OF next year. No Springer. No Brantley. No Ozuna. It's Schwarber.
So what is Schwarber? He's a "three true outcome"ish player, who homers, strikes out and walks. His HR/FB is insanely consistent, not quite elite but close. His walk rate is a bit better but still not tops. What is? Well, his strikeout rate can get to "worst" levels. But still as a combo you'll take it if he's knocking enough balls over the fence and having enough other hits here and there.
That was the case in 2018 and 2019 but not the case in 2020. What happened? Well as always with the "COVID year" caveat, he hit a bunch of balls into the ground and pulled them. There was also a little more chasing. All these could be connected in either direction. He's not getting the hits he wants, gets frustrated and starts swinging at more pitches or he starts swinging at more pitches and his bad contact leads to bad hits. Either way - that's what's needs to be fixed because a repeat of 2020, where he hit .188, would be disastrous, regardless of how many of those are going over the fence and how many walks he's taking.
I kind of downplay 2020 in a way that I wouldn't normally do with recent years - especially if there are no trends leading into it (which there are none that I see here), so I'm fairly confident that he can get back to 2019 levels, at least for a year.
Of course there's the other thing baseball players do - field, and Kyle is... ok look, he's not good. You can squint and cut his fielding data and manage to make him seem ok, but size, age, total history, recent history, eyeball test; he fails all those. He came in and was god awful, he tried really hard and got to average but time catches up to everyone and when you are roly poly it catches up with you a little earlier a lot of the time. I am very pessimistic he'll be any good in the field, playing in his first new stadium, with a CF that has to also help out on the other side*
What do I see in 2021? I see a bad fielder that's going to drive us, and especially Victor LF2/CF/RF2 Robles, crazy. This makes making sure he corrects his batting this year incredibly crucial.
Anything else?
- Is he a righty crusher? Ehhhh, nah. He hits them better but he also sees them more. It's probably more honest to say he shouldn't see lefties. But it's probably MOST honest to say - look he's going to hit lefties worse but he'll still walk and hit homers so just keep sending him out because that's why you have him in the line-up.
- Last year he didn't hit FBs as well and he always could hit FBs so that's not a great sign.
- He generally hits better in Wrigley but last year that didn't hold, so that's a good sign. Though H/A splits usually aren't super indicative unless the home park is wacky like Coors
- For whatever reason Schwarber has had the fewest ABs in Nats Park than any other NL park that's been still open. Just 20. Hell he's had more PAs in Cleveland than Washington (he's been fine in DC but with 20 PAs- who knows)
I think the Nats got a bad fielder that will give the team fits. However, I think there's still a decent hitter in there. I think it will come out next year. If he's GOOD at the plate - for one season it'll be fine and it'll be fun to watch him launch some bombs. If he's not good - even if he's ok - it probably won't be enough. He probably won't be as good as Ozuna, or Springer, or Brantley so if you are the type to dwell over that stuff (even though all of them will get multi year more expensive deals)...prepare now.
Oh - another thing though is what is Kyle replacing? The Nats were terrible in the 3rd OF position last year. I have to believe unless it blows up Schwarber will make it better. Probably not good, but maybe average (which it was in 2019).
The bar is kind of low for "better" Schwarber makes the Nats better. He doesn't make them good (and neither does Bell) but they set up a situation where they could be... if the aces comes through.
*remember Juan Soto is not a good fielder. Despite how badly you want to believe it. He is good enough now to stick out there, but not good. Moving from LF to RF will be another issue
13 comments:
It seems like it could be another solid signing, if there is more to come. I think that are currently around $30M under the luxury tax after this signing. I figure around 10-15M to the 4th starter. That gives them around $15-20M to get another bat and maybe a reliever. It seems like Justin Turner would be a good fit, right? As long as he doesn't demand 4 years...
No one is saying that Soto is good on defense. I don't even think anyone is saying that Soto could become good on defense.
What the optimists are saying is:
1. Soto is not that bad. Among corner outfielders, he's mediocre not horrendous and doesn't need to be pushed down the spectrum as soon as possible.
2. Soto is likely to improve on defense. I admit that this almost never happens - almost everyone's defensive effectiveness is monotonically decreasing from their first game in the majors. But for a lot of reasons (youth, inexperience, make-up etc), Soto is likely to be an exception. Still, all anyone is saying is that he'll improve to a peak of a slightly above-average corner outfielder.... Which is still a not so great defender.
(By the way, 2020 did not support #2 at all. Weird year, to be sure, and I'm happy to find a reason to throw it out, but if 2021 isn't at least back to 2019 levels, then I don't think it's possible to keep holding to part 2 of this.)
I still think Soto should be moved to 1B but Mike Rizzo and Davey haven't responded to any of my emails.
I think the elephant in the room is the Mats getting Lindor and Carrasco. Even with Schwarber, the Nats are clearly in 3rd place in the race for a wildcard, and I don't think they're that close. Even if they spent to the luxury tax threshold, I don't think they'd get more than another 3-4 wins for next year which probably wouldn't close the gap (although it would help a lot).
This makes me a lot happier about the Schwarber signing than I otherwise be.
1) He's higher variance than the average. When you're behind, keeping the expected wins fixed, variance in wins is good.
2) The contract ends after 1 year. So, if after this year things really don't look good (Braves youngsters develop well, Nats get older than you expect) he's not going to get in the way of rebuilding.
I have to echo Max and say I think this means the Nats are looking to spend bigger elsewhere, and there may be some belief that the DH will indeed return to the NL this year (where you'd obviously slot in Schwarber). The question is where are they looking to spend? I doubt they go after Realmuto, maybe Turner or Lemahieu makes sense? Or do they look at Bauer or Tanaka? I don't know. It's a surprising move to be sure and I have to think Rizzo has something up his sleeve
I like the Soto defensive analysis by anon above except that I think our goal, his goal, is a peak slightly below average. He's not getting average and that is fine. That's the best case scenario and even then he's done with even that by 25 unless they let home Sheffield around out there.
Thoughts on Lester?
The Lester signing I like. Not much money for a guy who is only a couple of years removed from an All Star season, was good in 2019, and was actually pretty good last year in stretches (mostly just a bad stretch followed by a good stretch, so I attribute the end of year numbers to small sample size). And he’s typically very durable. They say there’s no such thing as a bad one year deal. And I’m inclined to agree. Lester would be an amazing #5. But as #4, probably good with the potential to be a little below average. I’ll take that for $5M. I kinda feel the same way about Schwarber too.
On another note: Harper, I don’t know the line of work you’re in or if something else has kept you unusually busy, but dude....I hope everything settles down for you soon because you are way less active this year vs previous and I miss the discussions on this blog. I know there’s a relatively small number of things to talk about on here. But I miss your posts and everybody else on here that were typically so lively.
I agree with JDBrew on all accounts. All of these signings are solid in a vacuum, but would be disappointing if this is it. I think they still have ~$25M in cap space. I would hope that is enough for another solid bat (maybe J Turner or La Stella?), one more solid reliver, Zimm, and the remaining backups. Realmuto would be awesome, but probably isn't happening (although if they trade Gomes, they'd have the room to sign him and stay under the luxury tax...).
I hope we get some more posts soon. I miss this blog! Hope all is well Harper!
Zimm’s back. $1mil + incentives.
I think it will be a tough division this year. Mets and Braves loom to be in pretty good shape, with the Phil’s not too far behind if they sign Realmuto.
Harper, what’s your take?
If losing Henry Aaron is how this year is going to start, I have no hope at all that things will be better than last year.
Brad Hand for one year, $10.5M. Kind of high for a reliever, but it's a one-year deal and he's been good pre-2020 and good in 2020 so there's no reason to think he'll suddenly suck except for Nationals Bullpen Death Spiral Magic. If we can't make a decent bullpen out of Hand, Harris, Hudson, Rainey, Suero, Finnegan, Harper, Clay, and the losers in the #5 starter roulette then maybe it's time to seriously wonder if curses are real.
Lester, I think, will be a fine #5 starter. As a #4 I hope he will be.
Zimm returning I have few thoughts on. He could still hit lefties when last seen on a baseball field so he covers for Bell's weakness in that area, or can DH if that surprises by becoming a thing again. He's cheap and useful.
I still have a lot of uncertainty about the 2B/3B situation between Castro, Garcia, and Kieboom, and while Schwarber and Bell have the potential to hit a large number of home runs and get on base a lot, they also have the potential to not do those things. There's a whole lot of "keep your fingers crossed" in the lineup after Soto and Turner.
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