A quiet weekend for once. Although not really. The Braves did sign Ozuna on Friday.
It's been a wild 30 days for the NL East. We have seen
January 7th - Mets trade for Lindor/Carrasco
January 9th - Nats sign Schwarber
January 18th - Phillies sign Archie Bradley
January 26th - Nats sign Brad Hand
January 27th - Nats sign Jon Lester
January 29th - Phillies re-sign Realmuto
January 30th - Phillies re-sign Gregorious
February 5th - Braves sign Marcell Ozuna
This isn't mentioning more minor deals. The Nats solidified their back-up catcher spot with Avila. The Mets signed Aaron Loup who will be a decent pen arm and traded for Joey Lucchesi a solid 4-5 who will give them rotation depth. The Phillies gambled on Sam Coonrod and Matt Moore.
The end result to this is nearly all the holes in these teams are filled. I think the Mets could use one more reliable bullpen arm - after Diaz* it's a mess - and they could get one. I think the Phillies really need a 1-2-3 type starter and they probably won't get that.
Who's left to make a difference?
Jake Odorizzi - I can't see anyone but the Phillies making this move (and they really should) T
Justin Turner - Nats are the ones with the room for him but they'd have to deal Kieboom first. Phillies and Braves have young guys they'd like to try who have looked better than Kieboom. Mets have solid major leaguers already so the bump wouldn't be much.
Jackie Bradley Jr - an intriguing one for the Phillies. Quinn needs to be pushed out and Haseley is a question. Mets kicking the tires as currently they have settled with Almora - a bad settle.
James Paxton / Taijuan Walker - could help anyone. Tough to rely on though so would be a fun gamble for a Nats or Braves who could use a little more depth if gotten cheap - which is unlikely. Would be in rotation for Phillies which would be iffy. Mets full.
Trevor Rosenthal - everyone can use an arm but the Nats have to be gun shy and the Braves are pretty full. Mets make sense
Yadier Molina - no one needs a starter and he's not going to back-up
Cole Hamels - Phillies here too. Braves you could say "we need a great vet to teach" but they probably don't actually need that. The Nats would be fun if only because a rotation of Max Stras Corbin Lester and Hamels would sound unbeatble even though that's only true in a world where you can pick the ages of your pitchers.
Mark Melancon - Mets or Phillies should jump on this reliable arm if they can get a 1-2 yr deal (which they should) . Not the same guy but until you stop producing...
There's a world here where the NL East gets even better. The Nats sign Turner (and trade Kieboom for something interesting). The Phillies sign JBJ, Odorizzi, and one of the relievers**. The Mets sign the other one. the Braves bring in Paxton or Walker to try to luck out into another 1-2. Make it happen guys!
*Hey I like Diaz! Everything points to 2019 being the fluke.
** In this instance you have a funny situation where the Phillies probably have (1) the 8th-10th best rotation in baseball and (2) clearly the 4th best rotation in the NL East.
I don't see Rizzo trading Kieboom yet...which may be dumb. I think we're all holding out hope he figures things out, but at this point it seems mental. If they trade Kieboom, I suspect it will work out similar to Giolito: kid with raw talent but not the greatest head on his shoulders who needs to be given the time to sort things out. Just like with Giolito, I don't think the Nats have time to let things sort themselves out.
ReplyDeleteWhat does that mean? Maybe you ship Kieboom off to the DBacks who aren't likely to contend, have a horrible 3B situation, and have a handful of good looking OF prospects? I don't love that option.
In all reality the Nats just have to either sign Turner or go with Kieboom and make a move midseason if necessary. I feel like Rizzo would have made a move by now, though, so I think the roster will remain as constructed and leaves wiggle room in the budget for midseason acquisitions
Cautious P-
ReplyDeleteI have been gun shy on cutting bait too early ever since i was dead wrong on ian desmond. I dont think you can give up on kieboom yet. I would personally have loved if the nats had tried to make an upgrade at catcher. Besides that, it seems like they have a good plan to be competitive going into the year. But idk how you can rebuild the farm system without giving some guys like kieboom some string.
I don't think the Nats will give up on Kieboom because they don't particularly need anything to be competitive right now. Since that is the case they can focus a bit on what's next. You need good young players to offset the cost of good old players you keep. They are coming up to a point where they aren't going to have any good young players that are cheap. Turner hits FA after two seasons. Soto will be half-way into arbitration and presumably be getting close to 20 million. Your hope is Garcia and Kieboom both hit so you have two more good bats very cheap along with Robles doing better (he'll also be mid arb) so you can keep paying FA pitchers. Your real hope is that in two years you have a pitcher or two that's cheap - which is why they can't give up Rutledge or Cavalli despite them being longer shots.
ReplyDeleteI think if the latter two get good (or one and a surprise arm) then Kieboom becomes more expendable and if he has value he's gone. But until then someone has to really win the Nats over for him - maybe for someone signed to a very favorable deal (like Eaton was)
Shockingly PECOTA predicts the Mets to crush the NL East and finish as the second best team in NL this year!
ReplyDeleteI think that the Nats are pretty much done until mid season. The only question left for spring training is who is the 5th bench player after Zimmmerman, Avila, Stevenson & Harrison. I am assuming that they will want Garcia t start the year in the minors. They te under the cap by about 15-20 million, so perhaps a mid season acquisition if the team is in playoff contention. The 2022 season will present a lot more opportunities with Scherzer's big salary coming off the books and a lot of other players on expiring contracts.
ReplyDelete