Zimmermann and the unknowable long term deal

As you all know, I'm generally 100% right on everything I say. It's spooky really.  However, a signing yesterday points out that generally isn't always.  Jordan Zimmermann, his deal with the Tigers up, has signed a minor league deal with his hometown Brewers. At the same time Max hopes to rebound and have another close to Cy Young-ish type season to end his contract with the Nats. If Max were a FA while he wouldn't get a huge deal - he is going to be 36 next season - would clearly get a well paid major league deal of multiple years. My personal error in judgement? Six or so years ago when I said I would rather have Jordan Zimmermann than Max Scherzer.  

Now this wasn't based on the idea of ZNN being a better pitcher than Max.  I thought Max was (slightly) better*.  It was based on my feelings that ZNN was a better bet to be healthy for the entirity of the contract. After having Tommy John surgery, ZNN had basically not missed a game in 5 years, seemingly unbreakable in a way that the Nats other ace pitcher - Strasburg - was not. On the other side Max had also been a rock - basically not missing a start for 6 years.  But age, Max is nearly two years older than ZNN, and use, Max had an extra 350 IP on his arm, suggested the safer bet would be ZNN. 

You all know the Nats basically passed on ZNN. They offered him a low-end market deal and he walked to Detroit. You also know that he didn't amount to anything with the Tigers disappearing into the ether. But how did that happen?  Well here is his 2016. 

Up until May 22nd : A health ZNN puts up a 7-2 2.52 ERA line. His K's are down a tiny bit (6.67 K/9) but his control is lights-out (~1.5 BB/9) and he's keeping the ball in the park (0.8 HR/9)

May 22nd : Hurts groin. Misses a start, comes back to put up a series of mediocre performances in June

July 4th : Hurts neck. Put on DL. Misses a month 

Aug 6th : Comes back for a start. Is terrible. Hurts lat. Back to the DL 

Sept 10th : Comes back. Is terrible. Pitches a few more random times before end of the year.  Looking slightly better.

It's a nightmare scenario where one injury leads to another leads to another. He would power through and pitch 29 games in 2017 (bad), 25 in 2018 (ok) and 23 in 2019 (bad) but he clearly wasn't the same pitcher. That pinpoint control that led to his dominant years was gone. Walks ticked up, hits even more so, and the homers nearly doubled.

Meanwhile Max stayed injury free through 2018 and only had a minor one in 2019. It's possible that leads to a cascade like ZNN had. Max's 2020 showed that same progression in losing the strike zone and being more wild, hittable, and able to be crushed, though not as terrible. But having it come in the last year of a long contract, instead of the first year makes ALL the difference. Max's is going to the Hal of Fame. ZNN is going to be a name in a book. 

This is a warning though for the Nats who harbor two long pitching contracts. Corbin signed through 2024 and Stras through 2026.  Corbin had a 2020 more like his pre-FA year in Arizona. Strasburg in 2020 got hurt after his ultra-rare healthy year in 2019.**  The Nats are counting on both these guys being aces for the next few years. Max is aging out. There is no one in the immediate pipeline. They are eating up contract money. If one (or god forbid both) pull a Zimmermann and have 2020 be the first year in a series of years that don't measure up due to injury or whatever, the Nats are going to have a tough time being the team they have been - the consistent winner and playoff presence.

What do the Nats do then? If Stras and Corbin aren't good in 2021? A long term deal for Max is not going to happen - but he could be back for 2-3 years. He could also bolt for somewhere that will give him 3-4. Do the Nats tear down, hoping to rebuild with young pitching before the giant outlay that will likely be needed to keep Juan Soto? Or do they push on with the guys they have - hoping to puzzle things together? Well, I guess we hope there is no question, that Stras and Corbin are great in 2021 and the Nats can move on as planned.

*Say what you want to say - memory is often clouded by desire to make yourself look good - but no one had Max being the best pitcher in baseball from age 31-34. In the three years leading up to the Max signing their ERA+ were nearly identical - ZNN's control matching up nicely against Max's Ks.

** basically his second full season of his career in 10 years in the game