There's been a lot of talk about trading Max this year and a lot of reverse talk about how it's not worth it. I probably lean toward the latter category - teams are valuing... well value too much and will hold on to guys they might have given up in the past. But you can back and forth trades all you want - what do actual similar trades show you? Ace - end of contract - traded away?
2018 : Greinke goes - return was Astros 3-4-5-22 guys
Seth Beer - 24 a guy they used to love who got stopped by high level minors pitching. Now a slap hitting, no-walk first baseman who looks like a utility guy / bench bat with no position.
JB Bukauskas - 24 former Fedde/Ross prospect who failed in minors. D-backs are trying him as a reliever.
Corbin Martin - 25 another Fedde/Ross. A wild AAAA guy right now
Josh Rojas - 27 Older AAA hitter whose age made him a guy with no place to go in Houston. Found himself in 2019 though and looks to be a solid player for the D-backs.
2017 : Darvish - return was promising Calhoun, and a couple of very young high ceiling guys
AJ Alexy : 23 seemingly hit ceiling as a starter in high-A, being looked at as a reliever but might go back
Brendon Davis : 23. Struggled in A and High A but got challenge call-ups. Too bad in AA to get another. Traded again and struggling in High A for another team.
Willie Calhoun : Immediately called up and has been mostly bad. Not a particularly good defender and not paitent at all he's an average an power guy who doesn't K as much as you might think. However the power has been on and off. Good so far in 2021.
2015: Johnny Cueto - return was Royals 3/4/5th best guy in Finnegan. Reed and Lamb were top 20ish
Brandon Finnegan - Immediately got the Reds a year of 5th startering - but got dropped down to AAA where he looks like he won't make it back.
John Lamb - They'd use Lamb immediately too. He'd be terrible though. Traded again and still is terrible.
Cody Reed - you know the drill mostly bad to terrible as a starter. He flashed some skill as a reliever and has since been traded to Tampa where he's a last man in the pen type
Any of these returns for Max grab you? You almost certainly aren't going to get a pitcher likely to succeed. The BEST is getting something in the Fedde/Ross mold and you've seen how that's worked out. Maybe a couple far off prospects to join? Or grab an older guy who hits with no place on the team and hope he's not a AAAA bat? If the best guy involved in a deal here is Willie Calhoun or Josh Rojas is that what you want for Max's last months? Ryan Pepiot, Jake Vogel and Sheldon Neuse back?
There are other ways to go : Do you want a teams 2nd or 3rd best starter? (Straight up for a Bobby Miller type - though probably not him since he just got drafted last year so this is everyone's first pro look at him) Do you want 5 of their 20-30 guys? But the return won't be for someone they think will definitely be good enough to start in 2022.
I think the question is how the return balances against the pick you'd get if he declines the QO (as he would do). I'd grab a bundle of young, high upside guys and figure you only hit on one a third of the time and not for a few years at least. So the fact that the past few trades haven't panned out doesn't surprise me, although it's not exactly encouraging.
ReplyDeleteI'd rather watch Max pitch than get the equivalent of Michael A Taylor, Erick Fedde, and Tanner Rainey at best
ReplyDelete@Harper: great information. Thanks for doing the research. You make a pretty strong case for keeping Max.
ReplyDelete@Ryan: if we got any one of MAT, Fedde or (2019) Tanner Rainey, it would be an okay deal. Those are three major league players, although not good major league players.
The only value of getting 3 or 4 prospects is the ability to trade them for something else.
Org depth doesn't seem the way to go unless you are cheaper small market team looking to strike gold for cheap. I kind of expect the Royals to make those kinds of trades ad infinitum.
ReplyDeleteIf we trade Max, we should be looking for a top level prospect that is potentially blocked on a contender. If we can't get it, org depth ain't gonna cut it when you're this close to putting a MLB team out there with other team's cast off org depth.
Maybe someone like CJ Abrams (SS) from the Padres?
But what do I know? I have no way of knowing if the above is a fair trade. Prospect value and trade value are so far beyond my understanding of the business of baseball. I personally think teams value their prospects WAAAY too much, but I'll also never know enough about a bunch of kids I've never had any need to have heard of.
I too would rather watch Max finish the season in a Nats jersey than trade for a bunch of whathisnames.
Agreed 139. Org depth is only important for trades. Occasionally you find a diamond in the rough, but you're just as likely to find that diamond in your own org as opposed to someone else's. The Nationals have traded away so much at this point that depth isn't even that useful. They need to rebuild their top 10 with players that actually fall in the top 100 rankings
ReplyDeleteIn other bad news, apparently the Nats are dealing with another COVID situation. This time someone who's vaccinated
I might be in the minority, but I think the D-backs return for Grienke isn't terrible given that you are really just talking about a couple of months of a player. Of course, Grienke resigned with the Astros, but still. Josh Rojas, while young and unproven, would be one of the better hitters in this current Nats lineup and can play just about every position but catcher. If nothing else, that's a useful bench piece. The jury is still out on Martin and JB. But Martin could end up being a 4/5 as Harper points out, and that's not bad except for the fact that the Nats have a bit of a glut of 4/5s right now. But a pitcher at Martins would probably by the 3rd or 4th best pitching prospect in the Nats system currently. So that's not as bad a trade level as people seem to think in my opinion -- even though that's more of an indictment of the Nats farm than anything.
ReplyDeleteI think that the best approach would be to be looking for a high level prospect that is blocked as others have noted. There are a few teams that are "contenders" with pretty deep farms -- Padres, Rays, Chi Sox. Look at the Rays. They have 5 SSs in their top 10 prospects. You'd have to think that if they are in a position to contend later in the summer that they would give up one for Max, especially given Wander Franco is clearly, obviously 100% their shortstop of the future. It would be nuts to me not to. But again, as others note teams seem to be crazy with overvaluing their prospects.
My respect for DM increased 100% when he was ejected for arguing the bad base running call on Trea. It was entertaining.
ReplyDeleteIs it clear Max would allow trade? Isn't he 5/10 guy?
ReplyDeleteWhat's 100% of 0 Natty?
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