Max wins. Soto homers. Robles get the fans excited. Hudson does well. Is it 2019?
If you want to be truthful - Max wasn't Max - walking 4 in 5 hasn't been him in a long while. This version of Max gets forced out early but is probably preferable to the ScHeRzer version which puts the Nats in a hole.
That was a classic Soto homer though. It was a pitch that was supposed to catch the bottom of the zone, toward the middle of the plate, that drifted up and in (but still in the zone). A mistake that went into Soto's wheelhouse and that he didn't miss. A great thing to see after everything I talked about last time.
Robles was also himself - in that I mean he's a below average hitter who's a good fielder who can come through at times. He's still only 24 so he probably isn't peaked, but the base for Victor is this kind of 90-95 OPS+ type of player. In his heart he'd rather not walk and I say don't make him. Leave him be. Let him hit .260 with 15-20 homers, play some nice D and hold a spot in the line-up you can accept. Maybe in 2022-24 you catch a break and he gets better and becomes a .280 20+ homer guy for a few years. Maybe he just flukes into it once. I know you wanted another star and he's not it, but as an overall player he's fine. Don't worry about replacing the fine players. Worry about the post Harrison/Castro plans and the what was a two-year Bell plan. And paying for Trea. Worry about that alot.
As for Hudson... look the guy has gotten EXTREMELY lucky this year. He has a .107 BABIP. He has a 100% LOB. Those are not sustainable. Not that he's pitched poorly, but he's a 3.50+ pitcher sporting a 1.25+ ERA. I'm not asking for everyone to not say he's doing a good job but a realization that you're getting away with a little here would be nice.
The win means the Nats can still get that split that was expected. This is a winnable game though Trevor Williams might be good since it's home so don't expect a cakewalk (although he's no good so a cakewalk could come). This is a HUGE game for Ross as Strasburg is slated to slot back into the rotation in the next go round. If Ross is bad and Fedde is not in these next starts it'll be extremely hard not to go with the latter going forward
Of course they might have already started leaning in one direction. The Nats have no named starters yet after tonight and Strasburg has been angling to replace Fedde's spot timing wise, so we'll see. But if Ross is terrible then you make the decision just on that.
How do the potential COVID positives to Fedde and maybe Rainey affect the rotation plans moving forward?
ReplyDeleteHarper, do you have any theories on the reduced offensive output in MLB this year? Is it random? The ball? The three true outcomes approach? Just curious if you've run any numbers on it, since you're so good at that.
ReplyDeleteGlad to see Soto hit like Soto for one night. And when Max is not great, he still battles better than any of the SPs on this team. Once saw Fernando Valenzuela get rocked early in SF (like four runs in the first three innings), but he hung in through seven and LA came back and won (threw a LOT of pitches, which may be why he broke down fairly young). So many pitchers just lose it completely in individual games. Max is SO competitive and his focus is at a different level, which is why I think he's already a lock for the HOF.
@Mike H - all true. Which is why I say don't trade Max. Watching him pitch is really a treat. My father says the same thing about growing up in LA and watching Koufax - there was nothing else like it. I think Max is that for this era (and maybe Pedro Martinez during my younger years). The two no-hitters, the 20 strikeout game, the Game 7 start coming off a bad back and battling the way he did, the stalking on the mound, the intensity... all of it. He's the modern day version of a true workhorse/anchor that every rotation would love to have. I hope Rizzo doesn't give give other teams the satisfaction of watching all that in their uniform. We're blessed to have seen it. At this point, his $200M signing was a bargain for what we've been privileged to watch every 5th day - at that is VERY rare.
ReplyDeleteI don't want to go kooky conspiracy here, but that covid positive and close contract sure are coming at a convenient moment to possibly delay some personnel moves with pitchers.
ReplyDeleteAnon - oh yeah - Straburg will probably start tomorrow if he's ready. After that Fedde could come back in Ross' spot(we're making assumptions here) if he's clear of COVID. The timing works
ReplyDeleteRainey doesn't matter in the rotation obviously. I imagine more Harris to see if he can the the 3rd guy.
Mike H - MLB said they deadened the ball. If you do that and the batters don't change their approach (they have not) you drop the HR numbers and reduce scoring. (13.3% compared to 14.8 and 15.3 the past 2 years) Also the pitchers are more geared to take advantage of the batters tendency to K and that is continuing to go up. (24.1% to 23.4% and 23.0%) It's just a smidge here and there but combine and you get a small effect. The second number is big because the homer rate is in line with 2106/2018 but the K rate is now 2-3% higher.
We are seeing a very slight reduction in FB% so maybe hitters are reacting? (dead FBs are the easiest outs) but it's all about the Ks - which are 50% higher than 15 years ago. You need to get them down as well and I don't know an easy answer.
Mike/PBN - Max is great - enjoy this year in case he doesn't want to come back (or the Nats lowball him)
Curly W - It'd be a neat play but I don't buy it. God forbid someone tweak something while you have to have these guys out.
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