If you want to be fair, the end result of the series with the Yankees was exactly what the Nationals expected to see. 1-2 against a pretty good opponent on the road is the aim and was achieved. But whenever you grab the first game in a series going 1-2 feels like a disappointment, especially when the next two games were both very winnable. Scherzer pitched a gem and Ross held the Yankees in check but in the end the bullpen, specifically Brad Hand, failed and the Nats lost two straight walk-offs. The Nats, once lucky, have lost three straight one-run games bringing that record to 5-5. The Nats you see now are who the Nats are now.
What does that mean? It means they are a team with BIG offensive problems. They aren't the worst team in the NL but they are closer to the worst team (the Mets) then they are to the next team ahead of them (the Brewers). They are bad. Robles still isn't hitting*. The Yadi experiment seems like it's over. Bell and Schwarber are still having big trouble. Harrison has cooled down a lot. And the big one - Soto hasn't hit since coming back. Though much like at the beginning of the year he does have some hard hit balls that suggest better things coming. So while Starlin Castro and Yan Gomes (111 OPS+ now) are now hitting that's just not enough to keep an offense afloat. They lack power - 9th in SLG despite being 1st in BA. They lack patience - 8th in OBP.
Pitching wise it's been ok. The starters have had their terrible games early but are better than average getting past those. The relief core has been surprisingly decent despite the recent failings. If they could solve Tanner Rainey, or resign themselves to not using him, they'd be quite good. It's not the pitching... well it IS the pitching. This is a pitching team and the pitching, especially the starting pitching, needs to be great. But it's not the pitching's fault this team is below .500. The Nats have the pitching of a .500+ team and the hitting of a 65 win team.
What can be done? Not much. Hope Soto starts hitting like a star again and hope your FA bats wake up. You can run in Zimm a bit more for Bell but no one else on the bench is going to make a big difference outside of a brief hot run.
There's a big series with the Phillies next, where the Nats could be buried if they get swept. After that the Nats will go over two weeks without playing a division opponent so this is the last time in a little bit to directly effect the competition. They are also now done with the odd section of their schedule with SO MUCH REST. They had gone
Day off - 3G - Day Off - 2G - Day Off - 3G - Day Off - 6G - Day Off
That's not a baseball schedule. 14 games in 19 days, leading off with 8 games in 12 days. Crazy. The next run goes
13G - Day Off - 13G - Day Off - 9G
So that will be, by the very end, 35G in 37 days. If the Nats are going to break by schedule - it could be here. It'll be their hardest run until the late August until end of year push.**
Phillies series preview tomorrow.
*Stevenson is hitting objectively worse so don't even
**They do have a 20 day straight run in June/July but before it they have two days off around a series and after it they have the All-Star Break so there is an ability to rest up for it and rest at the end of it.
Am I the only one not worried about Josh Bell? I don't think he's gonna hit 40 HR but I think .230 with 25 HR is still reasonable projection for the year. His barrel and hard hit rates are good and in line with his 37HR season. His BABIP is .160 (he's usually under .300 but not that low). His K rate is up which is obviously bad and contributing to his struggles, but to me he's screaming regression to mean
ReplyDeleteIt's not a great weekend when your $10m closer blows a save and then gives up the winning run in consecutive games.
ReplyDeleteThe offense is just awful, although it feels like it shouldn't really be a surprise. Bell was a gamble, Schwarber was a gamble, Castro has never been more than average, Harrison (who has over performed) is coming off of several down years in a row, and Robles is who he is at this point -- which is a below average major league hitter. Yes the rolls of the die have all come up snake eyes so far, but that happens. The Nats had three positions where they needed to, and could have, brought in good hitting -- RF, 1B, and 3B. They did not take that step for any of the three positions. They'll get what they get this year. I look forward to the foolish Kris Bryant signing and him underperforming for the next 6 years or whatever.
Before the season I would have said this team would finish 3rd or 4th in the division. I still think that's the most likely result and it feels like it makes sense given the roster.
This team is average. Any bright spot has been filler for guys who should be producing but aren't due to injury or underperformance. Harrison and Yadi Hernandez? Carried the offense while Soto was out, but are not diamonds in the rough. Finnegan or Voth? Pitching well, but making up for dumpster fire Rainey. Ross and Fedde (god I can't believe I'm about to compliment Erick Fedde) both look good, but it's filler for an injured Strasburg and an inconsistent Corbin. Gomes hitting well? That won't last, and it only makes up for the fact that Avila makes me wish we still had Lobaton's bat off the bench (which was predictable). Avila catching MLB games is almost as confusing as Jeff Mathis still getting a job. The others? Turner, Soto, Scherzer... exactly what we hoped for. But that won't get you to the playoffs, but it might keep you from being terrible. Average Nats. I suppose we happy that the division hasn't sorted itself out yet? Idk.
ReplyDeleteMy glass half full outlook is that the most you can ask for are the Harrisons, Yadis, Voths, Finnegans, Ross, and Feddes to carry the water while your stars are out/not playing well. That is what's happening, so we should be happy. If everyone reverts to career norms and the team stays in the fight in a division that is up for grabs, we could surge ahead at some point this season.
Second part sounds better, so I'll just put my rose colored glasses on and ignore the truth :)
Feels like we have just wasted a year of Max because Rizzo failed to put together an adequate lineup.
ReplyDeleteUsually a fan of and an apologist for Davey Martinez, I can't do it this time. Sure we didn't get runs. But we did make it to the 9th inning twice, once with a lead, once tied. If you get that far with a team like the Yankees you have to play to win.
ReplyDeleteIt was painful to watch Brad Hand missing his pitches --- almost ALL of his pitches --- in the Saturday game. After one batter, it was clear the guy didn't have it. After two it was just depressing. You'd think DM would come up with a better plan than "Its the 9th, we're paying him $10M, so Hand gets the ball".
Two or three bull pen members would have done a better job. Blind loyalty works in the long term, but not when players are obviously struggling. Hell, they could have activated Strasburg and given him a couple of innings to build up in each game as part of his rehab. Once Hand went in for the second game, it was over --- and it wasn't even a struggle. We went down without a fight.
The offense has been terrible and disappointing but we needed to get a lucky bounce back from at least one of Bell or Schwarber and that hasn't happened. I am most disappointed with Hand though. I really expected him to be more of a sure thing.
ReplyDeleteAgreed @Nattydread. For all the talk about how Davey's a great players' manager who communicates with them and makes sure he gets the most out of them, I just don't see it with the lineup construction and bullpen management. Bell has been rough all season, why does he bat cleanup? Yan is hot, why is he still batting 7th/8th? If you want to go 1-0 every day, you have to construct a team that is most likely to go 1-0 every day. Players get hot and cold and you should make moves based on that. Not run out the same exact lineup every day. Not use pitchers in only their preferred tailor-made situations. You have to be willing to actually manage the team in-game. You aren't going to make the right move every time, but at least make moves. Feels a bit like Matt "PBN" Williams sometimes these days
ReplyDeleteRevision to standard protocol: "If you're gonna lose, better to lose with your **highest paid** player, rather than your best player." Money drives all these decisions anyways.
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