State of the League and the Phillies

 The season is about 20% over now.  The Nats aren't there yet thanks to dum-dums not getting vaccinated and getting diseases but after this series they will be.  Where does the league stand? 

AL East - Every team has something going for it (The Orioles pitching has been surprisingly ok) but Boston has shot out ahead after a poor start with a great offense. One thing that's interested people is that it's NOT a walk/homer heavy offense - a lot of hits and doubles. If they didn't strike out it'd be ideal but they are kind of average there. Yankees have roared back but will have to beat some division teams to stay there. Tamps and Toronto are both right there with the Yankees. 

AL Central - The Royals held the division for a moment, but it was on the strength of a 6-0 record in 1 run games (8-1 in 2 runs or fewer, 10-2 in 3 runs or fewer) anyway - that luck has moved on. The White Sox have moved into their expected first place with an deadly pitching staff (Giolito is the 5th best starter and he hasn't been terrible) and a very good offense. They may be the most complete team in the majors. Cleveland has been hanging on with great pitching, especially the pen. Twins have taken steps back across the board. Tigers are the worst

AL West - Oakland was the worst but have rode some luck back to first, but Houston is probably the best team in the division. Rangers are below average. Seattle is worse than that but had gone 8-2 in two run or fewer games so they had a moment in the sun. Angels continued pitching plan of "maybe if we do nothing we'll get lucky" has failed again. When Rendon comes back though that offense is going to be pretty impressive. 

NL Central - I regret to inform you the Cardinals are the best team here. I will happily inform you they aren't super good though. Solid team as usual. Cincy can hit well but can't pitch. The Cubs don't hit as well but don't pitch as poorly. Milwaukee has decent pitching but is hurt - healthy they could catch the Cardinals. The Pirates can't hit and one of the worst teams out there.

NL West - Yes the Giants are still in first, but it's mostly about 3 journeyman starting pitchers all having the best seasons of their career so far, and a bunch of old hitters hitting like they played half a season last year and had rest. The pitching cannot hold but maybe the hitting can? Probably not.They've played a crazy amount of close game though.  The Padres have no punch. The Dodgers are 4-10 in one-run games - they've lost 7 straight and 2 2-run games. They should come roaring back, sorry. Arizona have nothing standing out pitching wise and are sliding away. The Rockies go one deep in starters and two deep in the pen. That's no good. 

The Phillies! 

In this season of surprises and strange play, the Phillies are almost who we thought they are.  They have a solid line-up that's probably a little underperforming, a solid top 3 in the rotation and a middling shallow pen that's better than last year but that's a low bar to get over. They are a .500 type team whose fans somehow believe there's a division winner trapped in here if they could get rid of Girardi. He's definitely doing some over managing but they are actually fine in close games and like I said - hitting their expectations - this is what this team is. 

Offensively Bryce and Realmuto are carrying the team, Hoskins is hitting homers and Segura is having a bounce back year. Brad Miller is offering nice support from the bench and almost everyones favorite Phillie, Cutch is heating up. Gregorious is a bit disappointing but once again the real problem is the lack of internal development. This time it's Alec Bohm not hitting. Nick Maton has shown a little but given his history it's hard to see that keeping up. It's not that these guys are bad - they are terrible. It makes everyone else have to be good and recently Bryce back from injury, Didi, and Rhys are all in mini-slumps.

The pen is hurt and like I said - shallow.  Coonrod has amazingly paid off well. No he isn't a 1.00 ERA guy, but he has pitched very well. He's been the main fireman, and Alvardao, despite some shakiness (he can be real wild) has done what they wanted.  Neris is the third best healthy arm and he's usuable.  After that the mess begins again. Their main signing Bradley got hurt and won't be back for another week. Brogdon was never good. Hale was always a question mark. Old friend Kintzler might have hit the age of no return. Suarez and De Los Santos are just arms to throw out there and see what happens. There is a hope that OF COURSE HE WOULD fail starter Matt Moore might re-invent himself for the pen.  An actual swingman? Crazy. Anyway if the Nats can get to the starter there's a soft underbelly of middle relief here assuming Moore isn't the help they need. The Nats miss one of the Phillies bad pitchers, the Moore replacement Velasquez, but also their probably best pitcher in Aaron Nola, though that's up for debate in 2021.

Probables

Chase Anderson vs Erick Fedde  - Nats best chance for a win is here. Not that they can't win the others but Anderson is a guy who fills innings and nothing more. None of his stats are good.  He should give up hits and walks and the occasional homer and some runs in less than 5 innings. The question is what Fedde shows up. I talked last time that he wasn't missing bats and if he doesn't up the Ks... well he's basically Chase Anderson. Given the two offenses an Anderson vs Also Anderson match-up would favor the Phillies.

Wheeler vs Lester - Jon Lester looked nice and solid and like the #4 they signed him to be last time out.  he gave up some runs but always felt in control to me. Zack Wheeler has always been a decent pitcher and we're seeing the best of him now. A couple more Ks, best control, hard to hit a homer off off. He's not giving other teams a lot of chances to score which is bad news for an offense also not giving itself a lot of chances to score

Eflin vs Corbin - Eflin was been great too but it's mainly because of pinpoint control (second best BB/9 in majors). He gives up hits and while you might that that's a little bit of bad luck (.331 BABIp is high) he's had a little but of luck with homers (8.7 HR/FB rate) to make up for it. He's good though. Corbin has kind of settled into a mediocre middle of not being able to have control and limit homers at the same time. So he can give up bombs with no one on base or put guys on base but keep them in the park. Either way some runs will score. 

I have a hard time seeing the Nats take this series, but they kind of have to. At home against a divisional opponent not much better than they are (if they are at all).  They have to win these series. 2-1 or it's a disappointment.