The Nats could have folded up shop after Max went down but they battled... or at least the pitching did... or maybe San Fran isn't that good like I said and this is just the start of their downfall... I'm losing the point. Oh yes. The Nats didn't disappoint! They had 4 games against the Giants and needed to hold their ground and did. They won two. Given the TB split before that the Nats have had two non-disappointing series back to back. They haven't done that since splitting with Toronto and then sweeping the Marlins at the very end of April, beginning of May.
Such a turn of fortune, however small, needs to be taken with caution though. We are creatures of hope and thus everything pointing in the right direction seems like a turn toward brighter days instead of the randomness of a 162 game season showing itself. What we want is an extended series of GOOD play not a week of not bad. And honestly now is the time for the Nats to show it because good play over the next two weeks can (1) help make up some serious ground in the NL East where the Mets haven't pulled away yet and no other team is better than .500. and (2) can help create some breathing room for a brutal NYM make up, TB(2) , LAD (4) , @SD (4), @SFG stretch into the all star break. We marked off the likely long road back into contention going into August. One step down. Up next - sweep the Pirates!
Hold ground in next 6 (27-35)- Sweep the Pirates at home (30-35)
- Beat the Mets at home (33-36)
- Beat the NL East rivals (PHI 2, MIA 4) away (37-38)
- Survive a brutal pre ASG run (home for NYM(1), TB (2), LA (4) @SD (4) @SF (3)) (43-46)
- Win a homestand vs SD/MIA (47-48)
- Sweep the Orioles away (50-48)
The Pirates are bad. Since peaking at 12-11 they've gone 11-30 and they deserve that record having a bad pitching staff and a terrible offense in 2021. Starting with the terrible offense - it's actually not that bad. The Pirates aren't without a few hitters. Bryan Reynolds is an all-around star type who can hit for good average, good power, and can take a walk. Colin Moran is a step back on everything but that still leaves him as an above average bat. and Adam Frazier, who alternates between good and average years is having a great singly and doubly start to 2021. Jacob Stallings, the catcher, has got pop and patience. Recently the son of Charlie Hayes - Ke'Bryan, is now up and starting and producing. They've been scoring at a much more reasonable pace in June (4.1 R/G) then May (2.9!) But there was a reason that they were so bad a month ago. Everyone after that is awful. Kevin Newman or Erik Gonzalez at short, Ka'ai Tom in LF and Gregory Polanco are horrendous, terrible and terrible respectively. The best bench bat is a below average Ben Gamel. And in particular even though all those guys I mentioned can hit only Reynolds and maybe Ke'Bryan have any power. They are last in the NL in homers, last in SLG. Ke'Bryan makes them average at best.
With an average offense, their big problem becomes the rotation. The Pirates starting staff is a 4 and a 5 and a bunch of AAAA or worse types They have 4 guys who have started more than 7 games with an ERA over 6.50. Their recent addition to the rotation boasts a 5.56 WHIP. No one is pitching well including old Nat prospect Wil Crowe. The Nats do miss Wil and Chad Kuhl who are the worst of it. They do have a surprisingly solid bullpen though that's 7-8 deep, with a killer closer in Richard "Don't call me the guy Michigan didn't give a fair shake to because they were obsessed with playing 'Big Ten' football whatever that means so they'd get rid of me for Brady Hoke who is literally a garbage joke coach" Rodriguez. There isn't a set-up guy but everyone else is better than usable.
JT Brubaker vs Lester - Lester wasn't good against the Rays but he was good enough. His propensity to give up hits I guess plays poorly against this singly/doubly team but I mean he should still manage to go like 6 IP and 3 R. Brubaker has decent control and ok stuff but gets hit and can give up a homer. He's the best the Pirates got and I can see him also going 6IP and 3R. So bullpen game?
Tyler Anderson vs Corbin - Corbin beat the Rays by putting magnets in all the hard hit balls and the Nats gloves. MLB is looking into it. Tyler Anderson is a little bit worse than Brubaker. The kind of guy you'd love to stick at 5 to eat up 5 and probably keep you in the game but maybe spin a gem. Unfortunately he's their 2.
Chase De Jong vs hopefully Scherzer maybe Jefry Rodriguez - Max is Max. Hope for Max. Jefry is very wild and doesn't strike out many but he throws a heavy ball that stays in the park and leads to easy outs. If he has control he can do very well. If not he can be out in 3 innings at 75 pitches having walked in at least one run. De Jong is an arm that pitches innings. He's a bit worse than Anderson and you can see the progression from decent 4 to decent 5 to decent fill-in. But again he's a 3 and not filling in. The good thing for him is it's not the hits that are worse for him as much as the homers and walks and as we discuss - the Nats don't homer and walk up to now.
It's weird to say it but looking at this it's only a slight edge to the Nats in each game. In part this is because Lester is a 4 now and Corbin has been pitching like a 5 and then you have an injury replacement (most likely). But the edge is there and they need to take advantage of it and sweep.
I recognize that you're blue-skying somewhat, but in the (extremely) unlikely event the Nats play themselves within striking distance of a Wild Card? There lurks organizational disaster.
ReplyDeleteMy Spidey-sense detects a team driving for a Wild Card deluded into thinking it only needs a veteran bat to push it over the top. And the veteran bat will be some 33-year-old who once hit 30 home runs--someone like David Peralta, let's say--and the price will be Cade Cavalli.
Stupid? Foolish? Harebrained? Maybe. Inconceivable? No. After all, the Nats believe themselves the ne plus ultra in drafting pitching prospects. They aren't, of course, but they think they are. Cavalli, Schmavalli, they're certain they can always find another one. (They can't draft a big bang hitter--unless a Bryce Harper falls into their lap--if their life depended on it, though.)
Ultimately, this team ain't going anywhere. Time to call it, Harper.
With how Cavalli is trending, he's untouchable unless it's for a big time bat on a team friendly contract. Looking at who could be selling at the deadline...there's not much out there. Jared Walsh? Unproven. Jesse Winker? Breaking out but could be a blip. Castellanos? Old and expensive. Mancini? Good luck negotiating with the Os front office.
ReplyDeleteThe Nats are probably just going to stand pat and hope for the best like last year. And I can't really fault them for it given how the trade market has been the last few years at the deadline. Everyone overvalues prospects and team-friendly contracts far more than they should in my opinion
@SM: looking at the standings, the Nats are much closer to winning the division than to getting a wild card spot. Only one team can win the West, and LA, SD and SF are all way over .500 (I'm waiting for SF to collapse). And only one team can win the Central, and CHI and MIL are both way over .500 and good teams.
ReplyDeleteUnless Max is healthy, Stras comes back and stays healthy, Soto starts really hitting, and Bell and/or Schwarber get a lot better, the Nats have no chance of winning anything. I think they should be sellers, although I fully recognize that they won't get much. Regardless, a few prospects are better than no prospects.
So, here's a barroom hypothetical:
ReplyDeleteLet's say the Nats were forced--for whatever outlandish reason, from contraction to RICO charges--to release their entire 40-man roster, and the other 29 big league clubs were allowed to pick--for free! no trades, no compensation of any sort to Washington--any player (though still honouring his salary).
But there would be only one stipulation: The selected player must be an everyday player. You can have him change positions, but he must be in the regular lineup. No bench jockey, no utility player, no defensive specialist, no pinch-hitter par excellence. On the lineup card every game. (Starting pitchers every fifth day, relievers as often as you want.)
Who, then, on the Nats' 40-man roster would get chosen?
I'll bite. I'm not sure of the structure of this picking (if it's a one round draft or something then this list get's shorter), but I think it's quite a large list given how bad some teams are out there:
ReplyDeleteI'd say every starter: Max, Corbin, Stras, Lester, Ross, Fedde (I mean look at the Pirates rotation)
Relievers: Finnegan, Harris, Hand, Hudson, Rainey, Suero
Position players: Gomes, Castro, Trea, Harrison, Robles, Schwarber, Soto, maybe Zimm, maybe Stevenson.
That's over 50% of the 40-man roster that could be regulars elsewhere, and you could argue for a few more like Bell or Voth. This team isn't bad, it's just mediocre
Not actually meant to draw bites, @Cautiously Pessimistic (to be argued in the barroom of your mind, so to speak). But your summation is bang on. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteBreaking news - Max just went on the DL.
ReplyDelete