That basically said "Good luck getting anything useful back for him"
The other day I went through recent Hall of Fame elected pitchers to see how they fared at the back end of their careers. Max is 36 this year.
Pedro Martinez : Broke at 34 and wasn't good that year. Had a great month at 35. A bad 2/3rds of a season at 36, and then a good two months at 37 before calling it a career.
Roy Halladay : Broke at 35. Had a bad three months at 36 then packed it in (and crashed a plane under the influence killing himself which could have hurt other people and we just basically ignore that because when people die we just say "Hey only the good!" which kind of screws with our society's views on repercussions for dangerous acts and bad behavior but whatcha gonna do)
Not the best start but this is part of what you have to understand. At this age you can break and be done in a minute. Either you can't pitch well anymore or you can't pitch at all anymore. Continuing...
Jack Morris : was middling from 33-35 then had a resurgence after a trade at 36. Was very good for Minn, then solid for Toronto at 37. Then bad at 38 and bleh at 39.
Bert Blyleven : coming off a couple very good years was only ok at 35, a little better at 36, then bad at 37. But then traded and nearly great at 38, before being bad again (39), hurt (40), and less bad (41)
Mike Mussina : was average at 35 and 36, then good at 37, then below average at 38, then close to very good at 39
John Smoltz : ok a tough example because of the stint as a reliever. At 35 he was saving 55 games. He'd be a top notch reliever through 37. At 38-40 he was a very good starter, before getting hurt at 41 and pitching only a great month. At 42 he'd try to comeback but wasn't good
Tom Glavine : good at 35, very good at 36, average at 37, good 38-40, average at 41. bad and hurt at 42.
Greg Maddux : great at 35 and 36, a little better than average 37-40, a little worse than average 41-42
Randy Johnson : PHENOMENAL at 35-38 (that was the D-back contract - 4 Cy Youngs and a WS - the only pitching contract better than Max's in my opinion) Got hurt at 39 and merely good. Phenomenal again at 40. Then good (41), below average (42), good but hurt (43), good (44) and below average and hurt (45)
Max was better than Morris or Blyleven - both borderline cases, Morris was never great like Max and Blyleven had a lower peak at an earlier age. So I'd compare Max more to the other guys. From them you get basically - good through 39, very good through 40 (rested arm), good through 40, better than average through 40, phenomenal through 40 - good to 44. My takeaway from the above is if you have Hall of Fame talent, which Max does, AND you don't get injured you can be effective to 40, maybe usuable past it.
That would put Max as a very good to above average pitcher from 2022 (37) - 2025 (40), if he can stay healthy. To me any Nats plan for getting better again has to include being WS challenging good in 2025. Why? Because if you are Juan Soto you probably are going to want to re-sign only if the team seems to be on the cusp of something. After the past two years and probably the next two going nowhere - you don't want to waste another 2-3 waiting. It seems like Max could be a positive force on 2024-2025 teams. I say keep him. It's a risk but so is any pitcher contract
But also you can ask Max. If he wants to leave to chase another WS - let him. If he tells you he's gone for whatever reason - trade him. If he says he wants to be traded but also come back - definitely deal him. There's no reason to be stupid about this. But if as most players would say - I want to stay, I want a good fair deal. Then sign him and keep him. If you are worried about him being hurt or stinking - sorry to tell you but that's always on the table. See Strasburg (hurt) or Fedde (hurt) or Mason Denaburg (hurt) or Corbin (stinks) or Ross (stinks) or Wil Crowe (formerly high Nats prospect traded away - stinks). These things can happen at any age at any level. You've got greatness confirmed. Sign it and hope it keeps up.
Been following your blog for a number of years. I must say you've begun surpassing yourself. (Love the turpentine you poured into the Roy Halladay wound!)
ReplyDeleteI wonder: Do you feel more loosey-goosey, almost unchained, now that the Nats are (as you've said) irrelevant?
I sure hope so. I want you to be like an 18th century physician, pinching the cheeks of the Nats to see if they're still alive.
Thank you for bringing up the Halladay thing, it bothers me to no end that we don't talk about how reckless he was being and that he's truly lucky that all he did was kill himself. Great pitcher, still deserves to be in the HoF, but it was seriously messed up what he did.
ReplyDeleteAs for Max, trade him if you can get anything is my opinion. The way the trade deadlines have gone the last few years, though, I just don't know if there's much to be gotten
I really like the decision tree - it all starts with talking to Max. I think we should definitely want him around 2022 and onward, but part of that is up to him, and it also doesn't necessarily require extending him today.
ReplyDeleteOTOH, Cautiously Pessimistic is correct -- we probably wouldn't get much back for him anyway as a rental, so we'd better be sure whatever we do and whatever risks we take on are worth it.
Isn't Max a 10-5 guy? which means he can't be traded unless he wants to be. Now he may want to be cause he wants to play on a winner or because he wants to avoid qualifying offer. But ask Max is definitely first step regardless.
ReplyDeleteWhat a beautifully written article on Max. Like the previous poster said you really outdid yourself and your insight is spot on. To be honest I really had no idea that Roy Halladay was impaired when he flew that plane. Honestly, how reckless can you be?
ReplyDeleteGetting back to Max, the Nats need to find out what his thoughts are if they have not already. You really are not to get much if he is 1/2 season rental. My guess is and this is strictly a guess is that Max may want to bet on himself after this season is over like he did when Detroit offered him that huge contract and he turned it down only to sign the Nats for a lot more money. With a lot of money coming off the books at the end of this year (I would not resign Hand or Castro and maybe Schwarber) plus Max's old contract there is money available but the decision ia all up to Max. Im closing the only joy I get in watching the Nats these days is seeing Max pitch every 5th day.
Trade him to the Mets, they need depth and a World Series win.
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