So... could the Nats make the playoffs?
This is a transition season for the Nats. After two years of trying to keep the window open using chewing gum and bailing wire and failing miserably, the Nats are accepting they won't be competitive this year. But just because you accept it doesn't mean it will happen. Can we work out a way that the Nats will be in the hunt for the playoffs this year? Of course we can! I can make the Pirates contenders if I best case scenario everyone on the team. A better question is : how crazy does that work have to be?
Let's start with the biggest factor in the Nats favor. They expanded the playoffs. It's likely that teams in the 83-85 range will make the playoffs, so if the Nats can break .500 they have a shot. How far are they away from .500?
While the Nats only won 65 games last year they were a better team than that. They pythag numbers (runs scored and runs allowed) pegged them at something more like 71 wins and the 2nd and 3rd order wins (trying to peel even more luck away) put them around 77-78. This isn't wishful thinking. The offense had the best BA and OBP in the NL and the 5th best slugging. They should have scored more runs. They lost more games by 2 (12-19) and 3 (8-18) runs that one would think. They should have won more with the runs they did score.
So let's say this is true. Last year's team was a 75 win team that got pretty damn unlucky. They only need to get 6 wins better to do it!
But wait! That can't be the starting point though. They lost Max. And Trea. And Yan and Josh and Schwarber and Zimm and Daniel Hudson. That's lets see... carry the one... factor in the wind... like 10 wins, let's say. Replace them with blank slates and you have a 65 win team. Can they make it from there to 81?
Let's make Strasburg, who gave the Nats nothing last year, around peak Stras. That's 5 wins himself. 70 wins. Corbin is somewhere around his useful 2017 level. That's 3 more. Bingo bango 73 wins. The guys that replace all those won't be nothings... let's replace Max with a 1.5 win guy... 74.5. Gomes with a ROY type Ruiz, let's say 2.5 wins... 77. The other guys... welll they manage not to hurt 1 win 78 total. We're getting close.
Cruz you say! Well yes, we could in theory get 3 wins just from Cruz BUT everyone is getting a Cruz in the NL. Well not a Cruz but a DH. So that will effect the relative wins for everyone. I'll say Cruz gives the Nats a good season, 3 wins, and is about 1.5 wins better than the average DH... 79.5. Hell from here you can "maybe the pen is a little better" the rest of the way. You could probably do that and add 2-3 wins. We're there! The Nats have ~82 wins! Nothing crazy! We didn't ask for Soto's best year ever or Josiah Gray to be a ROY candidate or anything!
Does the NL East getting better matter? Probably not. The Nats tanked against the league last year going a combined 19-38 against the Braves, Mets and Phillies combined. It would hard to do worse even if their improvement doesn't track with the rest of the division. AL Opponent? It is the AL West which is not super strong, Angels & Rangers could be better, Mariners should be less lucky and A's are tanking. But the Nats did a surprisingly decent 10-10 against the AL East last year that was 4 teams deep with 90 wins teams. They probably won't improve on that.
Nope if everything goes right - just right not crazy - the Nats could be good enough to challenge for a playoff spot. The bottom of the playoffs sure but it's there. The division? Probably not. The Braves were a better team than their 88 and haven't made themselves worse. The Mets should have been around .500 and could be much better. The Phillies.... well they could be better than that 82 wins too. Chances of ALL these guys failing in a way that the Nats catch them would be the same as the chances we find another 5 wins for the Nats... unlikely. Could a huge signing (Correa) or a couple smart not huge signings do it? It's possible I guess. I think it would still take at least the Braves falling off.
But playoffs? Maaaybe. It basically does mean there can't be disappointments. Bell can't be close to average. Ross can't be missing all year and have Sanchez bomb. Ruiz can't have growing pains. The pen can't be below average. There also can't be fall-offs from some better-case scenarios. Strasburg can't just be Strasburg for 20 starts, it needs to be close to 30. Corbin can't be usable, he needs to be good. Soto can't be only All-Star level, he has to challenge for an MVP.
But... could the Nats make the playoffs?
Crazier things have happened.*
*Ed note - I do not think they will make the playoffs
10 comments:
So, based on your analysis, and adjusting the math for the real world, I get the Nats to about 65 wins. Maybe 70 if Strasburg pitches 15 games, Corbin doesn't implode, Ruiz is top 5 for ROY, and the bullpen is not the worst in baseball.
"So you're saying there's a chance," then... :)
Seriously, though, yeah, while I'd be ecstatic to see us win games, what I really want to see is individual results. Things like:
* Strasburg come back to the point that, even if he's not STRAS, there's at least a solid expectation that he can be "overpaid three-win guy" instead of "Matt Harvey" following his TOS.
* Similarly, Corbin returning to at least adequacy. Heck, even 2020-grade Corbin would be "reliable veteran innings-eater." I can't really call Corbin "overpaid" in the same way as Stras because he was signed to help us win a WS and, well, we did, but I'd still like to see him do well.
* Ruiz show that he really can be expected to be a frontline catcher for the rest of his Nats years.
* Somebody else--Thomas, Garcia, even Robles--show that they really are an above-average major leaguer. I don't need to see Thomas be Superman, but if he really is a true-talent 115-120 wRC+ kind of guy that would be great. If he can be that and move to LF it'd be more than amazing because "below-average but functional CF" likely translates to "very good LF." If Garcia can be Desmond Mk. II that would be similarly amazing. If Robles can even be who he was in 2019 and no better that would be a productive member of any MLB roster.
* Gray, or another young starter, show up and pitch well. Or better than just well.
* The bullpen at least find some young useful parts. Maybe a reliable closer. Give me one guy who could be the next Tyler Clippard.
tl;dr I don't think the 2022 Nats will reach the playoffs, or even threaten to reach the playoffs. My hope is that the 2022 Nats will give us reason to hope that with more tinkering and team-building, that the 2023 Nats will be in the race. Give me hope that Rizzo can go into next year's offseason with an actual shopping list more specific than "literally everything but RF and C."
If you ask me I'll guess today they are a little worse than last year but win more games. Something in the 73 range. +-8 is on the outskirts of the usual variance for a season, so after that just be about the normal luckiest team in a season
How would these guess-timates change if the Nats were to sign Carlos Correa? At MLBTR and elsewhere they talk about the Nats as one of the more likely landing spots (after the Astros). Some of the ingredients are there: a star not getting the offers that his record deserves, very late in the process (most pieces off the board), AND Boras as the agent. Whether true or not, it seems plausible that Rizzo has told Boras "when you have what you consider the best offer, give me a call and see if we can do something better."
Read a piece saying that Boras went around asking what the bid would be a next year when Correa opts out from the twins. So, yes, but with better Nats timing. Also, can't see Correa and Soto both signing.
@billyhacker. When the Correa deal was announced, I came to the same conclusion about next year being better for the Nats. Has anybody done the math on paying Strasburg, Soto, and another topline slugger in 2024. Surely there must be enough money to field a good team? OR Is that totally dependent on some of the young and cheap working out this year?
@Steve - Let's assume Soto makes 45AAV (may be high, but better to be conservative). That leaves the Nats current payroll with about 55M of wiggle room. You sign Correa at roughly his current AAV (35M), and that leaves 20M. Not a lot to work with when you also need another starter and you have players like Robles facing arbitration. Now you have Corbin coming off the books in 2024, so maybe Lerner will go over the CBT for a couple years? But realistically they have to dump his salary if they hope to sign Soto plus a second slugger plus a #2/#3 type starter to be competitive (and this assumes Garcia/Kieboom/Robles/Thomas are serviceable...)
There's a reason the best teams have a solid mix of homegrown talent and big contracts. The Nats right now have zero homegrown talent to lean on, so to be competitive, they gotta spend well above the CBT (see Mets, New York)
@CP Thank you. Very helpful perspective. Sounds like our best shot for another slugger in 2023/24 would be to resign Bell, who would presumably be less expensiv than Correa.
Overall, it sounds like we need: 1/ Ruiz to become a star; 2/ sell-off again at the trade deadline for more prospects, and 3/ see if Padres would give us a good prospect if we took Wil Meyers for the one remaining year on his contract or some other salary dump?
I'm on the same page as everyone here in terms of what I'd like to happen, but I just can't get over the fact that we didn't send any money to LAD with Trea and Max even though the Dodgers were already over the tax and there was a clear arbitrage opportunity.
I admit there's a chance that the Dodgers have so much money they just weren't interested, and there weren't any FV40/45 prospects to get thrown in for an extra $10M or whatever.
But to me it's more likely that the Lerners, having won a WS, are just fine pocketing a few 10s of millions of dollars during the rebuild and we shouldn't expect them to max out efforts to turn it into a couple of down years instead of a full ~5 year down cycle. (And that might also mean bad news re Soto -- though I also don't really believe Soto about caring about competitiveness over money. Let's see him say no to $450/15 or some such before we read that as anything other than what all players always say.)
Without starting pitching, there is no path to the playoffs. The trifecta of Scherzer, Strasberg and Corbin carried a decent hitting team to the Series in 2019, not vice versa. Mike Trout couldn't carry the Angels, Harper couldn't carry the Phillies and Soto won't carry the Nats.
Rizzo is stuck with a fat contract to Strasberg and, unless SS turns things around, reconstruction is going to be difficult. Very difficult.
Should Corbin and Strasberg turn things around in 2022, even making themselves into solid #3 and #4 pitchers, things look different. Then the development of Cavalli and Clay gets interesting. And maybe Rizzo buys a top line FA pitching lottery ticket, though he's unlikely to get a repeat of his Scherzer payoff.
It's sad to think about, but it has to be considered. If we can't compete before he becomes a free agent, then, aside for the thrilling moments, Soto's best service to the team might be the returns he brings when he gets traded at the deadline.
Slick fielding, an elite rotation and a decent batting team are still the formula. Especially for what Soto is going to cost.
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