Baseball is Coming - My win prediction

And like Winter is Coming in Game of Thrones it portends doom for some*. Like Nats fans!

A couple weeks ago I put in how I thought the Nats might get to the very edge of contention.  It was a non-crazy but everything goes right plan that was helped into play by the expanded playoffs.  Then immediately something went wrong - Strasburg was not ready for a full season - and the plan fell apart.  Oh well.  It's not like anyone here is planning to watch the Nats in the playoffs this October. 

But that begs the question - how do I think the Nats do this year? When I floated the numbers out there I started with the Nats as a 65 win team. We'll start from there

Strasburg obviously isn't peak Stras. He's probably not even half that either in production or number of starts. I'll say he's worth 2 wins this year.  Can Corbin be better? Yes. Around 2017?  Eh, let's cut the difference and say 2 wins too. That's a low bar for someone expected to throw 180 IP. Only three pitchers last year who threw 170IP didn't hit that level - Kyle Hendricks, Jordan Lyles, and yes Corbin. Does Max get replaced by someone ok? Probably not. Let's say they cobble one win together (and the rest of the rotation is about the same).  That gets the Nats to 70.  

Cruz gets you that 1.5 bump over other DHs. Keibert is respectable but not ROY level - another 1.5.  The other replacements are close to a wash 0.5 wins. The bullpen is better but only by the randomness of luck. The talent still stinks. So... 74 wins?  Feels high. 

I said last year's team was a unlucky 75 win bunch. Is this team really only 1 game worse? Taking a look I probably undersold the losses in terms of who left in trying to get the Nats in, but only by a couple games at most. 72 wins? 

Pitching wise it's easy to see what's going on. Yes Max is gone, but he was gone 1/3 of last year too.  Strasburg wasn't here either.  His return - I'm assuming for a decent amount of starts and doing ok, would cover part of Max's departure. Corbin was unusually bad. I'm assuming he's a decent pitcher. That makes up the rest. The rest of the rotation is a mess but it was a mess last year.  The bullpen is trash but the pen was trash last year. It's pretty even.

Offensively the team loses Trea, Schwarber's extremely big burst, Gomes, Harrison and Zim.  Ruiz should cover Gomes. Cruz's advantage over the typical DH gets you back the Schwarber Month of Crushing Awesomeness. Cesar isn't bad. I'm assuming Kieboom, who hurt the team a lot, won't play that much again if he's that bad. I'm assuming Robles isn't a detriment like last year.  Those things kind of make-up Harrison and Zim so really it's only a Trea loss.

I should probably factor in some D issues and certainly worse baserunning.  71 wins? 

It doesn't make much sense but you have to take into account two things. 

1. The Nats were unlucky last year in closer games and "sequencing"**. If that's even they finish with 75 wins.
2. The Nats had some unusually bad performances and injury issues and those are no guarantee to be repeated. Kieboom, Robles, Corbin, Strasburg? They won't do that again (probably)

OK looking at it while there wasn't standout good luck things there probably were a bunch of little good lucks that also won't be repeated. Escobar and Barrera and Riley Adams.  Fine.  I'll go another game down. 70 wins. But that's as far as I can take it without completely going on emotion. 

70 wins

Can they do better? with the guys they are putting out there not much.  Ruiz could do something special. I guess Thomas can be decent. Gray.  They could find themselves in the mid 70s in wins. 

Can they do worse? Oh God yes. 3/4 of the IF could give you less than nothing. Robles and Corbin could be far closer to 2021 than I'm assuming (they certainly looked like it in the Spring). Cruz is ancient and someone is going to catch his bad year. Thomas could bust (I suppose Ruiz could too but I like that guy).  Strasburg could never come back or come back not right. And of course an injury to Soto (or Cruz or Bell) and the offense is non-existant. Plus anyone that's ok proably goes at the trade deadline. Ok wait - didn't think about that. Let's take another game away for the inevitable trade of Cruz and whatever vets are ok in the pen or MI. 69 wins. But more importantly, there's real bust potential here for 100+ losses.

69 wins. 

People hail Davey as a genius for basically doing nothing but watching luck even out in front of him. I get angry. The team doesn't look all that better going forward up here and what will matter is what's going on in the minors. How's Cavalli look? House? Expect a long year.

*I think.  I didn't watch the show.  Fantasy isn't my thing, even if you throw in boobs and blood. 

**think of it as "when you get your hits" Part of that is luck - that the balls find holes all in the same inning rather than spread out.