The Nats played a bunch of games against the Phillies. Maybe like 12. They lost most. But they won yesterday and you are only as good as your last game, or something like that.
One of the lost games was Josiah Gray third straight solid outing. He's now thrown 17 innings in June (yes sadly that's three games, not 2 but in Davey's rare defense it was 309 pitches.) and given up 1 earned run struck out 19, walked 7 and given up only 1 homer. Are the dead balls back? I haven't heard that.
Here's a quirk Gray's best games include most of his FEWEST strikeout ones. 4Ks in 6IP last game, 3Ks in 6IP in another, 5 in 5, 6 in 6, 3 in 5. It's not a clear correlation - he had 9 in 6 and 8 in 5.1 in other solid outings but there is a mild pattern here. However, I'll admit there is probably NOT anything here. While, it could be because he's focused on striking people out that he pitches poorly (getting the ball up and in the zone trying to blow it by someone) but it could just as easily be because he's pitching poorly that he's trying to strike people out (trying to get out of the innings, avoid men on base scoring).
What I will say is that Gray can strike a bunch of people out but striking a bunch of people out is NOT the key to him doing well. It does not seem to be what makes Gray good. What is a key is avoiding homers. Just don't do that and look what you can do!
Luis Garcia continues to hit going 8-17 with 2 doubles in the Phillies series. He is striking out a bit too much, he still only has one walk, and he's not going to have this luck with BABIP forever so there's a down turn coming but the kid can still hit. The longest he's gone without a hit is two games. The difference between a line-up with him in it and one with Escobar in it is night and day. It's 2AM of a moonless night in a dense jungle canopy and high noon in a barren desert in the middle of summer. Damn you Rizzo for making the fans suffer through a couple months of that.
Garcia really should move up in the lineup. Soto/Bell/Cruz are going to be some combo of 2/3/4 so 1st of 5th seem most reasonable. However Davey seems determined to keep Cesar up in the lineup with the possible moving in of Lane Thomas - both of who have exceedingly low OBP*. Garcia doesn't. Putting him up there would make sense. The "post good three" position has been occupied by mostly Ruiz and Yadi. Yadi made sense at the time but as he's faded he's been pulled. Ruiz... eh. I mean I do like him but he's not that good yet to demand this spot not does he have the power you'd traditionally see in a 5/6 batter. Putting Garcia here instead would also make sense.Short of it - more ABs for Garcia please.
The Nats could go on a little streak here in what is their easiest stretch of baseball this season. Orioles, then Texas, then home for the Pirates and Marlins. Twelve games. Can you guys give the fans .500? 7-5? Just one run of decent baseball that fans can enjoy? They were able to go 6-4 real early in the year facing a not right Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Arizona, so it's possible. Make it happen guys, because I don't see where the next run would be without a bit of luck or surprise.
*for the extremely rare double Davey defense - so does EVERYONE on the Nats not named Soto, Bell or Cruz.
Off topic, a bit. It's not easy to be as bad as the Nats have been this year. They suck.
ReplyDeleteThe roster doesn't forecast this level of suckitude.
Soto, Cruz, Bell. Ruiz, Franco and lately Garcia. They're not stars, but they're also not the core of 100 game losers.
Is it all down to starting pitching? Nats entered the season without a plan. Strasberg was damaged goods, a pipe dream. Corbin was/is a lost cause. Ross, like Strasberg, was set to fail. Gray has done about what was expected. But the rest have pitched as per whats written on their baseball cards. AAAA replacement level.
So the question. Is it fair to assume that even Jim Bowden was better able to rustle up a set up starters with no budget than this years Rizzo? Did he really believe there would be competitive spark? Or did he just say this is a "fuck-it" season and leave Davey to sort out the mess?
Hey, now, @Nattydread. What a lovely can of speculative worms you've opened. Or springboard you've built. Or barroom talk you've provoked. Or something like that.
ReplyDeleteNot sure I agree that the players you've listed shouldn't comprise a 100-loss team, but that's beside the point. I kind of like your "fuck-it" theory, but I wouldn't discount cognitive dissonance or delusion, either.
The last 20 years have produced roughly 3 dozen 100-loss seasons, most before 2016 and most of those by the same 8 or so teams. Of those 100-loss teams, only 4 have recovered to win a World Series.
Both the Cubs and Astros won their World Series 4 years after their last 100-loss season. It took 9 years for the Royals, and exactly 10 years for the Nats to win theirs. In that same span, the Giants won 3 World Series and Boston 4 without ever losing 100 games.
To me, watching a team rebuild is one of the more compelling aspects of baseball. Sure, dodgy and/or incompetent ownership can play a crucial part. But the process itself is, like Lebowski's rug, what holds my scatterbrained interests in baseball together.
Yeah, the Nats stink and will continue to stink for a while yet. Some teams recover faster than you might think, others longer, others never. If Bogart always had Paris, at least we'll always have Harper.
It’s absolutely a fuck it season, I read a lot more into Rizzo’s ability as a talent evaluator from his 13ish years as GM and a successful scout before that. The Lerners weren’t opening up their checkbook this year. The team’s underperformed a bit, possibly due to some weird decisions (like keeping Garcia down) but it was always going to be a rebuild year unless a bunch of young players instantly got their shit together (like CAAAArter Kieboom).
ReplyDeleteWhat still mystifies me a bit, beyond the simple explanation of “pitching is hard,” is why Corbin lost his stuff so suddenly. I know there’s been writing on his release point, wonder if batters now see his release better and see what’s coming more often now?
*time as a successful scout
Delete"Fuck it" makes it seem like Rizzo didn't care, but I would say his plan wasn't to have a top pitching staff. I suspect he thought the rotation would be middling once Stras and Ross were back...unfortunately neither of them came back (really). So it was more of a "fuck it for the first couple months" approach that fell apart (semi-predictably).
ReplyDeleteAs for Corbin, I think the big thing has been locating his slider and a loss of fastball velocity, both of which can be explained by age probably. The slider doesn't have the break it used to, landing at the back foot of righties. And if you can't bury the slider, it makes it pretty hittable. And the velo being down means you can't play the fastball up, slider down sequence as well since a hitter can sit on the fastball and then mash a hanging slider.
I think the plan for this year was to play the veterans, hope they do well, and trade them all at the deadline in the likely event it was not a winning team. Then spend the rest of the season after the deadline giving every promising player in the farm system the opportunity to show they belong in the majors. Next winter becomes the time to rebuilid the team based on which of the team needs can't be met from the farm system + incoming prospects from the trades.
ReplyDeleteThe 100-loss pace (as opposed to just losing a lot) is unexpected--partly because the veterans aren't doing that well and partly because of the miscues and mistakes on the field.(don't we lead the majors i errors and the baserunning has been kindergarden level).
The pitching try-outs have already started, Garcia was too good to stay on the farm. Otherwise, the plan (good or bad) is still in place. Any veteran not good enough to be traded may find themselves with reduced roles to allow the position player try-outs. Don't be surprised if Riley Adams is playing first base on August 5--they need to see if he gets better playing every day.
Garcia batting 5th in tonight's lineup - I guess this shows how closely Davey follows Harper's blog.
ReplyDelete