The Nats 2nd window success could easily be summed up in three contracts; the signing of Max, the extenion of Strasburg, and the signing of ZNN by the Tigers. You have to get your big time long term contracts right and the Nats nailed all of these. Max's contract is probably the second best of all time behind Randy Johnson's 4-year, 4 Cy Young, WS winning deal. Strasburg was looking at free agency after 2016 and the Nats signed him to a 7 year extension through 2023 with an opt out after 2019. From 2017-2019 Stras would start 83 games (which is good for him) to a 3.15 ERA and have his best three year stretch culminating in a dominant playoff performance on the way to the 2019 title. Zimmermann would get hurt in 2016 and never be the same, struggling through five injury plagued seasons.
The Nats made three moves and went three for three emphatically.
The Nats pitching staff now was based on three more moves; the signing of Patrick Corbin, the re-signing of Strasburg after he did opt out, and the letting now franchise icon Max walk. Corbin paid immediate dividends with a great 2019 and needed playoff performance. But since then he's possibly been the worst starter in baseball. Strasburg has started all of 8 games since signing the extension. Max, was MAX for the Mets, but currently is out with an injury. Things seem to be progressing well (he is currently stated to be back on the 6 week side of a 6-8 week time frame) but the jury will be out until at least a couple contract years are through.
The Nats made three moves and, on a long term health of the team scale, have gone zero for two with one incomplete.
These misses mean a the third window just doesn't exist. The Nats can't be good, pretty much no team can be good, without top of the line starting pitching. The Nats don't have that and can't afford* to get it. This being the case... well it really brings to mind what Soto means going forward. There is no path to being good soon (re: 2023 and 2024) without Strasburg or Corbin outside of miracles** That being the case does it change the math on keeping Soto. If you aren't really building but spinning wheels to see if you will build in 2024, if you are afraid of him walking in 2025 and gutting what your plans are...
Again Soto's future is going to depend on who buys the team, but ideally you'd want a clear path for a competitive team in 2025 so Soto is not just a draw but a big part of a team good enough to bring in a money with winning.
ANYWAY
Strasburg is hurt. You can read about it here. The good news is that it's not his shoulder or arm. The bad news is that it hurts and he doesn't want to pitch while it hurts. I mean more so, pitching I assume hurts to some known level. While stuck in a meaningless season Strasburg will try to heal up first and you can't blame him. But the question then becomes, if every season is meaningless, why pitch again?
*Of course they CAN afford to, but we're talking in the MLB world of what teams generally will and won't do. They WON'T pay for it. They'll say they can't and point to revenues and payrolls and fans and media will mostly buy it because that's what every ownership group says
** Cole Henry is a star! Cade Cavalli is a solid 2! Gray clicks and is also a 2! Garcia is a star! Ruiz clicks and is a star!*** De La Rosa is a fast rising ROY!
*** I actually like this one
I don't think the glass is actually half full, but here is the glass-half-full view: (1) it's not an arm injury; (2) the very best results from pitchers who've had thoracic outlet surgery are fleeting success - a few pretty decent half-to-three-quarter seasons; (3) this suggests that post-TOS pitchers have a finite number of MLB-quality innings they can throw; (4) Strasburg using up some of those finite innings for the 2022 Nats is a total waste: if we can divert those innings to later seasons when they might matter more, that's a win.
ReplyDeleteMy actual view is that Strasburg is headed for four more seasons just like this one. What's the over-under on the highest number of innings he'll pitch in a single MLB season going forward? If it's 100, I take the under. Anybody take the over on 50?
". . . a competitive team in 2025 ."
ReplyDeleteSo, 2 years away from being a year away. Finally, a more realistic appraisal than what some of the Pollyanna-ish commentators have offered on your blog.
This organization is currently a mess, from scouting, drafting and player development right up the line to ambivalent ownership. Nothing more bracing than a splash of truth.
Gotta go. Readying myself to watch Austin Voth manhandle the Blue Jay bats!
I think the more frustrating thing is that we're staring at a team that will be mediocre in 2024 and stuck on the fence about what to do. Realistically, Garcia, Ruiz, Gray, Cavalli, and Henry are all pretty good bets to simply be "solid" with maybe one star and one replacement level player in there. What does that get you to? With other just-above-replacement level signings, maybe an 80 win team? That's not so bad that you go the full teardown route and sell any player above replacement level to rebuild the farm, and not good enough to make a big FA signing move the needle. Nats are currently stuck in limbo and it's going to take a good amount of luck in either direction to get out of it (or some major cajones to sell everything this year).
ReplyDeleteThe Nats in the bardo, @Cautiously Pessimistic.
ReplyDeleteLocal Braves fan, Nats season tickets holder here. The Braves’ AJ Minter had TOS before being drafted and has ultimately recovered quite nicely. Of course he was much younger and has been a reliever since then. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/phil-hughes-and-the-sobering-history-of-thoracic-outlet-injuries/
ReplyDeleteAccording to Fangraphs the outcomes for older pitchers and TOS surgery is quite negative.
I hope Strasburg recovers. I’m a big fan of local talent staying and he was so exciting during the 2019 World Series.
However, even if he doesn’t he put up a fine career with a few shining moments.
I'm actually ok with Soto getting traded for a good haul of solid prospects and a couple of young proven MLB players. Given the poor farm system and lack of good starting pitching it's probably one of the few ways back to contention for the Nats.
ReplyDelete@Chas I do not think there is a trade that makes sense for anyone re: Soto. No team is going to blow up their system to pay what he would truly cost for just one guy. You're talking, at minimum, a club's two best prospects, a young MLB-ready guy with a high ceiling and probably a couple of above-replacement MLB players. Not worth it for anyone.
ReplyDeleteYeah Soto's not getting traded for at least another year. Price would be way too steep right now. But if someone turned around and offered that farm busting type of trade at the deadline, I'd take it in a heartbeat.
ReplyDeleteThey won't get enough back for Soto to justify trading away a top player. What they really need is to replicate the Gonzalez, Roark, and Ross/Turner trades. The first step, finding players on the Nats roster who suck, is the easy part. Finding trade partners who for some reason overvalue those specific players...could be trickier.
ReplyDelete@elchupi no one will trade for Soto the value he's worth to *a contending team*. But lots of teams would value him more highly than a Nats team that won't contend before he leaves. That's a painful trade but the Nats can only choose between losing him or trading him. Two top 50 - 20 ranked prospects, plus a couple unranked lottery tickets is both underwhelming and worth more than not winning with him.
ReplyDeleteA riskier plan is letting him decline in value with bad coaching, demoralizing seasons, and a lineup that doesn't let him see pitches. He'll have the same trade value, but could conceivably be extended (if things go badly enough for long enough). Obviously, since the return is capped, they don't have an incentive to trade him until the all star game of the year before he becomes a free agent. Crappy incentives all around.
very interesting i had been tring this info
ReplyDeleteAm I living in a dreamland? I don't understand why a marquee frontline starter signing isn't a potential option for the team. Our payroll next year is laughably low even with the two albatross contracts from Corbin and Stras, and we can moderately backload the cash for when Corbin clears after 2024.
ReplyDeleteMy assumption even with a healthy Stras is that the #1 for the team isn't on the team right now. We need to fill #2-5. Would be a lot easier if Stras is 2 though.
One more homerun and Bell will generate a spontaneous trade off this sad team
ReplyDeleteOnly in Washington do you play your way off the team by being good.
ReplyDeleteSome continuity there with the Expos teams of my youth
ReplyDelete@Anagramsci: OMG! Don't go there. It still hurts.
ReplyDelete@anon 9:53 @DK
ReplyDeleteSeriously. Look at the Angels. Why can't other teams keep free agents around even though they never win anything? They kept their generational superstar, added two more big contracts just so that they can miss the playoffs by slightly fewer games, AND they had $ left over to bribe city officials for stadium deals.
@kubla--I was about to point to the Angels and Mike Trout as an example for extending Soto. But you made the case way better.
ReplyDelete