Monday quickie - reviewing the rest

The trade people that were in the majors are the last to be reviewed.  And with a bit more depth. 

Keibert Ruiz.  The kid is a starting catcher. He played it all year. People loved his defense though the stats would put it around average. His bat was also around average. The questions of whether or not he'd develop power was answered with "not this year" but he continues to put the ball in play regularly and singles and doubles enough to be ok. The end result - average to maybe slightly above average fielding, average to maybe slightly below average hitting, gives the Nats a plus position at the hard to fill position of catcher. Not a big plus but a plus.

He's a cornerstone then for the next half-decade. However, unless he really steps up on defense, or develops power (or patience but I'll always bet on power first) he's just something not to worry about. Which don't get me wrong is very nice to have. You need guys like this to compliment the better players, and you usually try to find them at positions like C. But the Nats don't have better players so if Ruiz could improve a little and be one of those better players, that would be a big lift for the team going forward.

Josiah Gray - it's was the ok of times, it was the worst of times.  That pretty much sums up Gray's year. He did have one "best of times" stretch - 5 games from the end of May all through June where he put up a 1.24 ERA/ A little lucky sure but it gave you the idea of what can happen for a pitcher pitching well when he gets the breaks. But his other stretches were more just ok, starts 2-5 and a few starts toward the end of August. That would have been ok if his bad times were merely bad. ERAs in the 5.00s maybe a bad luck 6 run, so he evened out for an ERA in the lower to mid 4.00s. A perfectly acceptable first full year and a perfectly usable arm.  But they weren't merely bad. He pitched to deserved ERAs in the 7s and 8s. 

He ended up leading the NL in walks, and leading the majors in home runs, and no one was really close on the latter. If he pitched a full season of 33 starts, he projects to 45 homers, which would put him at 6th all time for a season and that's in 25 to 100 innings fewer than 1st through 5th.  The point is - one of these has to change. He either needs to become very stingy with walks or stop giving up homers. If he can he has the potential to be a very good starter. If he can't he's going to man the back of the Nats rotation. But no one seems to think the Nats coaching staff are the ones to fix him and looking at his stats staying stable from last year to this, that may in fact be right.  Gray, heal thyself.

Lane Thomas - in a rare nice surprise for the Nats Lane Thomas was fine. He doesn't hit for average, but his average isn't bad. He doesn't walk, but it's not like he has NO walks, he doesn't hit for power but it's not like he hits for NO power. His defense isn't great but he can certainly man a corner and can play CF in a pinch. He's an ideal 4th OF for a good team, a stretch 3rd OF for a not good team, and the best OF for the worst team in the majors.*

If this is who he is, and it probably is, then the Nats would be wise to deal him if he ever gets hot. He's likely peaking now and some team is probably going to want a cheap 3rd OF for a playoff stretch in 2023 or 2024 and you can maybe see him bringing back a better lottery ticket than he was in that case. But more likely he keeps playing as is, doesn't present great values in return and stays playing for the Nats until up for FA. And like Ruiz that's fine. Those two could be the bottom of the order for a playoff team. You want to plug holes with these types. The problem is right now all the Nats are doing it plugging holes.

Mason Thompson - a Padre guy got for Daniel Hudson, he looked pretty good this year. He probably didn't pitch as well as his 2.92 ERA would indicate but he was also injured so a fully healthy Mason would be expected to do better. I'm not sure there's a closer or even a set-up man here - he's a GB guy who let's them hit it. But there's a useful bullpen arm here and another piece to what I think could be a fairly decent pen over the next few years. For all the good it will do keeping losses from being big ones. Stay healthy and let's see who Mason is over an extended time but for now. He's something and that's more than can be said of most of the returns from sell-offs before 2022.

Riley Adams - He's a catcher, but really an emergency third catcher, the kind of guy that plays it if necessary or if he hits so well you can't not play him and you have a DH and 1B already.  Riley does not hit that well. He does have some power. If he played all year he might lead this Nats team in homers if Voit had an off year. But he'd also hit under .200 and strike out close to 200 times and by lead the Nats I mean hit like 20 homers not 40. They tried to put him in the minors and teach him first, in part because that's where the space is on the Nats with Ruiz behind the plate, in part because not catching sometimes helps the bat wake up.  It did not. The simple truth is Adams swings and misses too much. Right now he's borderline a major leaguer. He is what he is - maybe the worst player on the bench of the worst team.  I have to think he'll start the year as org filler with Meneses starting at 1st, and Yadi or Voit or whoever else they want to get at bats there when Joey sits.  If he can get red hot or things break in the majors we could see him again, but it's just as likely he sits in Rochester.  A miss. But hey it was for Brad Hand so what did you expect?

Luke Voit - Still not a free agent until after 2024 (he played 100 games before his age 28 season) Voit can serve a very important purpose for the Nats by hitting next year like he did in 2020 and get traded away for something good.  Luke is what a guy like Adams wants to be.  Sure he'll strike out close to 200 times but give him 150 games and he'll probably slug 30+ homers and that is useful. If he gets hot though he can get that average up and challenge 40 homers and that's more than useful that's good. As long as he's here you can expect Luke to probably not hit over .250 but to probably hit some homers inbetween strikeouts from the DH spot. He's unlikely to just Nelson Cruz given he's only 32 but it could happen. That's how it works with guys that strike out this much.

CJ Abrams - finally another real prospect! You probably heard good things about Abrams at the end of the year.  Unfortunately they were mostly cherry picked as he did not play overall well for the Nats. BUT he did have nearly a month where he hit .333.  Did he homer?  No. Did he walk? No.  Seriously ZERO walks - he did get HBP once. So it wasn't a great stretch but it suggests great stretches are possible. Hit .333 with a little patience and a little power as opposed to none and none and you have something very good. 

He also seems like he is an actual shortstop. Garcia, he made errors... when he got to the ball. He can't play short stop. I REPEAT : LUIS GARCIA CANNOT PLAY SHORTSTOP.  Abrams, he'll get to the ball, maybe better than 90% of the other SS in baseball. But he had a lot of errors.  If he can cut those down he'll be a good, maybe great, shortstop.

This makes Abrams a sneaky key for the Nats. He almost certainly in my mind, become the SS of the future, playing the position at a level that is worthwhile. And as it's another tough position to fill if he can hit a little better than puts him with Ruiz and Thomas as perfectly acceptable players. Meaning they have two of the hardest positions SS and C filled. That's great. But also... that's it. The Nats can't have anymore "just ok" players. They need 6 good ones - really like 3 good ones, 2 great ones and a superstar. Thomas is likely who he is. Ruiz seems to be settling. Abrams is the great unknown and as that he is the one that gets the most burden on being much better with the bat in the future. If he is, you can start to see the Nats path back. Garcia being good, Hassell being good. Someone ok at 1B... the offense pieces together.  If he's not better, then the Nats have no leeway. They need everything to work out hitting wise and that usually doesn't happen.

So looking up these guys for the most part worked out, as you would expect since they were in the majors. But there isn't a star among them yet which means everyone else would have to work out that way. That's a tough roll of the dice to bet on. No, the Nats need something to click here. It won't be from Adams - who isn't good, or Voit who is too old and better served as trade bait. Thompson's role is too limited to really matter. It has to be from someone else. Ideally more than just one but one at an absolute minimum from Thomas, Ruiz, Gray, and Abrams has to step up in a big way.  The Nats got value back, they got major leaguers they could pay cheap the next 5 years. That's good and necessary but it isn't winning. Winning requires more.

*If you are wondering why the Cardinals let him go - they have three younger OF who all are as good as Thomas now and might be better. They have two older OFs who probably are better. There's no place for him.