Prospects Rankings!

 Baseball America says the Nats have actual prospects! 

• Wood 11 
• Hassell 57
• Green 58
• Cavalli 61

There are kind of two things to judge... ok THREE things to judge here. 

1) What happens to guys around this level? Obviously baseball isn't introducing 100 new stars every year. Not 50, not 20, not even 10. Just a couple of great players come into the league each year.  If you think about a 60 man All-Star game and 15 year careers, it would be about 4 a year. So consider that before getting too excited. 

2)  Are guys going up or down? The level is the level but you prefer guys exceeding expectations or at least maintaining it, than losing momentum.

3) Age/level. How much of this is possibility and how much is reality? They bake these things in a little bit but you still have to think about it a little.Especially when you think about 1.  A 24 year old at 50 and a 19 year old at 50 might in theory have the same general expectation but they have much different variances. (IOW the 19 year old could break out in the minors over the next 2+ years, the 24 year old is likely to enter the majors now and be ok).

James Wood - 20 in 2023 - Low A - unranked last year :  Around this level you are looking at guys they like to be impact players, but it's still a gamble. In 2020 you had Pache and Kelenic at that level. Robles sat around there for a couple years. It's not a bad spot to be in, but if you want Wood to be a star, you'd like to see him tick up closer to Top 5 before he's ready for a call up. The age and level and immediate bump up from nowhere to nearly Top 10 suggest people think it's possible. At this level you are setting Wood's floor as "major leaguer".

Robert Hassell - 21 in 2023 - AA - 30 last year : the middle of the Top 100 is filled a big mix, everything from the occasional All-Star to guys that never made it.  But the general sense is a competent baseball player with youth and level giving the player a bit more potential of something more.  Hassell is young and at a nice level so the possibility lies of a bump up. He did drop presumably for two reasons. He didn't develop another power level as hoped and he struggled in the Nats org after hitting for the Padres.  One assumes that if either of those changes he'd be back around where he was last year. But if he doesn't, he could fall to the bottom.

Elijah Green -  19 in 2023 - Rookie - unranked last year (not in minors yet) : The most complete guessing game. He has the physical talent. He did very well in rookie ball. People like to bet on these types.  Me I'm looking at 21Ks in 52 PAs and getting worried. But who knows? Let's get him a full year in Low A and see.  Complete guess work ranking you make because you don't like it when a guy like Wood hits great in a handful of rookie league games you DON'T rank him and then all of a sudden he rocks Low A too. Better to put a guy at 60 and let him go up to 10 or off the ranking than, keep him off because you haven't seen enough and then want him in your Top 20. So yeah I'm saying this ranking is a complete coin flip cover your butt ranking.

Cade Cavalli - 24 in 2023 - AAA - 27 last year : He looked ok in AAA last year. Hard to hit and kept the ball in the park, but walked a couple more than he should and didn't K quite as many as you like. It makes you wonder if he can keep enough major leaguers off the bases. He's dropping as last year's ranking was in part about a fast rise and holding his own and by some continued flashing of impressive K numbers. He couldn't repeat the former last year and didn't repeat the latter. They'll be wanting to see K/9 numbers well over 10 and a drop in BB9, if only modest, in AAA to feel better about Cavalli. He's got this year really to do it because at 25 you want him in the majors full time.

TLDR : They like Wood as a player and maybe a star. They like Hassell as a player but not as a star. They think Green has all the potential to be like Wood. They are souring on Cavalli.

Some other updates from last year :

Keibert Ruiz 11 - He's now an official major leaguer.  If you want to see what an 11 means.

Brady House 59 - hurt last year and off this year. He was essentially the Green of last year. Hit in rookie, put in middle of the pack to cover the chance he could do well. Didn't. Dropped off and no one says anything about the ranking last year. 

CJ Abrams 9 - Everyone really did like Abrams to be a star and he flirted with that "we're saying as close to a sure thing as we can" but didn't quite get there. Was everyone wrong? It happens. But there's potential for more here still.