Walk, Don't Run. Wait, don't walk either

 First off listen to "Walk, Don't Run"  

 OK done? 

Based of the signing of never-walker Corey Dickerson, Commenter Anagramsci made an off-handed comment that the Nats are trying to set a record for the fewest walks ever for a team. Now of course that can't be true - baseball has been around for too long and has too many weird periods for this to work. A lot of those early seasons were not even 154 games and played under different rules. But is it possible. 

First let's look at the Nats. The Nats finished 14th in the NL in walks taken last year but the two biggest walkers were Juan Soto (91 in 101 games) and Josh Bell (49 in 103).  By rate you can imagine they even more dominate the team if they were the leaders despite only playing 60% of the season in DC.  Soto is one of the premier patient bats in baseball today, walking 20.9% of the time last year and Bell walked 11.2%.  Next best for the Nats was Nelson Cruz (9.7%) also gone.  They also traded Ehire Adrianza (8.5%) and have since dropped Cesar Hernandez (7.3%) and Luke Voit (7.1%) who were all in the Nats Top 10 in rate

So who's left?  Well if you don't care about small sample size Alex Call (9.6%) is ok, but he might not play much. Then it's Riley Adams (7.7%) but he might not play at all. The first real starter for 2023 is Lane Thomas at 7.5%.  

We'll stop here for some context.  What is the average walk rate in the MLB? 8.2%  Is the NL any different, possibly with a lingering pre DH approach? Slightly higher at 8.4%. The short of that is that the most patient returning starter bat for the Nats is below average. 

Ok but the Nats don't have a lot of full-time returning bats. Thomas, Ruiz (6.9%), Robles (4.3%!), Garcia (2.9%!!!!) and these guys are young. Maybe there is a newcomer who will walk? Or a young guy who might had an off year? Let's go around the diamond :

• Ruiz - no he's never walked
• Meneses - (6.3% in 2022) - not a walker
• Garcia - nope
• Abrams - (1.7%!!!!!!!!!!!! - he walked 2 times for the Nats last year) very limited stats even considering minor leagues but early indications are hahahahahah
• Candelario - (6.0%) maybe.  He had been an above average walker, say in the 10% range, for his career until last year and patient in the minors. If he's right he's a decently patient hitter likely to be above average.
  
• Smith - (7.9%) this was one of his better years. He's probably more likely to be around where Thomas was last year. 7-7.5. Below average but not terrible 
• Thomas - another maybe. historically he's walked more with more ABs until last year. One might think he was trying to prove something last year and he'll settle down this year into an above average spot? Or maybe teams just figured out how to pitch to him
• Robles -  there are other things the guy might get back to doing well, walking is not one of those. 
• Dickerson - (4.0%) nope

This is alarming.  You have one good bet to be above average in Candelario and one I'd call coin flip in Thomas and 7 guys who should range from below average to will never walk.

Hmmm what about Ildemaro Vargas?  Definitely not. Does not walk. Alex Call? Yes. If he plays he will probably walk above average.

I don't know Jeter Downs? Actually pretty possible, if he can hit. Minors are good. Jake Alu? No. Adams or Pineda if Ruiz gets hurt? A yes on Adams, presuming same as Downs. A no on Pineda.

So it's bleak. The Nats should be WELL below average with an off chance of just being below average if the right guys make it into the lineup and can hit ok enough that they get pitched to in a way that will allow them to walk.  (remember the goal here is just walking. A Call/Downs/Adams lineup would likely be terrible for other reasons) 

Ok so let's throw out a guess of rate - say 6.5% that's probably the high bar.  And of PA. They had almost 6000 last year. Let's just say that for now.  That would be 390 walks. Where would that put them all time for 161/162 game seasons? 

Pretty solid - 25th worst! Tied with the 2017 Royals. 

What do they need to be the worst? Technically the record is held by the 1904 Tigers and 344 wlaks who played 162 games thanks to 10 ties? Look it was strange times. Let's go with the 1966 Cardinals and 345 walks. That's a 5.75% walk rate for the year with 6K PA*  Can the Nats do it?

Without Soto, Bell and Cruz their walk rate was .... 5.47%.  Signing Candelario was a bad move but guys... there's a real chance here. 

(oh the post title - the Nats don't steal either but no one does)

*They had 5964.  It's very consistent around 6K, with more likely slightly over than under.  The Nats will either have to really stink or walk a little less.