Keibert Ruiz signed a contract extension with the Nats. It's 8/50 with two club options. It pays his well over what he would be paid for the next two years (when he is pre-arb and basically paid a major league pittance) over what we would be paid for the three years after that (when he is arb... he'd probably make less the first year, more the last it's a little bump) and under what he would get in those last three years. It's a little front loaded with 25 mill coming in the arb years meaning something less than that will come in the three FA years. But it's probably like 22 million. I assume he's not getting paid that much more the next couple years and I wouldn't be surprised if the options were for pretty big money.
Is it worth it? Definitely. Keibert is already a league average type catcher with solid defense and high contact offense. If he can either find patience or develop power he can make himself into an average bat and very valuable. That's because catchers stink, or at least the current catcher situation in MLB. Keibert isn't necessarily a plus player in general. His offense is below average and his D doesn't make up for that. But he IS almost a plus player for a catcher. And being that at 24 in his second full year means there's a good chance he can improve making this deal a steal.
FWIW - If you've read this blog I've been high on Ruiz. I think he can develop top notch D skill and while I think patience will never come, if he can up that power just a tick you've got a guy who may be All-Star caliber at the low bar of catcher for a fill-in price.
Smart move. Love it. Do Garcia next.
There was a second round of cuts today Names might be a bit more familiar.
Jake Irvin - nothing special. AAA starter
Jordan Weems - all the stuff but past the age you think he could develop.
Cory Abbott - another AAA starter. Guys like him and Irvin shouldn't see the majors for a good team outside the rare emergency start
Matt Cronin - A lot of talk about him this spring as the Nats don't have lefties in the pen and he might be one. I guess not. We'll likely see him again either because he's forced the issue or because the major league team just needs that arm.
Jackson Rutledge - high draft pick who has been hurt and struggled but shows some interesting flashes. Worth giving a year or two in AA to see what happens
Drew Millas - someone must love this kid because I don't see it. At 24 this year Ruiz is signing a decade long deal. At 25 this year Millas is hoping to break .225 in AA.
You know these things do kind of fit together. A reason the Nats might have signed Ruiz long term is that their organization is a wasteland of catching. Israel Pineda might be ok. After him though there is nothing close to looking capable of playing in the major leagues. These odd looks at Millas and Brady Lindsly might have been confirming that dearth of talent before this deal.
On the talent -
I don't think I'm being pessimistic. Most guys end up as nothing. If all top minor league talent became good major leaguers we'd be flooded with great players. The Nats system probably peaked between 2011 and 2012. Getting up near the #1 ranking, this was their Top 10
- Bryce - star
- Rendon - star
- Goodwin - part time major leaguer for a while
- Alex Meyer - never could stay healthy, 19 ML starts
- Matt Purke- briefest coffee cup
- Sammy Solis - unimpressive reliever
- Lombo - folk hero but replacement ballplayer
- Destin Hood - slightly less brief coffee cup
- Chris Marrero - pretty bad 150 ML PAs
- MAT - defensive CF specialist
This is not unusual. This is typical. And in fact the fact all 10 of these guys made the majors is a testament to how good it was. But there isn't a major league core here, and to think you can get it from one minor league class is wishing for a lot more than most teams ever get. And that's with arguably the BEST minor league system which the Nats don't have. A core is built over time over several minor league classes and smart trades and good FA signings.
The idea that the Nats offense will turn into something good AND the starters will all be 2-3 types so they can pop in a couple FA signings and be competitive in 2025... that's a bridge too far and I hope I can get you to see that. Hope for that core offense C-2B-SS-CF to look ok at the end of this year so it can be built on. Hope for one of the starters to look like a 2-3-4 so it can be built on. But understand building will be needed. Without massive luck this isn't a team that's going to compete in 2024, and likely not seriously in 2025 either. And without spending a good deal more that's where it will end. The first steps are now, let's hope for forward movement so the next steps can come.
6 comments:
Harper, I think you need to distinguish between "massive luck" and "ordinary luck." You correctly identify that it would be unusual for any franchise's top ten prospects to become real MLB contributors. But it's also true that middling prospects (e.g., outside a franchise's top ten) become useful MLB players (and sometimes even stars) on a regular basis. Some franchises - Dodgers, Cardinals - seem to have this happen regularly, so there is surely some secret sauce out there that the Nats almost certainly don't have. But I think it's absolutely true that "ordinary luck" would result in a lower-ranked prospect (or total non-prospect) becoming a real contributor to a good MLB team. In other words: the Bryces and the Rendons matter, but so do the Tanner Roarks. We should also expect a Tanner Roark or two to emerge over time with just ordinary luck. The problem of course is that there is absolutely no way to identify these diamonds in the rough ex ante.
Counting a team's top ten prospects and saying "a full core is not here" is just not a rigorous way to set expectations.
But I agree with your overall premise: this system is not as good as the 2012 system, primarily because there is no Harper (making Rendon a sure thing is total hindsight bias - there were some outlets that said Goodwin was a better prospect at the time, and his primary problem was injuries, which could have derailed his career entirely - the 2023 Nats' prospect list has a few guys with risk profiles similar to Rendon - including $200M star as a plausible outcome - but the source of their risk is different compared to Rendon).
In other news, the actual current face of the franchise Joey Menses is still hitting homers. Does the world baseball classic get the same caveats as spring training stats?
Cavalli is getting an MRI on his elbow. One image you have to get used to as a Nats fan is seeing Paul Lessard walking along side an injured player, both with their heads down, as they exit the playing field (likely never to be the same again).
Our inability to develop our young pitchers (via draft or international pool) is astounding.
@Ole PBN. I understand your larger point about needing better player development. Hopefully, that has been accomplished and we just need to wait for the results to show (it takes time!).
But the part about injuries might be too "in the moment" and not quite fair. I read MLBTR every day and have been noticing how many stories there have been about Spring Training injuries, particularly to pitchers. And I have been thinking: wow, we have been lucky so far, especially compared to some other teams like the Mets. Being Harperesque--we have some regression to the mean; not sure there is anything more here. Let's just hope that whatever happened to Cavalli can be addressed quickly and well.
Anon @ 8:51 - outside a team's Top 10... yeah it happens but more likely it would be someone not on the team's list NOW that get on it because of a decent year. The Roarks - going from off the radar completely to multi-year MLB players in a season are pretty rare. But the "massive luck" was referencing being good in 2024. I still think that applies even understanding what you say. If there are a couple of solid contributors - like at a Roark level - I think it'll be a couple years for them to fill out. Unless the team supplements with spending 2024 just doesn't look like a competitive year to me. (I'd also bet on 2025 too BUT I think that's far enough off that I could easily be wrong. And 2026 on is just a big old question mark. Anything 3+ years out is just too far out)
If the Nats fans really want hope I'd say even though 2023-2025 looks down, 2026 on is basically a huge unknown for EVERY team. The Nats could be great! I don't know. No one does. We really only know what's infront of us now.
Anon @ 11:21 - Huh... Hmmm I'll look
Ole PBN - Injuries to young pitchers isn't on the team imo. It's something that happens. Nats got lucky enough to time the Strasburg ones for maximum help. You can blame them for the lack of depth but not the elbow issue.
Don't forget Alex Meyer became Denard Span
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