Can we please at least broach the subject?
Davey Martinez has been the manager for the Nats for 6 years. In his second year the Nats, who had knocked on the door of playoff success but never entered, won the World Series. In years 1, 3, 4, and 5 they arguably well underperformed. Last year was a mixed bag. The team was thought to be mid 60s ish talent wise and performed as such talent wise, which they hadn't managed to do in those noted off-years. With some luck they won a few more games than they should*. I'd call it an even year.
But with this even year and that World Series year, looking at Davey's work from a mile-high perspective it's simply bad. He's one of the lowest ranked managers by winning percentage, winning seasons, and I'd guess player development, and while that is obviously not all on him, usually managers are the first place people look to make changes. He passed Riggleman for a while to be the 2nd worst manager in Nats history by winning percentage, though the dog days push brought him back up above him. Still barring an above .500 season he'll again drop below him. Catching Manny Acta - once considered a crazy impossibility for someone who won 93 games in his second year - is at least now technically possible in the "worst season in baseball history" sort of way.**
In short, I'm not sure why he continues to get a pass outside of "WS winners get to stay forever". So I really do think - with young players coming up and the team needing to turn a corner - that bringing in a fresh face might make a difference.
Look - I know the stats say managers don't matter. Or really what they say is "there's too much noise to really understand what managers do so we just won't really consider it" And I agree. But that means going on feelings for a manager is just as viable as any other method of evaluation. My FEELING is Davey is bad but various circumstances (2020s COVID year, 2022/23 being "we don't care" years from management) allowed for the World Series win to give him a cushion. I think that cushion is gone. The Nats are going to have to try to win next year and if Davey can't get this team to perform at least at expectations - something he's done for two out of six seasons - it's really time to let him go.
What are the expectations? Not good! But we'll talk about that tomorrow in our season preview.
oh yeah - Lipscomb did get sent down like I guessed. Made the most sense based on what they had done up to this point.
*It happens! In 2021 they LOST a few more than they should. Of course the difference there - is that was a "hope we get into the playoffs" team that ended up playing to a 70+ win level. Big disappointment, compounded by the bad luck.
** whereas previously it would have been like finish 15-147
Baby shark gets credit for WS.
ReplyDeleteIf you fire Davey, who doesn't charge much in salary and does what the GM says, I do think you need to be very confident that the replacement is "better." since the new manager will probably be just average, Davey needs to be what, ~20% worse than replacement to fire him. Is he that bad? Or is he merely below average? It's not like we have the replacement waiting on the bench.
What is it exactly that managers do? They don't decide who is on the 26-man, although they have input. With advanced stats, more and more game tactics are, uh, algorithmic. What's left is working with people--including the GM. That's mighty hard to measure.
ReplyDeleteYeah I mean I don't love Davey, but also it doesn't seem like managers are THAT important to results so long as they keep the clubhouse together and listen to what their analysts are telling them. From what I can gather, Davey does that. Players seem to like playing for him, and he doesn't seem to get into too many tiffs with players (though Garcia may be brewing and that's all on Garcia)
ReplyDeleteThat said, if he's fired then whatever, just make sure you bring in a guy that meshes with the clubhouse. Sean Doolittle perhaps down the road...?
Given that you yourself neutralize all the other reasons for firing him, it sounds like your biggest case for firing Davey is that you just don't like him.
ReplyDeleteI think BillyHacker has a point - are you certain that whomever you get can be at least 20% better? What truly are you looking for in the job? When to pull pitchers? Given that we're all in the AL now, there's pretty much nothing else to do. Maybe deciding who needs a day off, but otherwise it's managing the people skills of enduring the grind and coaxing performance out of guys.
Can you point to any managers who've consistently done a good job, and who you think would be, if not good replacements because they dead and/or 90, at least have the attributes you're looking for?
Eh, I think Harper's point is that the job isn't just taking out pitchers. It's a whole bunch of things that we, as fans, don't have great direct visibility into.
ReplyDeleteAnd Harper is, I think correctly, inferring from several years of results that Davey is probably not very good at the job overall. Even in 2019, that terrible start to the season is as much on him as the long road clawing our way to the wild card. I'd say, regular season wise, 2019 and 2023 are basically "at expectations" or slightly above. Relative to expectations, 2018, 2020 and 2022 were disasters (though 2020 was obvs a very weird year, so you can give him a pass if you want) and 2021 was bad.
Maybe he's improving. And he can certainly check one very important box - he didn't get in the way of the team performing well under the extreme conditions of a world series run.
But if I were Rizzo, I'd move on from Davey after this year unless:
1. We get 72+ wins (or we get close and have very bad pythag luck) or
2. We see clear developmental steps forward from at least two, and preferably three, of Gray, Gore, Ruiz and Abrams.
Don't forget that change can have its own positive intangibles, just like stability can.
I recollect reading that Martinez speaks Spanish and many managers do not. Even players who know English well, might still respond positively to a conversation in their native language. Knowing Spanish is a useful skill that wouldn't necessarily show up on anyone's list of "what makes a good manager."
ReplyDeleteIt made me think, I bet David Roberts would like to speak Japanese now that he has Ohtani and Yamamoto. He sort of does: this is a great article on the topic: https://www.sportskeeda.com/baseball/news-he-s-going-challenge-japanese-dodgers-manager-dave-roberts-tackling-language-barrier-yoshinobu-yamamoto
IIRC, the real reason the team started 19-31 in 2019 was because a bunch of guys were hurt. (I think it was Turner and someone else?) I doubt you can blame Davey for that, though Rizzo might deserve a few questions about depth and getting a decent bullpen.
ReplyDeleteOnce the band was back together, they went 86-43 over the next 129 games (including the playoffs), which is actually a better % than the 1928 Yankees. Can you blame that on Davey?
As for player development, I have no idea how that's supposed to work, and whose responsibility it is. Given the barren wasteland of farm yield since Rendon came up, you could also pin some of that on Dusty, Matt Williams, and Davey Johnson if you're going to pin it on Davey.
@pessimistic
ReplyDeleteWhat did Garcia do? I’ve heard a few people reference clubhouse problem, but I missed entirely what happened with him?