LET'S GOOOOOoooooooh oh no.
Like last year, first we will start with the adjusted standings The Nats here, trying to strip all sorts of luck and randomness out of their record, sat at about a 63 win team when 2023 ended.
Offensively they've switched on Dom Smith for Joey Gallo, Jeimer Candelario for Nick Senzel, and whoever in LF for Jesse Winker/Eddie Rosario. That's a slight upgrade, say 0.5 WAR, a big downgrade, maybe -3 WAR and a push. A push? Yeah Stone Garrett was good. Alex Call's defense was good. But ok, given there's a better chance in my mind for Rosario/Winker to land on something good than flitter around with a bunch of bad... I'll give you another 0.5 WAR. So that's a -2.0 WAR in changes.
What about returning players? Looking at them - Joey Meneses at DH, Keibert Ruiz at C, Luis Garcia Jr at 2B, CJ Abrams at SS, Lance Thomas in RF and Victor Robles in CF... well the good news is age wise and performance in 2023 wise there's not much chance for a big decrease. These are guys in there general "baseball prime" doing what they are expect them to. But there is also not much chance for a breakout either. That generally falls to CJ Abrams (young, talented and showed a couple flashes last year) and Victor Robles (injured). I could see something working here so I'll give a 1.0 WAR here as well.
That's an offense that remains a bad offense, but not an "avert your eyes" one. A -1.0 WAR overall change
The starting pitching has not changed outside of an extra half-season (maybe) for Jake Irvin. This is hard to call. Gray and Gore still maintain an age and talent level that improvement could happen but they are slipping out of the age frame that it normally would. Corbin and Williams should get worse with age but can they? I am going to be conservative and drop the output here by 0.5 WAR, but the variance is high. They could end up by far the worst in baseball or merely bad.
The relievers we discussed the other day - a bunch of guys who are ok doing what they do - with a decent chance of a good finish. Given that I like the chances on Barnes and Floro and think Harvey could be special... I just think there is more upside than downside here. Finnegan or Rainey are good and one of those chances hit... I'll give it a 0.5 WAR to balance out the SP.
So same team? 62ish win? I'm not so sure. In terms of defense, which was factored in, the Nats should be much worse and they weren't all that good last year. They were carried by Jeimer and their odd commitment to Alex Call and both those guys are effectively gone. Defense stacks in that if you replace a good SS with a bad SS well maybe 3B and 2B can compensate some, but if you replace a good SS with a bad SS and a good 1B with a bad 1B well now 2B is over covering that guy and 3B can't completely cover for the SS. You get the point. The sum is greater than it's parts. So I am selling the Nats a bit on the effect of this bad defense and cutting them another 2 WAR/wins.
Baserunning? Probably same.
The big question then is what about the kids? And to that I say... we can't do anything here about that. It's very likely that Wood, Lipscomb, Cavalli, Henry, and Hassel see time this year. It's probable that Crews, House, Herz, Rutledge join them. But it's hard enough to figure if they are going to well or poorly in their first real trial, let alone figure if they are going to get 5 months of play or 5 weeks. Though they could make a big difference, we just can't factor them in just yet.
The schedule makes a slight difference but while the Phillies and Mets might improve are the Braves going to get to 104 wins again? Are the never try Marlins going to clear .500? I won't adjust for this.
That leaves the Nats at 60-102 for my projection. A fight to avoid the dread 5X win season which just looks and feels worse than 60 wins. I think if they just went with what they have on board they'd likely go under, with injuries and late season trades taking away some talent. But the kids man, the kids! Such a wild card. And that keeps me from fully going into that. I believe in James Wood. I believe Lipscomb/House can't be worse than Senzel. I believe Cavalli/Henry can't be worse than Williams. The kids cannot make this team a winner, but they can make the season one. Just, can you keep interest until they get here?
DOOOOOOM!
ReplyDeleteGiven the overall take, I'm not sure whether it's good or bad that you didn't even mention Jake Irvin in the starting rotation. I view him as a solid #4-5 guy, kind of a right handed John Lannan, and a player who has already provided decent value for a guy taken at the back end (#131 overall) of the 4th round in 2018. I also was mildly surprised that your first pitcher past Cavalli for the rotation was Henry. Given that he's coming back from injury the guys in the AAA rotation (Rutledge, Parker, and Herz (even I am discounting Adon at this point)) should be ahead of Henry.
To get into the 50s they would have to trade away any player doing well (looking at you bullpen). If they trade away that strength, and turn it into a weakness, a 5 handle seems possible.
ReplyDeleteIf they just roll with this team all year, and call up prospects for the last month, I think mid 60s is most likely.
Fangraphs projects Irvin at 1 win even
ReplyDeleteWell, that went about as well as expected.
ReplyDeleteOn the brightside, Senzel quickly removed himself from the equation. I'm really hoping the Nats can string together some first half luck and then have the young guys take off in the minors and force a callup a la Soto, and the Nats are looking at being buyers for a SP at the deadline to sneak into WC3...pipe dream, but crazier things have happened, that's why we all love this sport
ReplyDeleteI'll take the over on 60 wins. You heard it here! :) (Well, I guess billyhacker called it first...)
ReplyDeleteAnd lest you dismiss this "enthusiasm" (if you can be enthused about exceeding 60 wins....) as mere homerism, FG has them projected for 66 wins FWIW:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings
Just checked up on how Juan Soto is doing (sigh)… here’s what troubles me: what do Bryce Harper and Juan Soto have in common?
ReplyDeleteBoth players wanted to put down roots for the long haul with one club. Both players had the details of their negotiations leaked to the press prior to them joining a new team. In hearing both players discuss the aftermath of leaving the Nats, it seems that both players “wanted to stay in DC longterm.” Whatever that is worth, likely some PR platitudes tbh. But both players also were “hurt/felt betrayed” when those negotiations were made public by the Nats front office. Lerner/Rizzo denies it… yeah right.
Point is this: why would a big name FA or one of the “kids” join the Nats long term when when this is how stars are treated? “If you refuse our offer, we’ll drag your name thru the mud” seems like a horrible tactic and reeks of bitterness and resentment. Seems both Soto and Harper feel the same.
From what Soto has said, I take his comments to mean that getting traded hurt emotionally but he understands baseball is a business (nothing personal). Leaking the details of him turning down the Nats offer? That’s personal and essentially takes us out of the running for his services in 2025 and beyond.
If players don’t want to come here because we’re in a rebuild, they don’t like DC, or the money isn’t right… that I can I live with. But when the FO handles contract talks in this fashion, it doesn’t sit right with me.
@PBN: odd use of quotes there. Are you sourcing something or is this just your projection of what they said? I know that Soto was unhappy that the Nats' contract offer became public, but since that time he's also spoken about how much he enjoyed his time in DC. I've never seen any indication that Harper's feelings were hurt by the Nats. I mean, maybe he expected the Nats to simply wait around until March for Harper to figure out that he wasn't going to get the offer that he wanted instead of figuring out their 2019 roster, but that really doesn't make sense. And I'm pretty glad that they didn't.
ReplyDeleteI think that it's unlikely that the Nats sign Soto when he becomes a free agent, but that's because it would involve stacking a lot of money on a player at a position where the Nats already have a lot of low cost high upside options. But I'm sure that, should Soto sign with another team this offseason, there will be Nats fans who will claim that it's because the Nats "done him wrong." Because that's the default setting.
@PBN. I side with John C. on this one. When you fail to achieve a goal, especially a very public one, the natural instinct is to lash out and blame the other party. No one admits they personally made a mistake or misjudged a situation.
ReplyDeleteBryce is not going to say: Scott and I got it wrong; we didn't believe the Lerner's when they said they would spend the money on someone else in December and not have record-setting money for me in March.
Juan is not going to say: it was record-setting money but I felt I was worth more than they were prepared to offer and i figured they would bid more when I became a free agent. I never thought they would end negotiations and trade me.
In both cases, the Nats made record-setting offers to very popular players and failed to reach an agreement. I would expect fans to demand and the team to respond to the question: how far were you willing to go?
I hate having to defend the Lerners here, but I just don't get it. I mean, sure you could just be the Dodgers and pay $70M/yr to everyone you want. It's not my money.
ReplyDeleteBut the offers to Harper and Soto were really good, and would make pretty good starting points for negotiations. If either guy wanted to stick around, they could have countered. Instead they said "ok, well thanks for setting the market, but my boss... uh, agent... says I'm going to free agency."
Then Harper settles for pretty much what the Nats were offering and says free agency was a nightmare. Well, I mean, all you had to do was make a counter-offer. Soto says he wanted to stay, but his actions said "I'm going wherever I can maximize my income." Which, you're totally allowed to maximize your income, but part of that may involve getting traded.
@John C.: hope this source and quote isn’t odd:
ReplyDelete"I was a guy who was loyal to the team," Soto said. "I always tried to say, 'Anything we do business-wise, it was just between the team and myself.' And it was really shocking for me, it was really tough for me. It was really frustrating at the same time, because I really trusted that team. I gave all my trust to be able to negotiate and do things like that, and when you see stuff like that, you just feel so bad. It was really uncomfortable."
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39813808/mlb-opening-day-2024-juan-soto-new-york-yankees
I mean I thought I was pessimistic predicting 71 wins but sheesh
ReplyDelete