The Nats OF was not an issue last year. It wasn't necessarily "good" but it was a relative strength while being the centerpiece for the plans for the future. It featured a mix of players outside of Wood and later Crews who we talked about last time. Winker (good!), Eddie Rosario (very bad!), and Alex Call (very good but much fewer PA) all started a decent number of games in the OF but the guys with the most time were Lane Thomas and Jacob Young. Thomas hit well enough to keep himself a trade target and got sent away at the trade deadline. Young fielded like a beast and hit well enough to keep the job.
The question for 2025 is who joins Crews and Wood in the Nats OF of the future... of today
Presumed Plan :
Jacob Young will start in CF
Reasoning behind Presumed Plan :
We talked about it in the comments a while back but Jacob Young played like possibly the best CF in baseball last year. Wood needs defensive help and you don't want to rely on Crews, still learning the position at the major league level, to have to give it to him.
While Alex Call has some history at being a very good fielder and shone with the bat for a month last year, he also has a unreliable history at the plate and more importantly is five years older than Jacob Young. If you are going to bet on someone for the future, which it seems like the Nats would do, it would be Young.
They could also bring in a bat here but given the needs at 1B/DH and maybe 3B if they want to slow walk House or shake up the IF, letting the OF play out like this makes sense for a year. If Young doesn't come through then there's a target for improvement before 2026 which presumably will be the year they really try to make a playoff push.
My Take :
This seems simple. Young, at 25 next year, deserves a shot to see if he can hit around average. If he fields like he did last year, that basically sets the Nats OF for the next half-decade (unless they want to move Wood).
Also if Young doesn't hit he will at least give coverage to Wood, who has shown he may need it, while they find a solution in his place. Having your worst hitter be a slick fielding CF is not a bad thing.
As for the alternatives. Long time readers know I'm not a fan of Alex Call. While I can't deny he can field and was impressed with his stint last year, it just doesn't makesense to gamble on a guy who hit poorly when given a real chance in 2023 and is going to be an old 30 next season. Personally I'd try to use his 2024 push to get something back and wish him well elsewhere.
I'd use Stone Garrett who's been a fairly consistent solid OF in his limited chances, to be the 4th OF and possible replacement for Young if he struggles or Crews if he struggles hard.
The minors don't really have anyone else knocking at the door. Hassell is now in "trying to get back to form" mode having passed the "recovering from injury" time frame. Daylen Lile did fine in AA but nothing that suggests he'll be forcing anything in 2025. I guess since the rest of the media does it here is an obligatory Elijah Green reference bc he was drafted high and had that one good month.
It doesn't seem hard. Let it play out with the guys you ended the season with. Fix things elsewhere. Hope it works out.
All this makes sense, and I agree with you that Garrett's bat is likely better than Call's (though the projection systems don't agree and think Call is league average with Garrett clearly worse than that).
ReplyDeleteCall's defense makes him a solid OF4 in the typical mold, but given the Nats's specific roster, I could see the logic to Plan A being to shift Crews over if Young is hurt or resting or slumping badly, and not needing a CF-capable OF4. And if we can get value for trading Call, that's probably the best path forward. But I'd want a prospect who'd slot in around 15th in our system or a similar B+ bench piece. If offers are worse than that, I keep both Call and Garrett as bench bats or AAA depth.(2 options each).
One thing Call does give you is a late inning defensive replacement for Wood, though maybe you don't want to pull that move while you're still hoping that Wood's defense improves.
Also, I must have missed Green's hot month. Or rather, I'm pretty confident that he didn't have a hot month in terms of the only stats that matter for him - k%, in-zone contact rate, chase rate, etc. It's nice that a bit of his power showed up and his overall production improved, but he's shown no progress on making contact. Until he does, I don't really care if his wRC+ against A-ball pitching is 60 or 160.
I loved Call's production last year, but he isn't going to sustain a .403 BABIP. His batted ball profile certainly doesn't support it. His xBA was .250 (.350 AVG) and his xSLG was .375 (.525 SLG). He's been barely above a league average batter in AAA the past two seasons. His real advantage is that he can play CF if needed. Garrett's bat may have a higher ceiling but also has a lower floor. Let them fight it out in ST for the 4th OF role. As SMS noted, they have two minor league options remaining, so there's no "DC or bust" problem. Either would be a stopgap anyway. Call is 30 and Garrett is 29.
ReplyDeleteOf course, Garrett also isn't going to sustain his wRC+ from last year, even if his xwOBA pretty much supports it.
DeleteI think the bullish, but plausible, take on Call actually having figured out some improvements since 2023 would put his true talent wRC+ at around 110. Which is definitely lower than Garrett's plausible upside scenario, and possibly even his median outcome. But with Call's defense that's a pretty useful player. One of the best OF4s in the league and even an acceptable starter on some teams.
Failing strong trade interest, I'm happy to stash him on the bench or in AAA.
Call as a 5th OF isn't a terrible idea. I've never been against that. Just not sure they are going to carry one.
ReplyDeleteGreen's month was mid year so it didn't register bc of the bad early stats and he finished weak so there was no narrative there.
I stand corrected.
DeleteIf you start the month in the second or third week of July, you can get his strikeout rate down to 35%. If he had been able to sustain that K% for the rest of the 2nd half, I'd have a very different take on him - even if his wRC+ fell back to just league average.
The only thing I'm interested in from a 3rd OF is not playing RF on August 23 to see if we can break the streak of "season-ending injuries to RF on August 23"
ReplyDeleteCall would be a plausible #4 outfielder on many teams. But no team needs three defensively-gifted CFs, unless #3 also has a good bat. If you think Young is a keeper as a starter, you might want trade Call, if anybody will offer some value for him. Garrett might wanna take some reps at 1B. Just in case.
ReplyDeleteGreen was a horrific pick, granted hindsight is 20/20. Sure I understand the incredibly high ceiling. But this isn’t football, you can’t athlete your way to being great if you cannot do the most important part of the sport… Hitting the ball. Sure take a risk on the guy like that maybe at the back end of the first round. But to waste a top five pic on a complete gamble project is just stupid with all the other options available that are significantly higher percentage chance to work out and still be great players.
ReplyDelete