The Nats don't look to be in on Soto.
That may disappoint but it shouldn't be a surprise given that he's going to push 700 million total and 60 per year. Soto is for teams that are fine being Top 3 payroll letting money cover up their mistakes. That's not the Nats and it never has been the Nats.
But that doesn't mean they won't spend.
Now could it inflate the salaries of everyone to the point where the Nats are too gun shy over any single one? I suppose but we're talking conjecture here. Right now what we know is this :
- The Nats have a fair amount of money to spend. Depending on what they want to do that could be 50 to 100+ million*. That's a lot!
- The Nats have shown in the past they will spend and be a Top 10-Top 5 ish payroll in the league if not out and out compete with the big boys.
- The Nats have made hints that they will be more aggressive in FA this off-season
- The Winter Meetings haven't taken place yet. We're still very early in the process.
I still have high-ish expectations, with the issues being more about the talent on the FA market than the Nats willingness. You can get worried in a normal FA period when we get later in January, but not early in December.
*ok if they want to do nothing it could be 0 million but no one thinks that's the case
But ... but ... we're counting on our anger and disappointment to keep us warm during the cold weather!
ReplyDeleteI will be very angry and disappointed if he signs with another team and the deal comes in at under a $50M AAV and a $600M total commitment (as computed for luxury tax purposes). I were the Nats GM or the owner, I'd be willing to breech at least one of those numbers in my best and final offers, but not by a whole lot. And at that point I can see both sides of it and I won't begrudge Rizzo and the Lerners bowing out of the auction.
ReplyDeleteHarper is right that there's no reason to be worried, yet, about the lack of signings. It's very early in the offseason, and Rizzo is always quiet until the deal is done. The absence of evidence and all that. At a minimum, fans should remain calm until more of the field has been cleared off the board. There's been like 3 significant signings so far, and they're all pitchers. No reason to panic yet.
And I certainly agree that the Nats aren't going to run a top 3 payroll, and I"m not asking them to do so. But the 8th or 10th largest payroll in the league, comfortably under the cap, would still give them like $120M of room or something for next year. And with Stras coming off the books as our players hit arbitration, we can pay Soto $50M a year without limiting our plans one iota until 2030 at the earliest. I guess that, if the internal pipeline runs dry, we could be in trouble at that point, but that's not something I'm willing to worry about until, say, 2028.
Yeah my big worry is this crop of FA. I just don't really like any of them.
ReplyDeleteNats have been most closely linked to Bregman...and I really don't want that. An old 30 looking for a long contract when we have House knocking on the door? No thanks.
Alonso could be a decent fit, but I'd be surprised if he lands with the Nats
Realistically, I see some wheeling and dealing. Maybe the Nats trade for someone like Cronenworth or Arenado plus someone like Luis Castillo. I dunno, but In Rizzo We Trust
Agree that this feels like a patented Rizzo Surprise Trade winter like the Winter of Gio Gonzalez although please sign Max Fried before sending Christhian Vaquero et al to the Reds for Spencer Steer or whatever
DeleteI agree that trades may be a better route to building the team than FA. Nobody on the market besides Soto seems like he could account for a big enough chunk of the 15-20 win improvement the Nats need to be competitive.
DeleteOn the other hand, if the other GMs are seeing what we're seeing with the prospects, then Rizzo may not have too much to offer. Is there a chance Harper and fellow citizens of this comments section are too down on the Nats' farm? Do they move one or more of the young guys on the MLB roster? What team will implode and have a fire sale mid-season, and why will it be the Padres?
Just using Fangraphs crowdsourced AAV estimates, there are 5 remaining hitters projected at over $20 million - Soto, Bregman (6 years, $27 million AAV) Alonso (5/ $25), Hernandez (3/$23), and Santander (4/ $20). I suspect Teoscar and Santander will beat that given there's 5 teams in on Soto. I think the sweet spot on the FA market would be Christian Walker at 3/$18 and either Joc at 2/$14 or even our old friend Jesse Winker at 2/$7. Leaves plenty for a closer and a mid-range starter.
DeleteI am worried about how badly the Lerner investments in commercial real estate are doing. (When's the last time you or anyone you know went to Tyson's Corner?). Who knows how things are for them but I think there were murmurs during their failed attempt to sell the team.
ReplyDeleteI think the Lerners are cheap stuff is/was stupid, but even reasonable people have budget constraints, and theirs might have gotten a lot tighter over the last 5 years. Hopefully it's not as bad as the old McCourt situation in LA, but I think there's no way to know. We'll find out what happens I guess.
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ReplyDeleteI don’t like or understand not being in on Soto at least at this point.. It’ll come down to where the market eventually lands him at, but if he goes for ~45-50M AAV or under the nats would be foolish not to get involved. That’s essentially the price of a Bergman or Alonso and Manea/Flahretty (on an annual basis). Or like a Burnes and Goldschmidt.. I would take Soto all day and be creative with filling the other spot.
ReplyDeleteSheriff.....Rizzo and the Lerner's know Boras as well or better than anyone in baseball. You can be sure they are talking to him about other of his clients who are available in FA.
ReplyDeleteIn that context, it's hard to imagine that Soto hasn't come up. And any number of things said. Maybe Rizzo was told "don't bother" or told it will take $700m with opt-outs or told Cohen will outbid everyone regardless. There is even a script where a surprise bidder near the end helps Boras and he has the Lerner's groomed for that role.
Wins, not fan approval, are Rizzo's goal. As a result he says little (that's meaningful) in public about his targets and negotiating positions. In contrast, Boston and SF, among others, are taking the opposite tack this year to appease fans. Personally, I would rather win than be appeased...but to each their own.
Bummed that Bieber is off the market, but he went with a deal structured to maximize his flexibility and that wouldn't have been a good fit for the Nats.
ReplyDeleteI do wonder if he affirmatively wanted to bet on himself, or if he didn't get offers like I was suggesting (eg 70/2, with a 100/5 team option or something) or even 65/3 without the option, either of which I think could have worked really well for us.
Oh well.
Yes I’m bummed as well about Bieber. I do feel like we’re in a pre-Werth situation where we need a star to sign here to entice others. Someone who buys into the promise that the young core should bring. Once that guy sings (Soto, Alonso, Bregman, Walker, etc.) then others will follow—I hope.
ReplyDeleteSide note… anyone else tired of hearing about how much money Steve Cohen has? Every story just seems to reek of “he will buy everyone” and so far, the recent signings by the Mets are gross overpays from Montas and Holmes. Is the entire baseball world glossing over the fact that these are still the LOLMets, regardless of how much Alonso and Vientos carried them thru that postseason? Remember when they went “all in” for Verlander and Scherzer? How’d that work out? All their hype reminds me of Aaron Rodgers with the Jets—another flop in New York.
He can spend his money however he wants; the more he whiffs the better. I’m just sick of hearing/reading that it’s a core one conclusion that they’ll get Soto. Hopefully the kid, for his sake, has some sense and stays with the less dysfunctional franchise in NY, if he doesn’t come home to DC.
Between all this nauseating Mets hype and the continued Nats alumni party in Philly, it’s a pretty sad time to be a Nats fan.
Story tonight is that the Soto bidding is above $700 million. Per my comments above, the Nats didn't appear in any stories because they knew from the beginning that it was a negotiation they could not win at prices that could not afford.
ReplyDelete@Steven Grossman: even if the Nats had been in on Soto they likely wouldn't have appeared in the stories. That's not Rizzo's M.O. (for example, the Nats weren't known to be in on Corbin until the very end; everyone assumed that he was going to the Yankees). The most involvement by the Nats in the Soto sweepstakes reported was that Rizzo had let Boras know to keep the Nats in the loop. That makes sense to me. To the extent that they were involved, chances are that they would have been one of the teams eliminated/dropped out when the bidding approached/exceeded $700M.
ReplyDeleteIts official: 15/765... wild.
ReplyDeleteRumors indicate that 29 MLB teams were interested, including the Seibu Lions and even LSU offered Soto a full ride with some high profile NIL opportunities.
The Nats were to obsessed with their prospects to even pick up the phone. Cheers to the best AAAA team in baseball!
@anonymous. I am going to assume that you are being sarcastic. I prefer to believe the Lerners knew the Soto bidding was going stratospheric (they talk to Boras) and it was more important to focus on other free agents.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the price for Soto---and other deals that were announced over the weekend--are very much a cause for concern. There are a lot of teams and a lot of money chasing a relatively thin FA class.
On a per dollar basis, the Nats budget is going to buy less talent at a higher level of risk. I am hoping for Christian Walker, but he is going to have 6-8 very serious bidders who are prepared to overpay (or reset the market if you prefer). Some of those teams are going to have to settle for a Josh Bell-type and hope to get his best and not his worst. Presumably, the talent cost of a Yander Diaz trade will also skyrocket.
Presumably, we are budgeted for two premium or near-premium FA. Not sure we will succeed in getting two.
@Steven: Agreed, as the costs are high, and moreover the Nats are in a lot of ways much like the Cubs, where adding merely average players doesn't actually improve them in a lot of places. Wood/Young/Crews in the OF, Garcia at 2B, Abrams at SS, and even Ruiz/Milias at C (mostly because the C market this year wouldn't excite anyone) could only be displaced by star-tier players. Similarly, a rotation of Gore-Herz-Parker-Irvin has an open spot to add a player, but adding, say, two Kyle Gibsons wouldn't actually improve it. There's no point in adding two SP unless they're somehow *both* solidly above-average (eg. sign Fried and trade for Crochet). That leaves 1B, DH, a single SP slot, and the bullpen (which Rizzo basically never bothers with beyond "acquire random bodies" until the deadline), with 3B to a lesser extent (Tena and the promise of House is probably just enough to keep the Nats from bothering with a Candelario or Senzel).
ReplyDeleteWalker would be perfect, but as you say, there's enough other teams in need of 1B help, including both of the Yankees and Mets, that someone's likely to push the price way too high and/or give him a fourth year. Alonso is honestly a pretty weak consolation prize (interestingly, Walker has surpassed him by fWAR in all three of the last three seasons), as he'll very likely demand more years and more AAV for less production. A one-year deal to someone like Santana or Goldschmidt might be an option (good defense to help the rest of the infield. Otherwise, it looks like the trade market might be the only way to go to make meaningful positive steps.
I'm not so sure about Alonso. Everyone seems to agree that Walker is more desirable. I think those two contracts are going to be closer than expected. Alonso is younger, so he'll get more years. Let's say Walker get 4/75. Alonso gets 6/110. I wouldn't mind Alonso at those prices, but I think I like Alonso more than others
ReplyDelete@anonymous. For a young infield, Walker is probably a better (defensive) choice than Alonso. No matter, I can't see either player being available for less than $25 million AAV. And based on the weekend signings, I would think that Walker is probably more like 3/90 or 4/110....and Alonzo is probably 6/180. I recollect hearing that Alonzo already turned down a Mets offer of about $150+ million and was looking to top $200 million.
ReplyDeleteAlonso may have made a mistake? It's happened before. Mostly, what I am commenting on is that the internet seems unanimous that Alonso will be over priced, and Walker will be a better deal. When I see stuff like that I wonder who is going to overpay for Alonso, if it is so obvious that he will be over priced? We saw this with the "Boras four" last year. Everyone saw the same weaknesses in those players, so they simply weren't worth as much as was predicted. I think something similar may happen with Alonso. Whatever the numbers are, I think Alonso's contract will be closer to Walker's than we expected a month ago
ReplyDelete@smallest. Was just over at MLBTR site in the front office chat....and they mostly agree with you about the price, but are split on whether he will still be available at below market rates in March. Here is the relevant snippet:
ReplyDelete-----------------------------------
Alonso has to be the major free agent with the biggest gap between what his agent feels he should get, and how MLB teams perceive him. But it only takes one. I have said that Boras is not stupid, and not eager to repeat what happened last winter. So it's not necessarily true that Alonso will sit there until March.
Steve Adams
5:04 Alonso feels likeliest [to be available in March] just because I think they're going to want $200MM+ and teams are going to say "Hard no on that, but thanks."
We almost predicted 3/80 him in our top 50, basically predicting he gets Bellinger'ed, but we couldn't bring ourselves to make a pick so contingent on a very specific set of circumstances
At anything close to 3/80 Alonso sounds like a great deal to me. I recognize that I like him more than most, though
ReplyDelete