What they needed

They needed a win. Obviously so, as I noted yesterday they were quickly sliding into "uh... what are we doing here guys" territory against some bad competition and if they don't want to BE the bad competition they needed to show something. 

They needed a good Jake Irvin performance. It has been a middling start to 2025 for Jake, who's main role is probably "be good enough to go 6+ innings so the bullpen can get some rest".  He hasn't been and it's mattered especially lacking a 5th starter (Brad Lord ain't it) and Trevor Williams scuffling a bit. The Nats rotation wasn't deep to start the year, now it needs everyone to do what they can do. Yesterday Irvin did just that. In control, lots of ground balls, some swing and miss stuff. Yeah the Pirates stink but as we've said many times - you gotta do it against the bad teams. 

They needed the bullpen not to blow it. They didn't. Jose Ferrer, probably the most "we're going to use this guy in the future" arm and Kyle Finnegan held down the 8th and 9th with one extra base-runner.  Exactly the break and performance the pen needed. 

So the Nats are now reset.  They are rolling out their best results pitcher so far in Mitchell Parker (though really that's more sequencing luck.  Still he has been good, just not under 2.00 ERA good) against Bailey Falter who is just a guy and a guy in 2025 off to a bad start. Win again, get a streak going and momentum to roll the next bad team. 

 

Speaking of no 5th starter - how's it looking in the high minors early on that front?  In AAA Shinnosuke has had a couple of good starts sandwiched around a terrible one.  It was the same team looking at him from 5 days earlier, for whatever you want to make of that. Andry Lara, an actual prospect (22+), has a similar early profile without the "re-seen" and with much fewer innings pitched. Given his tight leash I don't expect him up in 2025 and possibly could end up back in AA a league he handled but didn't dominate last year. That wouldn't be a knock against him though, just a statement of where he is in his development. He's good enough to want to take care of. Minor League Rule V pick-up Hyun-il Choi has been mediocre and oddly pitched just 2 innings last game, but I don't see any injury notes. Chase Solesky, a guy grabbed for org depth, seems to have a AA limit and is not doing well.  That leaves Andrew Alvarez, a 2021 Nats draftee and running a similar skillset as recent Nats call-ups. Re: Can't strike anyone out but doesn't get hit or give up homers.  A bit more wild than others but he might be first up.   The short of it though is - nothing really here. 

How about AA? Any older guys and/or guys doing real well? Jarlin Susana is the guy here with a couple of impressive starts.  He wasn't in AA last year though so the idea of jumping straight to the majors is a stretch given he threw 100 IP last year and that's his most ever. Maybe if he was dominating but he's a step or two from that. Really good, what you want to see as a prospect, but if you were hoping for help tomorrow, not there. 

I'd expect Lord to get another couple shots as they let the AAA guys get a couple more starts in themselves to really get a feel for how these guys are doing.  If it were today Alvarez would get the call but you have to believe they want to call Shinnosuke up and with only one bad start out of three, a couple more ok ones is probably all it takes to get him back in the show. 

Ok well you can lose to Skenes

This game isn't "have to have". Nothing in April will ever be that. But if the Nats want to come out of this road trip feeling good it's hard to imagine it without this win. Losing that they have to go 4-1 in the last five to salvage it. Certainly possible but when you start a road trip 1-4 and sit at 6-11 overall, 4-1 looks a little unlikely in general.

 Worse is just how bad the bullpen looks top to bottom. I understand the variability issue - you can make a good faith effort to build a pen and fail but this didn't feel like a good faith effort.  Especially when you are like "this guy isn't good. We aren't going to spend money on him... oh he's much cheaper. Well then it's ok he's not good" seemed like the way the Finnegan return went. It also doesn't bode well that Finnegan the only guy they were like "no we really are ok without you" is the current best arm (only good arm?) in the pen.  And we've talked about how Poche and Sims were kind of bad bets that showed poorly and yet here they are doing bad... 

sigh. 

Ok. Everyday in baseball is a new day. Get the win.

Monday Quickie - On boring target

Yeah to go 5-5 and tell us nothing they probably had to go 1-2 versus the best team in the bunch and it looks like that might be the Marlins. 

Friday looked to be a mirror-image of what we've seen. The Nats were held down for the start of the game before exploding late on the Marlins bullpen, while the Nats pen held it's own.  Hell, Lucas Sims got the win (maybe his last in the majors!). Saturday the Nats worked a lead off of the still returning to form Sandy Alcantara but in a disturbing development Trevor Williams couldn't hold on to it. While the Nats don't need Williams to be an ace, they do need Williams him to not be bad and he was bad. Given he started blah this isn't a particularly good sign.  But we'll worry about that in four days. Sunday was the more typical game but also featured the starter disappointing. Gore looked more like his 2024 self than 2025, which is perfectly ok and certainly should beat the Marlins but Jorge Lopez and Lucas Sims put the game well out of reach.

Ruiz keeps hitting. and Wood looked good, even when he didn't get a hit like Sunday he still walked three times and stole a base. 

Abrams got hurt and is out.  That means Rosario and DeJong at the same time and many Amed Rosario keeps up his decent start and DeJong has a little power run but more likely they anchor the bottom of the lineup in the "drag to the bottom of the sea" way. 

Ok on to the Pirates and no worse than a 2-2 split. 

In other news

Let's get a lay of the land in the majors after 2 weeks

NL East  - No one has pulled away as both the Mets and Phillies have been carried a bit by their pitching. The Phillies adding a bit of luck. The Marlins are a minor surprise but don't look to be too different from the Nats overall. The Braves are the true surprise with a horrendous start but have been .500 after that and are better than their record. They should catch the Marlins and Nats in the Spring but what does that gap do for catching the good teams?

NL Central - The Cubs have been legit good and threaten to run away and hide with the division given the Brewers are banging the wall both at the plate and on the mound, the Reds are a .500 team at best (great pitching bad hitting) and the Cardinals... well you can squint and see that they could be good but they have to prove it. The Pirates sadly remain the Pirates with no ownership support

NL West -  A stacked division where the Dodgers injuries might finally catch up with them.  Giants and Padres look like they have great staffs. The Diamondbacks are raking.  None of the top four teams are bad at anything.  In contrast the Rockies might be the worst team in baseball this year and in this division than might mean 50 wins. 

AL East - The Yankees bashed their way to fast start but have come down to Earth and it looks like a division full of 85 win teams. The Rays pitching might be enough to surprise in this situation. 

AL Central - The Tigers also got off the a fast start and look allright and in this division of misfits that's probably good enough.  The Guardians should hang around but mainly beacuse the Twins and Royals aren't very good.  Why is the White Sox pitching decent? Should be some good RP trade targets later in the year! 

AL West - The A's are terrible. the rest of the division shakes out to be 75 win teams but someone's got to end up on top and once again the Astros look like the one most likely to do it, sorry. If you want to bet on someone else, bet on the Rangers.  They can't hit this bad forever and Langford looks like Wood looks like.

The dregs (not the Nats!… maybe)

 The nats are in a stretch against the traditionally worst teams in the NL. 10 games vs the Marlins, Pirates and Rockies.  This will really set the tone for the start of the season. 8-2? Let’s go team that’s clearly better than the worst!  2-8?  Big uh-ohs. 

Now of course they are away and will go 5-5 and we’ll learn nothing but I’m pretty interested any way.  Especially in the Marlins series. The Pirates and Rockies are legit bad. The Marlins are not, or still least haven’t started so.  This could determine what sort of fight these teams are in for in the NL East.  Third? Last?  

Bullpen still stinks

The Nats in the off-season didn't do what we wanted them to. Still, after realizing they weren't going to make that big move, we assumed they'd help out a bullpen that looked pretty thin. It was an easy move to secure some improvement (or at least assure as best you can no movement backwards) for a group that was passable last year.  They did not. 

In 2024 the brought in Derek Law who had an better than expected 2023 and looked usable based on the past few years. They brought in Dylan Floro who had a WORSE than expected 2023 but fancy stats were good and historically he had been very solid. This also sort of describes Matt Barnes. And they brought in Jacob Barnes, recent historically bad and not good in 2023 but with fancy stats that suggested maybe something was there. You aren't going to hit on all! (Or maybe just avoid Barneses)

This year Jorge Lopez is sort of a cross between the Barnes. History is pretty hard to read but there are good things and last year was good. Lucas Sims is historically usable but looked worse last year. Colin Poche had some good years but the fancy stats see him more of a last guy int he pen.  

So there isn't a guy with the history of Floro. Poche is a worse bet Law. Lopez is a basically the bet you made on your two other guys in one pitcher.  Fewer guys. Worse bets. The fact you are sitting with a worse outcome isn't a surprise

This all would be acceptable if there were a stud set of arms they wanted to lead the way. There isn't. Last year they hoped Finnegan, Rainey and Harvey would be that. They dropped the nothing special Kyle Finnegan only to pick him back up on the cheap when no one else wanted him. Rainey never became anything and he's gone. Harvey had promise so they traded him and he's had a fast start in KC.  Guys they kept mostly aren't anything. Eduardo Salazar is just an arm.  Jackson Rutledge is a complete unknown with a total of 6 games in relief to go on. Jose Ferrer is he's young and lefty but more likely to be more like Salazar. 

If it wasn't for the emergence of Brad Lord there would be no bright spots to one of the worst pens in baseball and with Davey the type to lean on what works you start to worry about that, if he's even going to stay in the pen as long relief and not be worked into the rotation with Soroka down. 

 It's a fun week after a not so fun one. Abrams and Wood have had fast starts. Keibert as well. Gore looks good and the fancy stats aren't worried about Williams or Parker.  There are things to be excited about if you believe the ownership will finally buy in next year. But the excitement that could be happening this year probably won't and the lack of pen help will likely be a big reason. 

MacKenzie Gore steps up?

 MacKenzie Gore was always supposed to be a star but pitching prospects are extremely fickle. Factor in injuries and his development hasn't gone exactly as planned. Not that he hasn't been useful but if you said before 2020 that going into 2025 Gore's career stats would read 21-26 with a 4.20 ERA, 4.14 FIP and 1.422 WHIP you'd be disappointed.  Those are the numbers of a #3 type starter, not an ace. 

 At the major league level, and really at all levels since 2020, his problem has been two-fold. Too hittable and too many walks.  So while his homer rate has generally been ok and his strikeout rate generally good, guys would get on and guys would get around. His innings would be long and he just couldn't last long into games. He was just another pitcher. 

This year so far we've seen a different Gore.  His control is much better. He's getting ahead of batters (first pitch strike percentage is way up, getting more called strikes, and throwing in the zone more. This is giving him control of the at bats and keeping his walks down but strikeouts high. He appears to be leaning more into his curve ball, arguably his best pitch taking a bit off his fastball and a lot off his slider to make it match his change up more in speed. This is something he did in 2023 but got away from in 2024.  The difference from 2023 though is he was a fastball pitcher who used a slider and curve to mix things up. Last year he really bumped up the change and now he's a four pitch pitcher, where the slider and change hit about the same speed keeping hitters more off-balance. 

Pitching can be about learning what works and doesn't. And what works in the minors isn't necessarily what works in the majors. He could throw that speedball by them and then use a hammer curve and later the solid slider to finish hitters off in high school and low minors. But major league hitters weren't as easily beat. His fastball doesn't quite pop enough to rely on it to beat a hitter (see Ohtani last night) and his slider could be flat at times (see Ohtani last night). Since the curve could be fairly easily identified hitters could lay off that and handle Gore even with in general pretty good stuff. Locate the fastball though, lean more into a hard to hit curveball, make the slider able to be confused with a tumbling change-up, well you start to see what happens. 

I'm not sure this is something that will last. It hasn't been perfect as his start in Toronto was full of hits. And we've seen pitchers run through a couple good starts.  Hell, we've seen them run through a couple good months. But if you could spell out what you wanted to see from Gore early this is it. Honestly looking forward now to his next start to see if we can get more confirmation that he'pitching different and that it makes a difference.