Friday Quickie : Before you get ahead of yourself

The Nats have been mediocre or worse since COVID (unrelated... OR IS IT) and this year feels different. The young bats are improving to the point you think the line-up can keep the Nats competitive for the season and with some pitching luck... Look we're not talking playoffs here but .500? Or at least best record since 2019? 

But before you take a close to .500 record as a sign of things being different let's remember

2025 :  June 6th the Nats were 30-33.

2024 : June 23rd the Nats were 38-39 

2021 : June 30th the Nats were 40-38 

Starting decently does not guarantee anything other than this team isn't going to be an under 60 win historic loser like the 2022 squad. 

We're edging closer and closer to real evaluation time in terms of stats, but as these season records show us things can go any which way for entire teams let alone players. Hell the very first Nats season - where they surprisingly had a huge NL East lead around July 4th only to finish .500 - should have told you that. Then again I guess you'd have to be at least in your late 20s to have learned that lesson.  

Even if the Nats are closing in on the All-Star Break around .500 there are no promises for a team that doesn't have a history of winning, that's dependent on kids with only a couple seasons of 150+ game rigors under their belt, and an organization with little depth to deal with injuries and a likelihood to want to make some late season trades with an eye to the future. 

Enjoy the .500 but don't expect the .500.  

Is the Nats lineup good?

The Nats have scored 5.4 runs per game in the first quarter of the season.  That just isn't good - it's second best in baseball good. But to Nats fans this feels very weird. Sure they could be better than average if the pieces came through but second best in baseball? If you told me that last year I would have had at least some Dylan Crews fighting for ROY expectations. 

What do the stats say?  

BASE

Average - .244  t10th

OBP - .325 t9th  

SLG -  .411 t6th

HR - 50 t9th

SB -  42 4th

BB - 155 14th  

OPS+ 111 - t5th

These all say the Nats are a little bit overperforming but nothing crazy because they don't really have any holes in their offensive game. Like maybe they shouldn't be 2nd best but Top 5 is reasonable.  

Except for SB this is a huge change from last season.  What happened?  Well - Luis Garcia is still Luis Garcia but he's putting up better numbers at 1B than baseball's least favorite canine Nathaniel Lowe. Brady House is rounding into at least an average bat after struggling mightily last year. Lyle is better than Dylan Crews. Jose Tena et all are at least matching Josh Bell. But mainly Wood and Abrams are hitting like MVP candidates when last year they were solid and above average respectively.  Outside of Nunez replacing Garcia at 2B everything is better. 

FANCY

 Their launch angle as a team is improved (it could hardly be worse) but other than that there isn't much outside of some minor improvements that would suggest getting to average.  

 Some of this is likely the Nats just getting better because they have young players and that's what young players do.  Hit it a little harder, a little better, swing at fewer bad pitchers. 

RELATIVENESS

But here's probably the kicker.  The usual way a baseball season works is April is the worst month for hitting then teams heat up until the end of the season when a combination of not trying, resting for playoffs, and kids brought up bring down the stats again. There are vagaries that can affect this but this is the general way of a season. 

In May 2026 the Nats have been hot in the first third of the season jumping up from .718 to .799 in OPS.  The league as a whole?  Down from .715 to .688. I can't say this is unprecedented but we haven't seen it in recent years. So while the Nats have gone on a hot streak baseball itself has gone dead cold and a team that was about average in April now finds itself in front with a good chunk of the reason being other teams flubbing their expectations. 

WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN

For the Nats and their offense - it's still early (remember our Memorial Day pledge for when stats count) but it looks like they are better and the terrible offense of 2025 is at least average thanks to some bounce backs and growth. Expect them to land where you'd expect an average offense to be over the past few seasons. 

For MLB I don't know. Like I said - we haven't seen this.  In April the average OPS was .715.  In May that would rank 9th.  That itself undersells what's going on as the gap between 9th and 10th is over 20 pts.  That's big. Teams are just not hitting.  If that's a real thing and there's a new normal, well then the Nats would seemingly benefit from just getting a better from awful.  It's not about being some universal best, it's all about relative best. 

My guess is though the season will find the Nats drifting down to around the 10th+ range, both as Abrams and Wood settle, as their runs scored match their stats, and as other teams shake off this weird early funk. But still Top 10 ish is better than expected and lends some hope to what 60 days ago looked pretty hopeless.  

 

How real are the starters?

The Nats have had a mixed bag from their starters in 2026 which honestly is a good thing considering "big bag of just crap" was a reasonably good expectation. Foster Griffin is pitching to much better results than anyone could have hoped for. Irvin and Cavalli are hitting about where you think they would. Mikolas and Littell are struggling even with PJ Poulin doing some "Relief starting" in their place. But it;s still early and a game or two in one direction or the other can really effect how things look for these guys.  Which of these results is "most real" and which ones are likely "fake"?

 

REAL 

Jake Irvin - mediocre back of the rotation innings eater. 

Last year Irvin struggled mightily but all his stats are back to 2024 levels. Which is to say not as bad as it looks but also not inspiring. His fancy stats do suggest something better than his ERA but I wouldn't try to read too much improvement into that. His xFIP is middle of the pack but his xERA being down a bit further. xFIP is "in a vacuum"  xERA is in part "with the team you got". He's good enough to put in a rotation but if you are hoping he'll be a Top 3 guy that's a stretch. The question set by the last two seasons - is he more a solid #4 or a hanging on #5? - seems to have the answer of "solid 5". His Ks and homers are probably going to get a little worse but some more outs with guys on base will offset some of that. 

Zack Litell - bound for somewhere other than the majors

Zack is a guy whose stuff has left him and has survived on guile and pinpoint accuracy over the past couple years. That accuracy is gone and the results of that is what you see.  A guy getting pounded. He's got one pitch working and it's a split finger so players can just sit on balls down and hope either the pitch or his wildness takes it out of the zone.  If you want to look on the bright side his last outing was by far his best but guys still hit him hard and got balls up in the air and he didn't throw strikes. 

 

NOT QUITE SURE 

Miles Mikolas - also out of baseball

Much like Zack Miles has been relying on a lack of walks to get him past his declining stuff. Unlike Zack, Miles is a wily multi-year veteran and has adjusted to his lack of accuracy by pitching down more and really upping his GB rate. That's generally good. The problem is when he misses he's getting creamed. If that doesn't stop neither does the trajectory out of baseball sooner than he probably wants. But if it does, if he can keep getting the GBs and cut the homers, well he should be perfectly serviceable. His ERA is already inflated by some crazy bad LOB% luck and should come down anyway.  But down to like 6 or like 4.5? That's what the homers will decide

 

FAKE

Foster Griffin - anywhere near ace

Since he's been overseas Griffin doesn't have a good expectation on normal so we're more reliant on fancy stats. His BABIP is too low to sustain and his LOB% is pretty high. This would be fine if he got a lot of soft contact but he doesn't.  He's hit pretty hard. He's going to give up more hits and give up more runs. The good news is that he should maintain his HR rate which is fairly decent.  He looks more like Irvin maybe slightly better. That's still a fine pick-up. 1 out of 3 ain't bad? 

 Cade Cavalli - middling middle 

Despite being 27 Cavalli's injuries means his experience is light, especially in the majors. His off speed stuff is near elite the problem has been the set up with a fastball and sinker that both have done nothing. That isn't new for the sinker but the fastball being off is what's causing the issue.  Maybe he's being too cautious with it? His HR rate has dropped like a rock despite in general getting hit comparable to last year. Given his experience and prospect status, I'll lean toward general improvement from what's been a fine but uninspiring early season and something more like 2 or happy to be your 3 type stats by year's end. 

 

Honestly - what to do about catcher?

 The Nats at catcher are currently the worst in baseball. In the previous two seasons they were 24th and 24th in wins above position, which tracks with what we all know. They are bad.  They haven't been the worst, thanks mainly to catcher being such a hard position that other teams were complete failures, but now they are the complete failure. Their issues at catcher might be the worst at any position in baseball*

Their main catcher Keibert Ruiz is hitting .182 / .203 / .303. Traditionally a minus behind the plate with the glove, he's managed to be actually decent this year but it's very iffy looking at defensive stats at such a small time frame. Still he'd have to have been turned into a defensive wizard to make up for his bat. Offensively Ruiz has never had power or patience and relied on putting the balls in play and getting hits to create value.  In the past few years though he can't get the ball up any more and he's lost his bats speed meaning he's become a very slow runner who hits weak ground balls.  That's a recipe for... well what you see in that batting line. 

Drew Millas is on the other hand a solid defender, or at least always has been, meaning there's a little less pressure put on his bat to perform.  Unfortunately he hasn't been able to get over even a lowered bar.  He's hitting .148 / .220 / .185.  Similar to Ruiz there's no power in the bat and this isn't something that will come around. He's 28 (over half a year OLDER than Ruiz) and he's historically never hit for power. There seemed to be some hope in 2023 & 2024 that he was a late bloomer and he'd be able to have some weak MLB power but those now appear to be flukes. He might do slightly better than this at the plate but he's also getting around an age you expect some drop off. 

 But the Nats brass anticipated such a problem and made a trade in the off-season for a "ready about now" catcher. Harry Ford has been a solid prospect in recent years and was blocked by the Cal Raleigh so was there for the taking and the Nats got him. The problem is currently he's putting up Ruiz/Millas numbers but in AAA .174 / .287 / .209.  It's the worst he's done in an extended time at the plate in his career and a far cry from his .283 / .408 / .460 in AAA last season. PCL or not that's a big drop. Worrisome his walk rate and k-rate both are going in the wrong direction.  He's not seen as good enough a defensive catcher to stick there for a career (there had been talk of trying him in the OF in Seattle) so there's no point in bringing him up with the hopes the bat catches up.  The good news is the guy just turned 23 at the start of the season so early season blip is completely likely. But that's only good news for the long run not for right now. 

At this point you look for anything and might that be Riley Adams?  Another questionable glove behind the plate his numbers at AAA are not inspiring, but at .216 / 326 / .378 they at least aren't incredibly depressing. He's has shown time and again he's not a major league hitter but at this point "decidedly below average at the plate" would be an improvement. AA offers a couple of interesting choices. Caleb Lomavita is one of those raw talents that you like but needs polishing in all phases of the game. He's not pushing anything in AA so a call-up would almost certainly be a negative. So we're left with Max Romero a 2022 draft pick of the Nats who has legit power, and a tendency to swing a miss way too much with no patience. Currently he's managing a touch more patience and a decent line in AA but history would expect him to get eaten alive in the majors with that whiff profile. 

That's the long of it. The short of it is they got nothing and honestly I got nothing. 

 Usually for a team in this position, you let this play out. But when you are absolutely the worst and you aren't trying to move forward with a true prospect then you gotta do something. You can't just be "we have no plan here other than to suck real bad". It's a terrible look that says not "we're making sacrifices for the future" but "we absolutely don't care".  The fans deserve at least a bit of effort from the front office here. Even if it's just a minor league contract stab at an old name or a trade for someone else's AAA no-name. Give us something that shows you know this is unacceptable. 

*Colorado's SS and the Angels' LF rank as the other possibilities.  

Monday Quickie - wait I thought the offense was good?

 Sorry it wasn't.  Moose outside shoulda told ya. 

This is what the offense looks like when Wood and Abrams aren't hot.  Pretty terrible, right?  Let's hope neither gets injured. 

The Nats have a record that looks pretty typical of a blah team. They get beat, but now blown away, by good teams and hold their own against everyone else. But it's still early enough I wouldn't read into that. I mean, they play the Cubs now instead of the first three games when things are really anyone's game and you don't expect them to take the series.  We'll see but the back half of May is shaping up to possibly be the important run.  Four more games versus the Mets - who if they are every going to get back in it will have had to go on a little run into those, three against Atlanta, three against a perfectly cromulent Cleveland team, and three against San Diego.  I feel like where they stand at the end of that will be a pretty good indicator of the season as a whole. 

But before that they got the Twins (bad but a little unlucky), Marlins (.500 ish), the Reds (maybe the luckiest team in baseball but the tides been turning recently), and the Orioles (stink!). This is the sort of run you want to end up better than you started if you aren't among the worst teams in the game. 

The Nats grabbed another arm - Zak Kent.  Just sort of a guy who can miss some bats.  

This is a real quickie this time. That's it. 

The James Wood timeline

 James Wood is 23 years old and after a disappointing finish to last season where he hit .223 with 7 homers after the break while striking out 105 times in 269 PAs, he's back to meeting high expectations. The early season is always full of wild variation (Currently a Nats team with Alex Call, Dom Smith, and Ildermo Vargas would be DESTROYING opposing pitching staffs) but Wood is the seventh best hitter in MLB by OPS+ and the 5th youngest in the Top 50*.  He's a guy you build an offense around and the assumption is the Nats will do that. They HAVE to or else what the hell are we doing here? 

If that's the case the Wood will start getting paid in 2028 and will probably need to be wrapped up no later than 2030 though the sooner the better. And if THAT'S the case then the Nats have no more four seasons to figure this out and anyone looking to get paid before the Nats decide to go in is likely going to be paid by someone else. 

I'm going to guess and say that won't be clear by the end of 2027 so anyone who's a FA after this or next year we should consider gone. This includes every FA pitcher (that's fine) and it includes Luis Garcia.  Luis is for the most part a perfectly acceptable part and he's actually still young (turns 26 in a couple weeks) but losing him probably won't be a big deal. 

The FA class of 2029 and 2030 are the issues. 2029 has CJ Abrams who is unarguably the Nats second best hitter and just an overall fun guy to watch. If he wasn't out of position at SS he's be an easy plus player and someone ELSE you build around. Even as is it's hard to see getting rid of him because the current third best hitter on the Nats is either likely flash in the pan Weimer or competent Daylen Lile.  There are other guys who might come up but there's no guarantees and CJ can hit in the majors. There's no doubts about that. The plan going into last year probably did have CJ traded away but it also had Wood getting a sidekick in Dylan Crews. If not him than Brady House or maybe a bounce back from Hassell. But Crews crashed, Hassell proved to be a AAAA type and House's development has been slow, if steady. Abrams be 28 in 2029 so he should have one solid contract in him.  Can the team afford to trade him? Wouldn't that just mean signing someone else anyway?  One good bat is clearly not enough. I think the situation dictates keeping Abrams as well with a long term deal soon. 

2030 is when Cade Cavalli hits FA. Now with a pitcher and this much time you can't really say much but right now he looks major league front of the rotation capable and he's the only non-temporary FA arm you have starting games .  Guys SHOULD develop. It'd almost be impossible for them not to. But who and when and how good? It's all up in the air. Still I'm not sure you sign Cavalli long term.  He's a pitcher. This is further off. And most importantly, the guy will be 31 in 2030.  A long term deal for a pitcher at that age is risky.  Not stupid like signing a guy at 35 for 3+ years but it's a gamble. This is one we're just going to have to watch and see if the situation forces the Nats to keep Cade as the guy bc either he develops into a top of the rotation arm or there just isn't anyone else.

 If you are like "this isn't a lot of building blocks, Harper" you're right. But the alternative to not signing Wood is a third rebuild in a row. The Nats punted on trying with this group as-is when they traded Gore (younger than Cavalli!) who if not better than Cade is easily more reliable.  That was an admission they weren't going to compete through 2027 and didn't want to pay Gore a big paycheck.  Ok but there has to be a timeline and a plan around that timeline.  Wood getting PAID feels like the timeline. You want to be competing when he's getting his money. How do we do that?  I think we start not by trading CJ but by signing him. After that though - it's a lot of prayers.

 

*Wood will be 24 on Sept 17th.  DET's McGonigle (13th) is 21 until August 18th, CIN's Stewart (16th) is 22 all season, KC's Jensen (37th) is 22 until July 3rd, OAK's Kurtz (49th) just turned 23 before the season started.  Wood beats out Cardinal rookie Wetherholt (41st) by a week. 

Monday Quickie - Foster-ing ideas of greatness

The Nats keep chugging along four steps forward, five steps back, and last game Foster Griffin shut down the White Sox. Ignore the White Sox for a moment, any chance the fancy stats say something is real here? 

No.

Griffin has pitched a lot like Jake Irvin but his BABIP sits at .233 (abnormally low) and his LOB% at 90.3% (abnormally high) and so they aren't scoring the runs off his that they "should". He's not getting a crazy amount of GBs (could be better) or avoiding hard contact (no one really hits him softly).  Poking around here and there I see barely anything. What I can say is his off-speed stuff is good, but his fastball is crap.  He's a junkballer. The ERA is an illusion and he's just fine.  But hey!  Just fine is... well fine!  

Two things to wonder about this week

Nasim Nunez is showing you why he was available in the Rule V draft and also why the Nats picked him up and kept him.  His defense is outstanding and I wouldn't be surprised if playing the whole season at 2B he ends up the 2nd best at the position (Nico Hoerner is truly something) but the guy can't hit. He is among the weakest swingers in the game and he also has an issue making good contact. This would be a bit more palatable at SS where his D would help more and CJ Abrams is a bad fielder. It makes too much sense. Why don't we move these guys around please? 

I don't know what is to be done about the catcher position.  Ruiz is still terrible. Millas hasn't done anything with his chances. Riley Adams, who they are only keeping around as org depth is doing nothing in AAA.  Harry Ford, who they hoped would hot start himself into a solution, is doing less.  Caleb Lomavita... well he's hanging in AA but he's clearly not ready for the majors.  Kevin Bazzell, the "hmmm maybe this is a savvy draft pick" from a couple years back is looking like a 2028 Car Dealer of the Year. As Olivia Rodrigo (new album drops in June) would sing - it's brutal out there.

 Oh since I'm in the minors anything of big interest early? 

• Gavin Fein - the "this is the good guy they got from Texas" hurt his wrist and hasn't played in almost three weeks. 
• Seaver King looks good early in AA - not shocking but exactly the improvement across the board you'd hope for after last years middling half-season. Similar take from the couple years younger Luke Dickerson a couple levels down. 
• Landon Harmon has started hot. Might need a bit more stretching out but seems too good for the Fred Nats already. 
• And what of Dylan Crews?  Still lost. In real danger of being a can't miss that missed.  

James Wood - Star, Superstar, or HOFer?

James Wood has 9 homers in his last 18 games. I don't do math real well* but I think that works out to 81 homers for a season. He's also walked 19 times which would be 171 walks for a season which would be fourth all time. Yes it would come with.... carry the two... 207 strikeouts (t16th all time) but if you are doing the first and the second, the third doesn't matters as much. 

Now James does seem to be an early season guy.  Could be the effort of running around for 150+ games in that huge body wears you down. In 2025 he was great in April, AWESOME in May, and great in June before having a very average back half of the year. I wouldn't be surprised if we see something like that again, but let's not make it a definite trait just yet.

James seems to be settling though into a "better Adam Dunn" path.  Before you poo-poo that understand that Adam Dunn was a two-time All-Star, three time MVP vote winner, who hit 462 homers and is Top 50 all-time in walks. (and left on his own terms when he possibly could have squeaked out a couple more years)  "Better Adam Dunn" is then a guy, if he can stay healthy, who's going to make several All-Star teams, be perennially in the MVP discussion (would probably be so already on a better team), easily clear 500 homers and be in the Top 200 offensive players of all-time. Do you take that or are you really going to angrily demand Top 100 offensive player / HoF potential, or bust? 

I'm not say he couldn't be that but then I think we've got to see something improve here. Either defense (a young Reggie Jackson, a fine HoF comp for Wood, was a decent defender up to coming to New York - so basically half his career) or average (though it may not look it because the late 60s early 70s were bad for hitting, Reggie was usually Top 25 in average until the last third of his career. For a more contemporary comparison, Bryce Harper's** low end overlaps James' high end). Which seems more likely? 

I don't know.  It's not that he can't play better defense. He's clearly athletic, hasn't looked bad at times, and the numbers for this year (which are admittedly practically meaningless when you best evalutate D over multiple years) look ok. He's got a good arm which fits better in RF. But he seems to lack the instincts for the game his speed not showing up in below average range. Defense usually doesn't age well and that's before you consider the body type of James Wood, more standard gangly tall guy then weird "15% scaled up big human" Aaron Judge. 

But the average doesn't hold much more promise. It is only going to get better if he cuts down on his Ks and frankly that's not his game and you shouldn't be sure if you want that to change. If gripping and ripping with a elite level of location identification is what gets him 40, 50 homers a year why would I try to mess with that? If that's even possible. 

Could he maybe be better at SB? He IS fast and still young enough to take advantage of it. While his instincts aren't great looking at his major league SB/CS numbers, I'd like to see him get some real schooling on this. He's on base so much it could be a real advantage. 

James doesn't quite line-up exactly with the HoF comparisons (which is why we started with Dunn). He likely has a patience advantage over Reggie, who didn't walk as much as you'd think.  He likely has a power advantage over Bryce who never became the league leader homer hitter type he projected as. Perhaps Best Adam Dunn IS a HoFer. 

Anyway, this is all a rumination on a guy who is again someone we are talking about as "He'll be great!" and trying to figure out how great that means. As the season racks up more losses than wins and more "prospects" than not flame out, enjoy this guy.  He's real. 

 

*Not true. I do math real well.  

**Yes, Bryce is a HoFer. Like not TODAY if he spends the next 3 years hitting .200 with no homers, but assuming a healthy season he'll go over 400 homers and Top 100 offensive players sometime next year at age 34. That's real close to a lock with whatever else he can do over the back end of his career after that.  

Tuesday Quickie - NL East works for the Nats

The Nats are fun team this year. 

 Well sort of. 

 If you like high-scoring baseball you are in luck because the Nats are scoring the 3rd most runs in the game, almost a run more than average. Also the Nats are allowing the MOST runs in the game, over 1 and a half runs more than average. That's a losing combination but it's an entertaining losing combination. 

 What adds to the fun is pound for pound the NL East is starting the season as the weakest division in baseball. Meaning the Nats issues aren't putting them in last place staring up as they would be in the NL Central, or in the middle but a good distance from third as they would be in the NL West. They are bad but other teams are worse and other teams that expected to be good are worse leaving the Nats relatively feeling pretty good about themselves. 

The Braves are running away with the division right now and the stats have a team that is the 2nd best hitting team in baseball with the best staff.  That'll do it. The Braves staff is getting real lucky. Their rotation is pitching to a 4.00 ERA but seeing a 2.50.  Their relief corps has four guys with ERAs under 1. But the key is more staying healthy than doing silly things as injuries derailed last year.  Offensively Dom Smith (yes Nats legend Dom Smith!) can't be this good nor Mauricio Dubon but they haven't gotten what than can from Acuna. C Drake Baldwin being a star makes a huge difference from a position you are usually hoping for mere non-embarrassment (Ruiz... failing at that)

The Marlins are an average squad in their results.  They've put together a nice reliable starting staff, but with the same soft underbelly issue in the pen as the Nats. The offense is literally full of guys you never heard of having wildly different years from Otto Lopez looking like an MVP at SS to Heriberto Hernandez and Graham Pauley doing whatever that is called with the bat. It's seemingly more smoke and mirrors than the Nats so maybe the Nats can be 2nd place for a while. 

The Phillies are struggling everywhere. Bryce and Schwarber are still stars but their homegrown "talent" continues to disappoint. Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott in particular. When the lineup is four batters deep pitchers can work around that. The starting pitching really isn't this bad though. Basically bad luck right when it can't be washed out in the full season sample.  They should be better but unless the offense clicks I'm not sure they will be playoff good. 

The Mets, in the midst of a 1000 game losing streak  are pitching perfectly well.  There are some ups and downs with the vagaries of the early season but it's a perfectly reasonable playoff staff that is middle of the pack now and should be better. The offense is a mess though. Lindor is in one of those extended slumps he can go through and Bichette looks lost.  Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, guys they were counting on to be average are just bad. This puts a lot on Soto's shoulders... and he's out with no good replacement. It shouldn't be this bad and it won't be, but I'm not sure it will be good. 

The Nats are in a nice spot then I guess. The Marlins have a slightly better record but should come down, possibly a lot.  The Phillies and Mets are worse and should come up, but maybe not as much as they need. It's a bunch of games against opponents that shouldn't knock the Nats around.  FWIW the Nats are probably not this good relying a lot on Abrams and Wood and luck to score runs to cover for a bad staff. But the record is fair. this is a team that if lucky gets to 70 wins. And maybe this year in the NL East that keeps them in spitting distance of 2nd place. 

Nats this year vs last - some early stats

It's still too early to look at individual stats but we can start to look at team trends and see what underlying things look good and what, if any, look scary. Last year the Nats issues can be broken down like this : 

Batting

2025 

Home Runs - 161  - 24th in majors

Launch Angle - 9.9% 

Walks - 443 - 28th   

At the plate the Nats could make contact with the ball - they were middling in both average and strikeouts. That should help on the path to a middling overall offense, but you need to occasionally walk to get guys on base and hit homers to drive everyone in. The Nats were terrible at both of those. 

 2026

Home Runs - 20 - t 6th.  

Launch Angle - 10.4 % 

Walks -59 - 19th  

Grain of salt on the counting stats since 1-2 games played difference can throw things out of whack but the Nats power and patience are both up.  The launch angle is improved but in a general sense you want to be in the 12.5 to 15.5 range (there is "too high") so room to grow. James Wood especially is held back a bit by this because when he doesn't square a ball (which he does often) he slams it into the ground - he never misses under the pall.  No pop-ups but no flares or with his power lazy fly balls that just keep carrying. 

 

Pitching 

2025 

Home Runs - 214  - 26th in majors

BA - .268 - 29th 

Hard Hit - 44.1 / Exit Velo - 90.1 - 30th  

Walks - 566 - 27th   

Last year it's easy to say the Nats pitching staff did nothing really right. The other team hit them and hit them hard and drove in all those guys the Nats put on base when they did it.  

 2026

Home Runs - 34  - 30th in majors

BA - .262 - 27th 

Hard Hit - 46.3 / Exit Velo - 90.3 - 30th  

Walks - 84 - 27th   

I'd like to tell you thing have gotten better but they haven't. When basically all your good pitchers walk this will happen.  Can the Nats improve? Yeah probably. Even just a minor improvement to "lower third" would keep them competitive if the offense finds it's way to average. 

What would be my biggest concern?  Well the Nats decent-ness so far is carried by their homers and there isn't a great stat telling me why they are doing ok hitting homers. They don't hit a lot of balls hard as a group or hit a lot of balls in the air. (in fact they hit a lot of balls on the ground) so you'd think they'd be much lower.  Also it might be because cold bats are exaggerated early on in a way hot bats aren't.  Teams can hit .200 as a team but they don't hit .300.  The Nats just might be the hot team at the moment who will get passed by everyone else as they normalize (and pound the Nats' pitching). 

 But worries are for tomorrow.  Today is for more .500ish baseball.   

 

Monday Quickie - Sweep

 Look you wear those terrible Milwaukee City Connects bad things are going to happen. 

 After a slow start James Wood is HOT batting .500 (Yes .500) with 4 homers and 3 doubles in the last 7 games. His complete turnaround along with streaky CJ staying on a hot streak and Curtis Mead being this weeks Joey Weimer has kept the offense moving despite everybody else being pretty mediocre.  Could this be real?  Kind of! Like James Wood IS really good. CJ Abrams has this in him. Curtis Mead... well every week will bring a new Curtis Mead! Someone else is bound to be hot at any one time. 

Pitching wise it's been not great but not as apocalyptically bad as before.  Foster Griffin and Zack Littell are taking advantage of the relatively cold early season bats and Cavalli is doing well too. Outside of Mikolas the only concern is some shaky outings by Cole Henry.  The Nats really see to nail down at least the back end of the bullpen. Beeter has been ok, Lord pretty good. Paxton Schultz is probably not the needed third arm. Could this be real?  Less likely!  But take it while you can get it while you can get it because the cavalry isn't close.  Travis Sykora is coming back from Tommy John. Jarlin Susana is recovering from lat surgery. And Luis Perales looks like you'd expect the 6th best prospect in a so-so organization would look meaning... maybe he's something but don't expect him to force anything right away. (your best bet there is probably Alex Clemmey - solid but also crazy wild (7 walks in 6 IP) in two short AA starts so far) 

The Nats have earned this start and now have some breathing room thanks to the sweep. They stay on the road to face the hot Pirates in a fun battle of "which of these is more real" before heading home to face the going nowhere Giants. 

If you aren't paying attention TONIGHT is the game to watch. Cavalli who we always want to take a look at, vs Skenes likely the best pitcher in baseball who has looked like himself after a disaster on Opening Day. The Pirates have top notch pitching up and down the rotation and the Nats catch their hottest 4. The bullpen goes 4 deep right now. So if the Nats are going to win they likely have to shut the Pirates down. The lineup is a very black and white one. The top 5 are as good as any lineup in baseball has been this year. The bottom 4 are incredibly bad with Ozuna looking like he'd rather be sipping Mai Tais and Konnor Griffin starting the conversation on whether he needs to go back to AAA (still will probably get a couple more weeks to figure it out)  

Let's keep this "Close enough to .500 to be fun" train moving! 

Is Mikolas done?

 Miles Mikolas' last start was his best start of the year.  He also threw only 3 innings and managed to give up 5 hits and 3 walks. While we don't like to jump on anything too early he is a guy who will be 38 in August and the idea that he's hit the final wall isn't crazy. 

The truth is Miles has been bad for a while, since 2023 really. Basically overnight his fastball went from great to trash and he went from All-Star to just a guy. Since then he gives up some homers, doesn't strike anyone out, and is EXTREMELY hittable.  But he was able to hang on thanks to some great control which limited the damage. But this year he's already walked 7 guys in 12 innings. 

Trying to parse out what's going on from fancy stats in three games is tough, ok it's a bit pointless, but we try anyway. What's glaring is his change-up just doesn't hold up anymore and it's plopping down low for an easy recognizable take. But that's a ball, what's being pounded is his curve and slider. Both are also missing the plate more too. He's actually throwing fewer meatballs but they are getting absolutely crushed. It might also factor in that everything is slower from him - that could be just early in the season. He did start slowly in 2023 and 2024 as well and it's been his wildest month in the "i'm not good now" part of his career. 

If you want to try to paint a picture there are two possibilities. 

One, is just as an older guy it's taking him longer to get into top form and the difference at his age and skill between top form and whatever this is, is stark. It's a major league pitcher vs a AAA pitcher. But once the arm gets loose enough the MPH will jump a little, the control will get to it's usual form and he'll be fine. Just fine, he is what he is, but he won't be a guy you are looking to throw to the curb anymore. 

Two, is he's lost enough control on his pitches that he can't reliably throw strikes. He's lost enough speed on his pitches that he can't fool batters, and the ABS system closing in the zone doesn't help either. They are easily identifying balls, sitting on any mistake and either teeing off or taking the walk. His only hope is that he can lean into his sinker to throw more strikes and get ahead more often, forcing the batter to swing more at his now missing the plate pitches. 

Since One can take a while guess what - this isn't something that can be answered until mid -May which is what we say about everything. But we can canary in the coal mine with his control and MPH over the next few games. The next 2-3 should be better than the first set. What's better?  You'd probably like to see a MPH+ more on his slider fastball and change and something closer to 1/3 balls to 2/3 strikes. This would set him up to a place where he was most of last year, which you could live with. We'll check back in.  

Monday Quickie - Vacation last week

 I TOLD you March is problematic

So since we last left the Nats they... became the Nats we expected. Joey Weimer is not a secret superstar.  The pitching is not just fine. 

They actually didn't do a bad job hitting against LA but it wasn't enough.  The good news is they are done with perennial playoff teams for a series. The bad news is the next week isn't super easy - at least if you believe the early season results.  St. Louis looks to be an average team, while Milwuakee and Pittsburgh(?) (!) look to be pretty decent. This to me is a "hold on" week where you hope to go like 5-5 or 4-6 and not have the bottom drop out of the season by mid-April. 

The big worries currently are James Wood looking incredibly lost at the plate (17Ks in 45 PAs) and Miles Mikolas looking washed. The tissue paper soft underbelly of the pen is also a worry but we knew about that anyway and guys like Miles were supposed to cover for that. Also Millas looks bad and Ruiz is still himself so the C problem isn't going away anytime soon. 

The big pluses are... well Weimer who it's only fair to take the whole season so far and he started so hot a cool off still doesn't take him from the league leaders.  For me it's really Brady House looking ok. He's the 23 year old you are betting on as a piece of the future.  It's nice to see Young hit, Abrams crush, and Garcia look good, but we've seen these all before and know the latter two can be streaky and Young may not be real. We'll come back to all these at the end of the month. Honestly for Abrams probably Memorial Day because that guy can swing a torch for two months than an ice club for the next. 

Really though I think our eyes should be on the mound. Is their major league worst 6.27 ERA a Phillies/Dodgers thing or a Nats thing? Are the Nats pitchers that hittable and easy to take out of the park? Let's see what happens in each series.  

Monday Quickie - Everyone projects to great or terrible

 The Nats? GREAT! 

It was a good Opening Day and a good weekend as the Nats took the series from the Cubs and started the year with one of these for the first time since... 2018?  Wow.  I mean it's close to a 50/50 thing. ok. 

The hero of the series is Joey "Enjoy it while you can" Weimer 6-6 with two walks and 2 homers.  MVP!  On the other side Wood looked really lost in the series striking out 7 times.  The starting pitchers were mediocre but good enough while the pen alternated between great and terrible as you'd kind of expect from 1-2 outings a piece.  But just one series.  We START to even THINK about looking at these guys two weeks in and even then that's just a quarter of the way to a real evaluation around Memorial Day. 

This week is Philly and LA so one more series win would be nice but not expected.   

Baseball! 

Opening Day - Predictions and what not

I probably say this every March but March is my busiest month of the year for various work and personal reasons.  All I ever want to do is drive down the Florida and spend a couple lazy days watching some bad Spring baseball and guys I've never heard of and I've gotten to do that one time in like 25 years. So it goes. 

A lot happened in Nats world in the past week or so 

Josiah Gray got hurt again - a flexor strain that will cause him to miss at least the first couple months. He hadn't pitched for a while but you never know what's exactly suspicious in Spring, unless it's not seeing Ryan Zimmerman then having a reporter yell at you on social media that the team said he was on the back fields playing, which of course was nonsense.  Memories. Gray is under team control through the end of next year and his injury issues and relatively crappy pitching has kept his salary down, so I'm not writing off seeing him pitch again for the Nats, but I'm done thinking he could be any part of the future. 

We've gone over the Max/Trea trade a number of times but the zero they would end up with from that (Ruiz just packed it in after signing his contract. Gerardo Carillo and Donovan Casey never weres) might be the biggest single reason the Nats are where they are right now - rebuilding after a rebuild. 

 

Dylan Crews got sent down to AAA.  He admittedly looked awful in Spring (3-29, 11 Ks in 34 PAs) but it's also Spring and we've learned that doesn't really matter. What does matter though is the mediocre improvement he made over the course of last year with his last best month being a .225/.279/.375 line. As 2025 went on the "the fancy stats say he's good" narrative sort of went away as those drifted down to match his production. Something here is not right and his college numbers were too good for this to be his ceiling. Hopefully the new org can fix it. 

 

These two moves meant the Opening Day Roster was a bit of a mess.  Gray's injury opened the door for Andre Granillo a mostly middling AAAA reliever that has shown a couple flashes in the past two years, while Crews in AAA means Joey Weimer a 27 yo vagabond (the Nats are his 5th franchise) former mild prospect, starts in the majors. Both of these guys are Rochester but this team isn't deep. 

Nothing happened good with the catchers so we start with Ruiz and Millas. I hope Millas is the 1 but I'd expect a time share unless someone busts out.  

The Nats traded for Jorbit Vivas and he fills the last spot in the IF (with Garcia, House, Abrams, Nunez, Tena and Andres Chaparro). Jorbit is mostly just a guy, but has some minor league moments of interest and is still young.  Expect House and Abrams and Garcia to play everyday. Garica might shift around 1B/DH/2B but those hoping to see Abrams off SS should be disappointed. I'm not sure he played anything but that in Spring. 

This leaves the OF to Lile, Wood and Young. This is putting a lot on Young's shoulders defensively but Wood is your star and Lile forced his way into every day play last year. I thought they might try to DH one of those two but committing Crews to AAA ends that idea for now. 

The staff is Cavalli, Mikolas, Irvin, then you have to think Foster Griffin and Zack Littell leaving Brad Lord on the outside looking in. It's a weird thing to take a surprise gift starting pitching surprise and toss it back in the pen for guys like Griffin and Littell. But in general people were always pretty cautious on the idea of Lord the starter. If he can replicate his success in the pen then the back end of Beeter, Henry, and him has a chance to be pretty solid. The rest PJ Poulin, Gus Varland, Ken Waldichuk are guys who are also in the pen right now and likely mean the front end of the pen won't have much of a chance. Better hope that rotation is better than it seems and gives a lot of 5+ inning games. 

 

The Nats were trash last year and could be worse but likely won't be just because it would be tough to.  The hitting is more likely to be as bad, but leaving it in the hands of a bunch of kids means you can't definitively say that. Is Lile real? Can House click? Will Wood take a step to superstar? All things that can happen that would make the offense a bit better. Still bad but middling not offensive. And the dream of every team every year - maybe it all clicks? There's a decent ceiling here.  

The pitching doesn't have the ceiling of the batting but also was remade to fix the floor. Mikolas and Littell provide more security for usable innings above what they got from their starters last year. If Cavalli is ok then the pitching should be better even if Irvin is just a 5th starter innings eater and Griffin flops in his return. And as I said above, Lord, Beeter, and Henry should all be solid meaning at least part of the pen performs. Still it is a should. 

 With the floor of the pitching raised a bit, it's unlikely they hit 60/61 wins which is what their advanced standings (trying to pull as much luck out of the win totals as possible) had them at last year. I can see them at an earned win total in the high 60s. But that just puts them around where they were last year.

Unless the Nats get lucky in development or the performance of their kids this will be a dull long slog toward irrelevancy, with the goal of the season being the new organization identifying and shedding dead weight. See you in 2027? 

Prediction : 67-95 

Monday Quickie - Halfway through spring and what do we know?

 Mitchell Parker and Andrew Alvarez (unsurprisingly) was sent down to the minors adding clarity to the rotation.  It's funny but we'll talk about "we're not sure what's going on with the rotation" but 9 times out of 10 what everyone thinks will happen, happens.  It's just Spring talk.  The Nats brought in Littell and Mikolas and Griffin to start. Cavalli will start. The 5th slot is likely Irvin's until someone, like Herz or Gray or Susana or Williams, shows themselves to be good and ready, or until he busts and Lord takes over.

On that end Gray has looked good in a couple short outings this spring and is on the quickest time frame, likely starting in AAA just to stretch out. Herz just had his first pen session so is a while off, Williams and Susana still not throwing off the mound. Lord seems fine.  Irvin though has pitched ok too so it doesn't seem like he'll bomb out and lose his spot which can happen to fringy guys in Spring because vibes are as good as evaluation when dealing with mediocre players. 

 If we're talking about Spring in a "we don't know what to do, we'll let Spring decide" way, (which is sort of how Cavalli got the Opening Day start) Clayton Beeter looks like he's setting himself up for a closer role (better yet a shut down 7th/8th guy but you know how these things go).  But  Henry has looked good to. A lot of guys are hitting poorly - sorry no catcher is doing well and we haven't had a decision make itself on DH/1B. Seaver King is having a nice Spring but I can't imagine they'd push his clock up based on a few Spring ABs with a team going nowhere soon.

I guess the question is whether Jacob Young looks ready for his role as likely 3rd but possibly 4th OF after bruising his wrist but he's already taking swing so one would assume he'll be a go for Opening Day. 

The big question remains Catcher. Let's see what happens there the next two weeks.  

 

 

Monday Quickie - Spring has sprung

It feels weird having a Spring without the Post or MASN telling us what's up. Having to go by Zuckerman's updates or official MLB news. 

Anyway Zack Littell signs with the Nats which is good for the Nats but a bit weird. Well maybe.  Littell was a reliever that got coverted to a starter in 2023. He was pretty solid in his half season there and in 2024 and put up a good ERA in 2025.  That masked a pretty mediocre pitching effort though. If you were to describe his pitching it would be "I'm going to put a lot of balls in the strike zone. I'm not going to walk anyone and when I do want you to chase you'll do it but I actually don't make you miss on those chases and what you do hit you hit hard"  It's a weird combination that relies on the fact most balls put into play are outs and is one of those things when guys can hit him hard enough the whole thing will come apart fast.  Like "my last season in the majors I started 7 games and had an ERA of 8.50" fast. But at only 30 you wouldn't think now is when it happens. So why wouldn't a team take a chance on this guy for their rotation. Likely to throw 180 fair innings - that has major league value.  I'm a bit confused. Like you'd want to give a promising rookie a shot over this pile of mediocrity but you also just need arms. You always do! 

Anyway the contract includes a mutual option which is good because it may make him tradeable if he surprises to start as opposed to Mikolas that's just an old pitcher trying to pitch well enough to get another deal in 2027. It's a good move for this team so I can't complain but it does leave the question of "aren't there too many starters now?"  That's fine to me.  That's a good question to have, even if it's just "aren't there too many mediocre starters" Like I just said - you always need arms. The rotation will be interesting in how it sets up. 

Really I'm kind of worried they let Lord, who surprised last year on a team that should now be looking hard at every stroke of good luck, fall back to the pen or into AAA for seasoning or whatever. 

Anything to watch this year record wise?

In short, no.  

Longer :  

The vagaries of timing and injuries mean some of the true hitting stars of the era like Trout, Bryce, Freenman and Machado are between milestones, while the slightly older players either couldn't stay stars (Cutch, Longoria) or petered out entirely (Adam Jones, Pablo Sandoval, Jason Heyward). Meanwhile on the pitching side it's becoming harder and harder for guys to get wins or honestly to get to the majors at an age early enough to challenge things. Do they break more often too? Seems like it. 

Offensively 

No one is near 3000 hits with Freeman having the best chance in 4+ years or so. Arenado should get to 2000 this year. 

Stanton is two years away from 500. Judge should go over 400 this year and if you like guys going over 300 homers - this is your year.  Along with Ohtani we should see Marcell Ozuna, George Springer, Mookie Betts, Matt Olsen  and the forgotten star Jose Ramirez all cross that mark. As well as very likely Lindor and quite possibly Alonso. 

Jose Ramirez and Ozuna should also both knock in their 1000th run this year along with Eugenio Suarez.  

In less impressive stats expect Paul Goldscmidt to strike out for the 2000th time, and pass into 8th place all time this year. Lots of guys climbing this list if that's your thing. 

On the Mound 

There was an outside chance we could have been looking at Verlander hit 300 wins this year but an injury in 2024 and bad luck in 2025 means he's at least 2 years away, if he has that in him (I'll bet anything over 10 wins this year brings him back)

Kenley Jansen should get into 3rd place all time in saves showing you want the gap between Rivera/Hoffman and next really means. Chapman should get his 400the save as well.  

Max won't get close to 300 wins but he'll get his 3500th K this year and will also pass into the Top 10 all time likely ending the season 7th (and Verlander should be 6th)  Kevin Gausman should get to 2000 this year.  

 Max should get to 3000 IP this year  

Recent drafts revisted

In our quest to look forward we often can only remember the latest things. For the Nats that means looking to who they could draft in 2026 and checking up on last years #1 pick Eli Willitis.  But the development of the next great Nats team, if soon will rely on the last few drafts. These are the ones I glossed over in my "why did things go wrong" as I was talking about the bust starting in 2020. But it's when the team took a renewed effort into getting these things right and it's worth looking back to see what the Nats did pick up and where they are standing now, starting in 2021. 

 

2021 

(1-11) Brady House  (2-47) Daylen Lile (3-83) Brandon Boissiere

Rest : (7-203) Jacob Young  (10-293) Darren Baker (12-353) Andrew Alvarez 

The 2021 was the first year they went from the old 40 rounds to the current 20 and it gave the Nats their what looks to be their best draft since 2016. House and Lile should both start for the Nats in 2026 and Young could as well, and if not fits in at the 4th OF.  Alvarez is a now older AAA SP who in the vein of Irvin/Parker came up and did well but no one expects much of. Baker is a slap-hitting org guy who got his cup of coffee presumably as a favor to his dad.  

Saenz is a name I recall that you could see as just an arm that comes up

 

2022 

(1-5) Elijah Green (2-45) Jake Bennett (3-84) Trey Lipscomb

Rest : Brad Lord (18-531) 

And they followed it up with a draft that seemed to break the team. Green while still young (22 this year) can't make enough contact and is doing damningly poor for a Top 5 pick. You can't miss so badly with this pick. Bennett had to quickly get Tommy John and was just traded to Boston for a livelier arm. Bennett's not a bad bet but entering the "prove it" age with 45 innings in AA whereas Perales has a couple more years of building. Swap made sense for both teams. Lipscomb was the best they had ready for a while but he's not a major league player. Lord is probably going to be the best of the bunch a true diamond in the rough pitcher that Rizzo's team developed? Anything can happen!

Riley Cornelio, who I mentioned last post was drafted in the 7th round here and could have a place with the Nats 

 

2023 

(1-2) Dylan Crews (2-40) Yohandy Morales (3-71) Travis Sykora 

Rest : Uhhhh

Crews' biggest issue is not his performance (mildly disappointing production but not out of line and with promising fancy stats) but the performance of those drafted around him. Skenes is a superstar, Langford has been a solid all around player for 2 years, Jacob Wilson an All-Star. Rhett Lowder looks like an ace if he can be healthy. Nolan Schanuel has been a useful starter for two years. Kyle Teel looks like a long term answer at catcher. And Matt Shaw should be getting another go round as a starter but Alex Bregman grabbed his spot.  That's 7 out of the Top 15 picks having better career starts than Crews and a few other were HS guys who are ready to make their mark. So did the Nats get it right or wrong here? He's no Elijah Green but in context it could be a huge miss. We're waiting. Yohandy is a solid bat that's going to get a chance at some point and the same chance will be afforded Sykora is a well-liked arm. 

 But the draft is very "Rizzo special"  with more guys who should be out of baseball than even be organizational depth. 

 

2024 

(1-10) Seaver King (1-39) Caleb Lomavita (2-44) Luke Dickerson (3-79) Kevin Bazzell

 Rest : TETT (Too early too tell)

Seaver King is a work in progress with everyone loving his make-up and skills and waiting on the production to follow. Think about Dickerson the same way but less production and more projection as he's just turning 20. Lomavita and Bazzell are both C.  Bazzell isn't hitting so far, and Lomavita is but it's hard to see him make it as a catcher and he might not hit well enough otherwise. These are the guys that make up a lot of the Nats personal Top 20 and as you can read it's not because they forced their way in.  The other drafts have just left spots open for guys with more question marks that can't be answered with "No"s. Of course I won't deny were getting REAL early in guys careers here - first full minor league season. 

 

If I were to take an overview the 2020 COVID draft and 2021 drafts seemed to work out for the Nats in whatever approach they took but the 2022-2023 were back to the big swings that left the minors devoid of depth in search of stars. Great if you hit, troubling if you don't. 2024 seems like it might be the same but I won't land judgment there just yet. 

This is why the Top 20 otherwise is mostly trade returns. The recent years were pretty weak. If you are looking for a miracle, a Nats team competing in 2028, look to the names of the guys you have heard before - the major leaguers, guys like Susana, and names here like Sykora and hope they nearly all work out. Hope for a C to quickly emerge from the deep pool of questions - Ford, Lomavita, Bazzell and yes, Millas has a half-year to do it. Because that's the only way it'll happen. There isn't a next wave coming after this. There's a break coming before we get to Willitis and say 2029 and beyond and if that all doesn't happen that next group post-break will include guys that this group brings back in trade. 

Monday Quickie - Hello? Is anyone out there?

Not you guys but Nats news. Anyone care? 

Zuckerman is doing his thing over at Substack asking a good question - who's going to be the closer.  I'd bet on Clayton Beeter, who I like in part because it's unlikely the Dodgers (a great minor league operation) and Yankees (a minor league that readily develops decent relievers) are both wrong about the guy having solid skills. Cole Henry could also be the choice as a long time org favorite. But given that closer doesn't matter as much as using the best guys in the best spot maybe you let a Drew Smith have it and use Beeter and Henry when you need them? This is more a contract question for these guys than what's best for the team because whoever gets the role can get more money.  

If that race doesn't get you going, the "excitement" in Spring turns to the kids. Watching Eli Willitis a legit prospect get his first major league camp swings in is a real thing to be interested in, but it'll be at least late 2027 before we see him, one would think.  So we're relying on Riley Cornelio (think budget Brad Lord) to be the breakout Spring player? Yikes.   

This is one spring where I'd actually be happy about getting excited about a random guy doing real well.  Why not? 

Drew Smith and lingering questions

 The Nats brought in Drew Smith.  He just went through his second Tommy John but says he's fully recovered.  He's been a live-arm guy who has always outperformed his fancy stats.  If one was to theorize it could be because his fastball is fantastic and when he needs to dial it up to get an out he can do it. But his other pitches aren't good and when all you can do to succeed is dial up the fastball well, that's how you get a guy with two Tommy Johns and under 200 IP over 6 seasons of pitching. 

As a minor league deal it's fine and I guess the Nats have reached the time when they feel thy can pick up bargains. Will they make many more moves? I doubt it but expect a few more here and there.  Maybe a veteran catcher.  Maybe a DH.  Another reliever.  Not anyone that would excite you but gap fillers. 

The signings aren't going to be the focus of the Spring though.  Instead we should be focused on these questions

Will CJ Abrams be here on Opening Day?  The Nats are in rebuild mode with an aim to have the #1 minor league organization in baseball.  It seems pretty clear that trading Abrams, with limited control left, would be a way of getting there.

What is the plan at Catcher?  Ruiz has the money but he's been literally unplayable in recent years.  Do they start with Millas?  Ford? Or is there a vet out there they will throw back behind the plate at first?

What's the DH/OF situation?  Are the Nats having a set OF?  If so who is in it?  Do they go Lile/Wood and forgo D or do they give Young another shot.  If the OF is not set then what's the rotation plan for DH?

What's up with the hurt arms? Josiah Gray should be pitching in the Spring and we'll get a sense there.  Will we hear anything about Herz or Williams, who have been moved to the 60-Day DL? And how does this factor in the projection for the rotation?

Ok Spring is here.  Well Spring is there in Florida.  Let's get started. 

Monday Quickie - Miles to go before we sleep

 Last week the Nats signed Miles Mikolas as their first "FA to sign to trade later" of the off-season and honestly I like the deal. 

 For those that don't remember Miles as one of the quality St Louis starters undone by the Nats staff obliterating his offense in the 2019 NLCS, a little background. He was initially a failed starter for the Padres that went over to Japan and had some success.  The Cardinals brought him back to the states in 2018 and he performed great, then ok in 2019, then got hurt in 2020, injuring his flexor tendon.  He'd get back to full-time work in 2022 and was solid but hasn't been able to replicate that since, likely in large part because at that time he was already 33 years old.  The last 3 years he has simply been an innings eater, reliably going out every 5th day to give you 5-6 innings. 

 He isn't that good anymore but the Nats don't need good. 70 pitchers threw 150 innings last year. The Nats had the two with the worst ERAs with Jake Irvin (5.70) and Mitchell Parker (5.68) and they were that bad. Miles was 11th worst but with a slightly lucky 4.84 ERA, unless age gets his this year, he'll likely put up the same amount of innings as these two with a half-run better ERA.  Still bad, but acceptably so, not "we have to find a fading starter at the end of his career to replace this" bad like Irvin and Parker. 

 Since 2023 Miles has gotten by with impeccable control. If you want to worry that did slip last year to his second worst total since 2018.  But at 2.1 BB/9 it's still very good.  The problem is it has to be because both his ability to keep the ball in the park and his already weak K rate are slipping too. This is age catching up with him and at some point his ability to not give guys free passes won't be able to overcome the fact guys will get hits then take him deep.  Let's hope it's not in 2026. 

I do wonder why it's a 1-yr deal as usually a cheap-o two year deal is the way to go with guys you expect to trade simply because if they are doing well enough that someone else wants them, that cheap 2nd year is the real enticement. But who knows the vagaries of the current market. The Nats needed an innings eater and I mentioned Miles as a possible pick-up (Chris Paddack the other choice went back to Miami) so I guess I'm fine with this. It was needed. There's nothing stupid about it. Maybe he has a few months of good pitching and gets the Nats a worthwhile lottery ticket. 

Monday Quickie - "Pitchers" and "Catchers" report

Baseball will start this week but will it? The Nats are a team in limbo in every way. They have no home station. They have no home coverage. Under new leadership they have no direction (yet).  They have an ownership as stable as the next rumor that they are trying to sell. They are a baseball team this year because they were a baseball team last year and baseball teams just don't go away. 

This Spring will be an exercise in finding the bright spots.  In again looking for what might be part of the next great Nats team and evaluating them.  In again scouring the minors for any unexpected bright spot that can make you think tomorrow will be better than today because today should be very bad. In again trying to figure what the Nats can get for their tradeable assets. 

It'll be about staying out of the league cellar, the division cellar, and maybe sneaking into 4th.  It'll be about being a feeder team in August and playing spoiler in September. It'll be about the baseball happening around the Nationals more than the baseball happening within. 

It'll be about Cade Cavalli and James Wood and Dylan Crews and Brad Lord and Daylen Lile and Brady House and a lot of other names of kids in their early to mid 20s and a lot of prayers that things go right. 

It'll be about dives in the hole and long throws and ninth inning comebacks and moonshot homers. It'll be about getting too excited about a 4 game winning streak. It'll be about reading too much into stats on April 24th even though every year we tell ourselves not to do that. It will likely be bad and inconsequential most of the time but it will be baseball.  Baseball will start this week. Even for the Nats. 

Who watches the Nats-men?

The Washington Post sports department is no more. That really sucks for Nats fans and leaves the Nats coverage in limbo, especially after MASNs dissolution earlier in the year. This begs the question - who is covering the Nationals? I mean REALLY covering them, not covering them like me, giving out free content that's worth the price of admission.

I don't know about local TV stations which will presumably continue their usual light coverages of the team and local sports talk which will continue to talk and interview guys to fill time in the long summer. The Washington Times is unlikely to move from their position of AP aggregator with the occasional Nats column. Jessica Camerato is mlb.com's Nationals reporter and should be fine for game updates but any digging into the team comes with the news from Pravda caveat. The Athletic, one giant grift to earn its founders money while killing off local sports sections, never fulfilled it's "cover every team" promise and seems unlikely to do so.  Perhaps though there will be a "DC" reporter - covering all the remaining teams until football season starts. I'm sure Dan Steinberg, former long-time Postie now in a management role over there, is at least considering it. 

 The best bet though probably is Mark Zuckerman taking things back to his beginnings. He's in a slightly different place now and probably has grander designs given the crash of the Post, but some sort of DC specific site with a dedicated Nats guy feels likely to me, if they can get it off the ground. 

Such is the state of Nats coverage. And coverage is important. With no one holding their feet to the fire, with no one holding them at least sometimes publicly accountable, the management of the team can feel a bit freer to do whatever they want, and if whatever they want to do is make this team the Pirates then that's what they'll be. 

How it went wrong

Teams rebuild all the time. If you aren't blessed with an owner willing to spend your team cycles through times when they spend more and times when they spend less based on the talent they have. What you don't do is rebuild from a rebuild. This is what the Nats are doing and it means one simple thing : 

The Nats screwed up. 

So the question is where and when and like many things that are wrong it's not just one moment, but a series of bad decisions and bad luck that lead them to this point. 

1) The Nats had a stretch of very bad drafts. 

 The Nats were never really known as a strong development team and their drafts were first pumped by the can't misses of Strasburg and Bryce, then by Rizzo's "all or nothing" strategy paying off with guys like Rendon and Giolito. But the strategy of all or nothing in a place like the draft usually gives you nothing and the Nats had very thin drafts and in the quest for a title that thin layer of talent from 2013-2016, Nick Pivetta, Dane Dunning, Jesus Luzardo, was the needed trade fodder. 

Still one decent player a year can hold a org up. But the 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2019 drafts were all terrible ones for the Nats. The 2018 one especially stands out with their first 3 picks and 6 of their first 7 never reaching the majors.  Leaving the Nats with the emptiest of coffers when time came to rebuild

2)  The Nats bet on the wrong horses / don't develop well.

You don't trade ALL your best talent and the Nats did keep guys around they liked. They ended up holding on to Austin Voth, Erick Fedde, Carter Kieboom, Seth Romero - guys that amounted to very little -while dealing guys that did something. How much of that is talent and how much development?  Who was asked for and who did the Nats say were off-limits?  We'll never know but they basically rolled snake eyes on the high draft picks kept around.

3)  The Nats got "unlucky" with the Strasburg signing

 In hindsight the way to go was to let both the oft-injured Strasburg and Rendon go and bet on keeping Trea and Max. That's hindsight.  In the moment the Nats felt (and the fans wanted) them to keep one or both of these champions. The Nats bet on Strasburg and lost. Of course if they bet on Rendon they would have likely lost too. Not much they could have done here but once you sign him he's one of your tent poles for the next half-decade. 

4) The Nats misread the COVID season.

A team not committed to just spending should always be prepared to rebuild as sports are fickle beasts and guys that hit .300 today might hit 250 tomorrow. The Nats though got caught flat-footed. Post Championship the Nats were looking to compete still. They had just signed Corbin and backed it up with a signing of Strasburg long term. You could see the wheels turning on how the next team would shape up.  Would it involve Max and Trea? Soto? Where would guys like Kieboom, Robles, Voth, and Luis Garcia fit in? 

Then 2020 happened and Stras barely pitched and Corbin was bad and Fedde wasn't progressing and Voth seemed outmatched and Robles regressed and Kieboom looked like he was dropped on a baseball field from an alien planet. Without Rendon the line-up wasn't good enough to carry the team. Surely this was just the weirdness of the COVID season. So the Nats didn't see a pitching staff that simply didn't exist anymore and didn't rebuild right then and there. Instead waiting a year and seeing what 2021 would bring

5) The Nats blew the Max/Trea trade along with several others in 2021 

Halfway through 2021 and obviously not a real contender anymore because the staff was basically just Max, the Nats decide to pull the trigger on the Max/Trea trade.  They sent them off to the Dodgers to get the core of the next great Nats team, potentially built around Juan Soto (but likely not).  In came a ton of minor leaguers headlined by two of the Dodgers top prospects in Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray. 

They were legit prospects but two mid Top 100, older for prospects, guys who were more likely to be contributors than stars. Still we don't know what the Nats were offered and you take the best you can. Perhaps this was it. But the best thing they got overall was Lane Thomas* and that's not the rebuilding core you expect to have after trading away what might be two HoFers (one in his prime with time left on the contract) and a bunch of useful pieces. Just whiff after whiff here

At this point, even though they would objectively nail the Soto trade, the Nats were done. That trade became all the Nats had to rebuild with. The 2020 draft and beyond weren't barren but they didn't produce the immediate talent you'd hope for heading into what they knew at the time would potentially be a rebuild.  Even the incredibly deep 2023 draft had the Nats with the #2 pick grabbing Crews who has developed perfectly well but also has not been impactful as six of the 12 players drafted immediately after him**. 

There was not a bunch of guys creating stars and filling in gaps. There was one - Brad Lord.  Maybe 2 if you count "defensive OF" which Jacob Young was. There maybe more coming but the timing for the rebuild when you give up in 2022 is to see a path forward in 2025, which they did. And see it start to come together in 2026, which it did not.

 

The Nats didn't see the issues of 2020 were real and long lasting and waited a half-season too long to begin the rebuild. Thanks to a traditionally weak drafting ability they didn't have the organizational depth to support the rebuild, creating very little talent while keeping the wrong guys. When tasked to begin the rebuild whiffed on a number of trades giving the Nats half the base they might expect and they couldn't find immediate impact guys in the draft or through international signings. 

Rizzo blew it. As a bad drafter who relied on big bets paying off but a decent trader, he needed to nail all the trades to set this up or get lucky again in the draft.  He didn't get lucky and he got the trades wrong at the worst time.  

 

 *Drew Millas was part of this group so I guess we can say the jury is still out. I guess.  

**and four of those were HS guys  

Monday Quickie - Abrams

I do have more to come but you know - snow storm .

So for today - what do you expect back for CJ Abrams. They don't HAVE to trade CJ but it seems EXTREMELY unlikely that they will be competitive in the time before he becomes a FA.  Are they going to be good enough to convince him to stay?  Do you take that chance instead of selling him on a decently high note with a couple years of control left?  The way I read the Nats management the answer is no. 

So what do you want back for him? What do you expect back for him?  

 If it's like Gore would you be happy with 2-3 prospects that are near the top of a middling minor league organization?  The quantity over quality approach?  Or are you wanting a more solid prospect.  A Top 100 type that you can at least point to as likely to be a major leaguer of some level than the lottery ticket approach.  Is there anyone else you are looking to sell? Luis Garcia seems like he could go.  Jacob Young? He doesn't quite have a place here if you love Daylen Lile.   

GOING... GOING... GORE!

To the Rangers for 5 prospects. 

 I'll delve into it more when we have the names but the Rangers system is weaker but in part due to injury and bad 2025s - which yes, I know but these guys can turn around pretty quickly.  

The name that is in there Gavin Fien, a guy that's arguably Top 2-4 in the Rangers system but also arguably outside the Top 100 overall. He is supposed to hit well and profiles to be a decent fielding 3B or a 1B/RF type (good enough glove to play SS in HS, not slow but probably not quick enough to be a major league SS).  But he's 18 and with 10 A-ball games under his belt a long way off. 

 Prepare to stink!  

https://www.mlb.com/news/mackenzie-gore-trade-to-rangers-from-nationals

 

 

UPDATE : 

Names already in.  We were never going to see Sebastian Walcott (their best prospect and a legit top one in baseball) but I was hoping to see some of the arms that looked good but had off years for reasons.  

Alejandro Rosario was one of them.  A real good arm but out until 2027.  Which is worse when he already missed all of 2025.  (He tried to wait out needed TJ surgery but it didn't work and he got it recently) That means he'll be throwing again after a full two years off and at age 25 not throwing in AA yet. But still one of the names I hoped to see. 

Devin Fitz-Gerald is a nothing IF. A kid but one that projects to have no pop and no one is raving about any of his other skills.  Will have to surprise.  

Yeremy Cabrera is another kid (under 20 last year) this one being all skills and hoping to see it translate into... something. The speed does work on the basepaths and he has a good eye but that's about it right now. That's not nothing but those are your complimentary skills. 

Abimelec Ortiz is a non-athletic (for baseball players - more athletic than us probably) 24 yo with pop but swings and misses a bit much and gets eaten alive by lefties. Maybe there's a platoon bat here, but probably not.

Offseason Position Discussion : RP

First I'd like to thank the Nats for doing next to nothing this off-season so we can get through all this without being interrupted.  Much appreciated

The Nats 2024 was a stop gap year in relief where they brought in some older guys they never meant to keep and traded out some assets at the end of the year. Outside of Kyle Finnegan and Jose Ferrer there wasn't much of a plan.  They signed a weaker set of guys in 2025 and hoped for the best.  It didn't happen. The Nats had arguably the worst relief pitching in basebal in 2025. 

Presumed Plan : 

Clayton Beeter and pray for rain?  If there's a place where "plan" is going to far, it's the bullpen where the Nats are going with a bunch of untested arms because why sign anyone? It doesn't matter! <insane laughter as fans go mad> 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

It's basically a given that the place you try to save money is in the pen.  You don't know how much you will use them. Guys can have weirdly good performances out of nowhere.  It makes sense if you feel the need to cheap out somewhere to do it there. The Nats have historically felt that way since riding out actual good pens very early in the "Strasburg Window".  

 

Of course that was Rizzo and it's possible the new management feels differently. So we don't know. But it does seem clear that money isn't going to be spent so why assume it would be spent here?  

My Take : 

Jesus Christ this could be bad.  They were the worst last year and right now they are putting no effort into making it better. 

From the comments some of you seemed resigned to a terrible team to the point where you are like "signing anyone would actually be a mistake!"  Stop that. That's owner talk.  They have money. They can make the team good here and there (another bat, another arm, a few more bullpen arms) and not block anyone. Playing bad kids isn't helping anyone. Playing a ton of cheap talent to "see what you have" is not to find something good but to pay people nothing for a year without getting yelled at. Yell.  

 If the Nats aren't going to try to be playoff worthy that's a decision I'll accept in the "that's what teams do" way.  But if they aren't going to try to be major league worthy - nah.  I'm not down for that. 

 Anyway sign a couple of real arms for the pen!  They need them!  Desperately!  

 

Offseason Position Discussion : SP

2024 was a pleasant surprise for the Nats in terms of the SP as while Gore didn't develop as he should, Trevor Williams pitched like a near ace for the third of the season he was healthy and Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, and DJ Herz all surpassed expectations.  Yes, that only meant they were all "usable" but a staff of an near ace, a stretch 2, and three average arms is pretty good, especially on a shoestring budget

So the Nats basically pushed to repeat the year with FA pick up Michael Soroka taking the place of the injured DJ Herz. It would be a stretch sure if all these guys did the same but Gore should be better and if we got a "one better, one same, one worse" from the rest that wouldn't be bad at all. 

Of course with all these guys going over expectation it was probably more reasonable to expect "one same, one worse, one much worse" but I'm not an optimist. Anyway

1) Gore was NOT better. At least not for the whole year.  He was much better early on but wear and tear and the eventual  injuries seemed to knock him back down to average again.

2) Irvin and Parker were both much worse. As was Williams but at least Williams was starting from "ace" which left him as just a guy (who also had some bad luck to counter his good luck in 2024) 

Soroka was basically what you wanted but given the SP took about three steps back he wasn't the final piece but maybe their second best arm? Adding insult to injury the Nats made a questionable signing from Japan in soft tosser Shinnosuke Ogasawara who promptly was as bad as everyone thought he'd be. 

If you are looking for some good news . Brad Lord looked very competent stretched into the starting role for half the year while Andrew Alvarez and Cade Cavalli both had September that suggest they might be able to hang in the majors.  

Presumed Plan : 

I'll guess now Gore, Lord, Cavalli, ?, ?.  The money is on Josiah Gray getting first crack at it in the "ok we're not Mike Rizzo's staff. Can we do something here" way.  Foster Griffin, from Japan, who has at least always excelled at keeping the ball in the park is likely 5 but that's more an open spot for whatever impresses. 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Nats aren't competing next year.  They are looking at what they have while likely trying to show case some of what's here with a clock already started.  Gore might be moved, but he's a pitcher who shows best when healthy and you are usually healthy to start the year. You might get a better deal waiting a couple months and having Gore throw some ace like numbers out there.  

 

Behind Gore it's literally just "I don't know this" With Cavalli the closest thing to an interesting arm you want to see.  The season is mostly about him and Jarlin Susana who could make his debut.  

My Take : 

They should sign someone. Yeah yeah "we need to look at these guys".  You know at least the base of what you have.  An oft-injured #1 a couple young guys fairly close to injury comebacks, a guy who you are rolling the dice on from Japan, and a guy who's never pitched a complete season before.  Unless you want to kill your bullpen you need someone to soak up innings.  Miles Mikolas. Chris Paddack.  Someone your expectation is that they throw 150 innings, not your hope. 

 Beyond that I personally like Gore and like to see a guy who has ace stuff even if he doesn't throw it all the time.  Gives a reason to tune in. So I hope they don't trade him but I expect they will. Could be tomorrow could be at the deadline. 

And the rest is just whatever. This isn't a team with a plan it feels like. Instead it's a team using this year to figure out what the plan is.  

 

Offseason Position Discussion : DH

Josh Bell returned to the Nats as a cheap DH option for 2025 to bridge the gap between competitiveness and not. A well-liked vet who had a couple of quietly solid years with the Nats in 2021 and 2022 Bell had bounced around unable to get back to levels you want a guy focused on hitting to be at. The reunion looked very dicey as Bell started extremely slow and followed up a good May with a terrible June. But Josh's second half was better and he ended the season very hot putting up a .292 average with 6 homers in the last month. 

All in all it wasn't a failure for the Nats at the position, but in the plan that he was a bridge player as the Nats enter 2026 more unsure than entering 2025.  Bell himself is off to play in Minnesota leaving the Nats looking for a replacement. Lile and Wood both spent time at DH as the Nats rotated in OFs to get ABs. 

Presumed Plan : 

???? Sign someone I guess? 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

The Nats would prefer to see if Wood and/or Lile can hang in the outfield. More value lies there. So while either of them could end up there by September designating them a DH to start the year is unlikely. The team has no obvious options staring them in the face so it's hard to come up with the presumed plan. which could range from letting kids get hacks to doing a rotating OF situation where the DH is a rest spot to signing just a guy to fill the role. Since the new Nats management has to do SOMETHING one assumes, grabbing a veteran bat late feels like the most reasonable option 

My Take : 

Internally, there are lots of bad options from the "Better to keep in AAA and see if they are something first" Yohandy Morales and Harry Ford to the "but he can't really hit" use of any of the kids that might be on the bench this year like Robert Hassell and Jacob Young. It's hard for me to believe the team would move in this direction just to save a few bucks.  If they do, god save the fan. 

 

I also think the Wood/Lile situation will force one of them to DH at some point in the next 1-2 years but which one is a question that needs to be answered and only can be by putting them both in the OF. This makes sense and while I'm not against setting one of these guys at DH to start the year, I think it's more prudent to settle everything first.  

 

So we end up here - signing another Josh Bell to see what you can get. There are two minds about this for me - well three but I don't think they are actually going to sign a good bat (1) sign a guy that WAS good that can possibly teach the kids something.  Paul Goldschmidt? Cutch! That seems to be about it as Carlos Santana is still good and other guys are past their selling date.  I talked about Luis Arraez back when discussing first base, I guess he'd fit here too.  (2) Sign someone in their 20s and see what happens. Eloy Jimenez is the big name the former can't miss guy that did ok and has been on a career walk-about the past couple of years. Will Brennan looks to be a AAA hitter but that's more than you can say for some of these guys. No great choices but you are aiming for someone who will come to DC for cheap to have a chance. 

 

I don't care really. Assuming they aren't in it to do anything this is a stop gap player.  I like the last two names better just because if you find a lottery ticket maybe you can keep the money but whatever. Just do something a major league organization would do.  

Monday Quickie - Back on the horse

The holidays are over and it's time to get serious. 

But what does that mean? 

For the Nats we still don't know. After the trade of Jose Ferrer for Harry Ford the Nats made two moves. 

1) Traded Jake Bennett for Luis Perales.  This was a "good prospect for good prospect" trade where the Red Sox looking for a certain type of pitcher, were willing to give up a good prospect of their own. Perales is arguably "more certain" than Bennett - younger, closer to the majors and both missed 2024 with injuries - but we all know not to take that too seriously for pitching prospects.  

This doesn't really tell us anything about the Nats management mindset

2) Signed Foster Griffin. This is a chance on a guy that had a great pedigree a decade ago, but he never really clicked as a starter in the majors. Muddled through a bit of relief for a couple of teams and their AAA affiliates, before heading to Japan to reset himself as a starter. It worked so now he comes back presumably in that role. He doesn't give up homers, but he doesn't fool many people either and his control is here and there. It's not 100% clear that combination can hang in the majors - really depends on how many of those balls in the park are hits. A great defense would help and I'm not sure the Nats have one... but maybe they could with some shifts toward that. Nunez at SS.  Not having Wood and Lile both in the OF.  But that's not been determined

Again not really telling us anything. 

 What are we looking for? A trade of a guy that could be / should be part of a winning Nats team in say 2027 - Gore/Abrams. Or a signing of someone that would be the same.  Some indication of whether this team is in for trying something the next couple year, or not. Once we see that we can set our expectations, not only for 2026 but 2027 and maybe 2028 as well