These kids are allright

It's Review the Team Memorial Day Week (tm)(r) (c) and after 53 games (1 game under 1/3 of the season) there are bright spots in the Nats "Still rebuilding?" season. 

James Wood has got to be first and foremost.  We won't reiterate every point we've made so far this year about the budding superstar but he's gotten a tiny bit less selective in order to smash the ball more and that has worked out well. Not that he was ever too selective. He grips and rips. But he also has a good sense of the strike zone so he grips and rips at pitches he can usually hit. If pitchers beat him, good for them, but they are going to have to do just that. 

He still could get better. I don't think it has to do with plate approach. This is working for him. However if he could hit a few fewer ground balls (52.8%) we're talking more screeching line drives and balls over the fence.  The BA might drop a little, or honestly it might not, but if it does the trade off in extra XBHs would likely be worth it. 

He still needs to field better or the Nats need to look at him as a DH. Let's not make the Soto mistake again trying to convince ourselves someone bad is ok out there because they are young. Yes, Wood is more athletic, truly fast, but he's not a good fielder. Being strong doesn't make you a good hitter. Its skills and he doesn't have it at this level. I mean keep him out there if he wants to be. The hits matter more. But if he's agreeable to it, it's probably the right idea. 

We recently talked about CJ Abrams but he's improved every year he's been in the majors across two teams and he's hitting his stride now with a stretch to start the year as good as any that he has put up. He has cooled down in the past week so he didn't get to "best stretch ever" but if this isn't the introduction to a cold stretch he's going to end up with his best season ever. Like Wood he's swinging harder and it's paying off, though unlike Wood he's not every selective and that probably will keep him a step behind Wood as maybe a star but not a superstar. I suppose he could learn that once he sustains strong hitting without going into long droughts. 

Fielding wise Abrams is like Wood in that he stinks and probably shouldn't be playing his position. Unlike Wood though DH doesn't feel right for him. His arm is fine for 3B but his reaction time is slow.  If it wasn't his speed would be making him have elite range instead of terrible range. This has been very consistent over his career. You have to keep his bat and legs in the line-up so... second base in his future?  

 

It's early in both the transition and season to judge a relief pitcher but Cole Henry seems to have taken to the role like a fish to water. If not for one horrendous outing against the Mets he'd be sporting a 0.00 ERA. He's not the traditional reliever though blowing guys away or getting them to jam the ball into the ground. No, he's a flyball guy but guys at the plate don't read his stuff well and can't hit him hard. It's not necessarily the standard recipe for success so the fancy stats don't love him but until he stops inducing that type of contact you kind of gotta assume he can keep it up. Given he's not stressing his arm trying to throw 100MPH screwballs if he simply keeps up what he's doing it seems like he could have a long successful career in the pen. 

In a similar but lesser vein Jackson Rutledge has done well converting to the pen as well. He's more in line with the throwing smoke get grounders reliever types though not quite fast enough while still being prone to fits of wildness. There's room for improvement but he's under 20 games into his relief career on any level. Chances are he can improve a bit and he's already sitting at a level that would be a good pen piece. The fancy stats don't love him and given his limited time here he's probably more likely for a fallback but why not be optimistic? Like I said he can get better.

 

Mackenzie Gore should be great. He really should be. He's leading the league in K/9 right now, and has perfectly reasonable number for hits, homers, and walks. Everything is showing a marked improvement from last year.  And yes he is better but he should still be even better than what he's showing and should be showing even more improvement.  What's up? It seems like batters don't usually hit Gore but when they do they REALLY do. Mostly they can't hit his pitches but when they can they can easily squared up. That seems to suggest his mistakes are big ones. The bad curves don't miss they hang. The bad fastballs aren't off the plate they are meatballs. If he can fix that and he's an ace. But all this complaining is about a guy who's a 1/2 right now and that's good! 

Jake Irvin is fine.  I know we want more and the ERA sort of suggests more but he's a 4.25-4.50 ERA pitcher and you know what? That's ok.  He has good control of the strike zone, and controls the running game so the hits and homers he will give up, and he will, aren't game losing. Sit at the back of the rotation for the next 2-3 years and let the Nats not worry about one spot. Who can complain about that? 

Mitchell Parker is basically Jake Irvin, with a couple big exceptions.  First he seems to have a skill in keeping the ball in the park. I can hazard to guess it's mostly because he's left-handed. All the things that make Irvin ok - a couple pitches that look the same and a great extension giving the batter a few micro-seconds fewer to react - Parker has something similar but you see a lot fewer LHP. Given that, the batters have a slightly more difficult time reading Parker, swing at more pitches out of the zone and hit more balls to the opposite field. This doesn't really limit hits but homers are about hitting the right pitch perfectly and it just seems harder to do that against Mitchell.  The other thing would be he's 2 1/2 years younger and while Jake is Jake, Mitchell could get better. I'm not sold that he will but he could. If he doesn't, he should join Jake in the back of the rotation for several years and maybe you don't need two of those types in theory but in practice the more rotation worthy pitchers you have the better. 

Monday Quickie

 After a sweep (two games but still counts!) of Atlanta the Nats hosted SF and lost 2 of 3 with a fairly anemic offensive output. Now they face a fairly daunting stretch, traveling cross-country to take on AL West leading Seattle and the NL Wild Card hopeful Arizona Diamondbacks, then back home for a series against the Cubs.  It's Memorial Day week so things are now "real" and getting 4 wins here would be great for a team hoping to scrape .500. A 1-2 win blow-out would basically make it a claw-back summer.  (so as usual expect the 3 wins) 

Tomorrow we'll start going over the 1/3 of the season situation now that guys like Mitchell Parker have returned to Earth and James Wood has not

In the meantime Read Rosenthal's fairly scathing take on the Nats. "Good teams both spend and develop. The Nationals do neither" Ouch!

Rosenthal: Nationals remain among MLB’s bottom feeders despite lengthy rebuild - The Athletic

Darkest before the dawn

 But it's also really dark pretty much an hour after sunset so who really knows.

 The point is : Winning Streak!  

The Nats crushed the Orioles, coming back late on Friday and winning back to back games that were almost over before the 3rd inning began. Last night they continued the hot starts, scoring 4 runs before getting out of the second. This little run has taken them from the "oh uh are they among the worst non Colorado teams in baseball?" back to "this is who we thought they'd be" and a 72 win pace. As we are nearing Memorial Day weekend and the usual "OK NOW let's seriously look at these guys" I think this should be the general consensus on how to look at the season. Ups and downs will happen. It's a 70-75 win team. I'll be genuinely surprised at anything else through the trade deadline (after that rosters and targets can change) 

If you are a Nats fan - basically the last 7 days were what you wanted to see. Abrams and Wood leading the team with great lines across 6 games. Crews knocking a couple out of the park while not striking out at all the last two games. Jacob Young going 3 for 8 in limited time.  Luis Garcia doing ok.  It was a good week for the young core.  Let's hope Crews MRI isn't serious but the kid is young without much injury history so I'm cautiously optimistic there.

We mentioned CJ Abrams a couple posts ago and it's worth going back to him because this guy was meant to be a star, a Top 10 prospect in all of baseball two years in a row. These things are not guaranteed, but when you've managed to corral three of them onto your team at the same time chances of you going 0-3 has gotta be very slim. It could be that Abrams is just having an extended hot streak but it's just as hot as anything he had going last year.  He had a 36 game run of .309 / .401 / .561 centered around June, he's at .313 / .371 / .569.  Another week like this and he'll put that 2024 streak behind him. Abrams did start his career in a worse spot than people thought but every year Abrams has improved. This could be the "put it together" year.  

The Soto trade will work out for the Nats in numbers but then it was always going to do that. Nearly every trade of a vet for kids gives you generally more value.  The pure numbers guys love to talk about that even though really would you want 5 kids giving you 13 WAR over 5 seasons or one guy giving you 10 over 2+?  I hope you understand the latter is more conducive to, you know, winning stuff. 

BUT the Soto trade may actually just work out period. Wood looks to be a star. Right there it's almost a push. Abrams being a star too? Hard to not say it's a win, even if it took a couple years. Gore flirting with being an ace? Ok now it's a clear win. Jarlin Susana given he's just 21, remains a Nats top pitching prospect. He's hanging in in AA which is a perfectly fine place for him to be. And that brings us to the last piece*, Robert Hassell.

With Crews going down the Nats are bringing up Hassell from AAA. Hassell's journey has been kind of a long one.  He was seen as a very strong prospect, dominating A-ball at age 19, but hurt his hand in 2022 and has been trying to play through his return to the game.  2023 was dismal but 2024 showed signs of life and with the space available in AAA Hassell has gotten his chance there.  The results are... mixed. Overall he's hitting ok, but not walking enough and his power is pretty moderate.  His May overall has been very good but that was more a scorching opening week than a sustained performance. It's likely he won't perform in the majors but he's not here to do that. He's here to get a taste. 

The overall point though with these kids coming into form is the Nats have to do something to support this round.  It isn't as strong as the 2011ish time frame where generational picks, kids, and slow starters all lined up perfectly. This is just kids and mostly just bats. Where's their Gio? Where's their Werth? The Nats did set up some pieces for success. This past off-season was the time to strike. This next off-season will be late but better late than never. 

*well technically Luke Voit was that 

Weekend Goals

 Clearly the run to near .500 didn't work out. Instead they went 1-5 vs Cleveland and St. Louis and followed that up with a 1-3 set versus Atlanta. Now they are facing Baltimore - the last bad team they'll play until the middle of June.  

For all the small victories the Nats can have I do think a series win against Baltimore ranks up there.  "We might be bad, but we're not YOU guys" The good news is even a 1-2 series loss puts the teams at even for the season.  So just don't get swept. That isn't too much to ask.

Keep pounding

 Davey inherted a team that went 95 and 97 and in the next three season with mostly the same roster went 82-80!!!!, 93-69, and 26-34!!!!. With an admittedly slightly worse roster went... 65-97!!!! Still with maybe the best hitter in baseball the year after went 55-107!!!!

 

Arguably unestablished somewhat raised in the org Nats with significant playing time that left at 29 or younger :

• Victor Robles, dog house guy for Davey, finally left at 27.  Went to Seattle and hit like a star for half a season. 
• Michael A Taylor flourished under Dusty, immediately back-tracked under Davey, traded away and showed another solid couple years left in him. 
• Joe Ross had the worst two seasons of his career under Davey before a decent one in 2021.  in 2024, his first healthy season after leaving had a better season than ever under Davey'
• Erick Fedde, did come together under Davey... and then lost it again.  Better seasons in 2024 and 2025 than ever under Davey
• Austin Voth started hot under Davey but degraded to the point of almost being out of the game.  A credible starter in Baltimore and reliever in Seattle since.
• Wilmer Difo, WILMER DIFO, decent cup of coffee under Dusty, got worse under Dusty but even more so under Davey to the point he was almost out of baseball. Went to Pittsburgh  PITTSBURGH and had an average year.

On the flip side... you have to stretch and say maybe Andrew Stevenson and Tres Barrera were guys that got a real shot here that didn't do any better elsewhere. Maybe Tanner Rainey though he's only 3 appearances into 2025.  

 You want me to say something nice?  Well if you want to say Soto is Daveys then maybe he is the right manager for an amazing HOF level talent young player. Wood seems to be doing just fine. Gore we can argue about if he's reaching his potential, but is certainly better, so far this year. Maybe him and Mitchell Parker vibe? 

But Abrams, a high quality player has been streaky and already had one beef with the manager. Luis Garcia Jr seems to have a similar hot cold performance matched up with a just cold relationship. Crews, we can at least agree he's struggling, right? I'm not going to get called out as a Crews hater for noting a guy hitting .181 / .239 / .313 a quarter into the season is struggling, am I? 

 

The guy keeps failing. Dusty, original Davey, and even Matt Williams didn't fail like this. Frank Robinson has a better winning percentage with the Nats. Hell Jim Riggleman has a better winning percentage with the Nats. 

Maybe it IS the roster.  Hell I'll agree and say it's gotta mostly be the roster.  I don't think Davey on the Dodgers makes them a .500 team. But what is here that makes you think he needs to stay because this record, this history says he has to go. 

But hey, I'll meet you half-way.  In conceding most managers are generally fine, we can fire Davey but we can hire back Manny Acta for you.

FIX THE PEN

 Or honestly fix Davey. 

From last night's post-game presser Davey trotted out the old very thoroughly debunked idea that you don't use your closer on the road in the 9th in a tie game. The idea is "well what if you need a save later?" which completely ignores the reality that you need to get to the point you need a save. YOU CAN'T SAVE A GAME YOU ALREADY LOST! The math all works out - you want to constantly put your best pitcher out there if you can.  Obviously rest and match-ups all come into consideration but that's the basic truth.  

There are good arguments that managers have a limited effect and it's hard to judge good vs bad when it's the roster construction that matters most in baseball. It's far less a place where a good coach can "take his'un and beat your'un and take your'un and beat his'un"  That being said, if all that we can do is take a look at the record and judge on vibes, I ask : when have the vibes around this team been any good since 2019? Maybe last year they were passable? 

The old school policing. The general lack of ever taking blame? Are we just waiting around to hope the mix  of players hits right again, and Rizzo limits him bullpen options again, so that he can maybe get a team back to the promised land. 

 I know winning percentage is a bad stat to use but also "lowest winning percentage of a manager to win a World Series" has to account for something. "Every single one of those ones with better winning percentages must have just had better teams" doesn't follow, at least to me. 

And if winning percentage doesn't matter why does winning a series? That's mostly the team, right? Like you have to pick a side and either say these things matter just a little and the last 5+ seasons are telling one story or these things don't matter at all and who cares who manages and in that case just fire the guy. 

The way I see it the only arguments for keeping him are "who cares?" or a carefully constructed house of cards where winning the Series 6 years ago counts more today than the 5 seasons that followed because of reasons and we also have to generally ignore half of that season and various questionable strategic decisions and the fact he seemed to be given a purposely limited roster in order to quell his worst impulses and all the obvious luck it takes to win short series?  

Go ahead make your arguments if they aren't these.  I'd love to hear them. I was done with this guy after 2022. Nothing since has proven me wrong. Maybe you have the secret argument.

Monday Quickie - as dead as the team

Yes, I'm not posting as much.  Busy and the team quickly became uninteresting. I should just resort to putting up pics of James Wood.

The Nats got swept by the mediocre Cardinals. Have lost their last 5 after clawing their way back to 2 games under .500.  There's a fairly decent stretch of good teams coming up. ATL, who has basically been an above average team since their awful start for 7 games, SFG, SEA, ARI, CHC, NYM with only Texas and Baltimore for breaks.  Still. before we pack it in let's remember the Nats have played oddly good against good teams and oddly bad against bad ones.

Positives

Lucas Sims is gone.  After trying to hold onto him as long as possible to get value out of that 3 million dollar deal he signed the Nats finally let him go, meaning both of the obvious Opening Day roster mistakes of Poche and Sims are finally gone. Two guys that were bad bets, that performed poorly in Spring Training, that should have never made the roster, finally where they should be : Not here. It's not that the Nats have a ton of solid replacements lined up, or even interesting AAA arms. It's just that even uninteresting AAA arms are a lottery ticket where as Sims and Poche were just wet pieces of paper with maybe numbers written on them, you can't tell it's all smeared.

Let's talk about CJ Abrams 

Since back from his mild injury Abrams is raking to the tun of .357 / .423 / .486.  Abrams and Wood in the top of the order is an exciting combo. Adding Lowe as a general solid bat means a tough inning for any pitcher.  He's swinging at a few more pitches and striking out a touch more but it's more than made up for by hitting the ball a lot harder and at a better angle meaning fewer GB and more line drives. 

We've seen this type of run from Abrams before but at 24 there's still time to think this is sustainable and if it is that means two stars at the plate under 25. That's something right?

Monday Quickie - Nats win a series

This demands a blog post said the commenter so ok. Here! 

Actually this is more - Monday so I can do this short and sweet and I don't care. 

Nats are weird. They've won series from Arizona, Cincinnati, and the Dodgers.  They've lost to the terrible Marlins and the Pirates. Are they as good as the best or as bad as the worst? 

Parker looked bad again matching the "he can't keep that up" stuff we talked about earlier. Williams was not good but it didn't matter. Gore looked more like "good last year Gore" but that's ok if he can make that his usual floor. As we saw that can still hold a good team in check for a chunk of the game. 

The offense feels perfectly ok with Abrams back. I like what Lowe is doing and I think when the weird 1B renaissance calms down (check out some of the names of guys hitting real well at 1B) I think he'll settle into the Top 10. 

I do wish Davey would settle on a line-up but that is not his style. If I'm not wrong they've used 30 different lineups in 35 games.

Plug along. Get better. Don't let anyone get hurt. 

You know what - let's go for more than that.  The Indians aren't this good - they have a weird "get blown-out or win close" thing going on that usually settles on "not that good".  The Cardinals are just perfectly meh. The Nats can win both the home series, go 4-2 and get the fans thinking about .500. 

Where the Nats stand - May

The 2025 picture

The Nats sit at 14-18 today  7 games out of first place in the East and 3.5 out of the final WC spot. Of course numbers like this are silly early (everyone but the Rockies are "in it"). Really it's more looking at rank and the teams around the Nats. 

In the NL East  the Nats have successfully passed the Marlins, but the Braves have successfully passed the Marlins and the Nats after a slow start.  Everything is now pretty much where we expected with two of the Mets/Phillies/Braves fighting for the lead with the third disappointing in some way and the Nats over the Marlins at the back end. No surprises. 

In the WC, you have the Padres and Diamondbacks and the 2nd place Mets/Phillies team and then a few surprises. The Giants have made a nice jump into one of the better starts, the Reds might be better than we think. And the Cubs and Brewers have flip-flopped with the Cubs securely in first and the Brewers in the WC mess. The Nats are a step behind these types in with the "non-competitors" but looking better than the dregs

IOW - for a team that did little to improve in the off-season, unsurprisingly they are playing out to be a lot like last year in terms of competitiveness - meaning not very. 

Individually

A month isn't enough to get a good feel of players seasons but it is enough time for extreme outliers to be looked at to wonder if we hadn't gotten anything wrong in the evaluation of them. IOW - while they should feel some reversion, they may be a step or two better/worse than we thought they were and those bounces won't be as large.

While several young players are scuffling, Josh Bell's start is probably the most worrisome as he was set to be the DH for the season. He's simply not hitting the ball hard at all. He has no speed so if he can't hit for power he's a bad singles hitter. He's making up for it a tiny bit by walking more but that can't nearly compensate.  He could be done, not that crazy for DH type closing in on 33, who peaked at merely good and declined last year as well.

A player more likely to be done though is Paul DeJong. While his glove work remains very good he has not been a good hitter in years, and has been actively bad recently. While Bell might not be right in some way, DeJong still sees the ball well enough to make the correct bat/ball contact, but he can't generate enough bat speed to make that matter. 

We should also keep an eye on Nasim Nunez, whose time in the majors has been limited but also has not hit in AAA this year. Given that he's never been a hitter and he's approaching an age where you'd expect a hitter to really shine he may never have the bat to matter in the majors. A mild waste of effort for the team. 

On the positive side Wood's 2025 has begun with a bang. Lots of them. He is not your traditional great hitter, hitting everything well. Rather he swings hard and gets it right enough to have an extremely positive presence at the plate. As he came up the ranks everyone thought he would be good. It's leaning more toward "superstar" after April. 

For our eye-on player Alex Call, while not quite having a full month, is doing very well. A player that has had these stretches in the past and is 30 (31 in September) tends to be less likely to be a break out surprise but we're taking what we can get.  

Ruiz and Abrams (limited time) look good. Crews, Young, Tena (limited time) do not. But these are "come back at the end of May" results, not extreme

 

Pitchers have larger gaps between what has happened (ERA) and what they've done (fancy stats) and less fit in this mold for review, but we'll give it a go. By results Mitchell Parker qualifies as someone who might really be better than expectations. We talked about before why that was unlikely though and his last game basically went as poorly as a Mitchell Parker game can go. Finnegan is good but also is driven by giving up zero home runs without pumping his GB rate or anything.

Instead of these two, I'd lean into Jackson Rutledge, who may or may not be a good reliever but in limited time has shown some flashes and Gore who pitches like an ace enough that you kind of have to believe it can happen. 

On the down side is basically "the pen" with Poche, Sims, Ribalta and Salazar having just terrible results. Poche is gone now and Sims should follow soon. The other guys though could revert to being just "last guy in pen" bad. 

Trevor Williams, Ferrer, Lopez, Henry all have started slow but again pitching needs even more time to right itself so just stick a pin in these results. 

 

The 2026 Picture

Given this is what they are playing for we should take a look at it and it's not so bad. Wood is rounding into a superstar and no young bat you are counting on is super worrisome at the moment. This could change if Crews has a May like April but let's see that happen. Ruiz is hitting which is good given their commitment to him and lack of another option. In the minors House looks good meaning the Nats could probably have a decent line-up in 2026 bc they'd only have to aim for a DH/1B and an OF (or 2 OF if Wood moves to DH). I wouldn't say things look super bright but you can look at the kids here and see a playoff offense next year with some moves

Pitching is murkier. You do like what you see of Gore and there's no reason to think Irvin/Parker/Lord/etc. couldn't hold down the 3/4/5. But the Nats kind of need an ace or at least a 2nd top pitcher and at least at this very early moment, that hasn't found its way to happening. Even worse Cade Cavalli, who has being counted on as a potential answer, could be hurt again. You can look to arms like Sykora and Susana to fill roles in the future but not really for 2026.

Still "one big bat and one ace" would be expensive but should be workable. Doing that an managing to "fix the entire pen" is a lot harder and right now that seems to be where the Nats organization lies. There is no standout here, no help in the minors, and a bunch of arms you are hoping to find usefulness from before looking for quality.  Hopefully May is kinder to Rutledge and Henry and we can reset this 

Overall

Honestly I'd say the Nats are where they should be for a team that didn't try very hard in the off-season and had a questionable, mostly "graduating" bat heavy upper minor leagues. They are going to be about the same this year. They are not going to get organizational pitching help. Whether they get much better relies mostly on kids bats doing a lot more than expected and right now that hasn't happened. 

As for 2026 you want the younger bats doing well and there's enough of that to feel ok. But you also were hoping for some younger surprises early preferably on the mound, and there hasn't been any of that. So the future doesn't seem any brighter, no dimmer either. It's still at the "could compete, will need significant management buy-in in the form of trades/FAs" 

So... on target I guess. Just wish that was this year because it's the same general place they are right now.